Preparing for New Risks: Addressing Climate Change in California’s Urban Water Management Plans

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | June 20th, 2013

Urban Water Management Plans (UWMPs) are a central component of California’s efforts to assure reliable water supplies, particularly during drought conditions that are

Urban Water Management Plans (UWMPs) are a central component of California’s efforts to assure reliable water supplies, particularly during drought conditions that are frequently experienced in the state. Prepared by water suppliers every five years, UWMPs include supply and demand projections for the next 20 years, and describe strategies to assure adequate supplies during average, single-­year, and multi-­year drought conditions. UWMPs also contain plans to implement a 20% reduction in per capita urban water use by the year 2020, as required under the Water Conservation Act of 2009 (SBX7-­7). Climate change is introducing new risks in water planning, such as increasing temperatures, reduced snowpack, changing precipitation patterns, and accelerating sea level rise, which are already being observed in the state. It is increasingly important for water suppliers to consider how these trends are impacting water supply, demand, and drought patterns. Water suppliers can also make important contributions to reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs), through energy savings from water conservation as well as other measures. In its guidance to water suppliers for preparing 2010 UWMPs, the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) included an optional section focused on consideration of climate change impacts and GHG emissions. This study assesses how water suppliers have incorporated these factors into their 2010 plans. Drawing upon a sample of 2010 UWMPs, it examines the nature and extent of climate change discussion and analysis, and assesses how climate change risks have been incorporated into water supply and demand projections. The report also provides recommendations for how DWR could improve its guidance for 2015 UWMPs to support water suppliers in addressing climate change. All public and investor-­owned utilities serving 3,000 customers or supplying at least 3,000 acre-­feet of water annually are required to submit an Urban Water Management Plan to DWR every five years. Of the approximately 400 agencies submitting UWMPs, most are relatively small, with 90% serving less than 300,000 people, and 40% serving less than 50,000.  Most are public entities, but some are private companies, including three investor-­owned utilities with multiple service areas across the state. Large and small water suppliers tend to differ in their access to resources for planning and analysis of issues such as climate change. For many small suppliers, UWMP preparation serves as their primary long-­term planning process. Suppliers also vary in the nature of their vulnerability to drought and the impacts of climate change. Larger suppliers usually have multiple sources of supply, while small suppliers are more likely to rely on a single source, especially groundwater. These small utilities are less likely to have relationships with other suppliers, thereby reducing their options for coping with severe droughts. This study is based on an analysis of 49 individually submitted UWMPs, seven regional UWMPs, and UWMPs from three investor-­owned utilities with multiple service areas across the state. The sample was stratified so that it represents water suppliers of all sizes. It includes all large suppliers (serving 300,000 or more customers), and 10% of medium-­sized and small suppliers (serving 50,000 – 300,000 and less than 50,000 customers, respectively). Each UWMP was analyzed for its content related to climate change, and classified according to the degree and focus of discussion. This report is also informed by informal consultations with representatives of water supply agencies of different sizes.

Principles and Requirements for Federal Investments in Water Resources

Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) | March 22nd, 2013

Chapter I – Principles for Federal Investments in Water Resources 1. Purpose and Scope 2. The Federal Objective 3. Guiding Principles A. Healthy and Resilient Ecosy

Chapter I – Principles for Federal Investments in Water Resources 1. Purpose and Scope 2. The Federal Objective 3. Guiding Principles A. Healthy and Resilient Ecosystems B. Sustainable Economic Development C. Floodplains D. Public Safety E. Environmental Justice F. Watershed Approach Chapter II – Requirements 1. General Requirements A. Evaluation Framework B. Best Available Science and Commensurate Level of Detail C. Collaboration D. Risk & Uncertainty i. Climate Change ii. Future Land Use iii. Adaptive Management E. Water Use F. Nonstructural Approaches G. International Concerns H. Design of Alternatives I. Transparency in Decision Making J. Plan Selection 2. Interagency Guidelines 3. Effective Date 4. Approval

Priorities for California Water (2017)

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | October 13th, 2017

This past year was a prime example of California’s highly variable climate—and a precursor of the types of extremes that are expected to become more common. After fiv

This past year was a prime example of California’s highly variable climate—and a precursor of the types of extremes that are expected to become more common. After five years of drought exacerbated by record heat, 2017’s record rain and snow brought more challenges—stressing dams and levees, causing landslides, and adding fuel to fire-prone landscapes. Across California, leaders have responded with a number of policy and management reforms, including some that will help the state adapt to droughts and floods of the future. But there’s more work to be done. In this policy brief we outline issues that are front and center for managing California’s water supply and natural environment. We also suggest priorities for actions that would improve California’s water systems and better support the state’s residents, businesses, and ecosystems.

