Hazard: The Future of the Salton Sea With No Restoration Project

Pacific Institute | May 1st, 2006

The Salton Sea lies on the brink of catastrophic change. The amount of water flowing into the Sea in the next twenty years will decrease by more than 40%, causing

The Salton Sea lies on the brink of catastrophic change. The amount of water flowing into the Sea in the next twenty years will decrease by more than 40%, causing its surface elevation to drop by more than 20 feet, rapidly shrinking its volume by more than 60%, tripling its salinity, and exposing more than 100 square miles of dusty lakebed to the desert’s blowing winds. These changes will cause four major impacts: Human health in the Imperial and Coachella valleys – currently home to more than 400,000 people and growing quickly – will be harmed by the estimated 33% increase in the amount of fine windblown dust in the basin. The Imperial Valley already suffers from the highest childhood asthma hospitalization rate in the state; the growing number of retirees living in both valleys are especially susceptible to poor air quality. Air quality in these two valleys – which already fails to meet state and federal air quality standards – would get much worse, increasing the cost of bringing these areas into compliance. Air quality-related litigation and state liability will increase. California has assumed ultimate responsibility for managing only those lands exposed due to a recent set of water transfers, constituting about half of the estimated 134 square miles exposed in 30 years. Responsibility for managing any dust blowing off the other 60 or so square miles will rest with the individual property owner. However, there is no clear way to determine which lands will be exposed due to the water transfers and which will be exposed due to other actions. Total air quality management costs at Owens Lake have exceeded $400 million. Costs at the Salton Sea could be higher. Many – if not most – of the hundreds of thousands of birds that currently use the Sea will lose their roosting and breeding habitats and their sources of food. The Sea’s fish will be almost entirely gone within a dozen years. Those birds that remain will suffer from disease and the reproductive deformities and failures that plagued the Kesterson National Wildlife Refuge twenty years ago. Some of the endangered and threatened species that use the Sea may be able to find other habitats, but others could suffer significant population losses. The tremendous scale of the Sea adds to its complexity, and the difficulty of finding a viable solution. The Sea currently runs almost 35 miles long, and 15 miles at its widest point, covering about 365 square miles. It has the largest surface area of any lake in California, yet is barely 50 feet at its deepest point. The Sea is 1/3 saltier than the ocean, and, fed by the fertilizers running off of neighboring fields, sustains incredible levels of biological productivity. Until recently, the amount of water entering the Sea was roughly balanced by the amount of water evaporating from its broad surface. Stabilizing the Sea at its current salinity would require the removal of more than four million tons of salt each year, assuming flows to the Sea do not change. But they will change. Under a set of agreements signed in 2003, the Imperial Valley has begun to transfer water to San Diego County, ultimately reducing flows to the Salton Sea. Other actions, including actions in Mexico, will also reduce the amount of water flowing to the Sea, by 45% or more in the next 30-40 years. These changes will dramatically decrease the size of the Salton Sea and the quality of its water. In September, 2003, the California legislature passed a set of laws that implement the 2003 water agreements and provide a 15-year reprieve for the Sea. The legislation offers the prospect of more than $300 million of restoration funds, but it does not guarantee a long-term restoration project for the Salton Sea. California’s Resources Agency will submit a Salton Sea Ecosystem Restoration Plan and related documents to the state legislature by December 31, 2006. The cost of any long-term restoration plan will almost certainly exceed a billion dollars. Although various private-public partnerships have been suggested, funding and implementation of any restoration plan is far from certain, especially given the lack of consensus on a preferred alternative.

Hazy Futures: Projecting the local impacts of global warming is a stubborn challenge. But cities need answers fast

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | June 5th, 2025

A wastewater treatment plant isn’t top on everyone’s sightseeing itinerary. But on a cloudless, breezy day in April, Agmed Weber, operations manager for the Walnut Cr

A wastewater treatment plant isn’t top on everyone’s sightseeing itinerary. But on a cloudless, breezy day in April, Agmed Weber, operations manager for the Walnut Creek plant—which handles more than half of the sewage here in Texas’s booming capital city—is an enthusiastic tour guide. He marvels at the foresight of those who built the jumbo plant a half-century ago, when Austin was a third of its current size. “They were really thinking about the future,” he says. Weber feels a similar pressure—to prepare for not only continued population growth, but also a hotter future. Austin is “in a tight space where we need to think ahead,” he says.

