Meteorological driving forces of reference evapotranspiration and their trends in California

Science of the Total Environment (Elsevier) | August 13th, 2022

Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is a variable that helps determine atmospheric pressure on living (reference) grass to release water into the atmosphere. For this purp

Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is a variable that helps determine atmospheric pressure on living (reference) grass to release water into the atmosphere. For this purpose, four main driving forces: air temperature, air humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed need to be measured over the well-watered reference grass. The relative influence of these driving forces is region and climate-specific, with daily and seasonal variations. A clear understanding of the dynamic interactions of ETo's driving factors can illuminate the water and energy cycles of the earth and assist modelers with more accurate predictions of ETo. In this study, Pearson correlation, mutual information, and random forest feature importance analyses have been used to evaluate the relative importance of meteorological driving forces of ETo in California. To better understand the interrelations of these variables, 1,365,823 daily data samples from 237 standardized weather stations for 36 years have been clustered into homogeneous climatic zones and analyzed. To compensate for the effects of seasonality, feature importance analysis is also conducted on seasonal and monthly clustered data. Moreover, seasonal and annual trends of ETo and its driving factors are investigated for California and homogeneous zones using the Mann-Kendall test. Our findings reveal that for annually clustered data, solar radiation is the most influential driving factor of ETo in California. However, analysis of seasonal and monthly clustered data shows that vapor pressure deficit is the most informative factor during the summer and spring, while solar radiation is more important during the colder seasons. Results of trend analysis don't suggest a consistent monotonic trend for ETo and other variables for different seasons and zones. However, it is shown that agricultural regions with heavy irrigation dependence like the Central Valley are getting warmer and drier, especially during the irrigation season. This can adversely affect the water resources, agriculture industry, and food production of California, and modeling efforts like this can be very informative for future water resources management.

Methane emissions from groundwater pumping in the USA

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | March 25th, 2019

Atmospheric methane accumulation contributes to climate change, hence quantifying methane emissions is essential to assess and model the impacts. Here, we estimate metha

Atmospheric methane accumulation contributes to climate change, hence quantifying methane emissions is essential to assess and model the impacts. Here, we estimate methane emissions from groundwater pumping in the Los Angeles Basin (LAB), north-eastern Pennsylvania, and the Principal aquifers of the USA using the average concentrations of methane in groundwater and annual groundwater pumping volumes. High average methane concentrations, 44.1 mg/L, and extensive groundwater pumping, ~3.1 Å~1011 L/a in the LAB, result in the annual emission of ~2.9 Å~ 10−3 Tg of microbial methane. Ethane emissions in the LAB were 3.5 Å~10−6 Tg/a. Lower methane emissions estimated for NE Pennsylvania, ~3.0 Å~ 10−8 Tg/a, reflect lower methane concentrations and groundwater pumping, 0.7 mg/L and 4.67 Å~ 107 L/a, respectively. Methane concentrations and groundwater withdrawals, 1.06 Å~1014 L/a, across the USA enabled the estimation of the total emissions of methane from Principal aquifers (92% of total pumping) of 0.044 Tg/a in the year 2000, which represents a small percentage (~0.2%) of the total annual US methane emissions, but a previously unquantified flux in the global methane budget. Globally, groundwater-pumping methane emissions were estimated to be 0.53 Tg/a, 0.2% of global methane emissions, by adopting a global estimate for groundwater extraction, and an average methane concentration in older groundwater of 0.44 mg/L.

Methods Used to Update Ecosystem Restoration Maps Using New Digital Elevation Model and Tidal Data

Delta Stewardship Council (Delta Council) | June 29th, 2022

Modeling residential development in California from 2000 to 2050: Integrating wildfire risk, wildland and agricultural encroachment

Land Use Policy (Elsevier) | November 1st, 2014

Between 1940 and 2000, nearly 10 million housing units were constructed throughout California. This increased interaction between human and natural communities creates a

Between 1940 and 2000, nearly 10 million housing units were constructed throughout California. This increased interaction between human and natural communities creates a number of significant socio-ecological challenges. Here we present a novel spatially explicit model that allows better characterization of the extent and intensity of future housing settlements using three development scenarios between 2000 and 2050. We estimate that California’s exurban land classes will replace nearly 12 million acres of wild and agricultural lands. This will increase threats to ecosystems and those presented by wild fire, as the number of houses in ‘very high’ wildfire severity zones increases by nearly 1 million.

