Post-fire evapotranspiration estimates in ground truth limited environments

Elsevier | June 16th, 2025

Wildfires are catastrophic events with increasing incidence and severity, especially in Mediterranean climates like California. Wildfires can drastically change the hydro

Wildfires are catastrophic events with increasing incidence and severity, especially in Mediterranean climates like California. Wildfires can drastically change the hydrologic components of a watershed and require consistent and reliable data to monitor recovery. With the upcoming retirement of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), a reliable evapotranspiration (ET) product at the subcatchment scale is necessary to monitor longitudinal ET, particularly post-fire. We evaluate NASA JPL's ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS), MODIS, and the North American Land Data Assimilation System phase 2 (NLDAS-2) to assess performance in longitudinal evapotranspiration (ET) estimates and post-fire ET change detection using correlation analysis and linear regression for twelve subwatersheds located within the August Complex Fire (August 2020) in Trinity County, the Delta Fire (September 2018) in Shasta and Trinity Counties, and the Creek Fire (September 2020) in Fresno County for a four-year period. We found that MODIS and ECOSTRESS showed the strongest correlation in daily ET estimates (mean r = 0.56), while correlations between ECOSTRESS-NLDAS-2 (r = 0.06) and MODIS-NLDAS-2 (r = 0.30) were notably weaker. However, ECOSTRESS data availability constrained post-fire change detection and annual ET sum assessments. Its higher spatial resolution and correlation with MODIS have potential for finer-scale model parameterization of post-fire landcover changes, particularly vegetation loss in place of MODIS. NLDAS-2 can be useful in monthly and annual patterns at larger scales. By comparing ECOSTRESS with established platforms of ET estimation, we validate ECOSTRESS as a tool for post-fire ET monitoring, especially in areas where ground truth data is unavailable. These findings can allow for more informed and effective land management decisions, particularly in wildfire and vegetation monitoring.

Potential evapotranspiration and continental drying

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | June 6th, 2016

By various measures (drought area and intensity, climatic aridity index, and climatic water deficits), some observational analyses have suggested that much of the Earth�

By various measures (drought area and intensity, climatic aridity index, and climatic water deficits), some observational analyses have suggested that much of the Earth’s land has been drying during recent decades, but such drying seems inconsistent with observations of dryland greening and decreasing pan evaporation. ‘Offline’ analyses of climate-model outputs from anthropogenic climate change (ACC) experiments portend continuation of putative drying through the twenty-first century, despite an expected increase in global land precipitation. A ubiquitous increase in estimates of potential evapotranspiration (PET), driven by atmospheric warming, underlies the drying trends, but may be a methodological artefact. Here we show that the PET estimator commonly used (the Penman–Monteith PET for either an open-water surface or a reference crop) severely overpredicts the changes in non-water-stressed evapotranspiration computed in the climate models themselves in ACC experiments. This overprediction is partially due to neglect of stomatal conductance reductions commonly induced by increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations in climate models. Our findings imply that historical and future tendencies towards continental drying, as characterized by offline-computed runoff, as well as other PET-dependent metrics, may be considerably weaker and less extensive than previously thought.

Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services in the San Francisco Bay Area

California Energy Commission (CEC) | July 31st, 2012

The San Francisco Bay Area contains a rich array of plant and animal biodiversity and an extensive open space network, embedded within a major metropolitan area. Terrestr

The San Francisco Bay Area contains a rich array of plant and animal biodiversity and an extensive open space network, embedded within a major metropolitan area. Terrestrial habitats in the San Francisco Bay Area support a wide range of ecosystem services, including carbon storage, forage production, enhanced water supply and quality, crop pollination, and outdoor recreation. The distribution of habitats and plant and animal species is strongly influenced by spatial variation in climate, and is thus expected to change in response to changes in regional and global climate. Current research suggests that most vegetation types will shift toward the coast, especially under scenarios with warmer and drier conditions; range contractions and reduced diversity are projected for California endemic plants in the Bay Area. Bird communities are projected to undergo significant reorganization, leading to altered interactions and community structure. Improved modeling at fine spatial scales represents an important priority to reduce uncertainty in these projections. Climate change is expected to strongly affect ecosystem services. Carbon storage in soils and vegetation could contribute to California’s carbon emissions reduction strategy, but current models project reduced carbon storage in trees due to climate change. Altered agricultural management strategies, including conversion to perennial crops, have the potential to increase soil carbon storage. Climate change impacts on vegetation, hydrology and habitat integrity may negatively affect fire regimes, forage production, water supplies, crop pollination services, and outdoor recreation and quality of life in the San Francisco Bay Area, but few specific projections are available. Strategic conservation planning in the Bay Area is under way to enhance biodiversity conservation through continued open space acquisition. Conservation of heterogeneous landscapes will provide resilience in the face of climate change. Improved understanding of projected climate change impacts on natural habitats will contribute to the development of regional adaptation strategies.