HEC-HMS Models for the Sacramento and San Joaquin River Basins Comprehensive Study

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) | August 1st, 2001

Due to several large and damaging flood events on the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers (California) during the 1980s and 1990s, the U.S. House of Representatives

Due to several large and damaging flood events on the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers (California) during the 1980s and 1990s, the U.S. House of Representatives directed the Sacramento District to develop comprehensive plans for flood control for the two rivers and to develop hydrologic and hydraulic models of the river systems. The models will be used to provide better forecasts and evaluations of flood damage reduction alternatives. Additionally, the model results will be used as input for reservoir simulation models. The Sacramento River Basin and the San Joaquin River/Tulare Lake Bed Basins comprise nearly 60,000 square miles, drain California’s Central Valley floor and receive much of their runoff from the Sierra Nevada mountain range. Developing hydrologic models for the tributary basins (which included extremely variable terrain) within a ten month time period was a formidable task. The District contacted the Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC) to assist with the development of these models. HEC used the Hydrologic Modeling System program, HEC-HMS, and introduced the HEC-GeoHMS grid-based technology to perform the hydrologic study. GeoHMS is an ArcView® extension that provides automated subbasin delineation methods and calculates many physical characteristics used for estimation of hydrologic parameters. HEC developed and calibrated 33 individual HEC-HMS models for the major tributaries and portions of the valley floors of the Sacramento River Basin and the San Joaquin River / Tulare Lake Bed Basins. GeoHMS was used to delineate the individual river basins, perform initial subbasin delineation and develop the physical characteristics for the subbasins. Tools within GeoHMS allowed the modelers to iteratively redelineate their subbasins, as appropriate, to meet project needs. Keeping the modeling effort consistent was critical to the success of the study. To ensure this consistency of procedures and results, HEC developed modeling guidelines that each of the 11 modeling teams followed. Once the grid-based HEC-HMS models were developed, HEC contracted with the Corps’ Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory (CRREL) to perform a snowmelt study for the watersheds. HEC provided a gridded precipitation file (4 km2) to CRREL. Through the use of their Distributed Snow Process Model (DSPM), CRREL then provided a gridded snowmelt/ precipitation file to HEC. DSPM computes snowmelt and rainfall depths at the soil surface on a grid-cell basis. This data is used directly by HEC-HMS as precipitation on the watershed. The ModClark rainfall to runoff transformation was used to compute the subbasin hydrographs. HEC-HMS parameter optimization models were developed at hourly flow gages for the unregulated headwater streams. The runoff parameter optimization models allowed the modelers to develop the runoff parameters necessary for the regression analysis. A number of physical characteristics were evaluated for correlation with variations in Clark’s time of concentration, TC, for the optimization models. The results of the regression analysis allowed the modelers to populate the ungaged subbasins with appropriate unit hydrograph parameters. Approximately 200 hourly flow gages and 83 reservoirs were considered in calibrating the models. The 33 individual basin models were then given to the Sacramento District.

Henry Miller Water District Revised Groundwater Sustainability Plan, Kern County Subbasin

Henry Miller Water District | July 21st, 2022

This Groundwater Sustainability Plan (GSP) for the Henry Miller Water District (HMWD) Groundwater Sustainability Agency (GSA) has been prepared pursuant to Water Code §1

This Groundwater Sustainability Plan (GSP) for the Henry Miller Water District (HMWD) Groundwater Sustainability Agency (GSA) has been prepared pursuant to Water Code §10727. HMWD is located in the Kern County Subbasin (Basin 5-22.14) as defined by the Department of Water Resources’ (DWR) Bulletin 118. The Kern Subbasin is considered to be in a condition of critical overdraft and has been designated as a high priority basin. This GSP is one of the five GSPs being prepared in the Subbasin, which collectively has and will coordinate to avoid, to the best of their abilities, any and all Undesirable Results as a result of unsustainable groundwater management practices. HMWD formed its own GSA on March 15, 2017; it is the only Water District located within the GSA. HMWD GSA is one of five GSAs that are preparing a GSP within the Subbasin. This GSP, in coordination with the four other GSPs within the Subbasin, will provide a path to sustainability and the preservation of groundwater resources for all beneficial users of groundwater. Because the Subbasin has multiple GSPs, the GSPs are prepared under a coordination agreement. This Coordination Agreement exemplifies the ways that the various GSPs were able to work together to achieve a common goal: groundwater sustainability for the Subbasin. For example, the entire Subbasin has utilized Todd Groundwater’s services to analyze historic, current, and future groundwater conditions with a C2VSIM model. This Plan includes a description of the historic groundwater conditions in the Subbasin, a Subbasin water budget, sustainable management criteria for future monitoring, and projects and/or management actions that may be implemented to ensure groundwater sustainability is achieved by 2040 and maintained through 2070. Due to size, the file has been divided. Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4, Part 5

Heresy in ENSO teleconnections: Atmospheric rivers as disruptors of canonical seasonal precipitation anomalies in the Southwestern US

Springer Nature | February 7th, 2025

In spite of forecasts for anomalous dryness based on the canonical La Niña signal, Water Years 2011, 2017, and 2023 brought copious precipitation to California and the S

In spite of forecasts for anomalous dryness based on the canonical La Niña signal, Water Years 2011, 2017, and 2023 brought copious precipitation to California and the Southwestern United States (SWUS). Although El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main source of seasonal precipitation predictability for the region, outstanding Atmospheric River (AR) activity produced the unexpected regional wetness in each of these heretical water years (WYs). We define heretical WYs as those that result in precipitation anomalies that oppose those expected based on ENSO canon. We assess the contribution of ARs and other storms to these WYs, finding that heretical La Niña/El Niño WYs were characterized by anomalously robust/deficient AR activity. In California, precipitation accumulation during the heretical La Niña WYs was comparable to or even exceeded that observed during the exceedingly wet WY1998—the textbook canonical El Niño year. Our findings indicate a weaker/stronger relationship between ENSO and AR/non-AR precipitation, primarily driven by storm frequency. Although ARs can disrupt the ENSO-precipitation signal, ENSO still influences the frequency of AR precipitation in the southwestern U.S. desert, the region influenced by ARs that make landfall in Baja California, Mexico. These results highlight the complexity of ENSO's impact on precipitation in the Western US and underscore the need for a nuanced understanding of ENSO’s influence on ARs to improve seasonal precipitation prediction.

