San Diego County Ecosystems: Ecological Impacts of Climate Change on a Biodiversity Hotspot

California Energy Commission (CEC) | August 27th, 2018

The diverse ecosystems, habitats, plants, and animals in the San Diego County region will be impacted by climatic shifts in multifold ways due to current and future vari

The diverse ecosystems, habitats, plants, and animals in the San Diego County region will be impacted by climatic shifts in multifold ways due to current and future variability, along with other factors including habitat loss and fragmentation, land use shifts, and changing fire regimes. While home to a major metropolitan area, San Diego County still hosts expanses of native and preserved habitats where management and conservation action could be greatly enhanced through science-based assessments and planning for climate change and increased climate variability. Projections of climate change in the region include warming by 4-9° F on average, and a 15-25% decrease in fall and spring precipitation with an increase in variability resulting in more frequent and intense droughts punctuated by increasingly rare yet extreme precipitation and flooding events. In addition, an increase in fire events and potential lessening of coastal marine influence may also affect San Diego’s ecosystems. Climate warming superimposed upon the pronounced spatially-varying temperature in the San Diego region will likely be associated with range shifts for many species resulting in novel community assemblages and biotic interactions and could create phenological mismatches. More frequent and intense heat waves may disproportionately affect younger age classes and reduce reproductive and survival rates of species sensitive to temperature extremes. With increasingly variable precipitation, drought may occur more frequently due to increased occurrence of dry days and could intensify because of warmer temperatures. Since drought disproportionately affects some species, these projected changes may cause structural changes to ecosystems. Santa Ana winds, occurring during increasingly dry fall months, would create ideal fire conditions. Coastal low clouds and fog along San Diego’s coast buffer this zone from the effects of warming and drying through shading and cooling. Although these marine stratus clouds will remain a presence, future changes in this phenomenon are uncertain. The spatial and temporal scales at which climate variations and change operate must be considered to build resilience into natural systems. Effective conservation actions will need to build on ongoing efforts focused on landscape-scale planning rather than more traditional single-species approaches. To carry this out will require cross-jurisdictional, multidisciplinary collaboration by scientists, policy-makers, planners, land managers, and the broader conservation community, which has a decades-long history of accomplishment in San Diego County.

San Francisco Bay Shore Inventory Mapping for Sea Level Rise Planning

San Francisco Estuary Institute (SFEI) | April 5th, 2016

With rising sea levels and the increased likelihood of extreme weather events, it is important for regional agencies and local municipalities in the San Francisco Bay Are

With rising sea levels and the increased likelihood of extreme weather events, it is important for regional agencies and local municipalities in the San Francisco Bay Area to have a clear understanding of the status, composition, condition, and elevation of our current Bay shore, including both natural features and built infrastructure. The purpose of this Bay shore inventory is to create a comprehensive and consistent picture of today’s Bay shore features to inform regional planning. This dataset includes both structures engineered expressly for flood risk management (such as accredited levees) and features that affect flooding at the shore but are not designed or maintained for this purpose (such as berms, road embankments, and marshes). This mapping covers as much of the ‘real world’ influence on flooding and flood routing as possible, including the large number of non-accredited structures. This information is needed to: 1. identify areas vulnerable to flooding; 2. identify adaptation constraints due to present Bay shore alignments; and 3. suggest opportunities where beaches, wetlands, and floodplains can be maintained or restored and integrated into flood risk management strategies.

San Francisco Bay Shore Inventory: Mapping for Sea Level Rise Planning

San Francisco Estuary Institute (SFEI) | July 1st, 2016

With rising sea levels and the increased likelihood of extreme weather events, it is important for regional agencies and local municipalities in the San Francisco Bay Are

