West-Wide Climate Risk Assessments: Irrigation Demand and Reservoir Evaporation Projections

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) | February 5th, 2015

Section 9503 of the SECURE Water Act, Subtitle F of Title IX of P.L. 111-11 (2009) (SECURE Water Act), authorizes the Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) to evaluate the

Section 9503 of the SECURE Water Act, Subtitle F of Title IX of P.L. 111-11 (2009) (SECURE Water Act), authorizes the Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) to evaluate the risks and impacts of climate change in each of the eight major Reclamation river basins identified in the Act, and to work with stakeholders to identify climate adaptation strategies. Reclamation implements Section 9503 of the SWA through the Department of Interior’s WaterSMART Program1, which is working to achieve a sustainable water strategy to meet the Nation’s water needs now and for the future. Through Basin Studies, part of WaterSMART, Reclamation works with State and local partners to evaluate the ability to meet future water demands within a river basin and to identify adaptation and mitigation strategies of the potential impacts of climate change. Through another activity, West-Wide Climate Risk Assessments (WWCRA), Reclamation is working to provide projections of future changes in water supplies, water demands, and river system operations that could result from changes in climate. As part of WWCRA, Reclamation has conducted an analysis of the potential changes in crop irrigation demand in eight major river basins in the West and projections of evaporation for 12 reservoirs within those river basins when considering observed and projected impacts of climate change. This report contains the results of that analysis. The findings presented in this report are intended to be used for future basin-specific WWCRA impact assessments and Basin Studies conducted under WaterSMART if the teams conducting those studies elect to do so. This technical assessment report provides: (1) an analysis of changes in irrigation demand, and (2) an analysis of changes in evaporation for selected reservoirs across the major Reclamation river basins with respect to presently observed and projected future impacts of global climate change. The analysis involved developing irrigation demand and reservoir evaporation projections associated with World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project3 (WCRP CMIP3) climate projections that have been bias-corrected and spatially downscaled (BCSD) and served at the following Web site: http://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled_cmip_projections/dcpInterface.html. For the purposes of this study, CMIP3 climate projections were used because they represented the best available collection of climate projections at the onset of this effort (summer 2011 which was begun prior to the release of CMIP5). Although the CMIP3 and CMIP5 projections are considered equally likely potential climate futures at this time, there is significant variability in the two sets of projections. This is especially true with regard to precipitation projections, and it is significant to note the potential impact of this variability on future irrigation demand and net evaporation estimates. Changes to irrigation demand (model, described below) were analyzed for five climate change scenarios (warm-dry, warm-wet, hot-dry, hot-wet, and central tendency – ensemble median) that were informed by 112 BCSD-CMIP3 projections at three future periods: 2020s (years 2010-2039), 2050s (years 2040–2069), and 2080s (2070-2099) with 1950–1999 as the baseline period. The reservoir evaporation modeling (described below) was performed as transient simulations using the individual 112 BCSD-CMIP3 projections. Both the irrigation demands modeling and the reservoir evaporation modeling used observed data from weather stations representative of irrigated land areas and reservoir sites in a secondary bias correction step to account for local scale climate conditions in the climate change scenarios. Although it would be ideal to calculate future irrigation demands for all 112 projections using the transient method as was done for the future reservoir evaporation estimates, such calculations were not feasible given the multiple crops and numerous locations modeled.

Western and Traditional Ecological Knowledge in ecocultural restoration

University of California, Davis (UC Davis) | October 1st, 2018

 The Delta Plan (DSC 2013) calls for “protecting and enhancing the unique cultural values” of California’s Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta, a 2,800-km2 (1,100 mi2)

