The Coming Megafloods

Scientific American | May 5th, 2013

Huge flows of vapor in the atmosphere, dubbed “atmospheric rivers,” have unleashed massive floods every 200 years, and climate change could bring more of them.

Huge flows of vapor in the atmosphere, dubbed “atmospheric rivers,” have unleashed massive floods every 200 years, and climate change could bring more of them.

The critical role of humidity in modeling summer electricity demand across the United States

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | April 3rd, 2020

Cooling demand is projected to increase under climate change. However, most of the existing projections are based on rising air temperatures alone, ignoring that

Cooling demand is projected to increase under climate change. However, most of the existing projections are based on rising air temperatures alone, ignoring that rising temperatures are associated with increased humidity; a lethal combination that could significantly increase morbidity and mortality rates during extreme heat events. We bridge this gap by identifying the key measures of heat stress, considering both air temperature and near-surface humidity, in characterizing the climate sensitivity of electricity demand at a national scale. Here we show that in many of the high energy consuming states, such as California and Texas, projections based on air temperature alone underestimates cooling demand by as much as 10–15% under both present and future climate scenarios. Our results establish that air temperature is a necessary but not sufficient variable for adequately characterizing the climate sensitivity of cooling load, and that near-surface humidity plays an equally important role.

The demographic decline of a sea lion population followed multi‐decadal sea surface warming

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | June 26th, 2020

The population growth of top predators depends largely on environmental conditions suitable for aggregating sufficient and high‐quality prey. We reconstructe

The population growth of top predators depends largely on environmental conditions suitable for aggregating sufficient and high‐quality prey. We reconstructed numerically the size of a resident population of California sea lions in the Gulf of California during 1978–2019 and its relation with multi‐decadal sea surface temperature anomalies. This is the first multi‐decadal examination of the sea surface temperature of the Gulf of California and of one of its major predators. A three‐decade sustained warming explained the population’s trend accounting for 92% of the variance, including a 65% decline between 1991 and 2019. Long‐term warming conditions started in the late 80s, followed by the population’s decline from 43,834 animals (range 34,080–58,274) in 1991 to only 15,291 (range 11,861–20,316) in 2019. The models suggested a century‐scale optimum sea surface habitat occurring in mildly temperate waters, from 0.18 to 0.39 °C above the 100‐year mean. The mechanistic links of this relation are still untested, but apparent diversification of pelagic fish catches suggests a reduction of high quality prey. We propose this population should be considered vulnerable to any disturbance that could add to the negative effects of the current warm sea surface conditions in the Gulf of California.

The disappearing Salton Sea: A critical reflection on the emerging environmental threat of disappearing saline lakes and potential impacts on children's health

Science of the Total Environment (Elsevier) | February 6th, 2019

Changing weather patterns, droughts and competing water demands are dramatically altering the landscape and creating conditions conducive to the production of wind-blown

Changing weather patterns, droughts and competing water demands are dramatically altering the landscape and creating conditions conducive to the production of wind-blown dust and dust storms. In California, such factors are leading to the rapid shrinking of the Salton Sea, a 345 mile2 land-locked “sea” situated near the southeastern rural border region known as the Imperial Valley. The region is anticipated to experience a dramatic increase in wind-blown dust and existing studies suggest a significant impact on the health and quality of life for nearby residents of this predominantly low-income, Mexican-American community. The discussion calls attention to the public health dimensions of the Salton Sea crisis. We know little about the possible long-term health effects of exposure to mobilized lakebed sediments or the numerous toxic contaminants that may become respirable on entrained particles. We draw on existing epidemiological literature of other known sources of wind-blown dust, such as desert dust storms, and related health effects to begin to understand the potential public health impact of wind-blown dust exposure. The increased production of wind-blown dust and environmental exposures to such non-combustion related sources of particulate matter are a growing health threat, due in part to drought coupled with increasing pressures on limited water resources. Recent population-based studies have linked dust storms with cardiovascular mortality, asthma hospitalization and decrease in pulmonary function in both adults and children. A growing number of studies provide evidence of the acute health effects of wind-blown dust exposures among children, which with repeated insults have the potential to influence respiratory health over time. The shrinking of the Salton Sea illustrates a public health and environmental justice crisis that requires action and attention to protect the health and well-being of local communities.

