Shoreline retreat and beach nourishment are projected to increase in Southern California

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | May 22nd, 2024

Sandy beaches in Southern California are experiencing rising coastal erosion due to changes in precipitation patterns and urban growth. As a result, beach nourishment is

Sandy beaches in Southern California are experiencing rising coastal erosion due to changes in precipitation patterns and urban growth. As a result, beach nourishment is necessary for mitigation. In our study, we forecast the rates of shoreline retreat and the required volumes of sand nourishment to mitigate it for the coming decades. We employ photogrammetric multi-decadal shoreline positioning and Digital Shoreline Analysis System methods to measure and predict the coastal evolution of the Gulf of Santa Catalina in Southern California. This region is hypothesized to be globally representative of other semi-arid sandy coasts facing similar hydroclimatic and anthropogenic challenges. Our findings indicate that Southern California’s shoreline retreat rates for sandy beaches will increase from the present average value of ~−1.45 to −2.12 meters per year in 2050 and to −3.18 meters per year in 2100. Consequently, the annual volume of sand required for beach nourishment could triple by 2050, increasing from the present-day amount of ~1223 to ~3669 cubic meters per year per kilometer. However, the associated cost for this nourishment will grow five times, exacerbating several coastal communities’ economic and logistical pressures. Similar trends are emerging globally, with semi-arid developing nations already grappling with coastal hazards and may struggle to manage the escalating costs of curbing beach nourishment.

Sierra Nevada Regional Report - California’s Fourth Climate Change Assessment

California Natural Resources Agency (CNRA) | August 16th, 2018

The Sierra Nevada region is critical to the environment and economy of California. Its places and peoples provide essential natural resources including fresh wate

The Sierra Nevada region is critical to the environment and economy of California. Its places and peoples provide essential natural resources including fresh water, clean power, working lands, and famous wilderness. The region encompasses tremendous geographical, climatological, and ecological diversity that spans majestic mountains to deep desert basins. The climate consists of cool, wet winters and warm, dry summers with large differences due to latitude (e.g., the southern Sierra is snowier than northern Sierra) and topography (e.g., the Westside is wetter than the Eastside). Variability is another notable feature of the climate with the region experiencing some of the largest year-to-year climatic fluctuations in the United States. Herein we summarize our assessment of climate-change vulnerabilities and adaptation actions in the region.

Significant challenges to the sustainability of the California coast considering climate change

National Academy of Sciences (NAS) | July 29th, 2024

Simplified 1-D Hydrodynamic and Salinity Transport Modeling of the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta: Sea Level Rise and Water Diversion Effects

University of California, Davis (UC Davis) | December 11th, 2013

Simulating and Evaluating Atmospheric River-Induced Precipitation Extremes along the U.S. Pacific Coast: Case Studies from 1980-2017

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | January 29th, 2020

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are responsible for a majority of extreme precipitation and flood events along the U.S. West Coast. To better understand the present‐day charac

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are responsible for a majority of extreme precipitation and flood events along the U.S. West Coast. To better understand the present‐day characteristics of AR‐related precipitation extremes, a selection of nine most intense historical AR events during 1980–2017 is simulated using a dynamical downscaling modeling framework based on the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. We find that the chosen framework and Weather Research and Forecasting Model configuration reproduces both large‐scale atmospheric features—including parent synoptic‐scale cyclones—as well as the filamentary corridors of integrated vapor transport associated with the ARs themselves. The accuracy of simulated extreme precipitation maxima, relative to in situ and interpolated gridded observations, improves notably with increasing model resolution, with improvements as large as 40–60% for fine scale (3 km) relative to coarse‐scale (27 km) simulations. A separate set of simulations using smoothed topography suggests that much of these gains stem from the improved representation of complex terrain. Additionally, using the 12 December 1995 storm in Northern California as an example, we demonstrate that only the highest‐resolution simulations resolve important fine‐scale features—such as localized orographically forced vertical motion and powerful near hurricane‐force boundary layer winds. Given the demonstrated ability of a targeted dynamical downscaling framework to capture both local extreme precipitation and key fine‐scale characteristics of the most intense ARs in the historical record, we argue that such a configuration may be highly conducive to understanding AR‐related extremes and associated changes in a warming climate.

Simulation of Groundwater and Surface-Water Resources of the Santa Rosa Plain Watershed, Sonoma County, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | April 25th, 2014

Water managers in the Santa Rosa Plain face the challenge of meeting increasing water demand with a combination of Russian River water, which has uncertainties in its fut

Water managers in the Santa Rosa Plain face the challenge of meeting increasing water demand with a combination of Russian River water, which has uncertainties in its future availability; local groundwater resources; and ongoing and expanding recycled water and water from other conservation programs. To address this challenge, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Sonoma County Water Agency, the cities of Cotati, Rohnert Park, Santa Rosa, and Sebastopol, the town of Windsor, the California American Water Company, and the County of Sonoma, undertook development of a fully coupled groundwater and surface-water model to better understand and to help manage the hydrologic resources in the Santa Rosa Plain watershed. The purpose of this report is to (1) describe the construction and calibration of the fully coupled groundwater and surface-water flow model for the Santa Rosa Plain watershed, referred to as the Santa Rosa Plain hydrologic model; (2) present results from simulation of the Santa Rosa Plain hydrologic model, including water budgets, recharge distributions, streamflow, and the effect of pumping on water-budget components; and (3) present the results from using the model to evaluate the potential hydrologic effects of climate change and variability without pumpage for water years 2011–99 and with projected pumpage for water years 2011–40.

