Twenty-first Annual Report of the Mojave Basin Area Watermaster

Mojave Basin Area Watermaster | May 1st, 2015

Twenty-first century hydroclimate: A continually changing baseline, with more frequent extremes

National Academy of Sciences (NAS) | March 14th, 2022

Variability in hydroclimate impacts natural and human systems worldwide. In particular, both decadal variability and extreme precipitation events have substantial effect

Variability in hydroclimate impacts natural and human systems worldwide. In particular, both decadal variability and extreme precipitation events have substantial effects and are anticipated to be strongly influenced by climate change. From a practical perspective, these impacts will be felt relative to the continuously evolving background climate. Removing the underlying forced trend is therefore necessary to assess the relative impacts, but to date, the small size of most climate-model ensembles has made it difficult to do this. Here we use an archive of large ensembles run under a high-emissions scenario to determine how decadal “megadrought” and “megapluvial” events—and shorter-term precipitation extremes—will vary relative to that changing baseline. When the trend is retained, mean state changes dominate: In fact, soil moisture changes are so large in some regions that conditions that would be considered a megadrought or pluvial event today are projected to become average. Time-of-emergence calculations suggest that in some regions including Europe and western North America, this shift may have already taken place and could be imminent elsewhere: Emergence of drought/pluvial conditions occurs over 61% of the global land surface (excluding Antarctica) by 2080. Relative to the changing baseline, megadrought-/megapluvial risk either will not change or is slightly reduced. However, the increased frequency and intensity of both extreme wet and dry precipitation events will likely present adaptation challenges beyond anything currently experienced. In many regions, resilience against future hazards will require adapting to an ever-changing “normal,” characterized by unprecedented aridification/wetting punctuated by more severe extremes.

U.S. Geological Survey Integrated Water Availability Assessment—2010–20, Chapter A

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | January 15th, 2025

This is one chapter in a multichapter report that assesses water availability in the United States for water years 2010–20. This work was conducted as part of the fulfi

This is one chapter in a multichapter report that assesses water availability in the United States for water years 2010–20. This work was conducted as part of the fulfillment of the mandates of Subtitle F of the Omnibus Public Land Management Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-11), also known as the SECURE Water Act. As such, this work examines the spatial and temporal distribution of water quantity and quality in surface water and groundwater, as related to human and ecosystem needs and as affected by human and natural influences. Chapter A (this chapter) introduces the National Integrated Water Availability Assessment and provides important background and definitions for how the report characterizes water availability and its components. Chapter A also presents the key findings of Chapters B–F and thus acts as a summary of the entire report. Chapter B (Gorski and others, 2025) is a national assessment of water supply, which is the quantity of water supplied through climatic inputs. Chapter C (Erickson and others, 2025) is a national assessment of water quality, which is the chemical and physical characteristics of water. Chapter D (Medalie and others, 2025) assesses water use including withdrawals and consumptive use in the conterminous United States. Chapter E (Scholl and others, 2025) presents an analysis of factors affecting future water availability under changing climate conditions. The National Integrated Water Availability Assessment culminates with Chapter F (Stets and others, 2025a), which is an integrated assessment of water availability that considers the amount and quality of water coupled with the suitability of that water for specific uses. Together, these six chapters constitute the National Integrated Water Availability Assessment for water years 2010–20.

UN-Water Analytical Brief on Unconventional Water Resources

United Nations (UN) | June 5th, 2020

Increasing water scarcity is recognized as a key challenge to sustainable development and major cause of conflict, social unrest and changes to traditional migration rout

Increasing water scarcity is recognized as a key challenge to sustainable development and major cause of conflict, social unrest and changes to traditional migration routes and new migration patterns. At the same time water is increasingly considered as an instrument for international cooperation to support food production, livelihoods, ecosystems, climate change adaption, and sustainable development. As water scarcity is set to continue and intensify in dry areas, the world at large is in danger of leaving the water scarcity challenge to future generations who will be confronted with the consequences of today’s practices. Thus, water-scarce areas must sustainably access and utilize every available option for water resources in order to minimize the pressure that continues to grow. Conventional water provisioning approaches relying on snowfall, rainfall and river runoff are not enough to meet growing freshwater demand in water-scarce areas. Considering the water-related sustainable development challenges in arid regions, unconventional water resources are an emerging opportunity to narrow the water demand-supply gap. There are fragmented, but growing, examples of using unconventional water resources across the world to boost water supplies to address water scarcity.

