Global Application of the Atmospheric River Scale

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | January 18th, 2023

Growing human-induced climate change fingerprint in regional weekly fire extremes

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | April 23rd, 2025

Hazard: The Future of the Salton Sea With No Restoration Project

Pacific Institute | May 1st, 2006

The Salton Sea lies on the brink of catastrophic change. The amount of water flowing into the Sea in the next twenty years will decrease by more than 40%, causing

The Salton Sea lies on the brink of catastrophic change. The amount of water flowing into the Sea in the next twenty years will decrease by more than 40%, causing its surface elevation to drop by more than 20 feet, rapidly shrinking its volume by more than 60%, tripling its salinity, and exposing more than 100 square miles of dusty lakebed to the desert’s blowing winds. These changes will cause four major impacts: Human health in the Imperial and Coachella valleys – currently home to more than 400,000 people and growing quickly – will be harmed by the estimated 33% increase in the amount of fine windblown dust in the basin. The Imperial Valley already suffers from the highest childhood asthma hospitalization rate in the state; the growing number of retirees living in both valleys are especially susceptible to poor air quality. Air quality in these two valleys – which already fails to meet state and federal air quality standards – would get much worse, increasing the cost of bringing these areas into compliance. Air quality-related litigation and state liability will increase. California has assumed ultimate responsibility for managing only those lands exposed due to a recent set of water transfers, constituting about half of the estimated 134 square miles exposed in 30 years. Responsibility for managing any dust blowing off the other 60 or so square miles will rest with the individual property owner. However, there is no clear way to determine which lands will be exposed due to the water transfers and which will be exposed due to other actions. Total air quality management costs at Owens Lake have exceeded $400 million. Costs at the Salton Sea could be higher. Many – if not most – of the hundreds of thousands of birds that currently use the Sea will lose their roosting and breeding habitats and their sources of food. The Sea’s fish will be almost entirely gone within a dozen years. Those birds that remain will suffer from disease and the reproductive deformities and failures that plagued the Kesterson National Wildlife Refuge twenty years ago. Some of the endangered and threatened species that use the Sea may be able to find other habitats, but others could suffer significant population losses. The tremendous scale of the Sea adds to its complexity, and the difficulty of finding a viable solution. The Sea currently runs almost 35 miles long, and 15 miles at its widest point, covering about 365 square miles. It has the largest surface area of any lake in California, yet is barely 50 feet at its deepest point. The Sea is 1/3 saltier than the ocean, and, fed by the fertilizers running off of neighboring fields, sustains incredible levels of biological productivity. Until recently, the amount of water entering the Sea was roughly balanced by the amount of water evaporating from its broad surface. Stabilizing the Sea at its current salinity would require the removal of more than four million tons of salt each year, assuming flows to the Sea do not change. But they will change. Under a set of agreements signed in 2003, the Imperial Valley has begun to transfer water to San Diego County, ultimately reducing flows to the Salton Sea. Other actions, including actions in Mexico, will also reduce the amount of water flowing to the Sea, by 45% or more in the next 30-40 years. These changes will dramatically decrease the size of the Salton Sea and the quality of its water. In September, 2003, the California legislature passed a set of laws that implement the 2003 water agreements and provide a 15-year reprieve for the Sea. The legislation offers the prospect of more than $300 million of restoration funds, but it does not guarantee a long-term restoration project for the Salton Sea. California’s Resources Agency will submit a Salton Sea Ecosystem Restoration Plan and related documents to the state legislature by December 31, 2006. The cost of any long-term restoration plan will almost certainly exceed a billion dollars. Although various private-public partnerships have been suggested, funding and implementation of any restoration plan is far from certain, especially given the lack of consensus on a preferred alternative.

HEC-HMS Models for the Sacramento and San Joaquin River Basins Comprehensive Study

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) | August 1st, 2001

Due to several large and damaging flood events on the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers (California) during the 1980s and 1990s, the U.S. House of Representatives

