Science and Decision Making: Water Management and Tree‐Ring Data in the Western United States

American Water Resources Association (AWRA) | October 5th, 2009

Growing populations, limited resources, and sustained drought are placing increased pressure on already over‐allocated water supplies in the western United States, prom

Growing populations, limited resources, and sustained drought are placing increased pressure on already over‐allocated water supplies in the western United States, prompting some water managers to seek out and utilize new forms of climate data in their planning efforts. One source of information that is now being considered by water resource management is extended hydrologic records from tree‐ring data. Scientists with the Western Water Assessment (WWA) have been providing reconstructions of streamflow (i.e., paleoclimate data) to water managers in Colorado and other western states (Arizona, New Mexico, and Wyoming), and presenting technical workshops explaining the applications of tree‐ring data for water management for the past eight years. Little is known, however, about what has resulted from these engagements between scientists and water managers. Using in‐depth interviews and a survey questionnaire, we attempt to address this lack of information by examining the outcomes of the interactions between WWA scientists and western water managers to better understand how paleoclimate data has been translated to water resource management. This assessment includes an analysis of what prompts water managers to seek out tree‐ring data, how paleoclimate data are utilized by water managers in both quantitative and qualitative ways, and how tree‐ring data are interpreted in the context of organization mandates and histories. We situate this study within a framework that examines the coproduction of science and policy, where scientists and resource managers collectively define and examine research and planning needs, the activities of which are embedded within wider social and political contexts. These findings have broader applications for understanding science‐policy interactions related to climate and climate change in resource management, and point to the potential benefits of reflexive interactions of scientists and decision makers.

Sea level rise and flooding of hazardous sites in marginalized communities across the United States

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | November 20th, 2025

Sea level rise (SLR) increases the risk of flooding at coastal sites that use and produce hazardous substances. We assess whether socially marginalized populations in the

Sea level rise (SLR) increases the risk of flooding at coastal sites that use and produce hazardous substances. We assess whether socially marginalized populations in the United States are more likely to be impacted by projected SLR-related flooding of hazardous sites that could result in contaminant releases. We identify 5500 facilities at risk of a 1-in-100-year flood event by 2100 under a scenario of continued high greenhouse gas emissions, including coastal power plants, sewage treatment facilities, fossil fuel infrastructure, industrial facilities, and formerly used defense sites. Seven states (Louisiana, Florida, New Jersey, Texas, California, New York, and Massachusetts) account for nearly 80% of projected at-risk facilities. Controlling for population density and county, a one standard deviation increase in the proportion of linguistically isolated households, neighborhood residents identifying as Hispanic, households with incomes below twice the federal poverty line, households without a vehicle, non-voters, and renters is associated with 19-41% higher likelihood of having a site at risk of SLR-related flooding within 1 kilometer (odds ratios [95% confidence intervals]: 1.19 [1.09, 1.31], 1.22 [1.08, 1.37], 1.27 [1.16, 1.39], 1.35 [1.21-1.51], 1.36 [1.21, 1.53], and 1.41 [1.32, 1.52], respectively). Results elucidate the need for disaster planning, land-use decision-making, as well as mitigation strategies that address the inequitable hazards and potential health threats posed by SLR.

Sea level rise and the drivers of daily water levels in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | December 17th, 2023

Sea Level Rise Impacts on Wastewater Treatment Systems Along the U.S. Coasts

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | April 13th, 2018

Wastewater treatment plants are susceptible to flooding resulting from sea level rise. Previous estimates of wastewater exposure have only considered the impacts of mar

Wastewater treatment plants are susceptible to flooding resulting from sea level rise. Previous estimates of wastewater exposure have only considered the impacts of marine flooding at the local or regional scale. In this analysis, we quantify the exposure to marine flooding across the coastal United States and then consider the relative impacts of marine and groundwater flooding at the regional scale in the San Francisco Bay Area. We also estimate the number of people who may lose access to wastewater services if no actions are taken to prevent flooding at wastewater treatment plants. We find that the number of people impacted by sea level rise due to loss of wastewater services could be five times as high as previous predictions of the number of people who experience direct flooding of their homes or property. We also find that groundwater flooding poses a significant threat to wastewater plants in the San Francisco Bay region.

Sea Level Rise in California

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | February 29th, 2024

Sea Level Rise Vulnerability Study for the City of Los Angeles

University of Southern California Sea Grant Program | December 31st, 2013

Climate change is expected to usher in an era of higher temperatures, increased precipitation and/or severe drought, and increased rates of sea level rise around

Climate change is expected to usher in an era of higher temperatures, increased precipitation and/or severe drought, and increased rates of sea level rise around the world. According to the National Research Council (NRC), global sea level has risen at an increasing rate since the late 19th / early 20th Century, when global temperatures first started to rise. Climate researchers believe sea level rise will drive storm surge and wave run-up higher than current conditions, thereby causing more extensive and frequent coastal, storm-driven flooding. Sea level rise in Los Angeles is expected to match global projections over the next century with anincrease of 0.1 - 0.6 meters (m), or 0.3 - 2.0 feet (ft), from 2000 - 2050 and 0.4 - 1.7 m (or 1.3 - 5.6 ft) from 2000 - 2100 (NRC 2012). Tides, wave-driven run-up, and storm surge play critical roles in coastal flooding in Southern California, especially when big wave storms occur at or near peak high tides. Sea level rise will potentially exacerbate the damage from these events.

