Attribution of declining western U.S. snowpack to human effects

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | December 1st, 2008

Observations show snowpack has declined across much of the western United States over the period 1950–99. This reduction has important social and economic impli

Observations show snowpack has declined across much of the western United States over the period 1950–99. This reduction has important social and economic implications, as water retained in the snowpack from winter storms forms an important part of the hydrological cycle and water supply in the region. A formal model-based detection and attribution (D–A) study of these reductions is performed. The detection variable is the ratio of 1 April snow water equivalent (SWE) to water-year-to-date precipitation (P), chosen to reduce the effect of P variability on the results. Estimates of natural internal climate variability are obtained from 1600 years of two control simulations performed with fully coupled ocean–atmosphere climate models. Estimates of the SWE/P response to anthropogenic greenhouse gases, ozone, and some aerosols are taken from multiple-member ensembles of perturbation experiments run with two models. The D–A shows the observations and anthropogenically forced models have greater SWE/P reductions than can be explained by natural internal climate variability alone. Model-estimated effects of changes in solar and volcanic forcing likewise do not explain the SWE/P reductions. The mean model estimate is that about half of the SWE/P reductions observed in the west from 1950 to 1999 are the result of climate changes forced by anthropogenic greenhouse gases, ozone, and aerosols.

August 2025 Most Probable 24-Month Study

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) | August 15th, 2025

The August 2024 24-Month Study projected the January 1, 2025, Lake Mead elevation to be below 1,075 feet and above 1,050 feet. Consistent with Section 2.D.1 of the Interi

The August 2024 24-Month Study projected the January 1, 2025, Lake Mead elevation to be below 1,075 feet and above 1,050 feet. Consistent with Section 2.D.1 of the Interim Guidelines, a Shortage Condition consistent with Section 2.D.1.a will govern the operation of Lake Mead for calendar year (CY) 2025. In addition, Section III.B of Exhibit 1 to the Lower Basin Drought Contingency Plan (DCP) Agreement will also govern the operation of Lake Mead for CY 2025. Lower Basin projections for Lake Mead take into consideration additional conservation efforts under the LC Conservation Program. The August 2025 24-Month Study projected the January 1, 2026, Lake Powell elevation to be less than 3,575 feet and at or above 3,525 feet and the Lake Mead elevation to be at or above 1,025 feet. Consistent with Section 6.C.1 of the Interim Guidelines, and Section 6.E of the 2024 Interim Guidelines SEIS ROD, the operational tier for Lake Powell in WY 2026 is the Mid-Elevation Release Tier and the water year release volume from Lake Powell is projected to be 7.48 maf. Given the hydrologic variability of the Colorado River System, the actual water year 2026 operations, and being consistent with Section 6.E of the 2024 Interim Guidelines SEIS ROD, the projected release from Lake Powell in water year 2026 may be less than 7.48 maf. The August 2025 24-Month Study projected the January 1, 2026, Lake Mead elevation to be below 1,075 feet and above 1,050 feet. Consistent with Section 2.D.1 of the Interim Guidelines, a Shortage Condition consistent with Section 2.D.1.a will govern the operation of Lake Mead for CY 2026. In addition, Section III.B of Exhibit 1 to the Lower Basin DCP Agreement will also govern the operation of Lake Mead for CY 2026. Lower Basin projections for Lake Mead take into consideration additional conservation efforts under the LC Conservation Program. The 2026 operational tier determinations for Lake Powell and Lake Mead will be documented in the 2026 AOP, which is currently in development. Related scenarios: August 2025 Probable Minimum 24-Month Study August 2025 Probable Maximum 24-Month Study

August 2025 Probable Maximum 24-Month Study

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) | August 15th, 2025

In addition to the August 2025 24-Month Study based on the Most Probable inflow scenario, and in accordance with the Upper Basin Drought Response Operations Agreement (DR

