Seasonality of Retreat Rate of a Wave-Exposed Marsh Edge

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | July 10th, 2024

Waves can cause destruction of marshlands when they collide with the boundary of the marsh area. We studied how the speed of marsh loss from waves can change between seas

Waves can cause destruction of marshlands when they collide with the boundary of the marsh area. We studied how the speed of marsh loss from waves can change between seasons with different climates. To do this we made five 3D models of a marsh in South San Francisco Bay over a single year and looked at their differences between summer/fall/winter/spring. We found fast marsh loss in the seasons where daily winds are common (spring/summer), and minor changes in seasons with storms but without daily winds (fall/winter). Across our entire marsh, we saw lots of variety in how much it was changing, including some addition (i.e., positive change) to the mudflats near the marsh in the fall/winter. When we compared the marsh loss over one year to what was lost between 2004 and 2019, the speeds were similar, so we believe our study period was similar to long‐term marsh dynamics. This work encourages incorporating different seasonal climates into expectations of how marshes evolve, and supports that we need to think about marshes and mudflats as connected in how they change over time.

Sediment Supply to San Francisco Bay, Water Years 1995 through 2016: Data, trends, and monitoring recommendations to support decisions about water quality, tidal wetlands, and resilience to sea level rise

San Francisco Estuary Institute (SFEI) | June 11th, 2018

Knowledge of the status and trends of sediment supply to San Francisco Bay is critically important for management decisions about dredging, marsh restoration, flood contr

Knowledge of the status and trends of sediment supply to San Francisco Bay is critically important for management decisions about dredging, marsh restoration, flood control, contaminants, water clarity (in relation to primary production), and sea level rise. Several site-specific studies of sediment supply to San Francisco Bay have been conducted, but no synthesis of recent studies is available. The purpose of this report is to synthesize the best available data and knowledge to answer a few of the key study questions related to sediment supply to the Bay (listed below). This synthesis report was prepared jointly by the Regional Monitoring Program for Water Quality in San Francisco Bay (RMP) and the U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) with funding from both organizations. The project is meant to be a step in the development of a more comprehensive sediment management and monitoring strategy for the Bay.

Sediment Supply to San Francisco Bay, Water Years 1995 through 2016: Data, trends, and monitoring recommendations to support decisions about water quality, tidal wetlands, and resilience to sea level rise

San Francisco Estuary Institute (SFEI) | June 11th, 2018

Knowledge of the status and trends of sediment supply to San Francisco Bay is critically important for management decisions about dredging, marsh restoration, flood contr

Knowledge of the status and trends of sediment supply to San Francisco Bay is critically important for management decisions about dredging, marsh restoration, flood control, contaminants, water clarity (in relation to primary production), and sea level rise. Several site-specific studies of sediment supply to San Francisco Bay have been conducted, but no synthesis of recent studies is available. The purpose of this report is to synthesize the best available data and knowledge to answer a few of the key study questions related to sediment supply to the Bay.  This synthesis report was prepared jointly by the Regional Monitoring Program for Water Quality in San Francisco Bay (RMP) and the U. S. Geological Survey (USGS) with funding from both organizations. The project is meant to be a step in the development of a more comprehensive sediment management and monitoring strategy for the Bay. 

Sensitivity of Mountain Hydroclimate Simulations in Variable-Resolution CESM to Microphysics and Horizontal Resolution

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | July 31st, 2018

Severe sustained drought revisited managing the Colorado River system in times of water shortage 25 years later—Part II

American Water Resources Association (AWRA) | December 4th, 2022

Sharpening of cold-season storms over the western United States

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | January 19th, 2023

Winter storms are responsible for billion-dollar economic losses in the western United States. Because storm structures are not well resolved by global climate models, it

Winter storms are responsible for billion-dollar economic losses in the western United States. Because storm structures are not well resolved by global climate models, it is not well established how single events and their structures change with warming. Here we use regional storm-resolving simulations to investigate climate change impact on western US winter storms. Under a high-emissions scenario, precipitation volume from the top 20% of winter storms is projected to increase by up to 40% across the region by mid-century. The average increase in precipitation volume (31%) is contributed by 22% from increasing area coverage and 19% from increasing storm intensity, while a robust storm sharpening with larger increase in storm centre precipitation compared with increase in storm area reduces precipitation volume by 10%. Ignoring storm sharpening could result in overestimation of the changes in design storms currently used in infrastructure planning in the region.