Sea Level Variations of the United States 1854–2006

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) | December 19th, 2009

The United States National Water Level Network (NWLON) was established in the 19th Century to ensure the Nation’s nautical charts, shoreline maps, and elevations relat

The United States National Water Level Network (NWLON) was established in the 19th Century to ensure the Nation’s nautical charts, shoreline maps, and elevations relative to homes, levees, and other coastal infrastructure were accurately referenced to sea level. In support of this mission, NOAA’s Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services and its predecessors have determined sea level for the United States since the mid 19th Century. While climate change was not a concern during the mid-1800s, the accurate determination of sea level was critical for navigation and marine boundary determination. To meet these important requirements, technology, procedures, and processes were developed to the highest scientific and engineering standards. At the turn of the 20th Century it was realized that there was a need to account for a rise in sea level and the first National Tidal Datum Epoch was established. Today this Epoch is updated every 20 to 25 years. The Supreme Court recognized these standards and procedures in the landmark 1936 case of Borax, Ltd v. City of Los Angeles when legally defining sea level. Due to those initial efforts and the continued dedication of those charged with the responsibility for monitoring sea level for the United States, we can accurately determine relative (local) mean sea level along the Nation’s coastline today. These observations also play an important role in monitoring change in global sea level. As we monitor change in sea level into the 21st Century, the statement made by Alexander Dallas Bache, the Second Superintendent of the Coast Survey, is as relevant today as when it was stated more than 150 years ago, “It seems a very simple task to make correct tidal observations; but, in all my experience, I have found no observations which require such constant care and attention” (1854). Michael Szabados, Director, Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services

Sea-Level Rise for the Coasts of California, Oregon, and Washington: Past, Present, and Future

National Academy of Sciences (NAS) | December 13th, 2012

Sea-level rise impacts on seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers: Review and integration

Journal of Hydrology (Elsevier) | February 6th, 2016

Sea-level rise (SLR) influences groundwater hydraulics and in particular seawater intrusion (SWI) in many coastal aquifers. The quantification of the combined and relativ

Sea-level rise (SLR) influences groundwater hydraulics and in particular seawater intrusion (SWI) in many coastal aquifers. The quantification of the combined and relative impacts of influential factors on SWI has not previously been considered in coastal aquifers. In the present study, a systematic review of the available literature on this topic is first provided. Then, the potential remaining challenges are scrutinized. Open questions on the effects of more realistic complexities such as gradual SLR, parameter uncertainties, and the associated influences in decision-making models are issues requiring further investigation. We assess and quantify the seawater toe location under the impacts of SLR in combination with recharge rate variations, land-surface inundation (LSI) due to SLR, aquifer bed slope variation, and changing landward boundary conditions (LWBCs). This is the first study to include all of these factors in a single analysis framework. Both analytical and numerical models are used for these sensitivity assessments. It is demonstrated that (1) LSI caused by SLR has a significant incremental impact on the seawater toe location, especially in the flatter coasts and the flux-controlled (FC) LWBCs, however this impact is less than the reported orders of magnitude differences which were estimated using only analytical solutions; (2) LWBCs significantly influence the SLR impacts under almost all conditions considered in this study; (3) The main controlling factors of seawater toe location are the magnitudes of fresh groundwater discharge to sea and recharge rate. Regional freshwater flux entering from the landward boundary and the groundwater hydraulic gradient are the major contributors of fresh groundwater discharge to sea for both FC and head-controlled (HC) systems, respectively; (4) A larger response of the aquifer and larger seawater toe location changes are demonstrable for a larger ratio of the aquifer thickness to the aquifer length particularly in the HC systems; (5) The lowest sensitivity of seawater toe location is found for the density difference ratio of the seawater and freshwater, and also for the aquifer bed slope; (6) The early-time observations show seawater fingers below the inundated lands due to SLR which are diminished and ultimately extinguished; and (7) A less than 2% reversal effect on the seawater toe location after overshoot mechanism is observed in the transient simulations which suggests that this mechanism is an insignificant and impractical factor compared to other more significant factors.

Seasonal Peak Snow Predictability Derived From Early-Season Snow in North America

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | September 12th, 2023

Early season snow observations show promise in predicting peak snow water equivalent in locations where large-scale ocean-atmosphere patterns similarly influence fall and

Early season snow observations show promise in predicting peak snow water equivalent in locations where large-scale ocean-atmosphere patterns similarly influence fall and winter conditions, and in northern maritime locations where winter temperatures are warm enough that rain on snow and midwinter melt occur.