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Managing An Uncertain Future: Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for California’s Water

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | December 12th, 2008

Summary

For California water managers, the future is now. Climate change is already having a profound impact on water resources as evidenced by changes in snowpack, river flows a

For California water managers, the future is now. Climate change is already having a profound impact on water resources as evidenced by changes in snowpack, river flows and sea levels. The Department of Water Resources (DWR) will continue to play a leadership role in adapting to these changes. DWR is already engaged in a number of efforts designed to improve California’s ability to cope with a changing climate. However, more must be done. This report recommends a series of adaptation strategies for state and local water managers to improve their capacity to handle change. Many of the strategies will also help adapt our water resources to accommodate non-climate demands including a growing population, ecosystem restoration and greater flood protection. Several of the recommendations in this report are ready for immediate adoption, while others need additional public deliberation and development. Some can be implemented using existing resources and authority, while the majority will require new resources, sustained financial investment and significant collaborative effort. Many of California’s most important water resource investments remain dependent on bond funding approved by voters. As a result, they are well funded in some years, but underfunded in most. This history of uneven and irregular investment has delayed progress in areas that have the potential to yield substantial gains over short periods of time. DWR presents this report as part of the process of updating the California Water Plan, and as part of the California Resources Agency’s draft statewide Climate Adaptation Plan. Overall, this report urges a new approach to managing California’s water and other natural resources in the face of a changing climate.

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Observed and projected changes in snow accumulation and snowline in California’s snowy mountains

Climate Dynamics (Springer) | May 25th, 2023

Summary

The Sierra Nevada and Southern Cascades—California’s snowy mountains—are primary freshwater sources and natural reservoirs for the states of California and Nevada.

The Sierra Nevada and Southern Cascades—California’s snowy mountains—are primary freshwater sources and natural reservoirs for the states of California and Nevada. These mountains receive precipitation overwhelmingly from wintertime storms including atmospheric rivers (ARs), much of it falling as snow at the higher elevations. Using a seven-decade record of daily observed temperature and precipitation as well as a snow reanalysis and downscaled climate projections, we documented historical and future changes in snow accumulation and snowlines. In four key subregions of California’s snowy mountains, we quantified the progressing contribution of ARs and non-AR storms to the evolving and projected snow accumulation and snowlines (elevation of the snow-to-rain transition), exploring their climatology, variability and trends. Historically, snow makes up roughly a third of the precipitation affecting California’s mountains. While ARs make up only a quarter of all precipitating days and, due to their relative warmth, produce snowlines higher than do other storms, they contribute over 40% of the total seasonal snow. Under projected unabated warming, snow accumulation would decline to less than half of historical by the late twenty-first century, with the greatest snow loss at mid elevations (from 1500 to 3300 m by the mountain sub-regions) during fall and spring. Central and Southern Sierra Nevada peaks above 3400 m might see occasionally extreme snow accumulations in January–February resulting entirely from wetter ARs. AR-related snowlines are projected to increase by more than 700 m, compared to about 500 m for other storms. We discuss likely impacts of the changing climate for water resources as well as for winter recreation.

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On the Sources of Water Supply Forecast Error in Western Colorado

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | December 1st, 2023

Summary

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Past Groundwater Drought in the North American Cordillera

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | November 11th, 2024

Summary

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Preparing for California’s Next Drought—Changes Since 1987-92

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | July 19th, 2000

Summary

Preparation of this report was initiated in response to the unusually dry conditions experienced through January 2000. California was in the second year of a La Niña eve

Preparation of this report was initiated in response to the unusually dry conditions experienced through January 2000. California was in the second year of a La Niña event, typically characterized by dryer than normal conditions in the southern part of the State. December 1999 was one of the driest Decembers on record. Snowpack levels in early January in the northern Sierra, the source of much of California’s developed water supply, were only some 20 percent of seasonal average. Given that California had previously experienced a record five consecutive wet years, it seemed probable that 2000 would not be another wet year. Subsequently, climatic conditions demonstrated the great variability typical of California. Substantial precipitation and snowpack accumulation brought Northern California to near average water conditions before the end of February. A dry 2000 would not have constituted a drought for most Californians, especially not with storage in the State’s major reservoirs at above average levels as a consequence of the past five wet years. It was recognized, however, that planning should begin for actions to be taken in the event that the following year was also dry. In response to the substantial public interest created by the dry weather conditions, the Department evaluated water supply conditions, changed circumstances since the last drought, and other factors that would affect drought readiness in 2001. The purpose of this report is to review items that the Department should consider in near-term drought planning, putting California’s conditions today into perspective with experiences gained in the 1987-92 drought. The report begins with an overview of California hydrology and water supply, then describes conditions encountered in the 1987-92 drought. Changed conditions since that drought are summarized, and their implications discussed. The report concludes with a list of actions that the Department could take to respond to future drought conditions. It is essential that California prepare for the return of very dry conditions. On June 9, 2000 Governor Davis and Interior Secretary Babbitt announced a “Framework for Action” as the completion of a five-year planning program to implement specific actions of the CALFED Bay-Delta Program. The Framework included a recommendation that Governor Davis appoint a panel to develop a Drought Contingency Plan by the end of 2000. This report will be used to brief the panel on drought actions considered to date, with the expectation that further and more focused actions/programs may be included in the Governor’s Drought Contingency Plan.

