Development and Application of a 1D Compaction Model to Understand 65 Years of Subsidence in the San Joaquin Valley

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | June 2nd, 2022

High rates of land subsidence, caused by groundwater overdraft, are resulting in millions of dollars of infrastructure damage in California's San Joaquin Valley (SJV). In

High rates of land subsidence, caused by groundwater overdraft, are resulting in millions of dollars of infrastructure damage in California's San Joaquin Valley (SJV). In recent years, the use of interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) has enabled us to substantially improve our understanding of this subsidence. However, only very occasionally have the InSAR data been integrated with a physical model of subsurface compaction. Here, we have used InSAR and other data to parameterize and calibrate a 1D compaction model. We applied our model to a study area in the SJV where we had access to the necessary information on hydraulic head to develop model inputs. Our model simulated subsidence in the three aquifer system layers over the period 1952–2017, and is the first 1D compaction model in the SJV to simulate multiple aquifer system layers from the 1950s to 2017. The results from our model suggest that previous studies have significantly underestimated the time constants governing the slow, residual compaction of subsurface clays. We suggest that residual compaction of clays is a process that continues for decades-to-centuries, indicating that to significantly reduce subsidence requires some recovery of head, not just a stabilization. We also show how compaction in the lower, confined aquifer has accounted for over 90% of subsidence in the past 20 years. Although our study area is small, our findings are likely representative of the subsiding regions of the SJV, and our methodology can be applied to unconsolidated aquifer systems exhibiting subsidence worldwide.

Domestic well vulnerability to drought duration and unsustainable groundwater management in California's Central Valley

Environmental Research Letters (IOP) | March 18th, 2020

Millions of Californians access drinking water via domestic wells, which are vulnerable to drought and unsustainable groundwater management. Groundwater overdraft and th

Millions of Californians access drinking water via domestic wells, which are vulnerable to drought and unsustainable groundwater management. Groundwater overdraft and the possibility of longer drought duration under climate change threatens domestic well reliability, yet we lack tools to assess the impact of such events. Here, we leverage 943,469 well completion reports and 20 years of groundwater elevation data to develop a spatially-explicit domestic well failure model covering California’s Central Valley. Our model successfully reproduces the spatial distribution of observed domestic well failures during the severe 2012–2016 drought (n=2027). Next, the impact of longer drought duration (5–8years) on domestic well failure is evaluated, indicating that if the 2012–2016 drought would have continued into a 6 to 8 year long drought, a total of 4037–5460 to 6538–8056 wells would fail. The same drought duration scenarios with an intervening wet winter in 2017 lead to an average of 498 and 738 fewer well failures. Additionally, we map vulnerable wells at high failure risk and find that they align with clusters of predicted well failures. Lastly, we evaluate how the timing and implementation of different projected groundwater management regimes impact groundwater levels and thus domestic well failure. When historic overdraft persists until 2040, domestic well failures range from 5966 to 10 466 (depending on the historic period considered). When sustainability is achieved progressively between 2020 and 2040, well failures range from 3677 to 6943, and from 1516 to 2513 when groundwater is not allowed to decline after 2020.

Drawdown ‘‘Triggers’’: A Misguided Strategy for Protecting Groundwater-Fed Streams and Springs

National Groundwater Association (NGWA) | October 31st, 2016

There is increasing recognition of the importanceof groundwater to the survival and function of terrestrial ecosystems (e.g., Ribeiro et al. 2013), which has grown from

There is increasing recognition of the importanceof groundwater to the survival and function of terrestrial ecosystems (e.g., Ribeiro et al. 2013), which has grown from understanding of the intimate connections between groundwater and surface water (Winter et al.1998). In this context, management strategies that can protect groundwater-dependent ecosystems (GDEs) such as springs and groundwater-fed streams are of critical importance. One strategy being adopted in some casesis the use of “drawdown triggers.” This involves specifying an amount of acceptable drawdown relative to baseline at a particular monitoring point, which if exceeded, triggers a management response. This technical commentary examines this strategy, highlighting potential pit-falls. There are important aspects of the response of groundwater and connected springs and streams which may be overlooked if drawdown triggers are adopted as the primary strategy for GDE protection. A case study of a recently approved mining project is discussed and some additional and/or alternative approaches proposed.

