Potential Impacts of Future Geological Storage of CO2 on the Groundwater Reservoirs in California's Central Valley

California Energy Commission (CEC) | May 1st, 2013

This study assessed the history of oil production and pressure changes in the southern portion of the San Joaquin Basin in California’s Central Valley as a reverse anal

This study assessed the history of oil production and pressure changes in the southern portion of the San Joaquin Basin in California’s Central Valley as a reverse analog for understanding the pressure response to potential geologic carbon sequestration. Sequestration involves injecting carbon dioxide into permeable strata such as those that trap oil. This results in pressure increases in the existing fluid in the subsurface that can provide a motive force for brines at those depths to migrate into groundwater, affecting its quality. The pressure can also cause differential ground surface uplift that can affect surface water flow, particularly in engineered water conveyances such as canals. The strata underlying the Central Valley have been assessed as having considerable capacity to store carbon dioxide, but the area also contains urban areas and extensive agriculture that rely on engineered surface water delivery systems and groundwater supplies. The Stevens Sand, Temblor Formation and Vedder Formation were identified as having the largest cumulative net production from typical geologic carbon sequestration depths. Two oil pools were identified in each of these stratigraphic units for more detailed analysis, which included converting fluid level data to pressure at the pool scale. Data were collected that allowed an assessment of the hydraulic connectivity of each unit. The results indicated that the Vedder was hydraulically connected at the near basin scale, the Stevens was hydraulically connected at the pool scale and was disconnected between pools and the Temblor was disconnected within pools. Researchers used these results to analyze possible brine leakage driven by geologic carbon sequestration. They also reviewed over 200 articles on historic groundwater contamination. They concluded that no instance of contamination due to upward leakage of brine in the Central Valley was reported.

Potential impacts of increased coastal flooding in California due to sea-level rise

Climatic Change (Springer) | November 24th, 2011

California is likely to experience increased coastal flooding and erosion caused by sea-level rise over the next century, affecting the state’s population, infrastructu

California is likely to experience increased coastal flooding and erosion caused by sea-level rise over the next century, affecting the state’s population, infrastructure, and environment. As part of a set of studies on climate change impacts to California, this paper analyzes the potential impacts from projected sea-level rise if no actions are taken to protect the coast (a “no-adaptation scenario”), focusing on impacts to the state’s population and infrastructure. Heberger et al. (2009) also covered effects on wetlands, costs of coastal defenses, and social and environmental justice related to sea-level rise. We analyzed the effect of a medium-high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios A2 in IPCC 2000) and included updated projections of sea-level rise based on work by Rahmstorf (Science 315(5810): 368, 2007). Under this scenario, sea levels rise by 1.4 m by the year 2100, far exceeding historical observed water level increases. By the end of this century, coastal flooding would, under this scenario, threaten regions that currently are home to approximately 480,000 people and $100 billion worth of property. Among those especially vulnerable are large numbers of low-income people and communities of color. A wide range of critical infrastructure, such as roads, hospitals, schools, emergency facilities, wastewater treatment plants, and power plants will also be at risk. Sea-level rise will inevitably change the character of California’s coast; practices and policies should be put in place to mitigate the potentially costly and life-threatening impacts of sea-level rise.

Potential local extirpation of an imperiled freshwater mussel population from wildfire runoff

Western North America Naturalist | December 17th, 2022

PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and the Environment

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | July 28th, 2022

With California facing a severe drought and wildfire season, public awareness has risen of the impact of climate change as well as state policies to reduce greenhouse gas

With California facing a severe drought and wildfire season, public awareness has risen of the impact of climate change as well as state policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. A sharp increase in petroleum prices has led to discussions about expanding oil production and renewable energy sources. These are among the key findings of a statewide survey on environmental issues conducted by the Public Policy Institute of California from July 8 to 15, 2022.

PPIC Statewide Survey: Californians and the Environment

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | August 8th, 2024

Californians have been facing a record heat wave and wildfires across the state this summer. The state’s multibillion-dollar budget deficit prompted spending cuts for

Californians have been facing a record heat wave and wildfires across the state this summer. The state’s multibillion-dollar budget deficit prompted spending cuts for climate and energy programs. In response, the legislature approved a $10 billion state bond for the November ballot that asks voters to approve more funding for drought, floods, wildfires, coastal resilience, and extreme heat mitigation. The deep partisan divide on climate and energy policies surfaced in the presidential debate on June 27. These are the key findings of the Californians and the Environment survey on local, state, and national issues and coastal and inland topics that was conducted June 24–July 2, 2024.

Precipitation History of the Mojave Desert Region, 1893–2001

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | July 1st, 2004

The Mojave Desert region covers 152,000 square km of the Southwestern United States. Recent studies by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and other scientists suggest

The Mojave Desert region covers 152,000 square km of the Southwestern United States. Recent studies by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and other scientists suggest that the region may become drier for the next 2 to 3 decades, in a pattern similar to mid-20th century dry conditions. Because the region’s population has increased rapidly since the mid-1950s, a repeat of such a dry episode could have severe consequences not only for residents but also for the desert’s diverse and fragile ecosystems.

