Delta Adapts: Creating a Climate Resilient Future

Delta Stewardship Council (Delta Council) | June 25th, 2021

The time to act is now. Climate change is already altering the physical environment of the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta and Suisun Marsh (Delta), and we will continue t

The time to act is now. Climate change is already altering the physical environment of the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta and Suisun Marsh (Delta), and we will continue to experience its effects through hotter temperatures, more severe wildfires, and prolonged droughts. Over the long term, climate change in the Delta is expected to harm human health and safety, disrupt the economy, diminish water supply availability and usability, shift ecosystem function, compromise sensitive habitats, and increase the challenges of providing basic services. Many of these impacts will disproportionately affect vulnerable communities. Although the exact extent and timing of these impacts is uncertain, this climate change vulnerability assessment phase of Delta Adapts will help the Delta Stewardship Council (Council) understand specific regional climate risks and vulnerabilities. Regional, collaborative adaptation strategies rooted in science are more critical than ever. The next phase of Delta Adapts, preparing an adaptation strategy, will identify ways to address the risks and vulnerabilities.

Delta Levee Investment Strategy: Final Report

Delta Stewardship Council (Delta Council) | August 4th, 2017

In the California Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Delta), levee failure could cause catastrophic flooding, potentially causing injury or loss of life, and possibly damaging

In the California Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Delta), levee failure could cause catastrophic flooding, potentially causing injury or loss of life, and possibly damaging property, water supply, infrastructure, and environmental resources of importance to the entire State of California (State). Though levee maintenance and improvements over the past three decades have reduced the frequency of levee failures, the State has no comprehensive method to prioritize its investments in Delta levees operations, maintenance, and improvement projects. The Delta Plan, adopted on May 16, 2013, recommends that the Delta Stewardship Council (Council), in consultation with the California Department of Water Resources (DWR), the Central Valley Flood Protection Board (CVFPB), the Delta Protection Commission (DPC), local agencies, and the California Water Commission, implement California Water Code (CWC) section 85306 by developing a Delta Levees Investment Strategy (DLIS) to identify funding priorities for State investments in Delta levees. The DLIS is an innovative approach for determining priorities for State funds for levee improvement in the Delta and Suisun Marsh. The DLIS, which considers the assets protected by levees, the threats to levees, and the multiple beneficiaries of levee investments, uses a risk analysis methodology to recommend priorities for State investments in levee operations, maintenance, and improvements. This methodology was developed in close coordination with State agency partners, local and regional flood management and emergency response planning agencies, and other interested parties. In total, the Council worked with 113 different stakeholders and conducted 10 public meetings, 60 stakeholder outreach meetings, and 60 interagency coordination meetings. The Council also discussed DLIS issues at 38 Council meetings and workshops, which provided opportunities for public comment. The DLIS team developed a Decision Support Tool (DST) to enable the Council and stakeholders to review and update the data and analysis that form the basis of the risk evaluation. The DST supports deliberations by summarizing information about baseline and future risks, aggregating and displaying risks, and then identifying portfolios of investments that have the potential to reduce risk to State interests. The data components in the DST are designed to be updated as new information is collected or identified.

Delta Levee Investment Strategy: Risk Analysis Methodology

Delta Stewardship Council (Delta Council) | July 20th, 2016

Levees in California’s Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Delta) reduce flood risk to people, property, natural resources, and infrastructure systems of statewide importance

