Projected 21st Century Coastal Flooding in the Southern California Bight. Part 2: Tools for Assessing Climate Change-Driven Coastal Hazards and Socio-Economic Impacts

Journal of Marine Science and Engineering (MDPI) | July 2nd, 2018

This paper is the second of two that describes the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) approach for quantifying physical hazards and socio-economic hazard exposure in

This paper is the second of two that describes the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) approach for quantifying physical hazards and socio-economic hazard exposure in coastal zones affected by sea-level rise and changing coastal storms. The modelling approach, presented in Part 1, downscales atmospheric global-scale projections to local scale coastal flood impacts by deterministically computing the combined hazards of sea-level rise, waves, storm surges, astronomic tides, fluvial discharges, and changes in shoreline positions. The method is demonstrated through an application to Southern California, United States, where the shoreline is a mix of bluffs, beaches, highly managed coastal communities, and infrastructure of high economic value. Results show that inclusion of 100-year projected coastal storms will increase flooding by 9–350% (an additional average 53.0 16.0 km2) in addition to a 25–500 cm sea-level rise. The greater flooding extents translate to a 55–110% increase in residential impact and a 40–90% increase in building replacement costs. To communicate hazards and ranges in socio-economic exposures to these hazards, a set of tools were collaboratively designed and tested with stakeholders and policy-makers; these tools consist of two web-based mapping and analytic applications as well as virtual reality visualizations. To reach a larger audience and enhance usability of the data, outreach and engagement included workshop-style trainings for targeted end-users and innovative applications of the virtual reality visualizations.

Projected Brackish Water Desalination Projects in California

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | February 20th, 2024

California’s Water Supply Strategy: Adapting to a Hotter, Drier Future (Water Supply Strategy), adopted by the Newsom Administration in 2022, identifies multiple action

California’s Water Supply Strategy: Adapting to a Hotter, Drier Future (Water Supply Strategy), adopted by the Newsom Administration in 2022, identifies multiple actions necessary to bolster water supply reliability in the face of climate change. The first set of actions drive the development of new water supplies and set explicit goals for expanding the production of both recycled and desalinated water. Action 1.2 includes specific targets for expanded brackish water desalination: 28,000 acre-feet by 2030, and 84,000 acre-feet by 2040. The Water Supply Strategy identifies five steps toward achieving this goal.

Projecting groundwater storage changes in California’s Central Valley

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | August 27th, 2018

Accurate and detailed knowledge of California’s groundwater is of paramount importance for statewide water resources planning and management, and to sustain a

Accurate and detailed knowledge of California’s groundwater is of paramount importance for statewide water resources planning and management, and to sustain a multi-billion-dollar agriculture industry during prolonged droughts. In this study, we use water supply and demand information from California’s Department of Water Resources to develop an aggregate groundwater storage model for California’s Central Valley. The model is evaluated against 34 years of historic estimates of changes in groundwater storage derived from the United States Geological Survey’s Central Valley Hydrologic Model (USGS CVHM) and NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (NASA GRACE) satellites. The calibrated model is then applied to predict future changes in groundwater storage for the years 2015–2050 under various precipitation scenarios from downscaled climate projections. We also discuss and project potential management strategies across different annual supply and demand variables and how they affect changes in groundwater storage. All simulations support the need for collective statewide management intervention to prevent continued depletion of groundwater availability.

Pure Water Southern California

Metropolitan Water District of Southern California (MWD) | March 29th, 2024

Putting Adaptive Management into Practice: Incorporating Quantitative Metrics into Sustainable Groundwater Management

Stanford University | March 4th, 2019

Groundwater is a critical resource in California, serving as a reserve during droughts that are expected to be increasingly frequent and severe as climate change progres

Groundwater is a critical resource in California, serving as a reserve during droughts that are expected to be increasingly frequent and severe as climate change progresses. Adaptive management – revising management practices based on monitoring of progress toward pre-established quantitative metrics of performance – is widely viewed as an effective approach to managing water and other natural resources under conditions of uncertainty. However, linking performance metrics effectively with decision-making processes is often challenging, requiring careful consideration of institutional factors that may limit an agency’s ability to act based on new information. Governance arrangements that enable adaptive management must balance the need for flexibility as conditions change with a preference among water users for stable rules. The Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) of 2014 – California’s first statewide framework for managing groundwater – incorporates many elements of adaptive management, including requirements to manage groundwater according to quantitative metrics of performance. Under regulations guiding the development of Groundwater Sustainability Plans (GSPs), newly formed Groundwater Sustainability Agencies (GSAs) must define measurable objectives, minimum thresholds and interim milestones to eliminate six “undesirable results” by 2040 or 2042, depending upon the basin. Yet, the creation of these metrics alone will be insufficient to achieve sustainable management of California’s groundwater; institutional arrangements must support their use to guide management actions. To provide insight into the design and use of metrics as guides to decision-making, this report draws upon the experiences of four special act districts that had authority to manage groundwater prior to SGMA. These include two primarily urban water agencies, Santa Clara Valley Water District (SCVWD) and Zone 7 Water Agency (Zone 7) and two agencies with significant pumping for agricultural use, Fox Canyon Groundwater Management Agency (FCGMA) and Pajaro Valley Water Management Agency (PVWMA). This report analyzes how these agencies used quantitative metrics in their groundwater management plans prior to SGMA and identifies institutional factors that constrained or enabled the adjustment of management actions in response to changing conditions during the 2012-2016 drought. Although the metrics employed by these agencies differ from those required under GSP regulations, these agencies’ experiences still offer important insights for GSAs seeking to develop metrics and integrate them into decision making.