Due to several large and damaging flood events on the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers (California) during the 1980s and 1990s, the U.S. House of Representatives directed the Sacramento District to develop comprehensive plans for flood control for the two rivers and to develop hydrologic and hydraulic models of the river systems. The models will be used to provide better forecasts and evaluations of flood damage reduction alternatives. Additionally, the model results will be used as input for reservoir simulation models. The Sacramento River Basin and the San Joaquin River/Tulare Lake Bed Basins comprise nearly 60,000 square miles, drain California’s Central Valley floor and receive much of their runoff from the Sierra Nevada mountain range. Developing hydrologic models for the tributary basins (which included extremely variable terrain) within a ten month time period was a formidable task. The District contacted the Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC) to assist with the development of these models. HEC used the Hydrologic Modeling System program, HEC-HMS, and introduced the HEC-GeoHMS grid-based technology to perform the hydrologic study. GeoHMS is an ArcView® extension that provides automated subbasin delineation methods and calculates many physical characteristics used for estimation of hydrologic parameters. HEC developed and calibrated 33 individual HEC-HMS models for the major tributaries and portions of the valley floors of the Sacramento River Basin and the San Joaquin River / Tulare Lake Bed Basins. GeoHMS was used to delineate the individual river basins, perform initial subbasin delineation and develop the physical characteristics for the subbasins. Tools within GeoHMS allowed the modelers to iteratively redelineate their subbasins, as appropriate, to meet project needs. Keeping the modeling effort consistent was critical to the success of the study. To ensure this consistency of procedures and results, HEC developed modeling guidelines that each of the 11 modeling teams followed. Once the grid-based HEC-HMS models were developed, HEC contracted with the Corps’ Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory (CRREL) to perform a snowmelt study for the watersheds. HEC provided a gridded precipitation file (4 km2) to CRREL. Through the use of their Distributed Snow Process Model (DSPM), CRREL then provided a gridded snowmelt/ precipitation file to HEC. DSPM computes snowmelt and rainfall depths at the soil surface on a grid-cell basis. This data is used directly by HEC-HMS as precipitation on the watershed. The ModClark rainfall to runoff transformation was used to compute the subbasin hydrographs. HEC-HMS parameter optimization models were developed at hourly flow gages for the unregulated headwater streams. The runoff parameter optimization models allowed the modelers to develop the runoff parameters necessary for the regression analysis. A number of physical characteristics were evaluated for correlation with variations in Clark’s time of concentration, TC, for the optimization models. The results of the regression analysis allowed the modelers to populate the ungaged subbasins with appropriate unit hydrograph parameters. Approximately 200 hourly flow gages and 83 reservoirs were considered in calibrating the models. The 33 individual basin models were then given to the Sacramento District.

Heresy in ENSO teleconnections: Atmospheric rivers as disruptors of canonical seasonal precipitation anomalies in the Southwestern US

Springer Nature | February 7th, 2025

In spite of forecasts for anomalous dryness based on the canonical La Niña signal, Water Years 2011, 2017, and 2023 brought copious precipitation to California and the S

In spite of forecasts for anomalous dryness based on the canonical La Niña signal, Water Years 2011, 2017, and 2023 brought copious precipitation to California and the Southwestern United States (SWUS). Although El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main source of seasonal precipitation predictability for the region, outstanding Atmospheric River (AR) activity produced the unexpected regional wetness in each of these heretical water years (WYs). We define heretical WYs as those that result in precipitation anomalies that oppose those expected based on ENSO canon. We assess the contribution of ARs and other storms to these WYs, finding that heretical La Niña/El Niño WYs were characterized by anomalously robust/deficient AR activity. In California, precipitation accumulation during the heretical La Niña WYs was comparable to or even exceeded that observed during the exceedingly wet WY1998—the textbook canonical El Niño year. Our findings indicate a weaker/stronger relationship between ENSO and AR/non-AR precipitation, primarily driven by storm frequency. Although ARs can disrupt the ENSO-precipitation signal, ENSO still influences the frequency of AR precipitation in the southwestern U.S. desert, the region influenced by ARs that make landfall in Baja California, Mexico. These results highlight the complexity of ENSO's impact on precipitation in the Western US and underscore the need for a nuanced understanding of ENSO’s influence on ARs to improve seasonal precipitation prediction.

High Resolution Measurement of Levee Subsidence Related to Energy Infrastructure in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta

California Energy Commission (CEC) | August 31st, 2018

We assess flood overtopping potential (when flood water elevation exceeds levee elevation) to the levees surrounding the islands in the interior of California's S

We assess flood overtopping potential (when flood water elevation exceeds levee elevation) to the levees surrounding the islands in the interior of California's Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. Because critical natural gas infrastructure is susceptible to overtopping-related disruption, we focus our analysis on regions that are crossed by the network of the state's natural gas pipelines. We use laser scanning data collected during 2015-2016 to estimate subsidence rates since 2007 when an earlier, Delta-wide, airborne laser-scanning topographic dataset was collected. For each levee studied, we combine: (1) the estimated subsidence rate, (2) a conservative range of sea-level rise projections and, (3) an estimate of the 100-year freshwater flood stage to project the time until exceedance of the federal levee height standard (PL84-99). We find that subsidence rates vary from 0-5 centimeters per year (cm/yr) with mean values of ~1-2 cm/year. Local gradients in subsidence can be on the order of cms/yr over a distance of 10s of meters parallel to the levee crests, and these types of gradients are present near some pipeline crossings. The Sherman Island region has subsidence rates close to a factor of 2 greater than other areas considered. Our projections indicate general ranges of exceedance date from about 2060 (fast sea-level rise scenario) to 2080 (slow sea-level rise scenario) with some places projected to exceed threshold by about 2050.