Modeling the impact of future rainfall changes on the effectiveness of urban stormwater control measures

Springer Nature | February 19th, 2024

The convergence of urban expansion, deteriorating infrastructure, and a changing climate will escalate the risks of stormwater pollution and urban flooding in the coming

The convergence of urban expansion, deteriorating infrastructure, and a changing climate will escalate the risks of stormwater pollution and urban flooding in the coming decades. Using outputs from an ensemble of global climate models to drive a high spatial resolution stormwater model, we analyzed climate change impacts on urban stormwater runoff and control measures for 23 cities across the United States. Runoff model outputs for two future emissions scenarios ending in 2055 were compared against a historical scenario to assess changes. All cities showed increases in average annual stormwater runoff, with changes up to 30% over the next 30 years due to a greater frequency of high intensity storm events. Runoff model outputs showed substantial variation across cities with untreated stormwater runoff increasing by as much as 48%. Patterns of future runoff impacts within cities will affect the performance of distributed treatment strategies such as Green Stormwater Infrastructure (GSI) to meet municipal water quality improvement and runoff reduction goals. Results indicate that adoption of adaptable design standards and decision support tools that readily accommodate projected precipitation changes are critical for supporting more resilient designs of stormwater control measures.

Monitoring for Acidification Threats in West Coast Estuaries: A San Francisco Bay Case Study

San Francisco Estuary Institute (SFEI) | June 6th, 2017

The estuaries of the U.S. Pacific Coast are diverse and productive ecosystems of high ecological, cultural, and economic value. They have many stakeholders, are managed t

The estuaries of the U.S. Pacific Coast are diverse and productive ecosystems of high ecological, cultural, and economic value. They have many stakeholders, are managed to meet many different, often competing, objectives, and contend with environmental stressors from a variety of sources. Ocean acidification (OA) is one stressor expected to have widespread impacts on the Pacific coastal ecosystems. Recently, the West Coast Ocean Acidification & Hypoxia Science Panel recommended improved monitoring to assess biological impacts in the coastal ocean and estuaries. However, the current status and impacts of ocean acidification on West Coast estuaries are largely unknown. A workshop in October 2016 brought together scientists from throughout the West Coast of the United States, leading researchers on San Francisco Bay, the region’s largest estuary, and representatives from a variety of management agencies. The main objectives of the Workshop were to assess whether acidification is of concern in the Bay and to identify its potential impacts to beneficial uses, cost-effective monitoring strategies, and potential management actions. Although the Bay was the case study, the aim was to develop general guidance that could be applied to West Coast estuaries.

More extreme precipitation in the world's dry and wet regions

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | March 7th, 2016

Intensification of the hydrological cycle is expected to accompany a warming climate. It has been suggested that changes in the spatial distribution of precipitation will

Intensification of the hydrological cycle is expected to accompany a warming climate. It has been suggested that changes in the spatial distribution of precipitation will amplify differences between dry and wet regions, but this has been disputed for changes over land. Furthermore, precipitation changes may differ not only between regions but also between different aspects of precipitation, such as totals and extremes. Here we investigate changes in these two aspects in the world’s dry and wet regions using observations and global climate models. Despite uncertainties in total precipitation changes, extreme daily precipitation averaged over both dry and wet regimes shows robust increases in both observations and climate models over the past six decades. Climate projections for the rest of the century show continued intensification of daily precipitation extremes. Increases in total and extreme precipitation in dry regions are linearly related to the model-specific global temperature change, so that the spread in projected global warming partly explains the spread in precipitation intensification in these regions by the late twenty-first century. This intensification has implications for the risk of flooding as the climate warms, particularly for the world’s dry regions.

