Precipitation in a warming world: Assessing projected hydro‐climate changes in California and other Mediterranean climate regions

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | September 7th, 2017

In most Mediterranean climate (MedClim) regions around the world, global climate models (GCMs) consistently project drier futures. In California, however, proj

In most Mediterranean climate (MedClim) regions around the world, global climate models (GCMs) consistently project drier futures. In California, however, projections of changes in annual precipitation are inconsistent. Analysis of daily precipitation in 30 GCMs reveals patterns in projected hydrometeorology over each of the five MedClm regions globally and helps disentangle their causes. MedClim regions, except California, are expected to dry via decreased frequency of winter precipitation. Frequencies of extreme precipitation, however, are projected to increase over the two MedClim regions of the Northern Hemisphere where projected warming is strongest. The increase in heavy and extreme precipitation is particularly robust over California, where it is only partially offset by projected decreases in low-medium intensity precipitation. Over the Mediterranean Basin, however, losses from decreasing frequency of low-medium-intensity precipitation are projected to dominate gains from intensifying projected extreme precipitation. MedClim regions are projected to become more sub-tropical, i.e. made dryer via pole-ward expanding subtropical subsidence. California’s more nuanced hydrological future reflects a precarious balance between the expanding subtropical high from the south and the south-eastward extending Aleutian low from the north-west. These dynamical mechanisms and thermodynamic moistening of the warming atmosphere result in increased horizontal water vapor transport, bolstering extreme precipitation events.

Precipitation Regime Change in Western North America: the Role of Atmospheric Rivers

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | July 9th, 2019

Daily precipitation in California has been projected to become less frequent even as precipitation extremes intensify, leading to uncertainty in the overall re

Daily precipitation in California has been projected to become less frequent even as precipitation extremes intensify, leading to uncertainty in the overall response to climate warming. Precipitation extremes are historically associated with Atmospheric Rivers (ARs). Sixteen global climate modelsare evaluated for realism in modeled historical AR behavior and contribution of the resulting dailyprecipitation to annual total precipitation over Western North America. The five most realistic models display consistent changes in future AR behavior, constraining the spread of the full ensemble. They, moreover, project increasing year-to-year variability of total annual precipitation, particularly over California, where change in total annual precipitation is not projected with confidence. Focusing on three representative river basins along the West Coast, we show that, while the decrease in precipitation frequency is mostly due to non-AR events, the increase in heavy and extreme precipitation is almost entirely due to ARs. This research demonstrates that examining meteorological causes of precipitation regime change can lead to better and more nuanced understanding of climate projections. It highlights the critical role of future changes in ARs to Western water resources, especially over California.

Precipitation regime classification for the Mojave Desert: Implications for fire occurrence

Journal of Arid Environments (Elsevier) | September 29th, 2015

Long periods of drought or above-average precipitation affect Mojave Desert vegetation condition, biomass and susceptibility to fire. Changes in the seasonality of preci

Long periods of drought or above-average precipitation affect Mojave Desert vegetation condition, biomass and susceptibility to fire. Changes in the seasonality of precipitation alter the likelihood of lightning, a key ignition source for fires. The objectives of this study were to characterize the relationship between recent, historic, and future precipitation patterns and fire. Classifying monthly precipitation data from 1971 to 2010 reveals four precipitation regimes: low winter/low summer, moderate winter/moderate summer, high winter/low summer and high winter/high summer. Two regimes with summer monsoonal precipitation covered only 40% of the Mojave Desert ecoregion but contain 88% of the area burned and 95% of the repeat burn area. Classifying historic precipitation for early-century (wet) and mid-century (drought) periods reveals distinct shifts in regime boundaries. Early-century results are similar to current, while the mid-century results show a sizeable reduction in area of regimes with a strong monsoonal component. Such a shift would suggest that fires during the mid-century period would be minimal and anecdotal records confirm this. Predicted precipitation patterns from downscaled global climate models indicate numerous epochs of high winter precipitation, inferring higher fire potential for many multi-decade periods during the next century.

Precipitation shifts over western North America as a result of declining Arctic sea ice cover: The coupled system response

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | July 21st, 2009

Changes in Arctic sea ice cover have the potential to impact midlatitude climate. A previous sensitivity study utilizing the National Center for Atmospheric Resea

Changes in Arctic sea ice cover have the potential to impact midlatitude climate. A previous sensitivity study utilizing the National Center for Atmospheric Research’s (NCAR) atmospheric general circulation model [AGCM; Community Climate Model, version 3 (CCM3)] to explore climate sensitivity to declining Arctic sea ice cover suggested that, as Arctic sea ice cover is reduced, precipitation patterns over western North America will shift toward dryer conditions in southwestern North America and wetter conditions in northwestern North America. Here, three complementary lines of research validate and explore the robustness of this possible climate change impact: 1) repetition of the previous sensitivity study (specified constant Arctic sea ice cover and atmospheric CO2) with an updated version of the NCAR AGCM [third Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3)], 2) investigation of the climate response to dynamically reduced Arctic sea ice cover (driven by a quadrupling of atmospheric CO2) in the coupled NCAR Community Climate System Model.