With rising sea levels and the increased likelihood of extreme weather events, it is important for regional agencies and local municipalities in the San Francisco Bay Area to have a clear understanding of the status, composition, condition, and elevation of our current Bay shore, including both natural features and built infrastructure. The purpose of this Bay shore inventory is to create a comprehensive and consistent picture of today’s Bay shore features to inform regional planning. This dataset includes both structures engineered expressly for flood risk management (such as accredited levees) and features that affect flooding at the shore but are not designed or maintained for this purpose (such as berms, road embankments, and marshes). This mapping covers as much of the ‘real world’ influence on flooding and flood routing as possible, including the large number of non-accredited structures. This information is needed to: identify areas vulnerable to flooding. identify adaptation constraints due to present Bay shore alignments; and suggest opportunities where beaches, wetlands, and floodplains can be maintained or restored and integrated into flood risk management strategies. The primary focus of the project is therefore to inform regional planners and managers of Bay shore characteristics and vulnerabilities. The mapping presented here is neither to inform FEMA flood designation nor is it a replacement for site-specific analysis and design. The mapping consists of two main elements: Mapping of Bay shore features (levees, berms, roads, railroads, embankments, etc.) which could affect flooding and flood routing. Attributing Bay shore features with additional information including elevations, armoring, ownership (when known), among others. SFEI delineated and characterized the Bay shore inland to 3 meters (10ft) above mean higher high water (MHHW) to accommodate observed extreme water levels and the commonly used range of future sea level rise (SLR) scenarios. Elevated Bay shore features were mapped and classified as engineered levees, berms, embankments, transportation structures, wetlands, natural shoreline, channel openings, or water control structures. Mapped features were also attributed with elevation (vertical accuracy of <5cm reported in 30 meter (100ft) segments from LiDAR derived digital elevation models (DEMs), FEMA accreditation status, fortification (e.g., riprap, buttressing), frontage (e.g., whether a feature was fronted by a wetland or beach), ownership, and entity responsible for maintenance. Water control structures, ownership, and maintenance attributes were captured where data was available (not complete for entire dataset). The dataset was extensively reviewed and corrected by city, county, and natural resource agency staff in each county around the Bay. This report provides further description of the Bay shore inventory and methods used for developing the dataset. The result is a publicly accessible GIS spatial database.

San Francisco Bay Shoreline Adaptation Atlas: Working with Nature to Plan for Sea Level Rise Using Operational Landscape Units

San Francisco Estuary Institute (SFEI) | April 1st, 2019

As the climate continues to change, San Francisco Bay shoreline communities will need to adapt in order to build social and ecological resilience to rising sea levels.

As the climate continues to change, San Francisco Bay shoreline communities will need to adapt in order to build social and ecological resilience to rising sea levels. Given the complex and varied nature of the Bay shore, a science-based framework is essential to identify effective adaptation strategies that are appropriate for their particular settings and that take advantage of natural processes. This report proposes such a framework—Operational Landscape Units for San Francisco Bay.

San Francisco Estuary Blueprint 2022 (Comprehensive Conservation and Management Plan for the San Francisco Estuary)

San Francisco Estuary Partnership (SFEP) | March 16th, 2022

Click here for the definition of a Comprehensive Conservation and Management Plan)

Click here for the definition of a Comprehensive Conservation and Management Plan)

Santa Ana Watershed Basin Study

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) | September 1st, 2013

The U.S. Department of the Interior’s WaterSMART (Sustain and Manage America’s Resources for Tomorrow) program allows all bureaus of the Department to collaboratively

The U.S. Department of the Interior’s WaterSMART (Sustain and Manage America’s Resources for Tomorrow) program allows all bureaus of the Department to collaboratively work with States, Tribes, local governments, and non-governmental organizations to pursue a sustainable water supply for the Nation. This is done through a framework that provides federal leadership and assistance on the efficient use of water, and by integrating water and energy policies to support the sustainable use of all natural resources. Basin Studies, one of the tools of this program, are basin-wide efforts to evaluate and address the impacts of climate change, and define options for meeting future water demands in river basins in the western United States where imbalances in water supply and demand exist or are projected. The Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) and the Santa Ana Watershed Project Authority (SAWPA) partnered in the WaterSMART Santa Ana Watershed Basin Study (Study). The work done under the Study was used to help SAWPA update its One Water One Watershed (OWOW) Plan. OWOW is an Integrated Regional Water Management Plan (IRWMP) for the Santa Ana River Watershed (SARW) that serves as the blueprint for SAWPA, its member agencies and key stakeholders to effectively manage water resources over the next 30 years. The Santa Ana Watershed Basin Study illustrates how effective collaboration can improve water management. This Study takes a crest-to-coast and corner-to-corner approach throughout a 2,400-square-mile watershed, which encompasses everything from beach to mountain communities, to address the area’s unique water resource challenges. The SARW is home to more than 6 million people, and tens of millions more people visit the area each year. The region also has a large manufacturing, industrial, and agricultural base. More than 350 water, wastewater, and groundwater management, flood control, environmental and other non-governmental organizations, are working together as partners with SAWPA on the OWOW Plan. Through the Basin Study Program, Reclamation is partnering with SAWPA and its stakeholders to update key components of the Plan, now known as OWOW 2.0.  

