2023 Water Resilience Portfolio Progress Report

California Natural Resources Agency (CNRA) | October 31st, 2023

2024 5-Year Review: Summary & Evaluation of Northern California Steelhead

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) | July 9th, 2024

Many West Coast salmon and steelhead (Oncorhynchus spp.) stocks have declined substantially from their historic numbers and now are at a fraction of their historical abun

Many West Coast salmon and steelhead (Oncorhynchus spp.) stocks have declined substantially from their historic numbers and now are at a fraction of their historical abundance. Several factors contribute to these declines, including: overfishing, loss of freshwater and estuarine habitat, hydropower development, poor ocean conditions, and hatchery practices. These factors collectively led to the National Marine Fisheries Service’s (NMFS) listing of 28 salmon and steelhead stocks in California, Idaho, Oregon, and Washington under the Federal Endangered Species Act (ESA). The ESA, under section 4(c)(2), directs the Secretary of Commerce to review the listing classification of threatened and endangered species at least once every 5 years. A 5-year review is a periodic analysis of a species’ status conducted to ensure that the listing classification of a species as threatened or endangered on the List of Endangered and Threatened Wildlife and Plants (List) (50 CFR 17.11 – 17.12; 50 CFR 223.102, 224.101) is accurate (USFWS and NMFS 2006; NMFS 2020). After completing this review, the Secretary must determine if any species should: (1) be removed from the list; (2) have its status changed from endangered to threatened; or (3) have its status changed from threatened to endangered. If, in the 5-year review, a change in classification is recommended, the recommended change will be further considered in a separate rule-making process. The most recent 5-year review analysis for West Coast salmon and steelhead occurred in 2016. This document describes the results of the 2024 review of ESA-listed Northern California steelhead (NC steelhead). A 5-year review is: • A summary and analysis of available information on a given species; • The tracking of a species’ progress toward recovery; • The recording of the deliberative process used to make a recommendation on whether or not to reclassify a species; • A recommendation on whether reclassification of the species is indicated.

21st century California drought risk linked to model fidelity of the El Niño teleconnection

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | September 3rd, 2018

Greenhouse gas-induced climate change is expected to lead to negative hydrological impacts for southwestern North America, including California (CA). This includes a decr

Greenhouse gas-induced climate change is expected to lead to negative hydrological impacts for southwestern North America, including California (CA). This includes a decrease in the amount and frequency of precipitation, reductions in Sierra snow pack, and an increase in evapotranspiration, all of which imply a decline in surface water availability, and an increase in drought and stress on water resources. However, a recent study showed the importance of tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) warming and an El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like teleconnection in driving an increase in CA precipitation through the 21st century, particularly during winter (DJF). Here, we extend this prior work and show wetter (drier) CA conditions, based on several drought metrics, are associated with an El Niño (La Niña)-like SST pattern. Models that better simulate the observed ENSO-CA precipitation teleconnection also better simulate the ENSO-CA drought relationships, and yield negligible change in the risk of 21st century CA drought, primarily due to wetting during winter. Seasonally, however, CA drought risk is projected to increase during the non-winter months, particularly in the models that poorly simulate the observed teleconnection. Thus, future projections of CA drought are dependent on model fidelity of the El Niño teleconnection. As opposed to focusing on adapting to less water, models that better simulate the teleconnection imply adaptation measures focused on smoothing seasonal differences for affected agricultural, terrestrial, and aquatic systems, as well as effectively capturing enhanced winter runoff.

70 analyte PFAS test method highlights need for expanded testing of PFAS in drinking water

Science of the Total Environment (Elsevier) | April 12th, 2023

n this community-led pilot study we sought to investigate the utility of expanded per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) testing for drinking water, using a targeted

n this community-led pilot study we sought to investigate the utility of expanded per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) testing for drinking water, using a targeted analysis for 70 PFAS and the Total Oxidizable Precursor (TOP) Assay which can indicate the presence of precursor PFAS. PFAS were detected in 30 out of 44 drinking water samples across 16 states; 15 samples would exceed US EPA's proposed maximum contaminant levels for six PFAS. Twenty-six unique PFAS were identified, including 12 not covered by either US EPA Methods 537.1 or 533. An ultrashort chain PFAS, PFPrA, had the highest frequency of detection, occurring in 24 of 30 samples. It was also the PFAS reported at the highest concentration in 15 of these samples. We created a data filter to model how these samples would be reported under the upcoming fifth Unregulated Contaminant Monitoring Rule (UCMR5) requirements. All of the 30 samples with PFAS quantified by the 70 PFAS test had one or more PFAS present that would not be captured if the UCMR5 reporting requirements were followed. Our analysis suggests the upcoming UCMR5 will likely underreport PFAS in drinking water, due to limited coverage and higher minimum reporting limits. Results were inconclusive on the utility of the TOP Assay for monitoring drinking water. The results from this study provide important information to community participants regarding their current PFAS drinking water exposure. In addition, these results suggest gaps that need to be addressed by regulatory and scientific communities, in particular, the need for expanded targeted analysis of PFAS, the development of a sensitive, broad spectrum PFAS test, and further investigation into ultrashort chain PFAS.