Precipitation variability increases in a warmer climate

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | December 21st, 2017

Understanding changes in precipitation variability is essential for a complete explanation of the hydrologic cycle’s response to warming and its impacts. Whil

Understanding changes in precipitation variability is essential for a complete explanation of the hydrologic cycle’s response to warming and its impacts. While changes in mean and extreme precipitation have been studied intensively, precipitation variability has received less attention, despite its theoretical and practical importance. Here, we show that precipitation variability in most climatemodels increases over a majority of global land area in response to warming (66% of land has a robust increase in variability of seasonal-mean precipitation). Comparing recent decades to RCP8.5 projections for the end of the 21st century, we find that in the global, multi-model mean, precipitation variability increases 3–4% K−1 globally, 4–5% K−1 over land and 2–4% K−1 over ocean, and is remarkably robust on a range of timescales from daily to decadal. Precipitation variability increases by at least as much as mean precipitation and less than moisture and extreme precipitation for most models, regions, and timescales. We interpret this as being related to an increase in moisture which is partially mitigated by weakening circulation. We show that changes in observed daily variability in station data are consistent with increased variability.

Predicting Streamflow Elasticity Based on Percolation Theory and Ecological Optimality

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | July 20th, 2023

Preparing for New Risks: Addressing Climate Change in California’s Urban Water Management Plans

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | June 20th, 2013

Urban Water Management Plans (UWMPs) are a central component of California’s efforts to assure reliable water supplies, particularly during drought conditions that are

Urban Water Management Plans (UWMPs) are a central component of California’s efforts to assure reliable water supplies, particularly during drought conditions that are frequently experienced in the state. Prepared by water suppliers every five years, UWMPs include supply and demand projections for the next 20 years, and describe strategies to assure adequate supplies during average, single-­year, and multi-­year drought conditions. UWMPs also contain plans to implement a 20% reduction in per capita urban water use by the year 2020, as required under the Water Conservation Act of 2009 (SBX7-­7). Climate change is introducing new risks in water planning, such as increasing temperatures, reduced snowpack, changing precipitation patterns, and accelerating sea level rise, which are already being observed in the state. It is increasingly important for water suppliers to consider how these trends are impacting water supply, demand, and drought patterns. Water suppliers can also make important contributions to reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs), through energy savings from water conservation as well as other measures. In its guidance to water suppliers for preparing 2010 UWMPs, the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) included an optional section focused on consideration of climate change impacts and GHG emissions. This study assesses how water suppliers have incorporated these factors into their 2010 plans. Drawing upon a sample of 2010 UWMPs, it examines the nature and extent of climate change discussion and analysis, and assesses how climate change risks have been incorporated into water supply and demand projections. The report also provides recommendations for how DWR could improve its guidance for 2015 UWMPs to support water suppliers in addressing climate change. All public and investor-­owned utilities serving 3,000 customers or supplying at least 3,000 acre-­feet of water annually are required to submit an Urban Water Management Plan to DWR every five years. Of the approximately 400 agencies submitting UWMPs, most are relatively small, with 90% serving less than 300,000 people, and 40% serving less than 50,000.  Most are public entities, but some are private companies, including three investor-­owned utilities with multiple service areas across the state. Large and small water suppliers tend to differ in their access to resources for planning and analysis of issues such as climate change. For many small suppliers, UWMP preparation serves as their primary long-­term planning process. Suppliers also vary in the nature of their vulnerability to drought and the impacts of climate change. Larger suppliers usually have multiple sources of supply, while small suppliers are more likely to rely on a single source, especially groundwater. These small utilities are less likely to have relationships with other suppliers, thereby reducing their options for coping with severe droughts. This study is based on an analysis of 49 individually submitted UWMPs, seven regional UWMPs, and UWMPs from three investor-­owned utilities with multiple service areas across the state. The sample was stratified so that it represents water suppliers of all sizes. It includes all large suppliers (serving 300,000 or more customers), and 10% of medium-­sized and small suppliers (serving 50,000 – 300,000 and less than 50,000 customers, respectively). Each UWMP was analyzed for its content related to climate change, and classified according to the degree and focus of discussion. This report is also informed by informal consultations with representatives of water supply agencies of different sizes.

Preparing Scientists, Policy-Makers, and Managers for a Fast-Forward Future

University of California, Davis (UC Davis) | June 15th, 2021

Priorities for California's Water: Responding to the Changing Climate

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | November 18th, 2021

Water is central to how California adapts to a changing climate. To those of us steeped in the complexities of managing the state’s water resources, the current fast-mo

Water is central to how California adapts to a changing climate. To those of us steeped in the complexities of managing the state’s water resources, the current fast-moving drought—coming on the heels of the record-breaking 2012–16 drought—is a stark reminder that we must accelerate preparation for the disruptive changes underway. Californians have taken steps to address major threats to our water resources. But a recent IPCC report underscored that the climate is changing faster than anticipated, and that many of these changes are already locked in. Rising temperatures are making our winters shorter and our droughts more intense, outpacing our ability to manage water supplies and the natural environment. We need to act with urgency to adapt to these changes. And we need to rethink how we store water. This brief examines how the current drought and a changing climate are affecting California’s ability to manage water and lays out priority actions to address major challenges—including some urgent short-term actions should the drought continue into next year.

Priorities for California’s Water

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | November 14th, 2022

This report considers the state of water in California: What changes are we seeing now, and what should we expect in the near future? Then it examines how these climate s

This report considers the state of water in California: What changes are we seeing now, and what should we expect in the near future? Then it examines how these climate shifts will impact urban and rural communities, agriculture, and the environment. Finally, it explores wet-year strategies that will help Californians get through the dry years.