Rapid emergence of climate change in environmental drivers of marine ecosystems

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | March 7th, 2017

Climate change is expected to modify ecological responses in the ocean, with the potential for important effects on the ecosystem services provided to humankind

Climate change is expected to modify ecological responses in the ocean, with the potential for important effects on the ecosystem services provided to humankind. Here we address the question of how rapidly multiple drivers of marine ecosystem change develop in the future ocean. By analysing an ensemble of models we find that, within the next 15 years, the climate change-driven trends in multiple ecosystem drivers emerge from the background of natural variability in 55% of the ocean and propagate rapidly to encompass 86% of the ocean by 2050 under a ‘business-as-usual’ scenario. However, we also demonstrate that the exposure of marine ecosystems to climate change-induced stress can be drastically reduced via climate mitigation measures; with mitigation, the proportion of ocean susceptible to multiple drivers within the next 15 years is reduced to 34%. Mitigation slows the pace at which multiple drivers emerge, allowing an additional 20 years for adaptation in marine ecological and socio-economic systems alike.

Recent California Water Transfers: Implications for Water Management

Natural Resources Journal (University of New Mexico) | January 3rd, 1995

The 1991 and 1992 California Drought Emergency Water Banks were the first large water transfer programs in the nation in which the state served as the predominant broke

The 1991 and 1992 California Drought Emergency Water Banks were the first large water transfer programs in the nation in which the state served as the predominant broker for water trades. Although the state-sponsored Water Banks have drawn widespread attention, there have been a great number of water transfers and exchanges taking place in California independently of the state. These transfers illustrate well the widespread applicability of transfers in managing water resource systems, as well as the multiple mechanisms available for effecting water transfers. This article focuses on California's recent experiences with water transfers, and offers a series of potential lessons for federal, state, and local managers for integrating water transfers in regional water resource systems.

Recharge Area Identification, Utilization, and Protection Resource Management Strategy

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | April 29th, 2024

This resource management strategy (RMS) advances water supply augmentation, resilience, and equity in California by providing summaries of the state of knowledge, applica

This resource management strategy (RMS) advances water supply augmentation, resilience, and equity in California by providing summaries of the state of knowledge, applications, and available information and resources on recharge area identification, utilization, and protection.

Recharge Area Protection (Resource Management Strategy)

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | July 29th, 2016

Recharge areas are those areas that provide the primary means of replenishing groundwater. Good natural recharge areas are those where good quality surface water is able

Recharge areas are those areas that provide the primary means of replenishing groundwater. Good natural recharge areas are those where good quality surface water is able to percolate through the sediments and rocks to the saturated zone which contains groundwater. If recharge areas cease to function properly, it will limit groundwater replenishment and/or groundwater quality for storage or use. Protection of recharge areas requires a number of actions based on two primary goals: (1) ensuring that areas suitable for recharge continue to be capable of adequate recharge rather than being covered by urban infrastructure, such as buildings and roads, and (2) preventing pollutants from entering groundwater to avoid expensive treatment that may be necessary prior to beneficial use. Protection of recharge areas is necessary to maintain the quantity and quality of groundwater in the aquifer. However, protecting recharge areas by itself does not provide a supply of water. Recharge areas are functioning properly when aquifer storage capacity is available, sufficient permeable surface is present, and the adequate supply of good quality water to recharge the aquifer is available. Protecting existing and potential recharge areas allows them to serve as valuable components of a conjunctive management and groundwater strategy.

Recommendations for Sustainable Groundwater Management

California Water Foundation | April 5th, 2014

The results of this effort are organized and presented as follows in this Report: • A review of the Dialogue process that provides additional details about participati

The results of this effort are organized and presented as follows in this Report: • A review of the Dialogue process that provides additional details about participating stakeholders and their perspectives; • A description of the background and challenges for California’s groundwater management and current efforts to achieve measurable progress toward sustainable management; • A set of key Findings; and • A package of seven policy Recommendations intended to lead to a new state policy for meaningful, measurable improvement in groundwater management within realistic timeframes. The Recommendations in this report reflect the best judgments of CWF about what is needed to achieve sustainable groundwater management while keeping decision making primarily at local and regional levels. CWF remains committed to a constructive public discussion about this critical issue and, ultimately, to meaningful legislative and policy actions.