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Projected 21st Century Coastal Flooding in the Southern California Bight. Part 2: Tools for Assessing Climate Change-Driven Coastal Hazards and Socio-Economic Impacts

Journal of Marine Science and Engineering (MDPI) | July 2nd, 2018

Summary

This paper is the second of two that describes the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) approach for quantifying physical hazards and socio-economic hazard exposure in

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Projected Changes in California’s Precipitation Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves

California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) | August 15th, 2018

Summary

Traditionally, infrastructure design and rainfall-triggered landslide models rely on the notion of stationarity, which assumes that the statistics of hydroclimati

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Projected Changes in Precipitation, Temperature, and Drought across California’s Hydrologic Regions in the 21st Century

Climate (MDPI) | April 23rd, 2018

Summary

This study investigated potential changes in future precipitation, temperature, and drought across 10 hydrologic regions in California. The latest climate model projectio

This study investigated potential changes in future precipitation, temperature, and drought across 10 hydrologic regions in California. The latest climate model projections on these variables through 2099 representing the current state of the climate science were applied for this purpose. Changes were explored in terms of differences from a historical baseline as well as the changing trend. The results indicate that warming is expected across all regions in all temperature projections, particularly in late-century. There is no such consensus on precipitation, with projections mostly ranging from −25% to +50% different from the historical baseline. There is no statistically significant increasing or decreasing trend in historical precipitation and in the majority of the projections on precipitation. However, on average, precipitation is expected to increase slightly for most regions. The increases in late-century are expected to be more pronounced than the increases in mid-century. The study also shows that warming in summer and fall is more significant than warming in winter and spring. The study further illustrates that, compared to wet regions, dry regions are projected to become more arid. The inland eastern regions are expecting higher increases in temperature than other regions. Particularly, the coolest region, North Lahontan, tends to have the highest increases in both minimum and maximum temperature and a significant amount of increase in wet season precipitation, indicative of increasing flood risks in this region. Overall, these findings are meaningful from both scientific and practical perspectives. From a scientific perspective, these findings provide useful information that can be utilized to improve the current flood and water supply forecasting models or develop new predictive models. From a practical perspective, these findings can help decision-makers in making different adaptive strategies for different regions to address adverse impacts posed by those potential changes.

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Projected Effects of Future Climates on Freshwater Fishes of California

California Energy Commission (CEC) | July 31st, 2012

Summary

A methodology is presented that allows systematic evaluation of climate change impacts on freshwater fishes in California (121 native fish taxa and 43 aliens). The method

A methodology is presented that allows systematic evaluation of climate change impacts on freshwater fishes in California (121 native fish taxa and 43 aliens). The methodology uses expert opinions of the authors and literature reviews of status and biology of the fishes to score both status of each species (“baseline vulnerability”) and likely impact of climate change (“climate change vulnerability”). Baseline and climate change vulnerability scores were highly correlated with one another and were consistent among different scorers. Native species were found to have both greater baseline and greater climate change vulnerability than alien species. Fifty percent of natives had critical or high baseline vulnerability versus none for aliens; 83 percent had critical or high climate change vulnerability versus 19 percent for aliens. Fishes with high baseline vulnerability were also likely to have highest vulnerability to climate change. These results show that predicted climate change effects on fresh water environments will dramatically change the fish fauna at all scales and at all elevations. The research team concluded that most native fishes will suffer population declines and become more restricted in their distributions; some will likely be driven to extinction, if present trends continue. Fishes requiring cold water (<22°C [72°F]) are particularly likely to go extinct. In contrast, most alien fishes will thrive, with many species likely to increase in abundance and range. However, even many aliens will ultimately be negatively affected through loss of aquatic habitats during severe droughts and stressful conditions in most waterways during summer months. On a regional scale (e.g., San Francisco Bay tributaries), vulnerability patterns follow statewide patterns and indicate the need for conservation strategies adapted to local conditions. Studies of three streams with long-term data on fish abundance indicate that native and alien species respond in different ways to variability in stream flow, which is likely to become more variable with climate change.

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Projected increases and shifts in rain-on-snow flood risk over western North America

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | August 6th, 2018

Summary

Destructive and costly flooding can occur when warm storm systems deposit substantial rain on extensive snowcover, as observed in February 2017 with the Oroville

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Projected responses of the coastal water table for California using present-day and future sea-level rise scenarios

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | August 11th, 2020

Summary

Coastal groundwater levels (heads) can increase with sea level rise (SLR) where shallow groundwater floats on underlying seawater. In some areas coastal groundwater could