Sniffing the Delta for Greenhouse Gases

San Francisco Estuary Partnership (SFEP) | June 16th, 2022

Global food production contributes an estimated 21% to 37% of the greenhouse gases that are warming the planet, including huge releases of carbon when vast aquatic ecosys

Global food production contributes an estimated 21% to 37% of the greenhouse gases that are warming the planet, including huge releases of carbon when vast aquatic ecosystems like the Delta are transformed for agriculture. [Dennis] Baldocchi and colleagues are now trying to figure out if bringing back tidal wetlands like the one at Dutch Slough can help reverse these processes.

Snowmelt risk telecouplings for irrigated agriculture

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | October 31st, 2022

Climate change is altering the timing and magnitude of snowmelt, which may either directly or indirectly via global trade affect agriculture and livelihoods dependent on

Climate change is altering the timing and magnitude of snowmelt, which may either directly or indirectly via global trade affect agriculture and livelihoods dependent on snowmelt. Here, we integrate subannual irrigation and snowmelt dynamics and a model of international trade to assess the global redistribution of snowmelt dependencies and risks under climate change. We estimate that 16% of snowmelt used for irrigation is for agricultural products traded globally, of which over 70% is from five countries. Globally, we observe a prodigious snowmelt dependence and risk diffusion, with particularly evident importing of products at risk in western Europe. In Germany and the UK, local fraction of surface-water-irrigated agriculture supply exposed to snowmelt risks could increase from negligible to 16% and 10%, respectively, under a 2 °C warming. Our results reveal the trade-exposure of agricultural supplies, highlighting regions and crops whose consumption may be vulnerable to changing snowmelt even if their domestic production is not.

Social and economic impacts of climate

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | August 9th, 2016

For centuries, thinkers have considered whether and how climatic conditions—such as temperature, rainfall, and violent storms—influence the nature of societies and th

For centuries, thinkers have considered whether and how climatic conditions—such as temperature, rainfall, and violent storms—influence the nature of societies and the performance of economies. A multidisciplinary renaissance of quantitative empirical research is illuminating important linkages in the coupled climate-human system. We highlight key methodological innovations and results describing effects of climate on health, economics, conflict, migration, and demographics. Because of persistent “adaptation gaps,” current climate conditions continue to play a substantial role in shaping modern society, and future climate changes will likely have additional impact. For example, we compute that temperature depresses current U.S. maize yields by ~48%, warming since 1980 elevated conflict risk in Africa by ~11%, and future warming may slow global economic growth rates by ~0.28 percentage points per year. In general, we estimate that the economic and social burden of current climates tends to be comparable in magnitude to the additional projected impact caused by future anthropogenic climate changes. Overall, findings from this literature point to climate as an important influence on the historical evolution of the global economy, they should inform how we respond to modern climatic conditions, and they can guide how we predict the consequences of future climate changes.

Social Vulnerability to Climate Change in California

California Energy Commission (CEC) | July 31st, 2012

The State of California faces a range of impacts from global climate change, including increases in extreme heat, wildfires, coastal flooding, and erosion. Changes are al

The State of California faces a range of impacts from global climate change, including increases in extreme heat, wildfires, coastal flooding, and erosion. Changes are also likely to occur in air quality, water availability, and the spread of infectious diseases. To date, a great deal of research has been done to forecast the physical effects of climate change, while less attention has been given to the factors that make different populations more or less vulnerable to harm from such changes. While disaster events may not discriminate, impacts on human populations are shaped by intervening conditions that determine the human impact of the event and the specific needs for preparedness, response, and recovery. In this study, the authors analyzed the potential impacts of climate change by using recent downscaled climate model outputs to create a variety of statistics and visualizations that show their distribution across the state. To understand how the population exposed to these impacts will be affected, social vulnerability – defined as the susceptibility of a given population to harm from exposure to a hazard, directly affecting its ability to prepare for, respond to, and recover, must be evaluated. The researchers developed a new climate vulnerability index to indicate the social vulnerability of a region’s population to climate?related harm. The index combines 19 indicators into one overall climate vulnerability score and includes factors specifically related to climate impacts, such as air conditioner ownership, childhood obesity, percentage of tree cover, pre?term births, workers in outdoor occupations, and others. The authors present a series of maps showing where social vulnerability to climate change is greatest, and where it intersects with the most severe projected climate change impacts. The most significant risk from climate change occurs where there are large groups of people exposed to a climate?related hazard and where there is high social vulnerability. Understanding vulnerability factors and the populations that exhibit these factors are critical for crafting effective climate change policies and response strategies. They are also important to the emerging study of climate justice, which is the concept that no group of people should disproportionately bear the burden of climate impacts or the costs of mitigation and adaptation.