A 1,200-year perspective of 21st century drought in southwestern North America

National Academy of Sciences (NAS) | December 11th, 2009

A key feature of anticipated 21st century droughts in Southwest North America is the concurrence of elevated temperatures and increased aridity. Instrumental records and

A key feature of anticipated 21st century droughts in Southwest North America is the concurrence of elevated temperatures and increased aridity. Instrumental records and paleoclimatic evidence for past prolonged drought in the Southwest that coincide with elevated temperatures can be assessed to provide insights on temperature-drought relations and to develop worst-case scenarios for the future. In particular, during the medieval period, ∼AD 900–1300, the Northern Hemisphere experienced temperatures warmer than all but the most recent decades. Paleoclimatic and model data indicate increased temperatures in western North America of approximately 1 °C over the long-term mean. This was a period of extensive and persistent aridity over western North America. Paleoclimatic evidence suggests drought in the mid-12th century far exceeded the severity, duration, and extent of subsequent droughts. The driest decade of this drought was anomalously warm, though not as warm as the late 20th and early 21st centuries. The convergence of prolonged warming and arid conditions suggests the mid-12th century may serve as a conservative analogue for severe droughts that might occur in the future. The severity, extent, and persistence of the 12th century drought that occurred under natural climate variability, have important implications for water resource management. The causes of past and future drought will not be identical but warm droughts, inferred from paleoclimatic records, demonstrate the plausibility of extensive, severe droughts, provide a long-term perspective on the ongoing drought conditions in the Southwest, and suggest the need for regional sustainability planning for the future.

A 10 per cent increase in global land evapotranspiration from 2003 to 2019

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | May 26th, 2021

Accurate quantification of global land evapotranspiration is necessary for understanding variability in the global water cycle, which is expected to intensify und

Accurate quantification of global land evapotranspiration is necessary for understanding variability in the global water cycle, which is expected to intensify under climate change. Current global evapotranspiration products are derived from a variety of sources, including models, remote sensing and in situ observations. However, existing approaches contain extensive uncertainties; for example, relating to model structure or the upscaling of observations to a global level. As a result, variability and trends in global evapotranspiration remain unclear. Here we show that global land evapotranspiration increased by 10 ± 2 per cent between 2003 and 2019, and that land precipitation is increasingly partitioned into evapotranspiration rather than runoff. Our results are based on an independent water-balance ensemble time series of global land evapotranspiration and the corresponding uncertainty distribution, using data from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and GRACE-Follow On (GRACE-FO) satellites. Variability in global land evapotranspiration is positively correlated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The main driver of the trend, however, is increasing land temperature. Our findings provide an observational constraint on global land evapotranspiration, and are consistent with the hypothesis that global evapotranspiration should increase in a warming climate.

A 20,000-year record of ocean circulation and climate change from the Santa Barbara basin

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | October 12th, 1995

MUCH of the evidence for climate-driven fluctuations in ocean circulation during the past 20,000 years has come from studies of the North Atlantic region. The extent to w

MUCH of the evidence for climate-driven fluctuations in ocean circulation during the past 20,000 years has come from studies of the North Atlantic region. The extent to which such interactions have occurred in other ocean basins, and any associated teleconnec-tions between basins, is poorly understood. Here we present high-resolution palaeoclimate and palaeoceanographic records from a 20,000-year sedimentary sequence from the Santa Barbara basin, on the eastern margin of the North Pacific Ocean. The sequence shows oscillations of the benthic environment between low-oxygen conditions (laminated sediments) during periods of warm climate, and higher-oxygen conditions (non-laminated, bioturbated sediments) during cool intervals. Age differences between coexisting benthic and planktonic foraminifers indicate climate-related changes in the age and source-and, hence, oxygen content-of basin bottom waters. Relatively young bottom waters are associated with the cooler intervals and are considered to reflect high proportions of intermediate waters derived from proximal sources. Conversely, older bottom waters are associated with the warmer intervals and were derived from more distal sources. These climate-driven variations in ocean circulation appear to be synchronous with the main ocean-climate fluctuations in the North Atlantic region, suggesting that a tight coupling mechanism operates between the two basins.

