Quantifying the Eroded and Deposited Mass of Mercury-Contaminated Sediment by Using Terrestrial Laser Scanning at the Confluence of Humbug Creek and the South Yuba River, Nevada County, California, 2011–13

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | October 24th, 2019

High-resolution, terrestrial laser scanning, also known as ground-based lidar (light detection and ranging), was used to quantify the volume of mercury-contaminated sedim

High-resolution, terrestrial laser scanning, also known as ground-based lidar (light detection and ranging), was used to quantify the volume of mercury-contaminated sediment eroded from an outcrop of historical placer-mining debris at the confluence of Humbug Creek and the South Yuba River in the Sierra Nevada foothills, about 17 kilometers northeast of Grass Valley, California, and delivered to a zone below an observed flood stage of the South Yuba River. Substantial quantities of mercury were used and lost to the environment from historical placer gold mining activities on the western slope of the Sierra Nevada, California, and recent studies have documented continued persistence of mercury and methylmercury concentrations in water, sediment, fish, and predatory invertebrates in the Yuba River drainage basin in relation to suspected mercury sources. To identify areas that have high levels of mercury contamination as possible remediation targets in the Yuba River drainage basin and other areas in the Sierra Nevada, the U.S. Geological Survey worked in cooperation with the Bureau of Land Management on this and other detailed studies. Malakoff Diggings, one of the largest hydraulic gold mines in the Sierra Nevada, is 3.5 kilometers north of the study site in the Humbug Creek subbasin. Terrestrial laser scanning was used to produce centimeter-scale, three-dimensional maps of the complex outcrop surface, which was composed of an upper erosional area (cliff and over-steepened slope) and a lower depositional area (colluvial slope). The outcrop could not be mapped non-destructively or in sufficient detail by traditional surveying techniques. The study site, which was approximately 70 meters long, 30 meters wide and 20 meters high, was surveyed four times in 2 years (December 15, 2011; October 25, 2012; January 4, 2013; and November 22, 2013) to determine volumetric differences in the upper erosional and lower depositional areas between surveys. Measured changes in volume for the upper erosional area and lower depositional area were multiplied by the corresponding sediment density so that a mass-balance relationship, between the eroded and deposited sediment during each period, could be used to estimate the amount of mercury-contaminated sediment that was transported to below the base of the colluvial slope, where it could be mobilized by the South Yuba River during a flood having a 5-to-10-year recurrence interval. On December 2, 2012, a flood of this estimated magnitude reached the base of the colluvial slope. Between the first and second surveys (December 15, 2011–October 25, 2012), an estimated mass of 18±9.2 kilograms of sediment was transported from steeper slopes to the gently sloping river bank below the base of the colluvial slope. Between the second and third surveys (October 25, 2012–January 4, 2013), an atmospheric river caused heavy precipitation at the study site during late November and early December 2012. This short-duration, high-intensity rain resulted in a large amount of erosion and deposition at the study site and also caused high streamflow (flood stage) in the South Yuba River. From October 2012 to January 2013, 51±31 kilograms of sediment was transported to below the base of the colluvial slope, that is, below the high-water mark of December 2, 2012. Between the third and fourth surveys (January 4, 2013–November 22, 2013), an additional 10±26 kilograms of sediment was transported to below the base of the colluvial slope. During the 24 months of the study, the total mass of sediment delivered below the base of the colluvial slope and the high-water mark of December 2, 2012, was 79±66 kilograms. In any given year there is a 10–20-percent chance (5-to-10-year recurrence interval) of a flood equal to or greater than that of the December 2, 2012, flood, which could transport mercury-contaminated sediment at the study site into the South Yuba River. Hydraulically modeled estimates of the South Yuba River stage during floods having a 50- and 100-year recurrence interval (2- and 1-percent annual exceedance probability, respectively) indicated that resulting river stages could be 2.2–3.0 meters above the base of the colluvial slope, or 2.2–3.0 meters above the high-water mark of December 2, 2012. Such high river stages would be likely to inundate the lower half of the colluvial slope and mobilize a substantial volume of mercury-contaminated sediment to downstream areas.

