Advances in Sub-seasonal to Seasonal Prediction Relevant to Water Management in the Western United States

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | July 21st, 2022

Water management in the semi-arid western United States (U.S.) is a challenging endeavor that evolves from year to year based on large-scale atmospheric and oceanic condi

Water management in the semi-arid western United States (U.S.) is a challenging endeavor that evolves from year to year based on large-scale atmospheric and oceanic conditions. This region has frequently experienced prolonged periods of drought with substantial socioeconomic impacts; the most recent instance involves California entering its third consecutive drought year. As context for the economic implications of drought, California’s enacted state budget for the Fiscal Year 2021-22 authorizes more than $600 million for the California Department of Water Resources for providing immediate drought support to local water agencies (CA State Budget 2021a); this amount is part of a package of more than $5 billion over four years for water resilience and drought preparedness (CA State Budget 2021b). For drought preparedness, state and local water managers would like to rely on skillful forecasts on timescales that span the spectrum between weather forecasts and climate predictions. Despite recent improvements in developing sub-seasonal (2- to 6-weeks lead) and seasonal (2- to 6-months lead) prediction systems that compete with and/or outperform existing dynamical and statistical models (e.g., Gibson et al. 2021, Switanek et al. 2020, DeFlorio et al. 2019), forecasting limitations have hindered crucial management decisions for western U.S. water managers, especially related to longer-lead planning, budgeting, resource allocation, and better preparedness for wet and dry extremes (DeFlorio et al. 2021). Improved understanding of physical phenomena and processes governing weather and climate extremes and utilization of emerging forecast methodologies are critical to developing skillful S2S forecast products relevant to water management.

Aging dams, political instability, poor human decisions and climate change: recipe for human disaster

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | January 16th, 2025

Agricultural Irrigation in This Drought: Where is the Water and Where Is It Going?

University of California Giannini Foundation of Agricultural Economics | May 14th, 2015

In the midst of its fourth year of drought, California now faces an estimated reduction in surface-water availability of 8.8 million acre-feet (maf) out of 29 maf in agri

In the midst of its fourth year of drought, California now faces an estimated reduction in surface-water availability of 8.8 million acre-feet (maf) out of 29 maf in agricultural applied water statewide. However, groundwater, the buffer water supply during drought, is replacing about 6.2 maf of surface water via additional pumping. This increased groundwater pumping is in addition to the 1.5 maf of annual average groundwater overdraft in the Central Valley. The net reduction of 2.6 maf in the total supply in 2015 may result in about 564,000 acres fallowed statewide, or about 120,000 more acres than last year's fallowing estimates.

Alternative management paradigms for the future of the Colorado and Green Rivers

U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) | January 28th, 2021

The Colorado River is among the most extensively managed river systems in the world. The river’s headwaters are within the Rocky Mountains in the United States. From t

The Colorado River is among the most extensively managed river systems in the world. The river’s headwaters are within the Rocky Mountains in the United States. From there, it flows through the arid lands of the Colorado Plateau and the Basin-and-Range to its delta in northwestern Mexico. Here, the river is the only significant water supply in an otherwise starkly arid landscape and has long been called “America’s Nile.” It provides a critical water supply for nearly four million acres of irrigated land, municipal supplies for 30 million people located within and outside the basin, and more than 4,200 MW of hydropower generation capacity. The Colorado River and some of its tributaries also provide an existing or potential water supply for at least 15 Native American tribes. The river flows through seven National Wildlife Refuges, four National Recreation Areas, and five National Parks. Today, the annual consumptive uses and losses of streamflow in the basin typically exceed the amount of water available, and the river rarely flows into the Gulf of California. The impacts of climate change are likely to decrease future runoff and intensify droughts, thereby threatening current and future uses in the basin. Clearly, new ways of thinking about and managing the river need to be sought and implemented.

Alternatives in Water Management, Publication 1408

National Academy of Sciences (NAS) | September 5th, 1966

The Committee on Water was appointed in 1964 by Frederick Seitz, President of the National Academy of Sciences. The Committee was to examine in some detail the important

The Committee on Water was appointed in 1964 by Frederick Seitz, President of the National Academy of Sciences. The Committee was to examine in some detail the important interactions between expanding knowledge concerning water resources and water use in the physical sciences, the social sciences, and engineering on the one hand, and increasingly complex decisions of public policy concerned with water resource management on the other.

Amplified impacts of multi-year La Niñas on soil moisture compared to single-year La Niñas

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | August 14th, 2025

This study examines December-January-February (DJF) soil moisture responses to multi-year (MY) and single-year (SY) La Niñas using a 2200-year CESM1 simulation, AGCM exp

This study examines December-January-February (DJF) soil moisture responses to multi-year (MY) and single-year (SY) La Niñas using a 2200-year CESM1 simulation, AGCM experiments, and observational data. Four regions where MY La Niñas amplify SY La Niñas’ impacts on soil moisture were identified: North America, Australia, the Middle East, and the Sahel. SY La Niñas typically cause soil moisture drying in the Middle East and North America and wetting in Australia and the Sahel. MY La Niñas enhance these effects in the second DJF due to the strengthening of precipitation anomalies or the accumulation of precipitation-induced soil moisture anomalies, except in the Sahel where wetting is driven in part by evapotranspiration anomalies. Soil moisture variations are linked to La Niña-induced sea surface temperature changes in the Indian Ocean (for Australia and the Middle East) and the Pacific Ocean (for North America). These amplified effects are largely supported by the observed MY La Niña events from 1948 to 2022. These findings emphasize the need to integrate MY La Niñas into regional agriculture and water resource management strategies to better anticipate and mitigate their impacts.