Precipitation in a warming world: Assessing projected hydro-climate changes in California and other Mediterranean climate regions

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | September 7th, 2017

In most Mediterranean climate (MedClim) regions around the world, global climate models (GCMs) consistently project drier futures. In California, however, proj

In most Mediterranean climate (MedClim) regions around the world, global climate models (GCMs) consistently project drier futures. In California, however, projections of changes in annual precipitation are inconsistent. Analysis of daily precipitation in 30 GCMs reveals patterns in projected hydrometeorology over each of the five MedClm regions globally and helps disentangle their causes. MedClim regions, except California, are expected to dry via decreased frequency of winter precipitation. Frequencies of extreme precipitation, however, are projected to increase over the two MedClim regions of the Northern Hemisphere where projected warming is strongest. The increase in heavy and extreme precipitation is particularly robust over California, where it is only partially offset by projected decreases in low-medium intensity precipitation. Over the Mediterranean Basin, however, losses from decreasing frequency of low-medium-intensity precipitation are projected to dominate gains from intensifying projected extreme precipitation. MedClim regions are projected to become more sub-tropical, i.e. made dryer via pole-ward expanding subtropical subsidence. California’s more nuanced hydrological future reflects a precarious balance between the expanding subtropical high from the south and the south-eastward extending Aleutian low from the north-west. These dynamical mechanisms and thermodynamic moistening of the warming atmosphere result in increased horizontal water vapor transport, bolstering extreme precipitation events.

Precipitation in a warming world: Assessing projected hydro‐climate changes in California and other Mediterranean climate regions

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | September 7th, 2017

In most Mediterranean climate (MedClim) regions around the world, global climate models (GCMs) consistently project drier futures. In California, however, proj

In most Mediterranean climate (MedClim) regions around the world, global climate models (GCMs) consistently project drier futures. In California, however, projections of changes in annual precipitation are inconsistent. Analysis of daily precipitation in 30 GCMs reveals patterns in projected hydrometeorology over each of the five MedClm regions globally and helps disentangle their causes. MedClim regions, except California, are expected to dry via decreased frequency of winter precipitation. Frequencies of extreme precipitation, however, are projected to increase over the two MedClim regions of the Northern Hemisphere where projected warming is strongest. The increase in heavy and extreme precipitation is particularly robust over California, where it is only partially offset by projected decreases in low-medium intensity precipitation. Over the Mediterranean Basin, however, losses from decreasing frequency of low-medium-intensity precipitation are projected to dominate gains from intensifying projected extreme precipitation. MedClim regions are projected to become more sub-tropical, i.e. made dryer via pole-ward expanding subtropical subsidence. California’s more nuanced hydrological future reflects a precarious balance between the expanding subtropical high from the south and the south-eastward extending Aleutian low from the north-west. These dynamical mechanisms and thermodynamic moistening of the warming atmosphere result in increased horizontal water vapor transport, bolstering extreme precipitation events.

Precipitation regime classification for the Mojave Desert: Implications for fire occurrence

Journal of Arid Environments (Elsevier) | September 29th, 2015

Long periods of drought or above-average precipitation affect Mojave Desert vegetation condition, biomass and susceptibility to fire. Changes in the seasonality of preci

Long periods of drought or above-average precipitation affect Mojave Desert vegetation condition, biomass and susceptibility to fire. Changes in the seasonality of precipitation alter the likelihood of lightning, a key ignition source for fires. The objectives of this study were to characterize the relationship between recent, historic, and future precipitation patterns and fire. Classifying monthly precipitation data from 1971 to 2010 reveals four precipitation regimes: low winter/low summer, moderate winter/moderate summer, high winter/low summer and high winter/high summer. Two regimes with summer monsoonal precipitation covered only 40% of the Mojave Desert ecoregion but contain 88% of the area burned and 95% of the repeat burn area. Classifying historic precipitation for early-century (wet) and mid-century (drought) periods reveals distinct shifts in regime boundaries. Early-century results are similar to current, while the mid-century results show a sizeable reduction in area of regimes with a strong monsoonal component. Such a shift would suggest that fires during the mid-century period would be minimal and anecdotal records confirm this. Predicted precipitation patterns from downscaled global climate models indicate numerous epochs of high winter precipitation, inferring higher fire potential for many multi-decade periods during the next century.

Precipitation shifts over western North America as a result of declining Arctic sea ice cover: The coupled system response

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | July 21st, 2009

Changes in Arctic sea ice cover have the potential to impact midlatitude climate. A previous sensitivity study utilizing the National Center for Atmospheric Resea

Changes in Arctic sea ice cover have the potential to impact midlatitude climate. A previous sensitivity study utilizing the National Center for Atmospheric Research’s (NCAR) atmospheric general circulation model [AGCM; Community Climate Model, version 3 (CCM3)] to explore climate sensitivity to declining Arctic sea ice cover suggested that, as Arctic sea ice cover is reduced, precipitation patterns over western North America will shift toward dryer conditions in southwestern North America and wetter conditions in northwestern North America. Here, three complementary lines of research validate and explore the robustness of this possible climate change impact: 1) repetition of the previous sensitivity study (specified constant Arctic sea ice cover and atmospheric CO2) with an updated version of the NCAR AGCM [third Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3)], 2) investigation of the climate response to dynamically reduced Arctic sea ice cover (driven by a quadrupling of atmospheric CO2) in the coupled NCAR Community Climate System Model.