Unprecedented continental drying, shrinking freshwater availability, and increasing land contributions to sea level rise

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | July 25th, 2025

Changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) are a critical indicator of freshwater availability. We use NASA GRACE/GRACE- FO data to show that the continents have undergon

Changes in terrestrial water storage (TWS) are a critical indicator of freshwater availability. We use NASA GRACE/GRACE- FO data to show that the continents have undergone unprecedented TWS loss since 2002. Areas experiencing drying increased by twice the size of California annually, creating “mega-drying” regions across the Northern Hemisphere. While most of the world’s dry/wet areas continue to get drier/wetter, dry areas are now drying faster than wet areas are wetting. Changes in TWS are driven by high-latitude water losses, intense Central American/European droughts, and groundwater depletion, which accounts for 68% of TWS loss over non-glaciated continental regions. “Continental drying” is having profound global impacts. Since 2002, 75% of the population lives in 101 countries that have been losing freshwater water. Furthermore, the continents now contribute more freshwater to sea level rise than the ice sheets, and drying regions now contribute more than land glaciers and ice caps. Urgent action is required to prepare for the major impacts of results presented

Updating and recalibrating the integrated Santa Rosa Plain Hydrologic Model to assess stream depletion and to simulate future climate and management scenarios in Santa Rosa, Sonoma County, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | March 10th, 2025

The Santa Rosa Plain Hydrologic Model (SRPHM) was developed and published in 2014 through a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Sonoma Water to an

The Santa Rosa Plain Hydrologic Model (SRPHM) was developed and published in 2014 through a collaboration between the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and Sonoma Water to analyze the hydrologic system in the Santa Rosa Plain watershed, help meet the increasing demand for fresh water, and prepare for future uncertainties in water resources. The original model simulated hydrological conditions and water use from water years 1975 to 2010. Recently (2023), the USGS, in cooperation with the California State Water Resources Control Board and Sonoma Water, updated the SRPHM model to extend its simulation period to the end of the 2018 calendar year, incorporate new estimates of rural and agricultural water use, and use an efficient input format for climate variables. The updated model was recalibrated, and evaluation of the new model calibration is included in this report. This report presents the results of comparing the hydraulic heads, streamflow, and groundwater budget simulated by the updated model with those generated by the original model and observed data. The main difference in the simulated budget between the original and updated SRPHM is the estimates of agricultural pumping, rural domestic pumping, and return flow generated from rural water use that was not simulated in the original model.

Updating the CALVIN Hydro-Economic Optimization Model of California: Central Valley Groundwater

University of California, Davis (UC Davis) | July 11th, 2012

Updates are being made to Central Valley groundwater in CALVIN, a hydro-economic model of California’s intertied water supply and delivery system. These updates reflect

Updates are being made to Central Valley groundwater in CALVIN, a hydro-economic model of California’s intertied water supply and delivery system. These updates reflect better estimates of water demands, groundwater availability, and local water management opportunities. This poster focuses on updating CALVIN groundwater parameters based on California Department of Water Resources’ (DWR) California Central Valley Groundwater-Surface Water Simulation Model (C2VSIM) and the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Central Valley Hydrologic Model (CVHM) model inputs and results. Two CALVIN update projects, using the DWR and USGS groundwater models, are underway to improve groundwater representation including basin inflows, reuse, return flows, capacities, and pumping costs. These sub-projects will result in a CALVIN model with updated groundwater representation based on C2VSIM and CVHM. This poster shows a preliminary comparison of these sub-projects and a summary comparison between the DWR and USGS models.

