Shifts in MJO behavior enhance predictability of subseasonal precipitation whiplashes

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | April 28th, 2025

Trends in tree cover change over three decades related to interannual climate variability and wildfire in California

Institute of Physics (IOP) | January 19th, 2025

The U.S. State of California has experienced frequent drought events, hotter temperatures and other disruptions to the climate system whose effects on ecosystems have bee

The U.S. State of California has experienced frequent drought events, hotter temperatures and other disruptions to the climate system whose effects on ecosystems have been widely reported in recent decades. Studies primarily confined to specific vegetation communities or species, individual drought incidents, or analysis over a relatively short intervals, has limited our understanding of the broad-scale effects on tree cover and the spatiotemporal variability of effects across broader regions. We focused analysis on multi-annual land cover and land surface change to assess patterns and trends in tree cover loss in tree-dominated Californian ecoregions from 1986 to 2019. The top three years of total tree cover loss for the state were 2018 (1901 km2), 2015 (1556 km2), and 2008 (1549 km2). Overall, annual tree cover loss had upward trends. Tree cover loss rapidly surged later in the study period and was apparently driven by climate stress and wildfires. Underlying geographic variability was apparent in both non-fire and fire-related tree cover loss that sharply increased during hotter multi-year droughts. The increasingly hotter and drier climate conditions were associated with significant increases in fire-induced mortality. Our findings indicate that a possible effect of future hotter and drier climate would lead to further tree cover loss, thereby endangering California's ecosystem goods and services. Geographic variability in tree cover trends indicates that ecoregion-specific mitigation and adaptation strategies would be useful to conserve the region's forest resources. Such strategies may benefit from consideration of historical disturbances, ecoregion's sensitivity to disturbance types, as well as potential ecoregion-specific climate-vegetation-fire feedbacks.

Two and a half decades of United States wildfire burn zone disaster data, 2000-2025

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | December 17th, 2025

Growing wildfire frequency and urban development expanding into fire-prone areas have heightened wildfire risk for wildland-urban interface (WUI) communities. When burn z

Growing wildfire frequency and urban development expanding into fire-prone areas have heightened wildfire risk for wildland-urban interface (WUI) communities. When burn zones come near or cross into communities, the heat, flames, and smoke can harm human health—directly or via psychosocial stressors—to the point of becoming a disaster. We harmonized six wildfire datasets to create the first U.S.-wide spatial dataset of wildfire burn zone disasters. Our criteria for a wildfire burn zone disaster were wildfires that burned near a community (≥96 people per km2 or met WUI criterion) and resulted in ≥1 civilian fatality, ≥1 destroyed structure, or received federal disaster declaration. We identified 6,212 U.S. wildfire burn zone disasters between 2000–2025. The annual number of these disasters ranged between 61 in 2001 and 570 in 2011 (median = 217), with an increasing trend over the study period. California had the highest number of wildfire burn zone disasters (n = 878, 14.1%). These data may inform demographic, economic, and population health research, as well as policymaking and resource allocation.

Wildfires drive multi-year water quality degradation over the western United States

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | June 23rd, 2025

Wildfires can dramatically alter water quality, resulting in severe implications for human and freshwater systems. However, regional-scale assessments of these impacts ar

Wildfires can dramatically alter water quality, resulting in severe implications for human and freshwater systems. However, regional-scale assessments of these impacts are often limited by data scarcity. Here, we unify observations from 1984–2021 in 245 burned watersheds across the western United States, comparing post-fire signals to baseline levels from 293 unburned basins. Organic carbon and phosphorus exhibit significantly elevated levels (p ≤ 0.05) in the first 1–5 years post-fire, while nitrogen and sediment show significant increases up to 8 years post-fire. During peak post-fire response years, average carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus concentrations are 3–103 times pre-fire levels, and sediment 19–286 times pre-fire concentrations. Higher responses are linked with greater forested and developed areas, which respectively explain up to 31 and 33% of inter-basin response variability. Overall, this analysis provides strong evidence of multi-year water quality degradation following wildfires in the western United States and highlights the influence of basin and wildfire features. These insights may aid water managers in preparation efforts, increasing resilience of water systems to wildfire impacts.