Levees in California’s Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Delta) reduce flood risk to people, property, natural resources, and infrastructure systems of statewide importance. Levee failure (such as a levee breach) could cause devastating flooding, potentially resulting in injury or loss of life, damage to property and infrastructure, disruption of water supply, and harm to environmental resources of statewide significance. Currently, the State of California (State) does not have a long-term strategy to guide future investments of its limited funding for Delta levees. The 2009 Delta Reform Act directed the Delta Stewardship Council (Council) to lead the effort to develop and recommend priorities for State investments in Delta levees to reduce flood risks and to advance the coequal goals of water supply reliability and restoring the Delta ecosystem. Working closely with other agencies and the public, the Council is developing a Delta Levees Investment Strategy (DLIS) to establish priorities for State investments in the Delta levee system. Risk, the potential for an unwanted outcome, is a principal factor in establishing priorities for State investments in levees. Specifically, risk is the probability that an adverse event (such as a flood or earthquake) will occur multiplied by the consequences of that event: Risk = Probability x Consequences As presented in this report, the DLIS is based on a comprehensive methodology that quantifies risk by considering the threats to Delta levees and the assets protected by Delta levees. The DLIS also considers the multiple beneficiaries of Delta levee investments. Building on the results of previous Delta levee planning efforts, the DLIS collects and uses the best available existing data and information from numerous sources to evaluate risks to State interests in the Delta as defined by risk to public safety; property and infrastructure; water supply reliability; the Delta ecosystem; and the unique attributes of the Delta as an evolving place. The DLIS evaluates those risks under current and potential future conditions. In early 2015, the DLIS team prepared an Interim Progress Report summarizing the work conducted during the first 9 months of the DLIS project. The report focused primarily on the methodologies planned for implementing the DLIS project to facilitate a “mid-course” review by an independent science panel, which completed its work in July 2015. Panel members offered comments for improvement and concluded that the “overall methodology of using existing data, identifying important metrics, aggregating results, and making comparisons across islands is conceptually sound” (Mitchell et al. 2015). The DLIS project includes outreach to State and local agencies, concerned stakeholders in the Delta, knowledgeable technical resources, owners and operators of Delta infrastructure, and Delta leaders and residents. The final methodologies employed in the DLIS project are reported herein and incorporate the input from the independent science panel as well as feedback and comments resulting from the outreach efforts.

Delta Levees Investment Strategy: Sea Level Rise Methodology

Delta Stewardship Council (Delta Council) | August 21st, 2015

This memorandum describes the methodology used to account for the impact of potential future sea level rise on the Delta Levees Investment Strategy (DLIS) metrics and how

This memorandum describes the methodology used to account for the impact of potential future sea level rise on the Delta Levees Investment Strategy (DLIS) metrics and how those impacts are incorporated into the DLIS planning tool. A description of the approach used to account for the spatial variation of tide effects in the Delta and Suisun Marsh and prediction uncertainties are also included in this memorandum.

Desalination and sustainability - An appraisal and current perspective

Water Research, Elsevier | February 1st, 2016

Desalination technologies have evolved and advanced rapidly along with increasing water demands around the world since 1950s. Many reviews have focused on the techno-econ

Desalination technologies have evolved and advanced rapidly along with increasing water demands around the world since 1950s. Many reviews have focused on the techno-economic and environmental and ecological issues of the desalination technologies and emphasized the feasibility of desalination industry as an alternative to meet the water demands in many water scarce regions. Despite these efforts, many perceptions about desalination processes hinder their applications for potential water supplies. This article has two specific aims: 1) provide an overview of the desalination trends around the world and discuss the sustainability components of desalination processes in comparison with other water supply alternatives; and 2) discuss case studies for desalination, and drivers and factors that influence sustainable desalination and other alternative water sources for desalination to increase our current understanding on the sensitive and futuristic issues of water supply and resource management options for drought facing regions. Although some of the facts and recent developments discussed here show that desalination can be affordable and potentially sustainable, contributions that meaningfully address socio-economic and ecological and environmental issues of desalination processes are urgently required in this critical era of severe water stress for the present context and the future development of desalination technologies.

Design Life Level: Quantifying risk in a changing climate

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | September 23rd, 2013

In the past, the concepts of return levels and return periods have been standard and important tools for engineering design. However, these concepts are based on theassu

In the past, the concepts of return levels and return periods have been standard and important tools for engineering design. However, these concepts are based on theassumption of a stationary climate and do not apply to a changing climate, whether local orglobal. In this paper, we propose a refined concept, Design Life Level, which quantifies risk in a nonstationary climate and can serve as the basis for communication. In current practice, typical hydrologic risk management focuses on a standard (e.g., in terms of a high quantile corresponding to the specified probability of failure for a single year). Nevertheless, the basic information needed for engineering design should consist of (i) the design life period (e.g., the next 50 years, say 2015–2064); and (ii) the probability (e.g., 5% chance) of a hazardous event (typically, in the form of the hydrologic variable exceeding a high level) occurring during the design life period. Capturing both of these design characteristics, the Design Life Level is defined as an upper quantile (e.g., 5%) of the distribution of the maximum value of the hydrologic variable (e.g., water level) over the design life period. We relate this concept and variants of it to existing literature and illustrate how they, and some useful complementary plots, may be computed and used. One practically important consideration concerns quantifying the statistical uncertainty in estimating a high quantile under nonstationarity.