The drivers and the implications of marine heatwaves

National Academy of Sciences (NAS) | June 24th, 2022

The effect of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation on U.S. regional and coastal sea level

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | June 3rd, 2015

Although much of the focus on future sea level rise concerns the long-term trend associated with anthropogenic warming, on shorter time scales, internal climate variabil

Although much of the focus on future sea level rise concerns the long-term trend associated with anthropogenic warming, on shorter time scales, internal climate variability can contribute significantly to regional sea level. Such sea level variability should be taken into consideration when planning efforts to mitigate the effects of future sea level change. In this study, we quantify the contribution to regional sealevel of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Through cyclostationary empirical orthogonal function analysis (CSEOF) of the long reconstructed sea level data set and of a set of U.S. tide gauges, two global modes dominated by Pacific Ocean variability are identified and related to ENSO and, by extension, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. By estimating the combined contribution of these two modes to regional sealevel, we find that ENSO can contribute significantly on short time scales, with contributions of up to 20 cm along the west coast of the U.S. The CSEOF decomposition of the long tide gauge records around the U.S. highlights the influence of ENSO on the U.S. east coast. Tandem analyses of both the reconstructed and tidegauge records also examine the utility of the sea level reconstructions for near-coast studies.

The Essential Role of Local Context in Shaping Risk and Risk Reduction Strategies for Snowmelt-Dependent Irrigated Agriculture

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | June 11th, 2024

The estimated impact of California’s urban water conservation mandate on electricity consumption and greenhouse gas emissions

Environmental Research Letters (IOP) | January 12th, 2018

In April 2015, the Governor of California mandated a 25% statewide reduction in water consumption (relative to 2013 levels) by urban water suppliers. The more tha

In April 2015, the Governor of California mandated a 25% statewide reduction in water consumption (relative to 2013 levels) by urban water suppliers. The more than 400 public water agencies affected by the regulation were also required to report monthly progress towards the conservation goal to the State Water Resources Control Board. This paper uses the reported data to assess how the water utilities have responded to this mandate and to estimate the electricity savings and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions reductions associated with reduced operation of urban water infrastructure systems. The results show that California succeeded in saving 524,000 million gallons (MG) of water (a 24.5% decrease relative to the 2013 baseline) over the mandate period, which translates into 1830 GWh total electricity savings, and a GHG emissions reduction of 521,000 metric tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents (MT CO2e). For comparison, the total electricity savings linked to water conservation are approximately 11% greater than the savings achieved by the investor-owned electricity utilities’ efficiency programs for roughly the same time period, and the GHG savings represent the equivalent of taking about 111 000 cars off the road for a year. These indirect, large-scale electricity and GHG savings were achieved at costs that were competitive with existing programs that target electricity and GHG savings directly and independently. Finally, given the breadth of the results produced, we built a companion website, called H2Open, to this research effort that allows users to view and explore the data and results across scales, from individual water utilities to the statewide summary.

The Extraordinary California Drought of 2013/2014: Character, Context, and The Role of Climate Change

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | September 30th, 2014

Nearly the entire state of California experienced extremely dry conditions during 2013 (Fig. 2.1a). Statewide, 12-month accumulated precipitation was less than 34% of

Nearly the entire state of California experienced extremely dry conditions during 2013 (Fig. 2.1a). Statewide, 12-month accumulated precipitation was less than 34% of average (Fig. 2.1b), leading to a wide range of impacts. In early 2014, state and federal water agencies announced that agricultural water users in the Central Valley would receive no irrigation water during 2014 (DWR 2014; USBR 2014), and that a number of smaller communities throughout California could run out of water entirely within a 90-day window (USDA 2014a). Low rainfall, unusually warm temperatures, and stable atmospheric conditions affected the health of fisheries and other ecosystems (CDFW 2014), created highly unusual mid-winter wildfire risk (CAL FIRE 2014), and caused exceptionally poor air quality (BAAQMD 2014). Such impacts ultimately resulted in the declaration of a state-level “drought emergency” and the federal designation of all 58 California counties as “natural disaster areas” (USDA 2014b). *From Explaining Extreme Events of 2013 from a Climate Perspective, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95 (9), S1–S96.

The Fifth National Climate Assessment: Report in Brief

U.S. Global Change Research Program | November 14th, 2023