In addition to the August 2025 24-Month Study based on the Most Probable inflow scenario, and in accordance with the Upper Basin Drought Response Operations Agreement (DROA), Reclamation has conducted additional model runs in August to determine a possible range of reservoir elevations. Probable minimum and probable maximum model runs are conducted in January, April, August, and October, or when necessary to incorporate changing conditions. The Probable Minimum inflow scenario reflects a dry hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 90% of the time. The Most Probable inflow scenario reflects a median hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 50% of the time. The Probable Maximum inflow scenario reflects a wet hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 10% of the time. There is approximately an 80% probability that a future elevation will fall inside the range of the minimum and maximum inflow scenarios. Additionally, there are possible inflow scenarios that would result in reservoir elevations falling outside the ranges indicated in these reports. Related scenarios: August 2025 Most Probable 24-Month Study August 2025 Probable Minimum 24-Month Study

August 2025 Probable Minimum 24-Month Study

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) | August 15th, 2025

In addition to the August 2025 24-Month Study based on the Most Probable inflow scenario, and in accordance with the Upper Basin Drought Response Operations Agreement (DR

In addition to the August 2025 24-Month Study based on the Most Probable inflow scenario, and in accordance with the Upper Basin Drought Response Operations Agreement (DROA), Reclamation has conducted additional model runs in August to determine a possible range of reservoir elevations. Probable minimum and probable maximum model runs are conducted in January, April, August, and October, or when necessary to incorporate changing conditions. The Probable Minimum inflow scenario reflects a dry hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 90% of the time. The Most Probable inflow scenario reflects a median hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 50% of the time. The Probable Maximum inflow scenario reflects a wet hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 10% of the time. There is approximately an 80% probability that a future elevation will fall inside the range of the minimum and maximum inflow scenarios. Additionally, there are possible inflow scenarios that would result in reservoir elevations falling outside the ranges indicated in these reports. Related scenarios: August 2025 Most Probable 24-Month Study August 2025 Probable Maximum 24-Month Study  

BasinScout: Water Quantity

Freshwater Trust | January 16th, 2018

California’s Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) establishes milestones that high- and medium-priority basins in a critical state of overdraft must meet to be

California’s Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) establishes milestones that high- and medium-priority basins in a critical state of overdraft must meet to become sustainable. BasinScout can assist managers in building an objective allocation plan that reflects the needs of various stakeholders in shaping how sustainability is achieved.

Bathymetry and Digital Elevation Models of Coyote Creek and Alviso Slough, South San Francisco Bay, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | March 15th, 2018

In 2010 the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center completed three cruises to map the bathymetry of the main channel and shall

In 2010 the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), Pacific Coastal and Marine Science Center completed three cruises to map the bathymetry of the main channel and shallow intertidal mudflats in the southern most part of south San Francisco Bay. The three surveys were merged to generate comprehensive maps of Coyote Creek (from Calaveras Point east to the railroad bridge) and Alviso Slough (from the bay to the town of Alviso) to establish baseline bathymetry prior to the breaching of levees adjacent to Alviso and Guadalupe Sloughs as part of the South Bay Salt Pond Restoration Project. Since 2010 the USGS has conducted twelve additional surveys to monitor bathymetric change in this region as restoration progresses.

Bayesian nitrate source apportionment to individual groundwater wells in the Central Valley by use of elemental and isotopic tracers

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | July 31st, 2016

Groundwater quality is a concern in alluvial aquifers that underlie agricultural areas, such as in the San Joaquin Valley of California. Shallow domestic wells (less tha

Groundwater quality is a concern in alluvial aquifers that underlie agricultural areas, such as in the San Joaquin Valley of California. Shallow domestic wells (less than 150 m deep) in agricultural areas are often contaminated by nitrate. Agricultural and rural nitrate sources include dairy manure, synthetic fertilizers, and septic waste. Knowledge of the relative proportion that each of these sources contributes to nitrate concentration in individual wells can aid future regulatory and land management decisions. We show that nitrogen and oxygen isotopes of nitrate, boron isotopes, and iodine concentrations are a useful, novel combination of groundwater tracers to differentiate between manure, fertilizers, septic waste, and natural sources of nitrate. Furthermore, in this work, we develop a new Bayesian mixing model in which these isotopic and elemental tracers were used to estimate the probability distribution of the fractional contributions of manure, fertilizers, septic waste, and natural sources to the nitrate concentration found in an individual well. The approach was applied to 56 nitrate-impacted private domestic wells located in the San Joaquin Valley. Model analysis found that some domestic wells were clearly dominated by the manure source and suggests evidence for majority contributions from either the septic or fertilizer source for other wells. But, predictions of fractional contributions for septic and fertilizer sources were often of similar magnitude, perhaps because modeled uncertainty about the fraction of each was large. For validation of the Bayesian model, fractional estimates were compared to surrounding land use and estimated source contributions were broadly consistent with nearby land use types.