Urban hydrology and water management— Present and future challenges

Urban Water (Elsevier) | March 1st, 1999

Urban hydrology is an applied science that will have an increasing role to play in the sustainability of human societies. Facing present growth of urban population, it is

Urban hydrology is an applied science that will have an increasing role to play in the sustainability of human societies. Facing present growth of urban population, it is increasingly difficult to find and utilize new sources of water necessary to satisfy growing water demand. For the poor, the residents of peri-urban and squatter areas, an ultimate poverty, the poverty of lacking clean water, is a result. To remove this kind of poverty should be a first priority target for all people and, especially, for people dealing with water management in urban areas. Growth of urban areas brings significant changes in physical properties of land surface increasing integrated vulnerability of inhabitants, agricultural land and rural ecological life supporting systems. Performance of technical solutions depends on climate as well as on social, economical and cultural conditions. Findings from urban hydrological studies based on collection of urban hydrological data, calculations and modeling constitute a necessary fundamental for meaningful water management not only in urban areas but also in entire river basins. Future challenges in urban water management include development of new technical solutions as well as logistic and organizational methods in order to turn present problems into future opportunities. The following current and emerging challenges are discussed in the paper: delivery of drinking water supply for growing cities, water for sanitation versus sanitation without water, recycling of wastewater nutrients, wastewater irrigation, urban agriculture, water to feed depleted aquifers, thoughts about possible future new system solutions, social equity and transfer of knowledge and new technology.

Urban Water Demand in California to 2100: Incorporating Climate Change

Pacific Institute | August 28th, 2012

Climate change will have significant impacts in California not just on water supply, but also on water demand. A new, free tool from the Pacific Institute* helps water

Climate change will have significant impacts in California not just on water supply, but also on water demand. A new, free tool from the Pacific Institute* helps water managers to forecast urban water demand with four global climate change models and compare different possible futures to the year 2100 by altering greenhouse gas emissions, population projections, conservation and efficiency measures, and more. The research shows climate change will cause increased water use in California’s cities and suburbs, even as water supply is expected to diminish. Urban water use – residential plus commercial, industrial, and institutional uses – accounts for over 20% of the water use in California, and up to half of urban water use is outdoors. The new report Urban Water Demand in California to 2100: Incorporating Climate Change describes how warming due to climate change is causing increases in water demand for landscapes, and will continue to drive up future water demand, particularly as more Californians settle in warmer, drier inland areas. The Pacific Institute ran a number of scenarios through 2100. The analysis finds that climate change alone could increase urban water demand in 2100 by 8% percent, or around 1 million acre-feet, under a medium-high greenhouse gas emissions scenario. That is the amount of water needed to satisfy the current household needs of 6.7 million Californians. “A million acre-feet of water is significant, and, of course, climate is not the only driver affecting demand. But factoring levels of climate change into the mix is critical,” said Dr. Juliet Christian-Smith of the Pacific Institute Water Program. “Future water use in California depends on a range of factors – technological, political, and economic – many of which are uncertain, but water utilities still need to plan. We created a flexible modeling tool that allows users to run their own scenarios, comparing how a range of factors in a range of climate change scenarios is likely to affect future patterns of water use in their specific areas.”

Urban Water Revolution: Sustainable Water Futures for California Cities

American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) | July 15th, 2020

California has consistently altered natural water resources to provide water for its growing population and to support the fifth largest economy in the world. However, th

California has consistently altered natural water resources to provide water for its growing population and to support the fifth largest economy in the world. However, the old ways of coping with the California’s urban water needs—overdraft of groundwater, stream depletion, and greater imports—will no longer meet the demands of the 21st century. We examine California’s water history and present several promising solutions to the challenge of urban water security: a combination of conservation and efficiency, desalination, stormwater capture, water re-use, and water banking. These options for urban water, including direct potable reuse, will help dry cities in California and elsewhere achieve more sustainable and diversified water supply portfolios. Pilot and demonstration-scale projects, along with innovations in systems management and new regulations, point the way toward more resilient water supplies for dry cities. Movement toward regional collaboration, implementation of new technologies, and new regulatory regimes are helping to realize a one-water vision. Different cities will develop their own water supply portfolio options appropriate for their geography, values, and urban form on a path toward meeting the urban water challenges of this century.