Quantifying the Relationship Between Atmospheric River Origin Conditions and Landfall Temperature

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | October 11th, 2022

The temperature of landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) has direct implications for regional water resources. Compared to cool ARs, warm ARs can result in more surface ru

The temperature of landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) has direct implications for regional water resources. Compared to cool ARs, warm ARs can result in more surface runoff and flooding, less water availability via low snow accumulations and enhanced snowmelt, and greater challenges for storm forecasting and reservoir operations. Based on case studies, ARs with subtropical origin locations and warm origin conditions are assumed to be associated with warmer landfall temperatures—though, to date, this has not yet been demonstrated systematically. We analyze North Pacific ARs that made landfall along the West Coast of North America from 1980 to 2017. We find that ARs originating over the subtropical Pacific Ocean near Hawaii (“Pineapple Express”-type ARs) are indeed 1.5°C warmer and 2 kg/m2 moister in winter than ARs originating elsewhere. We extend this analysis for the full study population of ARs by quantifying AR origin conditions, including the spatial distribution of origin temperature, moisture content, and integrated vapor transport (IVT). We use fixed effects multivariate regression to quantify the relative influence of the origin conditions on landfall temperature. Our regression models show that AR origins with lower latitudes, longer AR lifetimes, and stronger IVT are associated with warmer landfall temperatures and that ARs that start warm generally stay warm. We also find that the phase of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation does not exhibit a consistent relationship with AR landfall temperature. Overall, our results partially affirm—yet also complicate—common assumptions about the role of different origin conditions in landfalling AR temperature.

Quantifying the role of atmospheric rivers in the interior western United States

Royal Meteorological Society (RMS) | July 13th, 2012

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) have increasingly been recognized for their contribution to high-impact weather and climate variability. A recent investigation based on observat

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) have increasingly been recognized for their contribution to high-impact weather and climate variability. A recent investigation based on observations located primarily in lowland valleys and basins of the western United States suggests that 10 – 50% of the total cool season (November to April) precipitation between water years 1998 and 2008 occurred on the day of and day following AR landfall (hereafter the AR fraction), as identified using  Special Sensor Microwave Imager data. However, these results are based only on ARs crossing the North American west coast between 32.5◦N and 52.5◦N, which excludes those crossing the west coast of the Baja Peninsula. Here, we identify ARs in the ERA-Interim reanalysis and examine the AR fraction at high-elevation observational sites and in the NOAA/CPC Unified Daily Precipitation Analysis. At high-elevation snowpack telemetry sites, we find good agreement with the AR fraction obtained previously for valley and basin locations. We also show that including ARs crossing the west coast of the Baja Peninsula (as far south as 24◦N) substantially increases the AR fraction over the southwestern United States

Rainfall intensification amplifies exposure of American Southwest to conditions that trigger postfire debris flows

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | June 7th, 2024

Recent warming of landfalling atmospheric rivers along the west coast of the United States

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | May 30th, 2019

Abstract: Atmospheric rivers (ARs) often generate extreme precipitation, with AR temperature strongly influencing hydrologic impacts by altering the timing and magni

Abstract: Atmospheric rivers (ARs) often generate extreme precipitation, with AR temperature strongly influencing hydrologic impacts by altering the timing and magnitude of runoff. Long‐term changes in AR temperatures therefore have important implications for regional hydroclimate—especially in locations where a shift to more rain‐dominated AR precipitation could affect flood risk and/or water storage in snowpack. In this study, we provide the first climatology of AR temperature across five US West Coast sub‐regions. We then assess trends in landfalling AR temperatures for each sub‐region from 1980 to 2016 using three reanalysis products. We find AR warming at seasonal and monthly scales. Cool‐season warming ranges from 0.69°C to 1.65°C over the study period. We detect monthly‐scale warming of >2°C, with the most widespread warming occurring in November and March. To understand the causes of AR warming, we quantify the density of AR tracks from genesis to landfall, and analyze along‐track AR temperature for each month and landfall region. We investigate three possible influences on AR temperature trends at landfall: along‐track temperatures prior to landfall, background temperatures over the landfall region, and AR temperature over the coastal ocean adjacent to the region of landfall. Generally, AR temperatures at landfall more closely match coastal and background temperature trends than along‐track AR temperature trends. The seasonal asymmetry of the AR warming and the heterogeneity of influences have important implications for regional water storage and flood risk—demonstrating that changes in AR characteristics are complex, and may not be directly inferred from changes in the background climate. Plain Language Summary: Atmospheric river (AR) storms are well known for their ability to accumulate snowpack, provide drought relief, and generate extreme precipitation and flooding along the West Coast of the United States. AR temperature is an important variable for determining the water resource impacts of a given event, such as the ratio of rain to snow delivered by an individual storm. As a result, changes in AR temperature have implications for both water storage and flood risk. We find substantial warming in ARs at both the seasonal and monthly scales, as well as seasonal and regional variations in the amount of warming along the US West Coast. To understand the warming of ARs at the landfall regions, we compare these monthly temperature trends with trends in temperature along the AR tracks, background temperature over the landfall region, and temperature over the coastal ocean adjacent to the landfall region. The most robust warming occurs in November and March, which has important implications for increased regional flood risk and decreased water storage, and motivates further investigation in other AR‐prone regions around the globe.