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Preparing for New Risks: Addressing Climate Change in California’s Urban Water Management Plans

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | June 20th, 2013

Summary

Urban Water Management Plans (UWMPs) are a central component of California’s efforts to assure reliable water supplies, particularly during drought conditions that are

Urban Water Management Plans (UWMPs) are a central component of California’s efforts to assure reliable water supplies, particularly during drought conditions that are frequently experienced in the state. Prepared by water suppliers every five years, UWMPs include supply and demand projections for the next 20 years, and describe strategies to assure adequate supplies during average, single-year, and multi-year drought conditions. UWMPs also contain plans to implement a 20% reduction in per capita urban water use by the year 2020, as required under the Water Conservation Act of 2009 (SBX7-7). Climate change is introducing new risks in water planning, such as increasing temperatures, reduced snowpack, changing precipitation patterns, and accelerating sea level rise, which are already being observed in the state. It is increasingly important for water suppliers to consider how these trends are impacting water supply, demand, and drought patterns. Water suppliers can also make important contributions to reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs), through energy savings from water conservation as well as other measures. In its guidance to water suppliers for preparing 2010 UWMPs, the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) included an optional section focused on consideration of climate change impacts and GHG emissions. This study assesses how water suppliers have incorporated these factors into their 2010 plans. Drawing upon a sample of 2010 UWMPs, it examines the nature and extent of climate change discussion and analysis, and assesses how climate change risks have been incorporated into water supply and demand projections. The report also provides recommendations for how DWR could improve its guidance for 2015 UWMPs to support water suppliers in addressing climate change. All public and investor-owned utilities serving 3,000 customers or supplying at least 3,000 acre-feet of water annually are required to submit an Urban Water Management Plan to DWR every five years. Of the approximately 400 agencies submitting UWMPs, most are relatively small, with 90% serving less than 300,000 people, and 40% serving less than 50,000. Most are public entities, but some are private companies, including three investor-owned utilities with multiple service areas across the state. Large and small water suppliers tend to differ in their access to resources for planning and analysis of issues such as climate change. For many small suppliers, UWMP preparation serves as their primary long-term planning process. Suppliers also vary in the nature of their vulnerability to drought and the impacts of climate change. Larger suppliers usually have multiple sources of supply, while small suppliers are more likely to rely on a single source, especially groundwater. These small utilities are less likely to have relationships with other suppliers, thereby reducing their options for coping with severe droughts. This study is based on an analysis of 49 individually submitted UWMPs, seven regional UWMPs, and UWMPs from three investor-owned utilities with multiple service areas across the state. The sample was stratified so that it represents water suppliers of all sizes. It includes all large suppliers (serving 300,000 or more customers), and 10% of medium-sized and small suppliers (serving 50,000 – 300,000 and less than 50,000 customers, respectively). Each UWMP was analyzed for its content related to climate change, and classified according to the degree and focus of discussion. This report is also informed by informal consultations with representatives of water supply agencies of different sizes.

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Progressive forest canopy water loss during the 2012–2015 California drought

National Academy of Sciences (NAS) | December 28th, 2015

Summary

The 2012–2015 drought has left California with severely reduced snowpack, soil moisture, ground water, and reservoir stocks, but the impact of this estimated mi

The 2012–2015 drought has left California with severely reduced snowpack, soil moisture, ground water, and reservoir stocks, but the impact of this estimated millennial-scale event on forest health is unknown. We used airborne laser-guided spectroscopy and satel- lite-based models to assess losses in canopy water content of California’s forests between 2011 and 2015. Approximately 10.6 million ha of forest containing up to 888 million large trees experienced measurable loss in canopy water content during this drought period. Severe canopy water losses of greater than 30% occurred over 1 million ha, affecting up to 58 million large trees. Our measurements exclude forests affected by fire between 2011 and 2015. If drought conditions continue or reoccur, even with temporary reprieves such as El Niño, we predict substantial future forest change.

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Projected increases and shifts in rain-on-snow flood risk over western North America

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | August 6th, 2018

Summary

Destructive and costly flooding can occur when warm storm systems deposit substantial rain on extensive snowcover, as observed in February 2017 with the Oroville

Destructive and costly flooding can occur when warm storm systems deposit substantial rain on extensive snowcover, as observed in February 2017 with the Oroville Dam crisis in California. However, decision-makers lack guidance on how such rain-on-snow (ROS) flood risk may respond to climate change. Here, daily ROS events with flood-generating potential are simulated over western North America for a historical (2000–2013) and future (forced under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5) period with the Weather Research and Forecasting model; 4 km resolution allows the basin-scale ROS flood risk to be assessed. In the warmer climate, we show that ROS becomes less frequent at lower elevations due to snowpack declines, particularly in warmer areas (for example, the Pacific maritime region). By contrast, at higher elevations where seasonal snowcover persists, ROS becomes more frequent due to a shift from snowfall to rain. Accordingly, the water available for runoff increases for 55% of western North American river basins, with corresponding increases in flood risk of 20–200%, the greatest changes of which are projected for the Sierra Nevada, the Colorado River headwaters and the Canadian Rocky Mountains. Thus, flood control and water resource planning must consider ROS to fully quantify changes in flood risk with anthropogenic warming.

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