Taming wildfires in the context of climate change: The case of the United States

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) | January 22nd, 2024

Shifts in climate cycles (e.g., Pacific Decadal Oscillation, El Niño-Southern Oscillation), combined with ongoing changes in drought, temperature and snowmelt, together,

Shifts in climate cycles (e.g., Pacific Decadal Oscillation, El Niño-Southern Oscillation), combined with ongoing changes in drought, temperature and snowmelt, together, have contributed to the overall warmer, drier conditions that fuel extreme wildfires (Environmental Protection Agency, 2022[4]; Kitzberger et al., 2007[10]; Westerling, 2016[11]). The period with the largest increase in area burned coincides with many of the warmest years on record nationwide (Environmental Protection Agency, 2022[4]). Such changes are especially visible in the western United States, where the peak extent of area burned now occurs about one month earlier than just two decades ago. Other factors including longer dry seasons and drier soils and vegetation are increasingly creating the conditions for catastrophic wildfires (Environmental Protection Agency, 2022[4]; US Global Change Research Program, 2018[9]). Wildfires are also further spreading into areas historically unaccustomed to fire, including high elevation areas in the west of the country (Figure 1.2) (OECD, 2023[2]; Alizadeh et al., 2021[12]), which may be less prepared for wildfires and potentially harmed by its impacts.

Technical Guidance for Incorporating Climate Change Information into Water Resources Planning Studies

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) | ?

The impacts of climate change are being felt across the Western United States. Warming is affecting water supplies by changing the overall annual volume of precipitation

The impacts of climate change are being felt across the Western United States. Warming is affecting water supplies by changing the overall annual volume of precipitation and altering the balance of rain versus snowfall. Communities are facing increasing problems with water availability and drought, flooding, and increased risk of forest fires. The requirements established by Secretarial Order 3289, Departmental Manual 523 DM 1, Executive Order 13653, and Reclamation’s Directives and Standards CMP 09-02 for feasibility studies reinforces the need for Reclamation's on-going programs to be more resilient to the impacts of climate change and for continued efforts to incorporate climate change information into aspects of our mission where it has not been fully considered in the past such as in decisions regarding ecosystem restoration, reservoir operations, infrastructure investments and planning capacity. This document is an important step to reinforcing Reclamation’s planning capacity by providing guidance to help study teams navigate the range of planning and technical methods available to account for climate change impacts in feasibility studies. The effects of climate change have altered and will continue to alter the basic assumptions underlying Reclamation’s water resources planning. Effective water management and planning rely on an understanding of climate change impacts on water supply, demand, and criteria that govern or guide water management. The guidance in this document may also be applied to environmental compliance studies since they are typically conducted concurrently with feasibility studies. The guidance is organized around the planning and technical framework for conducting a feasibility study as detailed in CMP 09-02, and which occurs in two phases: the scoping phase and the alternative formulation and evaluation phase.

The 1991 Drought Water Bank

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | January 1st, 1991

This report, produced by the Department of Water Resources, provides a retrospective of the operations of the 1991 Drought Water Bank.

This report, produced by the Department of Water Resources, provides a retrospective of the operations of the 1991 Drought Water Bank.

The 2025-26 Budget: Proposition 4 Spending Plan

Legislative Analyst's Office (LAO) | February 12th, 2025

The Ahwahnee Water Principles

Local Government Commission | July 1st, 2006

In 2004,the Local Government Commission set out to identify effective,least-cost economically and politically viable options for sustainable water resources management at

In 2004,the Local Government Commission set out to identify effective,least-cost economically and politically viable options for sustainable water resources management at the local level. The LGC invited respected water resource policy, management and planning professionals – with experience at the federal,state and local levels – to craft a set of land use principles which would provide guidance to local officials and communities concerned about sustaining future water supplies. The process of developing the Ahwahnee Water Principles mirrored the LGC’s earlier Ahwahnee Principles for Resource-Efficient Communities, which were released in 1991. The Ahwahnee Principles presented a blueprint for elected officials to create compact, mixed-use,walkable,transit-oriented developments in their local communities,and have since paved the way for growing acceptance and inclusion of “smart growth”and the “New Urbanism”in local and regional land-use policies and practices.