An Assessment of Urban Water Demand Forecasts in California

Pacific Institute | August 5th, 2020

In California, urban per capita water demand has declined dramatically over the past several decades, driven in part by greater uptake of water-efficient devices. These r

In California, urban per capita water demand has declined dramatically over the past several decades, driven in part by greater uptake of water-efficient devices. These reductions have important implications for estimating future water demand. However, failure to account for the long-term trend of declining per capita water demand has led to routine overestimation of future water demand. This can lead to unnecessary and costly investment in unneeded infrastructure and new sources of supply, higher costs, and adverse environmental impacts. This report examines the accuracy of long-range water demand forecasts for California’s 10 largest urban water suppliers. It finds that per capita water demand declined for all water suppliers between 2000 and 2015. In most cases, reductions in per capita water demand were so large that total water demand declined during this period. Additionally, all water suppliers overestimated demand, driven largely by inflated estimates of per capita water demand and, to a lesser extent, overestimates of population growth rates. The report offers recommendations on how to improve the accuracy of long-range water demand forecasts.

An Evaluation of California’s Adjudicated Groundwater Basins

University of California, Santa Cruz (UC Santa Cruz) | October 1st, 2016

Groundwater is a critical resource in California, providing on average 30 percent of the state’s total water supply and significantly more during dry years. Many commu

Groundwater is a critical resource in California, providing on average 30 percent of the state’s total water supply and significantly more during dry years. Many communities rely exclusively on groundwater, and it is an essential back-up source of water during droughts when pumping increases significantly to compensate for reduced surface supplies. Local groundwater management agencies, special act districts, and court adjudications are the primary institutional arrangements to manage groundwater in California. Increasing groundwater declines in many areas of the state and concomitant negative impacts prompted the passage of the 2014 Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA). The SGMA established new requirements for 127 high- and medium-priority groundwater basins that are either in overdraft or vulnerable to overdraft to develop sustainable management programs with increased state oversight. The SGMA defines sustainable groundwater management as: “The management and use of groundwater in a manner that can be maintained during the planning and implementation horizon without causing undesirable results.” Undesirable results include: chronic lowering of groundwater levels; significant and unreasonable reduction of groundwater storage; significant and unreasonable seawater intrusion, degraded water quality, and land subsidence; depletions of interconnected surface water that have significant and unreasonable adverse impacts on beneficial uses of the surface water. The SGMA exempts 388 basins categorized as low- and very-low priority, as well as all the adjudicated groundwater basins and 3 basins with pending groundwater adjudications. The SGMA was followed by the passage of Assembly Bill 1390 (AB 1390) and Senate Bill 226 (SB 226) in 2015 that provide some procedures for groundwater adjudications. In the adjudication of a groundwater basin, the court generally defines and determines water rights for all users and provides court-supervised basin management by a Watermaster, who is usually appointed by the court to ensure that the basin is managed in accordance with the court’s decree. Prior to adjudication, key stakeholders and users of the groundwater in a basin often negotiate a stipulation and physical solution to manage the basin, and the court can then accept it in whole or in part, or reject it and craft a different solution to manage the basin. There is limited analysis of the history and current condition of California’s adjudicated basins and the potential for future improvements to the adjudication process. This report for the State Water Resources Control Board (SWRCB) evaluates all of California’s adjudicated basins with respect to sustainable groundwater management as defined in SGMA including: accomplishments, challenges, how management can be improved, and whether there are common elements that result in the sustainable management of an adjudicated groundwater basin.

An Evolutionary Theory of Administrative Law

Southern Methodist University | May 25th, 2018

Law evolves to accommodate change—this is axiomatic in most academic legal traditions. But in the era of the administrative state, with congressional gridlock and a jud

Law evolves to accommodate change—this is axiomatic in most academic legal traditions. But in the era of the administrative state, with congressional gridlock and a judiciary hesitant to address policy questions, evolution of statutory law has become much more difficult. This leads to pent up demand for change in legal regimes. If the legislature and the courts cannot provide an outlet for this pressure, where does it go? How does the law continue to change? Although other scholars have looked to agencies as engines of legal change, we lack a theoretical framework to understand how that change happens. I argue that an evolutionary framework provides an informative framework for understanding administrative legal change. I provide three case studies that demonstrate the administrative evolution of the Endangered Species Act. In spite of tremendous advances in conservation, fundamental changes in scientists’ understanding of human impacts on the natural world, and increasingly strident clashes over private property rights and endangered species, the Act has remained largely unchanged for the last 35 years. In a functioning legislative system, the Act would have been amended to accommodate many of these changes. Instead, the case studies show a mechanism of legal change through agency action analogous to the mechanisms underlying biological evolution. Other commentators have argued the administrative state stymies evolution of the law, but this research contradicts that view. Applying an evolutionary framework to administrative actions creates a new theory of administrative evolution of the law, placing administrative analysis within the long tradition of evolutionary approaches to legal change used by commentators from Aristotle to Holmes. In contrast to traditional normative theories of administrative law, an evolutionary approach focuses on how change progresses over time. This theory of administrative evolution of the law also casts new light on a host of normative questions, from the role of judicial review to improvements in agency decision-making. Considering administrative actions within the broader context of the legal evolution promises a fruitful new approach to analyzing administrative law.

An Implementation Blueprint for Enhancing Groundwater Recharge in the San Fernando Basin

University of Southern California (USC) | December 31st, 2008

The purpose of this report is to analyze the potential of providing ground water recharge in the San Fernando Basin (SFB) using native water, including the identification

The purpose of this report is to analyze the potential of providing ground water recharge in the San Fernando Basin (SFB) using native water, including the identification of strategic plans for the recharge project.