Coastal groundwater levels (heads) can increase with sea level rise (SLR) where shallow groundwater floats on underlying seawater. In some areas coastal groundwater could rise almost as much as SLR, but where rising groundwater intersects surface drainage features, the increase will be less. Numerical modeling can provide insight into coastal areas that may be more or less vulnerable to hazards associated with SLR-driven groundwater shoaling (moving closer to the ground surface) and emergence (flooding the ground surface), providing coastal planners with critical information that can be used to increase public safety, mitigate physical damages, and more effectively manage and allocate resources in complex coastal settings. Seamless unconfined groundwater heads for coastal California groundwater systems were modeled with homogeneous, steady-state MODFLOW simulations. The geographic extent examined was limited primarily to low-elevation (land surface less than approximately 10 m above mean sea level) areas. In areas where coastal elevations increase rapidly (e.g., bluff stretches), the model boundary was set approximately 1 kilometer inland of the present-day shoreline. Steady-state MODFLOW groundwater flow models were used to obtain detailed (10-meter-scale) predictions over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of groundwater heads for both current and future sea-level rise (SLR) scenarios (0 to 2 meters (m) in 0.25 m increments, 2.5 m, 3 m, and 5 m) using a range of horizontal hydraulic conductivity (Kh) scenarios (0.1, 1, and 10 m/day). For each SLR/Kh combination, results are provided for two marine boundary conditions; local mean sea level (LMSL) and mean higher-high water (MHHW), and for two model versions. In the first model version, groundwater reaching the land surface is removed from the model, simulating loss via natural drainage. In the second model version, SLR impacts are modeled by simply raising the present-day (SLR 0m) modeled groundwater head by the amount of sea-level rise, simulating the worst-case "linear" response to sea-level rise. Modeled groundwater heads were then subtracted from high-resolution topographic digital elevation model (DEM) data to obtain water table depths. Groundwater head and water table depths are presented in raster GeoTIFF format. Polygon shapefiles also present water table depths by depth range (emergent, 0 to 1, 1 to 2, 2 to 5, and greater than 5 meters depth). All results are presented by County.

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Projected U.S. drought extremes through the twenty-first century with vapor pressure deficit

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | May 21st, 2022

Summary

Global warming is expected to enhance drought extremes in the United States throughout the twenty-first century. Projecting these changes can be complex in regions with

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Projections of declining surface-water availability for the southwestern United States

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | December 23rd, 2012

Summary

Global warming driven by rising greenhouse-gas concentrations is expected to cause wet regions of the tropics and mid to high latitudes to get wetter and subtropi

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Promoting atmospheric-river and snowmelt fueled biogeomorphic processes by restoring river-floodplain connectivity in California’s Central Valley

Springer | April 30th, 2015

Summary

Potential biogeomorphic benefits from intentional levee breaks and weir overflow on the managed floodplain-river system of California’s Sacramento and San Joaquin River

Potential biogeomorphic benefits from intentional levee breaks and weir overflow on the managed floodplain-river system of California’s Sacramento and San Joaquin River watershed (Central Valley) are discussed here. Prior to the nineteenth century, the system was characterized by natural levees alongside complex multichanneled rivers and tributaries, and geomorphic processes such as channel migration and avulsion, typical in lowland floodplain-river systems globally, dominated. Today, the floodplain-river system has been heavily modified with infrastructure such as levee embankments that disconnect floodplains from channels and diminish key processes of floodplain-river ecology. Unintentional levee breaks in river systems where floodplains have been developed for agriculture or urban uses still occur regularly (in a quarter of twentieth century years) and are sometimes catastrophic. Floodplain inundation, erosion, and sedimentation, the dominant geomorphic processes that occur during unintentional levee breaks, are flood risks in such embanked river systems. Climate and flood variability still dictate the frequency of unintentional levee breaks despite many decades of engineering. Of particular consequence are the so-called atmospheric-river (AR) storms. Since 1951, 81 % of breaks have occurred as a result of AR storms and flooding, while most of the rest occurred during snowmelt floods. Intentional levee breaks or planned weir overflows that are designed for floodplain restoration can facilitate a return towards more natural and dynamic biogeomorphic processes. In areas where room for flood-driven geomorphic processes is available on floodplains, local sediment scour and deposition near a levee break promote topographic diversity that enhances vegetation establishment and floodplain habitat. This chapter summarizes our current understanding of climate processes and flood variability that govern unintentional levee breaks or weir overflow. We also review examples of alternative flood management approaches in the Central Valley that promote processes necessary to restore or sustain lowland floodplain biogeomorphology. Future climate-driven changes in flood regime, such as enhanced flooding during winter months or more frequent atmospheric rivers, could be accommodated by additional intentional levee breaks or planned weir overflow for restoration. Implementation of these alternatives could be used to improve restoration policy and management of floods in embanked river floodplains.

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Property Prices in Peril

First Street | February 3rd, 2025

Summary

Regional desirability is being reshaped by chronic changes in climate across the country: coastal areas are increasingly threatened by sea level rise, while inland region

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Projected 21st Century Coastal Flooding in the Southern California Bight. Part 2: Tools for Assessing Climate Change-Driven Coastal Hazards and Socio-Economic Impacts

Projected Changes in California’s Precipitation Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves

Projected Changes in Precipitation, Temperature, and Drought across California’s Hydrologic Regions in the 21st Century

Projected Effects of Future Climates on Freshwater Fishes of California

Projected increases and shifts in rain-on-snow flood risk over western North America

Projected responses of the coastal water table for California using present-day and future sea-level rise scenarios

Projected U.S. drought extremes through the twenty-first century with vapor pressure deficit

Projections of declining surface-water availability for the southwestern United States

Promoting atmospheric-river and snowmelt fueled biogeomorphic processes by restoring river-floodplain connectivity in California’s Central Valley

Property Prices in Peril

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