Precipitation variability increases in a warmer climate

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | December 21st, 2017

Understanding changes in precipitation variability is essential for a complete explanation of the hydrologic cycle’s response to warming and its impacts. Whil

Understanding changes in precipitation variability is essential for a complete explanation of the hydrologic cycle’s response to warming and its impacts. While changes in mean and extreme precipitation have been studied intensively, precipitation variability has received less attention, despite its theoretical and practical importance. Here, we show that precipitation variability in most climatemodels increases over a majority of global land area in response to warming (66% of land has a robust increase in variability of seasonal-mean precipitation). Comparing recent decades to RCP8.5 projections for the end of the 21st century, we find that in the global, multi-model mean, precipitation variability increases 3–4% K−1 globally, 4–5% K−1 over land and 2–4% K−1 over ocean, and is remarkably robust on a range of timescales from daily to decadal. Precipitation variability increases by at least as much as mean precipitation and less than moisture and extreme precipitation for most models, regions, and timescales. We interpret this as being related to an increase in moisture which is partially mitigated by weakening circulation. We show that changes in observed daily variability in station data are consistent with increased variability.

Predicting flood damage probability across the conterminous United States

Environmental Research Letters (IOP) | February 21st, 2022

Floods are the leading cause of natural disaster damages in the United States, with billions of dollars incurred every year in the form of government payouts, property da

Floods are the leading cause of natural disaster damages in the United States, with billions of dollars incurred every year in the form of government payouts, property damages, and agricultural losses. The Federal Emergency Management Agency oversees the delineation of floodplains to mitigate damages, but disparities exist between locations designated as high risk and where flood damages occur due to land use and climate changes and incomplete floodplain mapping. We harnessed publicly available geospatial datasets and random forest algorithms to analyze the spatial distribution and underlying drivers of flood damage probability (FDP) caused by excessive rainfall and overflowing water bodies across the conterminous United States. From this, we produced the first spatially complete map of FDP for the nation, along with spatially explicit standard errors for four selected cities. We trained models using the locations of historical reported flood damage events (n = 71 434) and a suite of geospatial predictors (e.g. flood severity, climate, socio-economic exposure, topographic variables, soil properties, and hydrologic characteristics). We developed independent models for each hydrologic unit code level 2 watershed and generated a FDP for each 100 m pixel. Our model classified damage or no damage with an average area under the curve accuracy of 0.75; however, model performance varied by environmental conditions, with certain land cover classes (e.g. forest) resulting in higher error rates than others (e.g. wetlands). Our results identified FDP hotspots across multiple spatial and regional scales, with high probabilities common in both inland and coastal regions. The highest flood damage probabilities tended to be in areas of low elevation, in close proximity to streams, with extreme precipitation, and with high urban road density. Given rapid environmental changes, our study demonstrates an efficient approach for updating FDP estimates across the nation.

Predicting Streamflow Elasticity Based on Percolation Theory and Ecological Optimality

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | July 20th, 2023

Preparing for New Risks: Addressing Climate Change in California’s Urban Water Management Plans

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | June 20th, 2013

Urban Water Management Plans (UWMPs) are a central component of California’s efforts to assure reliable water supplies, particularly during drought conditions that are

Urban Water Management Plans (UWMPs) are a central component of California’s efforts to assure reliable water supplies, particularly during drought conditions that are frequently experienced in the state. Prepared by water suppliers every five years, UWMPs include supply and demand projections for the next 20 years, and describe strategies to assure adequate supplies during average, single-­year, and multi-­year drought conditions. UWMPs also contain plans to implement a 20% reduction in per capita urban water use by the year 2020, as required under the Water Conservation Act of 2009 (SBX7-­7). Climate change is introducing new risks in water planning, such as increasing temperatures, reduced snowpack, changing precipitation patterns, and accelerating sea level rise, which are already being observed in the state. It is increasingly important for water suppliers to consider how these trends are impacting water supply, demand, and drought patterns. Water suppliers can also make important contributions to reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs), through energy savings from water conservation as well as other measures. In its guidance to water suppliers for preparing 2010 UWMPs, the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) included an optional section focused on consideration of climate change impacts and GHG emissions. This study assesses how water suppliers have incorporated these factors into their 2010 plans. Drawing upon a sample of 2010 UWMPs, it examines the nature and extent of climate change discussion and analysis, and assesses how climate change risks have been incorporated into water supply and demand projections. The report also provides recommendations for how DWR could improve its guidance for 2015 UWMPs to support water suppliers in addressing climate change. All public and investor-­owned utilities serving 3,000 customers or supplying at least 3,000 acre-­feet of water annually are required to submit an Urban Water Management Plan to DWR every five years. Of the approximately 400 agencies submitting UWMPs, most are relatively small, with 90% serving less than 300,000 people, and 40% serving less than 50,000.  Most are public entities, but some are private companies, including three investor-­owned utilities with multiple service areas across the state. Large and small water suppliers tend to differ in their access to resources for planning and analysis of issues such as climate change. For many small suppliers, UWMP preparation serves as their primary long-­term planning process. Suppliers also vary in the nature of their vulnerability to drought and the impacts of climate change. Larger suppliers usually have multiple sources of supply, while small suppliers are more likely to rely on a single source, especially groundwater. These small utilities are less likely to have relationships with other suppliers, thereby reducing their options for coping with severe droughts. This study is based on an analysis of 49 individually submitted UWMPs, seven regional UWMPs, and UWMPs from three investor-­owned utilities with multiple service areas across the state. The sample was stratified so that it represents water suppliers of all sizes. It includes all large suppliers (serving 300,000 or more customers), and 10% of medium-­sized and small suppliers (serving 50,000 – 300,000 and less than 50,000 customers, respectively). Each UWMP was analyzed for its content related to climate change, and classified according to the degree and focus of discussion. This report is also informed by informal consultations with representatives of water supply agencies of different sizes.