The Application of Ground-Water Flow Models as Predictive Tools—A Review of Two Ground-Water Models of Eastern Honey Lake Valley, California-Nevada

Geological Society of America (GSA) | January 9th, 1992

In the late 1980's Washoe County, Nevada, entered into an agreement with a private water development company to develop and export groundwater from the Nevada portion of

In the late 1980's Washoe County, Nevada, entered into an agreement with a private water development company to develop and export groundwater from the Nevada portion of the arid Honey Lake Valley to the rapidly growing Reno-Sparks area. The proposed project is known as the Truckee Meadows Project (TMP). Honey Lake Valley is 35 mi north of Reno, Nevada; but is located predominantly in California. Computer groundwater models of the valley were prepared by the USGS and the TMP proponents and presented to the Nevada State Engineer to evaluate the impacts of the proposed exportation of 15,000 ac-ft annually from eastern Honey Lake Valley. By using assumptions, numbers, and data which are not justified by the scientific data, both models place unreasonable and, in some instances, artificial constraints on the geology and hydrogeology of the groundwater system rather than allowing the geology and hydrogeology to constrain the models. Neither model is useful as a predictive tool. However, the major problems with the two models fall into two fundamentally different classes. The USGS model exceeded the technical limitations of the model code and made large, inappropriate adjustments to the water budget to compensate for these undetected errors. The TMP model used a water budget that was not technically justified or explained and placed the spatial distribution of ground-water recharge and discharge beyond the realm of hydrogeologic reality.  

The California water model: Resilience through failure

Hydrological Processes (Wiley) | March 21st, 2019

No earth resource is more abundant than water, but no other resources is more oversubscribed or a source of greater controversy. California, for example, generates an ave

No earth resource is more abundant than water, but no other resources is more oversubscribed or a source of greater controversy. California, for example, generates an average run-off of 100 km3/year, but the state's ecosystems and parts of its economy have been limited for decades with drought punctuated by years of exceptional rain or snowmelt and flooding. California has nonetheless managed to thrive, with 40 million people, agricultural production exceeding $45 billion/year, and the world's largest economy. Through droughts, floods, and constant tension between environmental protection and economic growth, California has evolved a diverse toolkit for managing its water. But ... is California's model of water management one of the world's greatest successes or instead a history of dismal failures?

The California Water Plan: Projected Use and Available Water Supplies to 2010

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | December 15th, 1983

The case for strategic and managed climate retreat

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | August 23rd, 2019

Faced with global warming, rising sea levels, and the climate-related extremes they intensify, the question is no longer whether some communities will retreat�

Faced with global warming, rising sea levels, and the climate-related extremes they intensify, the question is no longer whether some communities will retreat—moving people and assets out of harm’s way—but why, where, when, and how they will retreat. To the extent that retreat is already happening, it is typically ad hoc and focused on risk reduction in isolation from broader societal goals. It is also frequently inequitable and often ignores the communities left behind or those receiving people who retreat. Retreat has been seen largely as a last resort, a failure to adapt, or a one-time emergency action; thus, little research has focused on retreat, leaving practitioners with little guidance. Such a narrow conception of retreat has limited decision-makers’ perception of the tools available and stilted innovation. We propose a reconceptualization of retreat as a suite of adaptation options that are both strategic and managed. Strategy integrates retreat into long-term development goals and identifies why retreat should occur and, in doing so, influences where and when. Management addresses how retreat is executed. By reconceptualizing retreat as a set of tools used to achieve societal goals, communities and nations gain additional adaptation options and a better chance of choosing the actions most likely to help their communities thrive.

The Changing Nature of Atmospheric Rivers

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | March 15th, 2025

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are expected to strengthen in a warming climate, largely due to the thermodynamic (moistening) effect. Here, we show that this trend is already e

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are expected to strengthen in a warming climate, largely due to the thermodynamic (moistening) effect. Here, we show that this trend is already evident in historical reanalysis data using the AR Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) tier 2 AR detection tools (ARDTs) and variants of our own global AR detection applied to ERA5, MERRA-2, and JRA-55 reanalysis data. Over the 1980–2019 (ARTMIP) and 1980–2023 (variants) periods, total AR area increased by 6%–9%. AR integrated water vapor (IWV) increased by 1.5%–2.5% while integrated vapor transport (IVT) increased by less than 1% and 850-hPa wind speed (|V850|) and vertically integrated moisture flux convergence (VIMFC) both decreased. IWV increases were the most robust overall. All trend magnitudes were sensitive to subsetting, with fixed-frequency subsets consisting of the most intense AR grid points showing larger increases of 3%–4% IVT, 4%–6% IWV, and 6%–10% VIMFC, this last opposing a decreasing AR-mean VIMFC trend likely associated with large area increases. For individual ARs, maximum IVT and IWV increased at ;3–63 and ;1.5–23 the rate of AR-mean values, respectively. Regional changes were often even larger, particularly for extreme events, though most geospatial trends had low detectability under a false discovery rate control framework. Ultimately, despite considerable ARDT and methodological diversity, we found robust consensus moistening and expansion of ARs between 1980 and 2023. However, further research is required to determine the extent to which these trends are affected by reanalysis observational assimilation changes. For example, previous studies indicate that certain reanalyses misrepresent 1980–94 atmospheric moistening and so may underestimate historical AR expansion and intensification rates.