Drift of Earth's Pole Confirms Groundwater Depletion as a Significant Contributor to Global Sea Level Rise 1993–2010

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | June 15th, 2023

Dry groundwater wells in the western United States

Environmental Research Letters (IOP) | July 28th, 2017

Declining groundwater levels are common in parts of the western US, but their impact on the ability of wells to pump groundwater is not known. Here we collate groundwater

Declining groundwater levels are common in parts of the western US, but their impact on the ability of wells to pump groundwater is not known. Here we collate groundwater well records for the western United States and present the recorded locations, depths, and purposes of more than two million groundwater wells constructed between 1950 and 2015. We then use the well records to estimate the percentage of wells that were dry during the years 2013–2015. During the two-year period, dry wells were concentrated in rural areas with high agricultural productivity, such as parts of the California Central Valley and the High Plains. Our results support anecdotal evidence that wells used for domestic purposes are more susceptible to drying than wells used for agricultural purposes throughout California’s Central Valley because the former tend to be shallower. However, this is not the case in all regions. Our findings suggest that declining groundwater levels are threatening drinking water reliability and agricultural productivity, and consequently, have key implications for both domestic and agricultural water security. Ongoing reductions to groundwater storage are drying groundwater wells in the western US, and this manifestation of water scarcity warrants innovative groundwater management transcending status quos.

East Kaweah GSA Groundwater Sustainability Plan

East Kaweah Groundwater Sustainability Agency (EKGSA) | February 17th, 2019

Final GSP delivered to the Department of Water Resources 1/31/20 per DWR; final online draft awaiting uploading per inquiry to EKGSA 2/13/20

Final GSP delivered to the Department of Water Resources 1/31/20 per DWR; final online draft awaiting uploading per inquiry to EKGSA 2/13/20

Eastern San Joaquin Groundwater Subbasin Groundwater Sustainability Plan

Eastern San Joaquin Groundwater Authority (ESJGA) | November 1st, 2019

In 2014, the California legislature enacted the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) in response to continued overdraft of California’s groundwater resources

In 2014, the California legislature enacted the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) in response to continued overdraft of California’s groundwater resources. The Eastern San Joaquin Groundwater Subbasin (Eastern San Joaquin Subbasin, or Subbasin) is one of 21 basins and subbasins identified by the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) as being in a state of critical overdraft. SGMA requires preparation of a Groundwater Sustainability Plan (GSP) to address measures necessary to attain sustainable conditions in the Subbasin. Within the framework of SGMA, sustainability is generally defined as long-term reliability of the groundwater supply and the absence of undesirable results. The Eastern San Joaquin Groundwater Authority (ESJGWA) was formed in 2017 in response to SGMA. A Joint Exercise of Powers Agreement establishes the ESJGWA, which is composed of 16 Groundwater Sustainability Agencies (GSAs): Central Delta Water Agency (CDWA), Central San Joaquin Water Conservation District (CSJWCD), City of Lodi, City of Manteca, City of Stockton, Eastside San Joaquin GSA (Eastside GSA) (composed of Calaveras County Water District [CCWD], Stanislaus County, and Rock Creek Water District), Linden County Water District (LCWD), Lockeford Community Services District (LCSD), North San Joaquin Water Conservation District (NSJWCD), Oakdale Irrigation District (OID), San Joaquin County No. 1, San Joaquin County No. 2 (with participation from California Water Service Company Stockton District [Cal Water]), South Delta Water Agency (SDWA), South San Joaquin GSA (composed of South San Joaquin Irrigation District [SSJID] including Woodward Reservoir, City of Ripon, and City of Escalon), Stockton East Water District (SEWD), and Woodbridge Irrigation District (WID). The ESJGWA is governed by a 16-member Board of Directors (ESJGWA Board), with one representative from each GSA. The Board is guided by an Advisory Committee, also with one representative from each GSA, that is tasked with making recommendations to the ESJGWA Board on technical and substantive matters. SGMA requires development of a GSP that achieves groundwater sustainability in the Subbasin by 2040. The GSP outlines the need to reduce overdraft conditions and has identified 23 projects for potential development that either replace groundwater use (offset) or supplement groundwater supplies (recharge) to meet current and future water demands. Although current analysis indicates that groundwater pumping offsets and/or recharge on the order of 78,000 acre-feet per year (AF/year) may be required to achieve sustainability, additional efforts are needed to confirm the level of pumping offsets and/or recharge required to achieve sustainability. These efforts include collecting additional data and a review of the Subbasin groundwater model, along with other efforts as outlined in the GSP. A Public Draft GSP was prepared and made available for public review and comment on July 10, 2019 for a period of 45 days ending on August 25, 2019. The ESJGWA received numerous comments from the public, reviewed and prepared responses to comments, and revised the Draft GSP. This Final GSP includes those edits and revisions. Comment letters and responses are included as appendices to the GSP.