Potential impacts of increased coastal flooding in California due to sea-level rise

Climatic Change (Springer) | November 24th, 2011

California is likely to experience increased coastal flooding and erosion caused by sea-level rise over the next century, affecting the state’s population, infrastructu

California is likely to experience increased coastal flooding and erosion caused by sea-level rise over the next century, affecting the state’s population, infrastructure, and environment. As part of a set of studies on climate change impacts to California, this paper analyzes the potential impacts from projected sea-level rise if no actions are taken to protect the coast (a “no-adaptation scenario”), focusing on impacts to the state’s population and infrastructure. Heberger et al. (2009) also covered effects on wetlands, costs of coastal defenses, and social and environmental justice related to sea-level rise. We analyzed the effect of a medium-high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2 in IPCC 2000) and included updated projections of sea-level rise based on work by Rahmstorf (Science 315(5810): 368, 2007). Under this scenario, sea levels rise by 1.4 m by the year 2100, far exceeding historical observed water level increases. By the end of this century, coastal flooding would, under this scenario, threaten regions that currently are home to approximately 480,000 people and $100 billion worth of property. Among those especially vulnerable are large numbers of low-income people and communities of color. A wide range of critical infrastructure, such as roads, hospitals, schools, emergency facilities, wastewater treatment plants, and power plants will also be at risk. Sea-level rise will inevitably change the character of California’s coast; practices and policies should be put in place to mitigate the potentially costly and life-threatening impacts of sea-level rise.

Potential Impacts of Reduced Inflows to the Salton Sea: Forecasting Non-market Damages

American Water Resources Association (AWRA) | September 28th, 2022

Potential local extirpation of an imperiled freshwater mussel population from wildfire runoff

Western North America Naturalist | December 17th, 2022

PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and the Environment

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | July 28th, 2022

With California facing a severe drought and wildfire season, public awareness has risen of the impact of climate change as well as state policies to reduce greenhouse gas

With California facing a severe drought and wildfire season, public awareness has risen of the impact of climate change as well as state policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. A sharp increase in petroleum prices has led to discussions about expanding oil production and renewable energy sources. These are among the key findings of a statewide survey on environmental issues conducted by the Public Policy Institute of California from July 8 to 15, 2022.

PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and the Environment

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | August 8th, 2024

Californians have been facing a record heat wave and wildfires across the state this summer. The state’s multibillion-dollar budget deficit prompted spending cuts for

Californians have been facing a record heat wave and wildfires across the state this summer. The state’s multibillion-dollar budget deficit prompted spending cuts for climate and energy programs. In response, the legislature approved a $10 billion state bond for the November ballot that asks voters to approve more funding for drought, floods, wildfires, coastal resilience, and extreme heat mitigation. The deep partisan divide on climate and energy policies surfaced in the presidential debate on June 27. These are the key findings of the Californians and the Environment survey on local, state, and national issues and coastal and inland topics that was conducted June 24–July 2, 2024.

Precipitation History of the Mojave Desert Region, 1893–2001

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | July 1st, 2004

The Mojave Desert region covers 152,000 square km of the Southwestern United States. Recent studies by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and other scientists suggest

The Mojave Desert region covers 152,000 square km of the Southwestern United States. Recent studies by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and other scientists suggest that the region may become drier for the next 2 to 3 decades, in a pattern similar to mid-20th century dry conditions. Because the region’s population has increased rapidly since the mid-1950s, a repeat of such a dry episode could have severe consequences not only for residents but also for the desert’s diverse and fragile ecosystems.

Precipitation in a warming world: Assessing projected hydro-climate changes in California and other Mediterranean climate regions

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | September 7th, 2017

In most Mediterranean climate (MedClim) regions around the world, global climate models (GCMs) consistently project drier futures. In California, however, proj

In most Mediterranean climate (MedClim) regions around the world, global climate models (GCMs) consistently project drier futures. In California, however, projections of changes in annual precipitation are inconsistent. Analysis of daily precipitation in 30 GCMs reveals patterns in projected hydrometeorology over each of the five MedClm regions globally and helps disentangle their causes. MedClim regions, except California, are expected to dry via decreased frequency of winter precipitation. Frequencies of extreme precipitation, however, are projected to increase over the two MedClim regions of the Northern Hemisphere where projected warming is strongest. The increase in heavy and extreme precipitation is particularly robust over California, where it is only partially offset by projected decreases in low-medium intensity precipitation. Over the Mediterranean Basin, however, losses from decreasing frequency of low-medium-intensity precipitation are projected to dominate gains from intensifying projected extreme precipitation. MedClim regions are projected to become more sub-tropical, i.e. made dryer via pole-ward expanding subtropical subsidence. California’s more nuanced hydrological future reflects a precarious balance between the expanding subtropical high from the south and the south-eastward extending Aleutian low from the north-west. These dynamical mechanisms and thermodynamic moistening of the warming atmosphere result in increased horizontal water vapor transport, bolstering extreme precipitation events.