 The Delta Plan (DSC 2013) calls for “protecting and enhancing the unique cultural values” of California’s Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta, a 2,800-km2 (1,100 mi2) region that was occupied by indigenous peoples for ~5,000 years. The legacies of Native Californians need to be included in the Delta Plan, especially Traditional Ecological Knowledge (TEK) of ways to gather, hunt, and fish for food; build shelters; prepare medicines; and perform ceremonies — along with ways to make tools, clothing, baskets, and shelters. Plants were not just collected but also tended, which involved planned burning, digging, planting, weeding, harvesting, and seed dispersal. Populations of plants that have cultural significance and unique values should be enhanced under the Delta Plan. While Western Ecological Knowledge (WEK) offers a strong foundation for restoration of species assemblages and ecosystems, TEK adds culturally-significant species to restoration targets and traditional management practices to achieve ecological resilience. We compare 11 attributes of WEK and TEK that aid ecological restoration; all are complementary or shared by these two ways of knowing. Both WEK and TEK emphasize adaptive approaches for managing natural resources, as mandated in the Delta Plan. We suggest that WEK–TEK restoration sites throughout the Delta can be linked (virtually) to honor cultural integrity and nurture a “Sense of Place” for Native Californians and others. At the same time, such a network could foster ways to achieve sustainability through the TEK ethic of reciprocity, which WEK lacks. A network of WEK–TEK sites could enhance unique cultural values while supporting passive recreation and attracting ecotourists. 

Western Delta Intakes Concept

Bob Pyke | May 8th, 2013

A Self-Regulating, Inclusive and Sustainable Solution for the Sacramento San Joaquin Delta This white paper outlines a comprehensive solution to the current problems o

A Self-Regulating, Inclusive and Sustainable Solution for the Sacramento San Joaquin Delta This white paper outlines a comprehensive solution to the current problems of the Sacramento - San Joaquin Delta called the Western Delta Intakes Concept (WDIC). The white paper introduced the concept that in normal to dry years, water would be extracted from the Delta only through a new forebay constructed on the eastern two-thirds of Sherman Island into which water would be drawn during periods of extraction through “permeable embankments that would replace the existing levees along the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers; the approach velocities to these permeable embankments would be 100 times slower than the maximum approach velocities used in the current design of fish screens”. While the intent to make extraction of water as invisible as possible to migrating fish, including both salmonids and Delta smelt, was clear, this language failed to explain two other important considerations, one involving the fact that the existing levees would be left in place, both to provide added protection to the new embankments and to create new riparian habitat, and the other involving the small proportion of total flow at Sherman Island that would be extracted.

Westside Sacramento Integrated Regional Water Management Plan Update

Westside Sacramento Regional Water Management Group | January 3rd, 2019

This Integrated Regional Water Management Plan (IRWM Plan) defines a clear vision for the management of water resources in the Westside Sacramento Region (Region) and

This Integrated Regional Water Management Plan (IRWM Plan) defines a clear vision for the management of water resources in the Westside Sacramento Region (Region) and highlights important actions needed to help accomplish that vision through the year 2040. This IRWM Plan Update complies with the 2016 Integrated Regional Water Management Grant Program Guidelines applicable to Proposition 1 IRWM grant funding published by the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) in July 2016. This IRWM Plan defines a clear vision for the management of water resources in the Region and highlights important actions needed to help accomplish that vision through the year 2040. The 2018 IRWM Plan complies with the Integrated Regional Water Management Guidelines for Proposition 1 published by DWR in November 2016.

Westside Subbasin Groundwater Sustainability Plan

Westlands Water District | January 23rd, 2020

Westside Subbasin Groundwater Sustainability Plan (Clarified and Amended GSP)

Westlands Water District | July 18th, 2022

Due to size, this file has been divided into 11 parts. Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4, Part 5, Part 6, Part 7, Part 8, Part 9, Part 10, Part 11

Due to size, this file has been divided into 11 parts. Part 1, Part 2, Part 3, Part 4, Part 5, Part 6, Part 7, Part 8, Part 9, Part 10, Part 11

Wet Antecedent Soil Moisture Increases Atmospheric River Streamflow Magnitudes Nonlinearly

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | June 4th, 2025

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) drive most riverine floods on the U.S. West Coast. However, estimating flood risk based solely on AR intensity and duration is challenging becaus