Preparing Scientists, Policy-Makers, and Managers for a Fast-Forward Future

University of California, Davis (UC Davis) | June 15th, 2021

Priorities for California's Water: Responding to the Changing Climate

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | November 18th, 2021

Water is central to how California adapts to a changing climate. To those of us steeped in the complexities of managing the state’s water resources, the current fast-mo

Water is central to how California adapts to a changing climate. To those of us steeped in the complexities of managing the state’s water resources, the current fast-moving drought—coming on the heels of the record-breaking 2012–16 drought—is a stark reminder that we must accelerate preparation for the disruptive changes underway. Californians have taken steps to address major threats to our water resources. But a recent IPCC report underscored that the climate is changing faster than anticipated, and that many of these changes are already locked in. Rising temperatures are making our winters shorter and our droughts more intense, outpacing our ability to manage water supplies and the natural environment. We need to act with urgency to adapt to these changes. And we need to rethink how we store water. This brief examines how the current drought and a changing climate are affecting California’s ability to manage water and lays out priority actions to address major challenges—including some urgent short-term actions should the drought continue into next year.

Priorities for California’s Water

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | November 14th, 2022

This report considers the state of water in California: What changes are we seeing now, and what should we expect in the near future? Then it examines how these climate s

This report considers the state of water in California: What changes are we seeing now, and what should we expect in the near future? Then it examines how these climate shifts will impact urban and rural communities, agriculture, and the environment. Finally, it explores wet-year strategies that will help Californians get through the dry years.

Priorities for California’s Water: Are We Ready for Climate Change?

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | November 12th, 2024

California faces many immediate challenges around water management, but as the record-breaking heat of 2024 makes clear, temperatures are rising—and Californians are co

California faces many immediate challenges around water management, but as the record-breaking heat of 2024 makes clear, temperatures are rising—and Californians are contending with the consequences. In a PPIC poll earlier this year, residents named climate change, forest fires and wildfires, and water supply and drought as the most important environmental issues facing the state. 

Probabilistic estimates of future changes in California temperature and precipitation using statistical and dynamical downscaling

Climate Dynamics (Springer) | March 30th, 2012

Sixteen global general circulation models were used to develop probabilistic projections of temperature (T) and precipitation (P) changes over California by the 2060s.

Sixteen global general circulation models were used to develop probabilistic projections of temperature (T) and precipitation (P) changes over California by the 2060s. The global models were downscaled with two statistical techniques and three nested dynamical regional climate models, although not all global models were downscaled with all techniques. Both monthly and daily timescale changes in T and P are addressed, the latter being important for a range of applications in energy use, water management, and agriculture. The T changes tend to agree more across downscaling techniques than the P changes. Year-to-year natural internal climate variability is roughly of similar magnitude to the projected T changes. In the monthly average, July temperatures shift enough that that the hottest July found in any simulation over the historical period becomes a modestly cool July in the future period. Januarys as cold as any found in the historical period are still found in the 2060s, but the median and maximum monthly average temperatures increase notably. Annual and seasonal P changes are small compared to interannual or intermodel variability. However, the annual change is composed of seasonally varying changes that are themselves much larger, but tend to cancel in the annual mean. Winters show modestly wetter conditions in the North of the state, while spring and autumn show less precipitation. The dynamical downscaling techniques project increasing precipitation in the Southeastern part of the state, which is influenced by the North American monsoon, a feature that is not captured by the statistical downscaling.

Procedures to evaluate sea-level change: impacts, responses, and adaptation

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) | June 30th, 2014