Hydraulic fracturing in faulted sedimentary basins: Numerical simulation of potential contamination of shallow aquifers over long time scales

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | December 12th, 2013

Hydraulic fracturing, used to economically produce natural gas from shale formations, has raised environmental concerns. The objective of this study is to assess one of

Hydraulic fracturing, used to economically produce natural gas from shale formations, has raised environmental concerns. The objective of this study is to assess one of the largely unexamined issues, which is the potential for slow contamination of shallow groundwater due to hydraulic fracturing at depth via fluid migration along conductive faults. We compiled publicly available data of shale gas basins and hydraulic fracturing operations to develop a two-dimensional, single-phase, multi-species, density-dependent, finite-element numerical groundwater flow and mass transport model. The model simulates hydraulic fracturing in the vicinity of a permeable fault zone in a generic, low-recharge, regional sedimentary basin in which shallow, active groundwater flow occurs above nearly stagnant brine. A sensitivity analysis of contaminant migration along the fault considered basin, fault and hydraulic fracturing parameters. Results show that specific conditions are needed for the slow contamination of a shallow aquifer: a high permeability fault, high over-pressure in the shale unit, and hydro-fracturing in the upper portion of the shale near the fault. Undersuch conditions, contaminants from the shale unit reach the shallow aquifer in less than 1000 years following hydraulic fracturing, at concentrations of solutes up to 90% of their initial concentration in the shale, indicating that the impact on groundwater quality could be significant. Important implications of this result are that hydraulic fracturing should not be carried out near potentially conductive faults, and that impacts should be monitored for long timespans. Further work is needed to assess the impact of multiphase flow on contaminant transport along natural preferential pathways.

Hydroclimate volatility on a warming Earth

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | January 9th, 2025

Hydroclimatic Extremes as Challenges for the Water Management Community: Lessons from Oroville Dam and Hurricane Harvey

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | December 31st, 2018

Record-breaking extreme storms were a hallmark of 2017 in the United States. An extremely wet winter on the West Coast and brutally damaging hurricane season in

Record-breaking extreme storms were a hallmark of 2017 in the United States. An extremely wet winter on the West Coast and brutally damaging hurricane season in the U.S. Southeast and the Caribbean challenged communities and power-, water- and flood-management systems in ways that raised climate change concerns. Among the most severe were two periods of heavy precipitation and high runoff that exposed dangerous weaknesses in water management infrastructure and land use practices in California and Texas. In California, a record-breaking string of atmospheric river landfalls and remarkably wet winter conditions came close to causing a catastrophic failure of the emergency spillway at Oroville Dam (France et al. 2018; Abbott 2018; White et al. 2019) and less publicized concerns elsewhere (Holland et al. 2018; CNRFC 2017). In Texas, near record-doubling rainfall accumulations from Hurricane Harvey led to massive flooding (Blake and Zelinsky 2018) and dam safety challenges in Houston (Wax-Thibodeaux et al. 2017). We use these events as examples to ground the concept that attribution studies, with careful management-focused framing, can help water management better navigate such unprecedented extremes. *Chapter from the American Meteorological Society's Explaining Extreme Events of 2017 from a Climate Perspective.

Impacts of ocean acidification on marine organisms: quantifying sensitivities and interaction with warming

Wiley | February 21st, 2013

Ocean acidification represents a threat to marine species worldwide, and forecasting the ecological impacts of acidification is a high priority for science, management, a

Ocean acidification represents a threat to marine species worldwide, and forecasting the ecological impacts of acidification is a high priority for science, management, and policy. As research on the topic expands at an exponential rate, a comprehensive understanding of the variability in organisms' responses and corresponding levels of certainty is necessary to forecast the ecological effects. Here, we perform the most comprehensive meta‐analysis to date by synthesizing the results of 228 studies examining biological responses to ocean acidification. The results reveal decreased survival, calcification, growth, development and abundance in response to acidification when the broad range of marine organisms is pooled together. However, the magnitude of these responses varies among taxonomic groups, suggesting there is some predictable trait‐based variation in sensitivity, despite the investigation of approximately 100 new species in recent research. The results also reveal an enhanced sensitivity of mollusk larvae, but suggest that an enhanced sensitivity of early life history stages is not universal across all taxonomic groups. In addition, the variability in species' responses is enhanced when they are exposed to acidification in multi‐species assemblages, suggesting that it is important to consider indirect effects and exercise caution when forecasting abundance patterns from single‐species laboratory experiments. Furthermore, the results suggest that other factors, such as nutritional status or source population, could cause substantial variation in organisms' responses. Last, the results highlight a trend towards enhanced sensitivity to acidification when taxa are concurrently exposed to elevated seawater temperature.