Santa Ana Winds of Southern California: Their climatology, extremes, and behavior spanning six and a half decades

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | March 24th, 2016

Santa Ana Winds (SAWs) are an integral feature of the regional climate of Southern California/Northern Baja California region, but their climate-scale behavior is poorly

Santa Ana Winds (SAWs) are an integral feature of the regional climate of Southern California/Northern Baja California region, but their climate-scale behavior is poorly understood. In the present work,we identify SAWs in mesoscale dynamical downscaling of a global reanalysis from 1948 to 2012. Model windsare validated with anemometer observations. SAWs exhibit an organized pattern with strongest easterlywinds on westward facing downwind slopes and muted magnitudes at sea and over desert lowlands. Weconstruct hourly local and regional SAW indices and analyze elements of their behavior on daily, annual, andmultidecadal timescales. SAWs occurrences peak in winter, but some of the strongest winds have occurred infall. Finally, we observe that SAW intensity is influenced by prominent large-scale low-frequency modes ofclimate variability rooted in the tropical and north Pacific ocean-atmosphere system.

Satellite observations indicate that chia uses less water than other crops in warm climates

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | September 30th, 2024

Scattered tree death contributes to substantial forest loss in California

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | January 20th, 2024

In recent years, large-scale tree mortality events linked to global change have occurred around the world. Current forest monitoring methods are crucial for identifying m

In recent years, large-scale tree mortality events linked to global change have occurred around the world. Current forest monitoring methods are crucial for identifying mortality hotspots, but systematic assessments of isolated or scattered dead trees over large areas are needed to reduce uncertainty on the actual extent of tree mortality. Here, we mapped individual dead trees in California using sub-meter resolution aerial photographs from 2020 and deep learning-based dead tree detection. We identified 91.4 million dead trees over 27.8 million hectares of vegetated areas (16.7-24.7% underestimation bias when compared to field data). Among these, a total of 19.5 million dead trees appeared isolated, and 60% of all dead trees occurred in small groups ( ≤ 3 dead trees within a 30 × 30 m grid), which is largely undetected by other state-level monitoring methods. The widespread mortality of individual trees impacts the carbon budget and sequestration capacity of California forests and can be considered a threat to forest health and a fuel source for future wildfires.

Scenarios of climate adaptation potential on protected working lands from management of soils

Environmental Research Letters (IOP) | September 30th, 2019

Management of protected lands may enhance ecosystem services that conservation programs were designed to protect. Practices that build soil organic matter on agri

Management of protected lands may enhance ecosystem services that conservation programs were designed to protect. Practices that build soil organic matter on agricultural lands also increase soil water holding capacity, potentially reducing climatic water deficit (CWD), increasing actual evapotranspiration (AET) and increasing groundwater recharge (RCH). We developed nine spatially-explicit land use and conservation scenarios (2001–2100) in the LUCAS land use change model to address two questions for California working lands (cropland and rangeland): How does land use change limit opportunities to manage soils for hydrologic climate adaptation benefits? To what extent and where can soil management practices increase climate adaptation on protected working lands? Hydrologic benefits [Σ(ΔCWD, ΔAET, ΔRCH)] due to soil management were simulated in the Basin Characterization Model (a state-wide water balance model) for two Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 climate models. LUCAS simulated land conversion and new conservation easements with potential for maximum hydrologic benefits. Climate drove differences in lost potential for water benefits due to urbanization (33.9–87.6 m3 × 106) in 2050. Conflict between development pressure and potential hydrologic benefits occurred most in Santa Clara County in the San Francisco Bay Area and Shasta County in Northern Sacramento Valley. Hydrologic benefits on easements were similar in magnitude to losses from development. Water savings from management of California Land Conservation (a.k.a. Williamson) Act contract lands were an order of magnitude greater, totaling over 460 m3 × 106 annually in a drier climate by 2050. Few counties provide most benefits because of soil properties, climate and land area protected. The increase in hydrologic benefits varies by agricultural practice and adoption rate, land use type and configuration, and terms of conservation agreements. The effectiveness of programs designed to improve climate adaptation at county to state scales will likely increase by taking this variability into consideration.