Shifting Baselines in a California Oak Savanna: Nineteenth Century Data to Inform Restoration Scenarios

Restoration Ecology, Society for Ecological Restoration (SER) | January 6th, 2011

For centuries humans have reduced and transformed Mediterranean‐climate oak woodland and savanna ecosystems, making it difficult to establish credible baselines for eco

For centuries humans have reduced and transformed Mediterranean‐climate oak woodland and savanna ecosystems, making it difficult to establish credible baselines for ecosystem structure and composition that can guide ecological restoration efforts. We combined historical data sources, with particular attention to mid‐1800s General Land Office witness tree records and maps and twentieth century air photos, to reconstruct 150 years of decline in extent and stand density of Valley oak (Quercus lobata Neé) woodlands and savannas in the Santa Clara Valley of central coastal California. Nineteenth century Valley oak woodlands here were far more extensive and densely stocked than early twentieth century air photos would suggest, although reconstructed basal areas (7.5 m2/ha) and densities (48.9 trees/ha) were not outside the modern range reported for this ecosystem type. Tree densities and size distribution varied across the landscape in relation to soil and topography, and trees in open savannas were systematically larger than those in denser woodlands. For the largest woodland stand, we estimated a 99% decline in population from the mid‐1800s to the 1930s. Although most of the study area is now intensely developed, Valley oaks could be reintroduced in urban and residential areas as well as in surrounding rangelands at densities comparable to the native oak woodlands and savannas, thereby restoring aspects of ecologically and culturally significant ecosystems, including wildlife habitat and genetic connectivity within the landscape.

Shifting shores: Marsh expansion and retreat in San Pablo Bay

San Francisco Estuary Institute (SFEI) | June 30th, 2015

As sea level rise accelerates, our shores will be increasingly vulnerable to erosion. Particular concern centers around the potential loss of San Francisco Bay’s much-v

As sea level rise accelerates, our shores will be increasingly vulnerable to erosion. Particular concern centers around the potential loss of San Francisco Bay’s much-valued tidal marshes, which provide natural flood protection to our shorelines, habitat for native wildlife, and many other ecosystem services. Addressing this concern, this study is the first systematic analysis of the rates of marsh retreat and expansion over time for San Pablo Bay, located in the northern part of San Francisco Bay. Key findings: • Over the past two decades, more of the marshes in San Pablo Bay have expanded (35% by length) than retreated (6%). • Some areas have been expanding for over 150 years. • Some marsh edges that appear to be retreating are in fact expanding rapidly at rates of up to 8 m/yr. • Marsh edge change may be a useful indicator of resilience, identifying favorable sites for marsh persistence. • These data can provide a foundation for understanding drivers of marsh edge expansion and retreat such as wind direction, wave energy, watershed sediment supply, and mudflat shape. • This understanding of system dynamics will help inform management decisions about marsh restoration and protection. • This study provides a baseline and method for tracking marsh edge response to current and future conditions, particularly anticipated changes in sea level, wave energy, and sediment supply. Recommended next steps: • This pilot study for San Pablo Bay marshes should be extended to other marshes in San Francisco Bay. • These initial marsh expansion and retreat findings should be further analyzed and interpreted to improve our understanding of system drivers and identify management responses. • A program for repeated assessment should be developed to identify and track changes in shoreline position, a leading indicator of the likelihood marsh survival.

Shifts in MJO behavior enhance predictability of subseasonal precipitation whiplashes

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | April 28th, 2025

Shifts in the thermal niche of almond under climate change

Climatic Change (Springer) | December 5th, 2017

Delineating geographic shifts in crop cultivation under future climate conditions provides information for land use and water management planning, and insights to meeting

Delineating geographic shifts in crop cultivation under future climate conditions provides information for land use and water management planning, and insights to meeting future demand. A suitability modeling approach was used to map the thermal niche of almond cultivation and phenological development across the Western United States (US) through the mid-21st century. The Central Valley of California remains thermally suitable for almond cultivation through the mid-21st century, and opportunities for expansion appear in the Willamette Valley of western Oregon, which is currently limited by insufficient heat accumulation. Modeled almond phenology shows a compression in reproductive development under future climate. By the mid-21st century, almond phenology in the Central Valley showed ~ 2-week delay in chill accumulation and ~ 1- and ~ 2.5-week advance in the timing of bloom and harvest, respectively. Although other climatic and non-climatic restrictions to almond cultivation may exist, these results highlight opportunities for shifts in the geography of high-value cropping systems, which may influence growers’ long-term land use decisions, and shape regional water and agricultural industry discussions regarding climate change adaptation options.