A 350,000-year history of groundwater recharge in the southern Great Basin, USA

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | March 31st, 2023

Estimating groundwater recharge under various climate conditions is important for predicting future freshwater availability. This is especially true for the water-limited

Estimating groundwater recharge under various climate conditions is important for predicting future freshwater availability. This is especially true for the water-limited region of the southern Great Basin, USA. To investigate the response of groundwater recharge to different climate states, we calculate the paleo recharge to a groundwater basin in southern Nevada over the last 350,000 years. Our approach combines a groundwater model with paleo-water-table data from Devils Hole cave. The minimum water-table during peak interglacial conditions was more than 1.6 m below modern levels, representing a recharge decline of less than 17% from present-day conditions. During peak glacial conditions, the water-table elevation was at least 9.5 m above modern levels, representing a recharge increase of more than 233–244% compared to present-day conditions. The elevation of the Devils Hole water-table is 3–4 times more sensitive to groundwater recharge during dry interglacial periods, compared to wet glacial periods. This study can serve as a benchmark for understanding long-term effects of past and future climate change on groundwater resources.

A 440-Year Reconstruction of Heavy Precipitation in California from Blue Oak Tree Rings

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | January 10th, 2023

The variability of water year precipitation and selected blue oak tree-ring chronologies in California are both dominated by heavy precipitation delivered during just a f

The variability of water year precipitation and selected blue oak tree-ring chronologies in California are both dominated by heavy precipitation delivered during just a few days each year. These heavy precipitation events can spell the difference between surplus or deficit water supply, and elevated flood risk. Some blue oak chronologies are highly correlated with water year precipitation (r = 0.84) but are equally well correlated (r = 0.82) with heavy precipitation totals ≥25.4 mm (one inch, ≈95th percentile of daily totals, 1949-2004). The blue oak correlation with non-heavy daily totals is much weaker (

A 450-year record of environmental change from Castle Lake, California (USA), inferred from diatoms and organic geochemistry

Journal of Paleolimnology (Springer) | November 11th, 2020

A 39-cm sediment core from Castle Lake, California (USA) spans the last ~ 450 years and was analyzed for diatoms and organic geochemistry (δ15N, δ13C, and C:N), wi

A 39-cm sediment core from Castle Lake, California (USA) spans the last ~ 450 years and was analyzed for diatoms and organic geochemistry (δ15N, δ13C, and C:N), with the goal of determining sensitivity to natural climate variation and twentieth century anthropogenic effects. Castle Lake is a subalpine, nitrogen-limited lake with ~ 5 months of annual ice cover. Human impacts include light recreational use, past fish stocking, and experimental use by the Castle Lake Research Station. The base of the core (below 32 cm; pre mid-1700s) represents the period of maximum ice cover. In contrast, the end of the Little Ice Age (mid 1700s–early 1800s) is dominated by cyclotelloids (mostly Discostella stelligera), indicating significant open-water periods, a condition that persisted into the early 1900s. Cyclotelloids began to decline in the 1960s and were replaced by the Fragilaria tenera grp. (peak in 1970s), succeeded by Asterionella formosa (peak ~ 2010), and accompanied by a reduction in δ15N values and a decrease in C:N that may represent increased atmospheric nitrogen deposition. Another anthropogenic signal was discerned in the core and was interpreted to be the result of an ammonium nitrate fertilization experiment of the epilimnion that was conducted in 1980 and 1981. This signal was manifested in the core largely by a negative excursion in δ15N, possibly caused by fractionation during denitrification in surface sediment. A phytoplankton monitoring dataset collected by the Castle Lake Research Station from 1967 to 1984 corroborates the timing of increased araphid euplanktonic species in the 1970s, and increases in two benthic diatoms (Staurosirella pinnata and Tabellaria fenestrata), entrained in the phytoplankton tows during the experimentation years. Both ice cover and nitrogen addition appear to be strong drivers that affected the lake diatoms, although additional drivers, such as fish stocking and associated cascade effects need further exploration. These data will be helpful for interpreting longer core records from Castle Lake, should the opportunity arise, as well as cores from similar systems in the region.