Eastern Tule Groundwater Sustainability Agency Tule Subbasin Groundwater Sustainability Plan

Eastern Tule Groundwater Sustainability Agency (ETGSA) | January 17th, 2020

Eastern Tule Groundwater Sustainability Agency Tule Subbasin Groundwater Sustainability Plan (Revised)

Eastern Tule Groundwater Sustainability Agency (ETGSA) | July 12th, 2022

This Plan addresses the items identified in the SGMA regulations specific to the ETGSA, including descriptions of the physical characteristics, the ETGSA water budget (h

This Plan addresses the items identified in the SGMA regulations specific to the ETGSA, including descriptions of the physical characteristics, the ETGSA water budget (historic and future), specific monitoring features and locations, quantifiable measurable objectives, interim milestones and minimum thresholds for the applicable sustainable management criteria including depth to groundwater, groundwater storage, groundwater quality, and land subsidence between 2020 and 2040, and those projects and management actions proposed to implement during the 20 year planning horizon to achieve the Sustainability Goal. These projects and management actions will be critical to the success of the Plan, which initially focus the ETGSA to implement an accounting system to track and monitor groundwater data to help inform and develop policies to adaptively manage to reduce groundwater overdraft while minimizing impacts to agriculture production and economic impacts to the local communities. Due to size, this file has been divided. Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4, Part 5, Part 6, Part 7, Part 8

Economic and water supply effects of ending groundwater overdraft in California’s Central Valley

University of California, Davis (UC Davis) | March 1st, 2016

Surface water and groundwater management are often tightly linked, even when linkage is not intended or expected. This link is especially common in semi-arid regions,

Surface water and groundwater management are often tightly linked, even when linkage is not intended or expected. This link is especially common in semi-arid regions, such as California. This paper summarizes a modeling study on the effects of ending long-term overdraft in California’s Central Valley, the state’s largest aquifer system. The study focuses on economic and operational aspects, such as surface water pumping and diversions, groundwater recharge, water scarcity, and the associated operating and water scarcity costs. This analysis uses CALVIN, a hydro-economic optimization model for California’s water resource system that suggests operational changes to minimize net system costs for a given set of conditions, such as ending long-term overdraft. Based on model results, ending overdraft might induce some major statewide operational changes, including large increases to Delta exports, more intensive conjunctive-use operations with increasing artificial and in-lieu recharge, and greater water scarcity for Central Valley agriculture. The statewide costs of ending roughly 1.2 maf yr-1  of groundwater overdraft are at least $50 million per year from additional direct water shortage and additional operating costs. At its worst, the costs of ending Central Valley overdraft could be much higher, perhaps comparable to the recent economic effects of drought. Driven by recent state legislation to improve groundwater sustainability, ending groundwater overdraft has important implications statewide for water use and management, particularly in the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta. Ending Central Valley overdraft will amplify economic pressure to increase Delta water exports rather than reduce them, tying together two of California’s largest water management problems.