Responses and impacts of atmospheric rivers to climate change

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | March 9th, 2020

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are characterized by intense moisture transport, which, on landfall, produce precipitation which can be both beneficial and destructive. ARs in C

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are characterized by intense moisture transport, which, on landfall, produce precipitation which can be both beneficial and destructive. ARs in California, for example, are known to have ended drought conditions but also to have caused substantial socio-economic damage from landslides and flooding linked to extreme precipitation. Understanding how AR characteristics will respond to a warming climate is, therefore, vital to the resilience of communities affected by them, such as the western USA, Europe, East Asia and South Africa. In this Review, we use a theoretical framework to synthesize understanding of the dynamic and thermodynamic responses of ARs to anthropogenic warming and connect them to observed and projected changes and impacts revealed by observations and complex models. Evidence suggests that increased atmospheric moisture (governed by Clausius–Clapeyron scaling) will enhance the intensity of AR-related precipitation — and related hydrological extremes — but with changes that are ultimately linked to topographic barriers. However, due to their dependency on both weather and climate-scale processes, which themselves are often poorly constrained, projections are uncertain. To build confidence and improve resilience, future work must focus efforts on characterizing the multiscale development of ARs and in obtaining observations from understudied regions, including the West Pacific, South Pacific and South Atlantic.

Sensitivity of Mountain Hydroclimate Simulations in Variable-Resolution CESM to Microphysics and Horizontal Resolution

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | July 31st, 2018

Sharpening of cold-season storms over the western United States

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | January 19th, 2023

Winter storms are responsible for billion-dollar economic losses in the western United States. Because storm structures are not well resolved by global climate models, it

Winter storms are responsible for billion-dollar economic losses in the western United States. Because storm structures are not well resolved by global climate models, it is not well established how single events and their structures change with warming. Here we use regional storm-resolving simulations to investigate climate change impact on western US winter storms. Under a high-emissions scenario, precipitation volume from the top 20% of winter storms is projected to increase by up to 40% across the region by mid-century. The average increase in precipitation volume (31%) is contributed by 22% from increasing area coverage and 19% from increasing storm intensity, while a robust storm sharpening with larger increase in storm centre precipitation compared with increase in storm area reduces precipitation volume by 10%. Ignoring storm sharpening could result in overestimation of the changes in design storms currently used in infrastructure planning in the region.

Shifts in MJO behavior enhance predictability of subseasonal precipitation whiplashes

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | April 28th, 2025

Simulating and Evaluating Atmospheric River-Induced Precipitation Extremes along the U.S. Pacific Coast: Case Studies from 1980-2017

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | January 29th, 2020

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are responsible for a majority of extreme precipitation and flood events along the U.S. West Coast. To better understand the present‐day charac

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are responsible for a majority of extreme precipitation and flood events along the U.S. West Coast. To better understand the present‐day characteristics of AR‐related precipitation extremes, a selection of nine most intense historical AR events during 1980–2017 is simulated using a dynamical downscaling modeling framework based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. We find that the chosen framework and Weather Research and Forecasting Model configuration reproduces both large‐scale atmospheric features—including parent synoptic‐scale cyclones—as well as the filamentary corridors of integrated vapor transport associated with the ARs themselves. The accuracy of simulated extreme precipitation maxima, relative to in situ and interpolated gridded observations, improves notably with increasing model resolution, with improvements as large as 40–60% for fine scale (3 km) relative to coarse‐scale (27 km) simulations. A separate set of simulations using smoothed topography suggests that much of these gains stem from the improved representation of complex terrain. Additionally, using the 12 December 1995 storm in Northern California as an example, we demonstrate that only the highest‐resolution simulations resolve important fine‐scale features—such as localized orographically forced vertical motion and powerful near hurricane‐force boundary layer winds. Given the demonstrated ability of a targeted dynamical downscaling framework to capture both local extreme precipitation and key fine‐scale characteristics of the most intense ARs in the historical record, we argue that such a configuration may be highly conducive to understanding AR‐related extremes and associated changes in a warming climate.