Development of Stage-Frequency Curves in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta for Climate Change and Sea Level Rise

California Energy Commission (CEC) | August 27th, 2018

Future changes in hydrologic patterns and sea level rise will impact water levels in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Delta), the hub of California’s water supply sys

Future changes in hydrologic patterns and sea level rise will impact water levels in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Delta), the hub of California’s water supply system and an important ecosystem and agricultural area. An important tool for flood management is stage frequency curves which indicate how often certain water levels (or stage) occur. The Delta poses inherent complexity in the determination of stage-frequency and requires a number of considerations. One needs to account for river flows coming into the Delta, as well as the effect of tides from the Delta’s connection to the ocean through San Francisco Bay. During storms, Delta water levels are also affected by storm surge from the advancing storm fronts coming from the Pacific Ocean. Under climate change, Delta water levels will also be affected by rising sea levels and expected changes in hydrology, such as shifts in timing and amount of precipitation and runoff and changes in how much of our precipitation falls as rain or snow (referred to as climate change hydrology in this paper). With these taken into consideration, this study lays out the assumption and method used to develop stage-frequency curves in the Delta for three different conditions: current hydrology conditions, current hydrology with sea level rise, and late-century climate change hydrology with sea level rise. In addition, water surface elevation profiles along the Sacramento and San Joaquin rivers for various magnitudes of flood events were compared to the top of levee elevations. Both the stage-frequency curves and the water surface elevation profiles comparisons to top of levee elevations provide valuable information to water resources planners and were applied to inform life and flood risk analysis for the Delta in the Central Valley Flood Protection Plan 2017 Update.

Dynamic flood modeling essential to assess the coastal impacts of climate change

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | March 13th, 2019

Coastal inundation due to sea level rise (SLR) is projected to displace hundreds of millions of people worldwide over the next century, creating significant eco

Coastal inundation due to sea level rise (SLR) is projected to displace hundreds of millions of people worldwide over the next century, creating significant economic, humanitarian, and national-security challenges. However, the majority of previous efforts to characterize potential coastal impacts of climate change have focused primarily on long-term SLR with a static tide level, and have not comprehensively accounted for dynamic physical drivers such as tidal non-linearity, storms, short-term climate variability, erosion response and consequent flooding responses. Here we present a dynamic modeling approach that estimates climate-driven changes in flood-hazard exposure by integrating the effects of SLR, tides, waves, storms, and coastal change (i.e. beach erosion and cliff retreat). We show that for California, USA, the world’s 5th largest economy, over $150 billion of property equating to more than 6% of the state’s GDP and 600,000 people could be impacted by dynamic flooding by 2100; a three- fold increase in exposed population than if only SLR and a static coastline are considered. The potential for underestimating societal exposure to coastal flooding is greater for smaller SLR scenarios, up to a seven-fold increase in exposed population and economic interests when considering storm conditions in addition to SLR. These results highlight the importance of including climate-change driven dynamic coastal processes and impacts in both short-term hazard mitigation and long-term adaptation planning.

Earthquakes and High Water as Levee Hazards in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta

Delta Stewardship Council (Delta Council) | September 30th, 2016

Economic consequence analysis of the ARkStorm scenario

American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) | November 1st, 2016

The business interruption (BI) impacts of ARkStorm, a severe winter storm scenario developed by the U.S. Geological Survey and partners, is estimated. BI stems from l

The business interruption (BI) impacts of ARkStorm, a severe winter storm scenario developed by the U.S. Geological Survey and partners, is estimated. BI stems from losses of building function, productivity of agricultural land, and lifeline services. A dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the California economy is developed to perform this economic consequence analysis. Economic resilience in the form of input and import substitution is inherent in the model’s equilibrium solution, and the model parameterization is adjusted to reflect other forms of resilience such as production recapture. Varying assumptions about the timing and source of funds for reconstruction results in a range of recovery paths. Five years after the storm, flood-induced building damage is the overwhelming source of gross domestic product (GDP) losses, timely and partially externally funded reconstruction mitigates impacts by approximately 50%, and the economy is not guaranteed to return to its baseline GDP trajectory. The methodology serves as a template for assessing the macroeconomic consequences of disasters and the influence of resilience in reducing BI losses.