Bed-Material Characteristics of the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta, California, 2010–13

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | January 9th, 2017

The characteristics of bed material at selected sites within the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta, California, during 2010–13 are described in a study conducted by the U.

The characteristics of bed material at selected sites within the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta, California, during 2010–13 are described in a study conducted by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Bureau of Reclamation. During 2010-13, six complete sets of samples were collected. Samples were initially collected at 30 sites; however, starting in 2012, samples were collected at 7 additional sites. These sites are generally collocated with an active streamgage. At all but one site, a separate bed-material sample was collected at three locations within the channel (left, right, and center). Bed-material samples were collected using either a US BMH–60 or a US BM–54 (for sites with higher stream velocity) cable-suspended, scoop sampler. Samples from each location were oven-dried and sieved. Bed material finer than 2 millimeters was subsampled using a sieving riffler and processed using a Beckman Coulter LS 13–320 laser diffraction particle-size analyzer. To determine the organic content of the bed material, the loss on ignition method was used for one subsample from each location. Particle-size distributions are presented as cumulative percent finer than a given size. Median and 90th-percentile particle size, and the percentage of subsample mass lost using the loss on ignition method for each sample are also presented in this report.

Biological sensitivities to high-resolution climate change projections in the California current marine ecosystem

Wiley | July 28th, 2022

California Simulation of Evapotranspiration of Applied Water and Agricultural Energy Use in California

Journal of Integrative Agriculture (Elsevier) | August 5th, 2013

The California Simulation of Evapotranspiration of Applied Water (Cal-SIMETAW) model is a new tool developed by the California Department of Water Resources and t

The California Simulation of Evapotranspiration of Applied Water (Cal-SIMETAW) model is a new tool developed by the California Department of Water Resources and the University of California, Davis to perform daily soil water balance and determine crop evapotranspiration (ETc), evapotranspiration of applied water (ETaw), and applied water (AW) for use in California water resources planning. ETaw is a seasonal estimate of the water needed to irrigate a crop assuming 100% irrigation efficiency. The model accounts for soils, crop coefficients, rooting depths, seepage, etc. that influence crop water balance. It provides spatial soil and climate information and it uses historical crop and land-use category information to provide seasonal water balance estimates by combinations of detailed analysis unit and county (DAU/County) over California. The result is a large data base of ETc and ETaw that will be used to update information in the new California Water Plan (CWP). The application uses the daily climate data, i.e., maximum (Tx) and minimum (Tn) temperature and precipitation (Pcp), which were derived from monthly USDA-NRCS PRISM data (PRISM Group 2011) and daily US National Climate Data Center (NCDC) climate station data to cover California on a 4 km×4 km change grid spacing. The application uses daily weather data to determine reference evapotranspiration (ETo), using the Hargreaves-Samani (HS) equation (Hargreaves and Samani 1982, 1985). Because the HS equation is based on temperature only, ETo from the HS equation were compared with CIMIS ETo at the same locations using available CIMIS data to determine correction factors to estimate CIMIS ETo from the HS ETo to account for spatial climate differences. Cal-SIMETAW also employs near real-time reference evapotranspiration (ETo) information from Spatial CIMIS, which is a model that combines weather station data and remote sensing to provide a grid of ETo information. A second database containing the available soil water holding capacity and soil depth information for all of California was also developed from the USDA-NRCS SSURGO database. The Cal-SIMETAW program also has the ability to generate daily weather data from monthly mean values for use in studying climate change scenarios and their possible impacts on water demand in the state. The key objective of this project is to improve the accuracy of water use estimates for the California Water Plan (CWP), which provides a comprehensive report on water supply, demand, and management in California. In this paper, we will discuss the model and how it determines ETaw for use in water resources planning.