Recent decreases in snow water storage in western North America

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | May 22nd, 2023

Mountain snowpacks act as natural water towers, storing winter precipitation until summer months when downstream water demand is greatest. We introduce a Snow Storage Ind

Mountain snowpacks act as natural water towers, storing winter precipitation until summer months when downstream water demand is greatest. We introduce a Snow Storage Index (SSI), representing the temporal phase difference between daily precipitation and surface water inputs—sum of rainfall and snowmelt into terrestrial systems—weighted by relative magnitudes. Different from snow water equivalent or snow fraction, the SSI represents the degree to which the snowpack delays the timing and magnitude of surface water inputs relative to precipitation, a fundamental component of how snow water storage influences the hydrologic cycle. In western North America, annual SSI has decreased (p 

Reduced resilience as an early warning signal of forest mortality

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | October 7th, 2019

Climate-induced forest mortality is being widely observed across the globe. Predicting forest mortality remains challenging because the physiological mechanisms c

Climate-induced forest mortality is being widely observed across the globe. Predicting forest mortality remains challenging because the physiological mechanisms causing mortality are not fully understood and empirical relations between climatology and mortality are subject to change. Here, we show that the temporal loss of resilience, a phenomenon often detected as a system approaches a tipping point, can be used as an early warning signal (EWS) to predict the likelihood of forest mortality directly from remotely sensed vegetation dynamics. We tested the proposed approach on data from Californian forests and found that the EWS can often be detected before reduced greenness, between 6 to 19 months before mortality. The EWS shows a species-specific relation with mortality, and is able to capture its spatio-temporal variations. These findings highlight the potential for such an EWS to predict forest mortality in the near-term.

Rethinking Management of the Colorado River through Lake Powell, Grand Canyon, and Lake Mead

Utah State University | November 15th, 2024

Reviving Central Valley Rivers

CALFED | June 1st, 2003

Scattered tree death contributes to substantial forest loss in California

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | January 20th, 2024

In recent years, large-scale tree mortality events linked to global change have occurred around the world. Current forest monitoring methods are crucial for identifying m

In recent years, large-scale tree mortality events linked to global change have occurred around the world. Current forest monitoring methods are crucial for identifying mortality hotspots, but systematic assessments of isolated or scattered dead trees over large areas are needed to reduce uncertainty on the actual extent of tree mortality. Here, we mapped individual dead trees in California using sub-meter resolution aerial photographs from 2020 and deep learning-based dead tree detection. We identified 91.4 million dead trees over 27.8 million hectares of vegetated areas (16.7-24.7% underestimation bias when compared to field data). Among these, a total of 19.5 million dead trees appeared isolated, and 60% of all dead trees occurred in small groups ( ≤ 3 dead trees within a 30 × 30 m grid), which is largely undetected by other state-level monitoring methods. The widespread mortality of individual trees impacts the carbon budget and sequestration capacity of California forests and can be considered a threat to forest health and a fuel source for future wildfires.

Scenarios of climate adaptation potential on protected working lands from management of soils

Environmental Research Letters (IOP) | September 30th, 2019

Management of protected lands may enhance ecosystem services that conservation programs were designed to protect. Practices that build soil organic matter on agri

Management of protected lands may enhance ecosystem services that conservation programs were designed to protect. Practices that build soil organic matter on agricultural lands also increase soil water holding capacity, potentially reducing climatic water deficit (CWD), increasing actual evapotranspiration (AET) and increasing groundwater recharge (RCH). We developed nine spatially-explicit land use and conservation scenarios (2001–2100) in the LUCAS land use change model to address two questions for California working lands (cropland and rangeland): How does land use change limit opportunities to manage soils for hydrologic climate adaptation benefits? To what extent and where can soil management practices increase climate adaptation on protected working lands? Hydrologic benefits [Σ(ΔCWD, ΔAET, ΔRCH)] due to soil management were simulated in the Basin Characterization Model (a state-wide water balance model) for two Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate models. LUCAS simulated land conversion and new conservation easements with potential for maximum hydrologic benefits. Climate drove differences in lost potential for water benefits due to urbanization (33.9–87.6 m3 × 106) in 2050. Conflict between development pressure and potential hydrologic benefits occurred most in Santa Clara County in the San Francisco Bay Area and Shasta County in Northern Sacramento Valley. Hydrologic benefits on easements were similar in magnitude to losses from development. Water savings from management of California Land Conservation (a.k.a. Williamson) Act contract lands were an order of magnitude greater, totaling over 460 m3 × 106 annually in a drier climate by 2050. Few counties provide most benefits because of soil properties, climate and land area protected. The increase in hydrologic benefits varies by agricultural practice and adoption rate, land use type and configuration, and terms of conservation agreements. The effectiveness of programs designed to improve climate adaptation at county to state scales will likely increase by taking this variability into consideration.