Highlights Central Valley Flood Protection Plan 2022 Update

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | January 23rd, 2023

The 2022 Central Valley Flood Protection Plan Update was adopted by the Central Valley Flood Protection Board on December 16th, 2022. Just days later, beginning on Decemb

The 2022 Central Valley Flood Protection Plan Update was adopted by the Central Valley Flood Protection Board on December 16th, 2022. Just days later, beginning on December 27th, 2022, a series of atmospheric rivers began to impact California. This succession of atmospheric rivers resulted in 34 trillion gallons of water falling across California in 24 days, and 21 forecast points in the Central Valley reaching flood or monitor stage. Governor Gavin Newsom declared a state of emergency on January 4th, 2023; federal emergency and disaster declarations followed soon thereafter. These events underscore the importance of the CVFPP as the State’s strategic blueprint for investment in flood risk reduction in the Central Valley, especially in an era of whiplash weather—from drought to flooding— driven by the impacts of climate change.

Historical Ecology of the Los Angeles River Watershed and Environs, Infrastructure for a Comprehensive Analysis

University of Southern California (USC) | June 15th, 2020

Historical Expenditures and Current and Future Funding Needs

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | December 13th, 2018

This document supports information contained in the California Water Plan Update 2018. The purpose of this document is to provide a description of California’s water re

This document supports information contained in the California Water Plan Update 2018. The purpose of this document is to provide a description of California’s water resources management historical expenditures and the existing funding needs in the State. The historical expenditure data includes capital and ongoing public agencies’ (State, local, and Federal agencies) historical expenditures. Historical expenditure data is organized by management action type and water sectors. In this document, capital management actions include infrastructure development, repair, replacement or rehabilitation. Ongoing actions include planning, data management, tracking and reporting, operations, and maintenance. Historical expenditure data is provided for State fiscal year 2005/2006 (2006) to 2014/2015 (2015). This timeframe was selected due to data availability at the local, State, and Federal levels. This document also provides information on the accrued interest on debt from State general obligation (GO) bonds.  This document provides information pertaining to the projected existing water management funding needs and existing water management funding gap. Projected water management funding need was estimated from planned and proposed management actions collected from State, local, and Federal agencies.  Historical expenditure and funding need information is used in the California Water Plan Update 2018 to provide context and data for inclusion into the funding analysis, described in the Funding Scenario Analysis supporting document. 

How are Western water districts managing groundwater basins?

California Agriculture (UCANR) | March 13th, 2018

Making the transition from open-access groundwater rights to sustainable groundwater management is a formidable task for newly formed groundwater sustainability age

Making the transition from open-access groundwater rights to sustainable groundwater management is a formidable task for newly formed groundwater sustainability agencies in California. As agencies begin to decide how to make equitable water allocations, how to monitor groundwater use and what mix of supply- and demand-side mechanisms to adopt to satisfy sustainability criteria, the groundwater management strategies in place across other basins in the western United States are worth studying. We surveyed 18 groundwater districts in California and other Western states to identify the management approaches and practices they have instituted. The conclusions we draw suggest a correlative rights framework of water allocation with phase-ins for heavy users; metered pumping; flexible arrangements for trading and carrying over allocations for multiple years; and incentivizing groundwater recharge, including recharge from deep percolation from crops. Rigid formulas for significantly reducing groundwater use in medium- and high-priority basins are likely to have significant negative effects on the regional economy.

How can we support the development of robust groundwater sustainability plans?

California Agriculture (UCANR) | March 13th, 2018

Three years after California passed the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SMGA), groundwater sustainability agencies (GSAs) are now preparing to develop their groun

Three years after California passed the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SMGA), groundwater sustainability agencies (GSAs) are now preparing to develop their groundwater sustainability plans (GSPs), the blueprints that will outline each basin’s road to sustainability. Successful GSPs will require an effective participatory decision-making process. We tested a participatory process with the Yolo County Flood Control and Water Conservation District, a water-limited irrigation district in the Central Valley. First, we worked with district stakeholders to outline the parts of the plan and set measureable objectives for sustainability. The district defined seven management strategies, which the research team evaluated against climate, land use and regulatory uncertainties using a water resources model. Together, we explored model results using customized interactive graphics. We found that the business-as-usual strategy was the most unlikely to meet sustainability objectives; and that a conjunctive use strategy, with winter groundwater recharge and periphery ponds storage, achieved acceptable measures of sustainability under multiple uncertainties, including a hypothetical pumping curtailment. The process developed a shared understanding of the vulnerabilities of the local groundwater situation and proved valuable in evaluating strategies to overcome them.