Priorities for California's Water: Responding to the Changing Climate

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | November 18th, 2021

Water is central to how California adapts to a changing climate. To those of us steeped in the complexities of managing the state’s water resources, the current fast-mo

Water is central to how California adapts to a changing climate. To those of us steeped in the complexities of managing the state’s water resources, the current fast-moving drought—coming on the heels of the record-breaking 2012–16 drought—is a stark reminder that we must accelerate preparation for the disruptive changes underway. Californians have taken steps to address major threats to our water resources. But a recent IPCC report underscored that the climate is changing faster than anticipated, and that many of these changes are already locked in. Rising temperatures are making our winters shorter and our droughts more intense, outpacing our ability to manage water supplies and the natural environment. We need to act with urgency to adapt to these changes. And we need to rethink how we store water. This brief examines how the current drought and a changing climate are affecting California’s ability to manage water and lays out priority actions to address major challenges—including some urgent short-term actions should the drought continue into next year.

Priorities for California’s Water

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | November 14th, 2022

This report considers the state of water in California: What changes are we seeing now, and what should we expect in the near future? Then it examines how these climate s

This report considers the state of water in California: What changes are we seeing now, and what should we expect in the near future? Then it examines how these climate shifts will impact urban and rural communities, agriculture, and the environment. Finally, it explores wet-year strategies that will help Californians get through the dry years.

Priorities for California’s Water -- Stewarding the Wet Years

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | November 2nd, 2023

The 2023 water year provided a case study of California’s increasingly volatile climate, with large swings between wet and dry conditions both within and between years.

The 2023 water year provided a case study of California’s increasingly volatile climate, with large swings between wet and dry conditions both within and between years. It highlighted our need to better navigate multiple imperatives: storing more water during intense wet periods to build water supply reliability, protecting communities and infrastructure against the threat of increasingly damaging floods, and taking better advantage of wet years to improve the health of freshwater ecosystems and native fish and wildlife.

Probabilistic Subsidence Forecast Model for the California Aqueduct Subsidence Program, San Joaquin Valley, California: Revision 1 Design Report

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | October 4th, 2024

This report documents the development of a probabilistic subsidence forecast model for simulating a plausible range of future land-surface altitude conditions along the C

This report documents the development of a probabilistic subsidence forecast model for simulating a plausible range of future land-surface altitude conditions along the California Aqueduct (Aqueduct) and San Luis Canal in the San Joaquin Valley (SJV), with an emphasis on areas of localized subsidence (i.e., “subsidence bowls”). The model forecasts will be used to inform long-term planning and on-going analyses of potential investments needed to provide a suitable level of performance for the Aqueduct. The forecast model is primarily based on an empirical relationship between historical subsidence rates and annual water deliveries from the Central Valley Project (CVP) and State Water Project (SWP). A key assumption of the model is that the rate of groundwater overdraft, which contributes to loss of aquifer storage and permanent land subsidence, is correlated with CVP and SWP deliveries, and specifically with higher groundwater storage loss during severe drought years. Another key assumption is that the same rates of subsidence will continue even after groundwater levels decline and extraction may be coming from deeper parts of the aquifer system. If the geology and/or aquifer properties change dramatically in response, then these new conditions may have an unmodeled impact on future rates. 

Procedures to evaluate sea-level change: impacts, responses, and adaptation

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) | June 30th, 2014

Progress on Incorporating Climate Change into Planning and Management of California’s Water Resources

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | July 9th, 2006

On June 1, 2005, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger issued Executive Order S-3-05 establishing greenhouse gas emissions targets for California and requiring biennial reports

On June 1, 2005, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger issued Executive Order S-3-05 establishing greenhouse gas emissions targets for California and requiring biennial reports on potential climate change effects on several areas, including water resources. The Governor established a Climate Action Team (CAT) to guide the reporting efforts. The CAT selected four climate change scenarios that reflect two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios represented by two Global Climate Models (GCMs). The CAT requested that those four climate change scenarios be used whenever possible in the climate change reporting efforts. This report is the Department of Water Resources response to the Executive Order. This report describes progress made incorporating climate change into existing water resources planning and management tools and methodologies.

Projected 21st Century Coastal Flooding in the Southern California Bight. Part 1: Development of the Third Generation CoSMoSModel

Journal of Marine Science and Engineering (MDPI) | May 24th, 2018

Due to the effects of climate change over the course of the next century, the combination of rising sea levels, severe storms, and coastal change will threaten the susta

Due to the effects of climate change over the course of the next century, the combination of rising sea levels, severe storms, and coastal change will threaten the sustainability of coastal communities, development, and ecosystems as we know them today. To clearly identify coastal vulnerabilities and develop appropriate adaptation strategies due to projected increased levels of coastal flooding and erosion, coastal managers need local-scale hazards projections using the best available climate and coastal science. In collaboration with leading scientists world-wide, the USGS designed the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) to assess the coastal impacts of climate change for the California coast, including the combination of sea-level rise, storms, and coastal change. In this project, we directly address the needs of coastal resource managers in Southern California by integrating a vast range of global climate change projections in a thorough and comprehensive numerical modeling framework. In Part 1 of a two-part submission on CoSMoS, methods and the latest improvements are discussed, and an example of hazard projections is presented. Click here for Part 2.