Seasonal variation in total water storage in California inferred from GPS observations of vertical land motion

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | March 12th, 2014

GPS is accurately recording vertical motion of Earth's surface in elastic response to seasonal changes in surface water storage in California. California's mountains subs

GPS is accurately recording vertical motion of Earth's surface in elastic response to seasonal changes in surface water storage in California. California's mountains subside up to 12 mm in the fall and winter due to the load of snow and rain and then rise an identical amount in the spring and summer when the snow melts, the rain runs off, and soil moisture evaporates. We invert the GPS observations of seasonal vertical motions to infer changes in equivalent water thickness. GPS resolves the distribution of change in total water across California's physiographic provinces at a resolution of 50 km, compared to 200 km resolution from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment. The seasonal surface water thickness change is 0.6 m in the Sierra Nevada, Klamath, and southern Cascade Mountains and decreases sharply to about 0.1 m east into the Great Basin and west toward the Pacific coast. GPS provides an independent inference of change in total surface water, indicating water storage to be on average 50% larger than in the NLDAS‐Noah hydrology model, likely due to larger changes in snow and reservoir water than in the model.

Sensitivity of Mountain Hydroclimate Simulations in Variable-Resolution CESM to Microphysics and Horizontal Resolution

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | July 31st, 2018

Snow monitoring at strategic locations improves water supply forecasting more than basin-wide mapping

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | August 15th, 2025

In the Western United States, water supply forecasting has traditionally relied on snow water equivalent measurements at ground-based stations due to their strong correla

In the Western United States, water supply forecasting has traditionally relied on snow water equivalent measurements at ground-based stations due to their strong correlations with streamflow volume during spring and summer. However, stations are sparse and sample a small area, prompting interest in spatially complete – but costly – basin-wide mapping from airborne surveys or future satellite missions. Here we show that adding strategic measurements at snow hotspots – localized areas with untapped information for predicting streamflow – consistently outperforms spatially complete surveys that provide basin-average snowpack, both in basins with and without existing stations. While both improve forecast skill, hotspot monitoring increases correlations with streamflow volume by 11-14% (median) across 390 basins, compared to 4% from basin-wide surveys. These findings hold across snowpack datasets, skill metrics, and statistical models. The greatest gains in water supply prediction come from leveraging existing stations and expanding snow measurements to the right places, rather than everywhere.

State Climate Policy and Nature-based Solutions: A Match that Provides Multiple Benefits for Climate, Water, and More

Stanford University | August 17th, 2022

This report examines potential synergies between state climate policies and nature-based solutions that yield multiple benefits; outlines barriers to meeting that potenti

This report examines potential synergies between state climate policies and nature-based solutions that yield multiple benefits; outlines barriers to meeting that potential; and provides recommendations to accelerate the implementation of nature- based solutions with water benefits in state climate policies. It is not meant to be exhaustive, but to point out areas for further productive work. The audience is non-climate water practitioners working in the Colorado River Basin and state climate policy practitioners who may not be familiar with the opportunities nature-based solutions (NBS) provide for both climate and water. As a result, the report can be considered something of a primer or resource, including basic information about both fields to educate water practitioners as to what state climate plans entail, and to educate climate practitioners about the opportunity to include (and the necessity of including) NBS as part of their climate planning. The report’s intent is to illuminate an area where further engagement and technical work can help seize an opportunity to meet the climate and water challenges facing the Colorado River Basin states.