Projecting groundwater storage changes in California’s Central Valley

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | August 27th, 2018

Accurate and detailed knowledge of California’s groundwater is of paramount importance for statewide water resources planning and management, and to sustain a

Accurate and detailed knowledge of California’s groundwater is of paramount importance for statewide water resources planning and management, and to sustain a multi-billion-dollar agriculture industry during prolonged droughts. In this study, we use water supply and demand information from California’s Department of Water Resources to develop an aggregate groundwater storage model for California’s Central Valley. The model is evaluated against 34 years of historic estimates of changes in groundwater storage derived from the United States Geological Survey’s Central Valley Hydrologic Model (USGS CVHM) and NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (NASA GRACE) satellites. The calibrated model is then applied to predict future changes in groundwater storage for the years 2015–2050 under various precipitation scenarios from downscaled climate projections. We also discuss and project potential management strategies across different annual supply and demand variables and how they affect changes in groundwater storage. All simulations support the need for collective statewide management intervention to prevent continued depletion of groundwater availability.

Projections of declining surface-water availability for the southwestern United States

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | December 23rd, 2012

Global warming driven by rising greenhouse-gas concentrations is expected to cause wet regions of the tropics and mid to high latitudes to get wetter and subtropi

Global warming driven by rising greenhouse-gas concentrations is expected to cause wet regions of the tropics and mid to high latitudes to get wetter and subtropical dry regions to get drier and expand polewards. Over southwest North America, models project a steady drop in precipitation minus evapotranspiration, P−E, the net flux of water at the land surface, leading to, for example, a decline in Colorado River flow. This would cause widespread and important social and ecological consequences. Here, using new simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Five, to be assessed in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Report Five, we extend previous work by examining changes in P, E, runoff and soil moisture by season and for three different water resource regions. Focusing on the near future, 2021–2040, the new simulations project declines in surface-water availability across the southwest that translate into reduced soil moisture and runoff in California and Nevada, the Colorado River headwaters and Texas.

Prolonged California aridity linked to climate warming and Pacific sea surface temperature

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | September 15th, 2016

California has experienced a dry 21st century capped by severe drought from 2012 through 2015 prompting questions about hydroclimatic sensitivity to anthropogen

California has experienced a dry 21st century capped by severe drought from 2012 through 2015 prompting questions about hydroclimatic sensitivity to anthropogenic climate change and implications for the future. We address these questions using a Holocene lake sediment record of hydrologic change from the Sierra Nevada Mountains coupled with marine sediment records from the Pacific. These data provide evidence of a persistent relationship between past climate warming, Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) shifts and centennial to millennial episodes of California aridity. The link is most evident during the thermal-maximum of the mid-Holocene (~8 to 3 ka; ka = 1,000 calendar years before present) and during the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) (~1 ka to 0.7 ka). In both cases, climate warming corresponded with cooling of the eastern tropical Pacific despite differences in the factors producing increased radiative forcing. The magnitude of prolonged eastern Pacific cooling was modest, similar to observed La Niña excursions of 1o to 2 °C. Given differences with current radiative forcing it remains uncertain if the Pacific will react in a similar manner in the 21st century, but should it follow apparent past behavior more intense and prolonged aridity in California would result.

Public Review Draft Report to the Legislature on the Results of the Indoor Residential Water Use Study

Publisher not available | May 11th, 2021

Water planning has always been important for urban retail water suppliers (Suppliers) but is even more critical today, as development progresses and California grapples w

Water planning has always been important for urban retail water suppliers (Suppliers) but is even more critical today, as development progresses and California grapples with frequent droughts and expected long-term climate impacts. Prior to the adoption of the Urban Water Management Planning (UWMP) Act in 1983, there were no specific requirements that mandated urban water suppliers to conduct long-term water resources planning. While many Suppliers did conduct long-term water planning, those that did not were more vulnerable to supply disruptions during dry periods and catastrophic events. Urban water management planning is needed at the local level because only local Suppliers have the knowledge and ability to tailor their planning to their unique conditions and involve their local community in the planning effort. Click here for the DWR press release

Pumping and Ground-Water Storage Depletion in Las Vegas Valley, Nevada, 1955-1974

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | July 1st, 1976

Pure Water Southern California Volume 1 - Draft Enviornmental Impact Report

Metropolitan Water District of Southern California (MWD) | May 14th, 2025

Pure Water Southern California (Pure Water) is a proposed partnership between The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California (Metropolitan) and the Los Angeles Co

Pure Water Southern California (Pure Water) is a proposed partnership between The Metropolitan Water District of Southern California (Metropolitan) and the Los Angeles County Sanitation Districts (Sanitation Districts) to beneficially reuse cleaned wastewater that is currently being discharged to the Pacific Ocean from the Sanitation Districts’ A.K. Warren Water Resource Facility (Warren Facility) in the City of Carson. At full buildout, Pure Water would purify up to 150 million gallons per day (MGD), making it one of the largest programs of its kind in the world. Implementation of Pure Water would provide regional benefits to all Metropolitan member agencies by: (1) reducing reliance on imported water; (2) diversifying locally available supplies; (3) improving resilience to climate change and other stressors; and (4) enhancing operational reliability and flexibility.  This Environmental Impact Report (EIR) assesses the potential environmental effects of Pure Water and was prepared in accordance with the California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) and its implementing guidelines. Metropolitan is serving as the lead agency in preparation of this EIR; the Sanitation Districts are serving as a responsible agency. The EIR is intended to inform governmental decisionmakers and the public about the potential environmental impacts associated with construction and operation of Pure Water, and to identify ways that potentially significant impacts can be avoided or reduced by making changes to the program, selecting an alternative, and/or adopting feasible mitigation measures.  Click here for appendices.

Putting People over Fish: Stopping Radical Environmentalism to Provide Water to Southern California

The White House | January 20th, 2025

Quantification Settlement Agreement and Related Agreements and Documents to which Southern California Agencies are Signatories

California Natural Resources Agency (CNRA) | October 10th, 2003

Quantifying Aspect-Dependent Snowpack Response to High-Elevation Wildfire in the Southern Rocky Mountains

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | September 17th, 2024

Quantifying the Relationship Between Atmospheric River Origin Conditions and Landfall Temperature

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | October 11th, 2022

The temperature of landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) has direct implications for regional water resources. Compared to cool ARs, warm ARs can result in more surface ru

The temperature of landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) has direct implications for regional water resources. Compared to cool ARs, warm ARs can result in more surface runoff and flooding, less water availability via low snow accumulations and enhanced snowmelt, and greater challenges for storm forecasting and reservoir operations. Based on case studies, ARs with subtropical origin locations and warm origin conditions are assumed to be associated with warmer landfall temperatures—though, to date, this has not yet been demonstrated systematically. We analyze North Pacific ARs that made landfall along the West Coast of North America from 1980 to 2017. We find that ARs originating over the subtropical Pacific Ocean near Hawaii (“Pineapple Express”-type ARs) are indeed 1.5°C warmer and 2 kg/m2 moister in winter than ARs originating elsewhere. We extend this analysis for the full study population of ARs by quantifying AR origin conditions, including the spatial distribution of origin temperature, moisture content, and integrated vapor transport (IVT). We use fixed effects multivariate regression to quantify the relative influence of the origin conditions on landfall temperature. Our regression models show that AR origins with lower latitudes, longer AR lifetimes, and stronger IVT are associated with warmer landfall temperatures and that ARs that start warm generally stay warm. We also find that the phase of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation does not exhibit a consistent relationship with AR landfall temperature. Overall, our results partially affirm—yet also complicate—common assumptions about the role of different origin conditions in landfalling AR temperature.