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) drive most riverine floods on the U.S. West Coast. However, estimating flood risk based solely on AR intensity and duration is challenging because precipitation phase, antecedent conditions, and physical watershed characteristics (e.g., slope and soil depth) can influence the magnitude of floods. Here, we analyze how antecedent soil moisture (ASM) conditions contribute to variability in streamflow during AR events and how that changes across climatic regimes and physiography in 122 U.S. West Coast watersheds. We identify a robust nonlinear relationship between streamflow and ASM during ARs in 89% of watersheds. The inflection point in this relationship represents a watershed-specific critical ASM threshold, above which event maximum streamflow is, on average, 2–4.5 times larger. Wet ASM conditions amplify the hydrologic impacts of more frequent but weaker, lower moisture transport AR events, while dry ASM conditions attenuate the hydrologic impacts that stronger, higher moisture transport AR events could otherwise cause. Our research shows that watersheds prone to ASM-amplified streamflows have higher evaporation ratios, lower cold-season precipitation, lower snow-to-rain ratios, and shallower, clay-rich soils. Higher evaporation and lower precipitation lead to greater ASM variability during the cold season, increasing streamflow during wet periods and buffering streamflow during dry periods. Lower snow fraction and shallower soils limit the antecedent water storage capacity of a watershed, contributing to greater sensitivity of streamflow peaks to ASM variability. Incorporating ASM thresholds into hydrologic models in these regions prone to AR-amplified streamflow could improve forecasts and decrease uncertainty.

Wetland geomorphology and tidal hydrodynamics drive fine‑scale fish community composition and abundance

Environmental Biology of Fishes (Springer) | January 19th, 2024

Wetland Management Strategy to Reduce Mercury in Water and Bioaccumulation in Fish

Society of Environmental Toxicology and Chemistry (SETAC) | July 25th, 2019

Wetland environments provide numerous ecosystem services but also facilitate methylmercury (MeHg) production and bioaccumulation. We developed a wetland‐management tech

Wetland environments provide numerous ecosystem services but also facilitate methylmercury (MeHg) production and bioaccumulation. We developed a wetland‐management technique to reduce MeHg concentrations in wetland fish and water. We physically modified seasonal wetlands by constructing open‐ and deep‐water treatment cells at the downstream end of seasonal wetlands to promote naturally occurring MeHg‐removal processes. We assessed the effectiveness of reducing mercury (Hg) concentrations in surface water and western mosquitofish that were caged at specific locations within 4 control and 4 treatment wetlands. Methylmercury concentrations in wetland water were successfully decreased within treatment cells during only the third year of study; however, treatment cells were not effective for reducing total Hg concentrations. Furthermore, treatment cells were not effective for reducing total Hg concentrations in wetland fish. Mercury concentrations in fish were not correlated with total Hg concentrations in filtered, particulate, or whole water; and the slope of the correlation with water MeHg concentrations differed between months. Fish total Hg concentrations were weakly correlated with water MeHg concentrations in April when fish were introduced into cages but were not correlated in May when fish were retrieved from cages. Fish total Hg concentrations were greater in treatment wetlands than in control wetlands the year after the treatment wetlands’ construction but declined by the second year. During the third year, fish total Hg concentrations increased in both control and treatment wetlands after an unexpected regional flooding event. Overall, we found limited support for the use of open‐ and deep‐water treatment cells at the downstream end of wetlands to reduce MeHg concentrations in water but not fish. We suggest that additional evaluation over a longer period of time is necessary.

What Can We Learn From How the State Responded to the Last Major Drought?

Legislative Analyst's Office (LAO) | May 13th, 2021

For the second consecutive year, the state is experiencing extremely low rates of precipitation. As we prepare for what could be an extended period of dry conditions, it

For the second consecutive year, the state is experiencing extremely low rates of precipitation. As we prepare for what could be an extended period of dry conditions, it is helpful to review how the state responded to the last major drought. Such information can inform—and thereby potentially improve—the state’s current and ongoing response to developing conditions. In this report, we summarize the major activities, spending, and policy actions undertaken by the state to respond to the severe drought that occurred from 2012 through 2016. We also describe current conditions, and highlight some key lessons the Legislature can learn from previous efforts to help guide its response to the emerging drought.