More frequent atmospheric rivers slow the seasonal recovery of Arctic sea ice

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | February 6th, 2023

In recent decades, Arctic sea-ice coverage underwent a drastic decline in winter, when sea ice is expected to recover following the melting season. It is unclear to what

In recent decades, Arctic sea-ice coverage underwent a drastic decline in winter, when sea ice is expected to recover following the melting season. It is unclear to what extent atmospheric processes such as atmospheric rivers (ARs), intense corridors of moisture transport, contribute to this reduced recovery of sea ice. Here, using observations and climate model simulations, we find a robust frequency increase in ARs in early winter over the Barents–Kara Seas and the central Arctic for 1979–2021. The moisture carried by more frequent ARs has intensified surface downward longwave radiation and rainfall, caused stronger melting of thin, fragile ice cover and slowed the seasonal recovery of sea ice, accounting for 34% of the sea-ice cover decline in the Barents–Kara Seas and central Arctic. A series of model ensemble experiments suggests that, in addition to a uniform AR increase in response to anthropogenic warming, tropical Pacific variability also contributes to the observed Arctic AR changes.

Mountain rock glaciers contain globally significant water stores

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | February 12th, 2018

Glacier- and snowpack-derived meltwaters are threatened by climate change. Features such as rock glaciers (RGs) are climatically more resilient than glaciers and

Glacier- and snowpack-derived meltwaters are threatened by climate change. Features such as rock glaciers (RGs) are climatically more resilient than glaciers and potentially contain hydrologically valuable ice volumes. However, while the distribution and hydrological significance of glaciers is well studied, RGs have received comparatively little attention. Here, we present the first near-global RG database (RGDB) through an analysis of current inventories and this contains >73,000 RGs. Using the RGDB, we identify key data-deficient regions as research priorities (e.g., Central Asia). We provide the first approximation of near-global RG water volume equivalent and this is 83.72 ± 16.74 Gt. Excluding the Antarctic and Subantarctic, Greenland Periphery, and regions lacking data, we estimate a near-global RG to glacier water volume equivalent ratio of 1:456. Significant RG water stores occur in arid and semi-arid regions (e.g., South Asia East, 1:57). These results represent a first-order approximation. Uncertainty in the water storage estimates includes errors within the RGDB, inherent flaws in the meta-analysis methodology, and RG thickness estimation. Here, only errors associated with the assumption of RG ice content are quantified and overall uncertainty is likely larger than that quantified. We suggest that RG water stores will become increasingly important under future climate warming.

Moving Forward Effort: Phase 1 Report

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) | May 1st, 2015

In 2012, the Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation), in partnership with the seven Colorado River Basin States (Basin States) and in collaboration with a wide spectrum of

In 2012, the Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation), in partnership with the seven Colorado River Basin States (Basin States) and in collaboration with a wide spectrum of Colorado River Basin (Basin) stakeholders, published the most comprehensive study of future Basin supply and demand ever undertaken. The Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study (Basin Study) confirmed that, in the absence of timely action, there are likely to be significant shortfalls between projected water supplies and demands in coming decades. The Basin Study also confirmed that a wide range of solutions are needed to mitigate and adapt to such shortfalls, which are likely to affect each sector (agricultural, municipal, energy, and environmental, for example) dependent on the Colorado River and its tributaries. In response to the findings of the Basin Study, in May 2013, Reclamation and the Basin States, in collaboration with the Ten Tribes Partnership and conservation organizations, initiated the Moving Forward effort to build on future considerations and next steps identified in the Basin Study. The Moving Forward effort builds upon and enhances the broad, inclusive stakeholder process demonstrated in the Basin Study with an ultimate goal of identifying actionable steps to address projected water supply and demand imbalances that have broad-based support and provide a wide-range of benefits. The Moving Forward effort is being conducted in a phased approach. Phase 1, which was funded by Reclamation and the Basin States, began with the formation of a Coordination Team and three multi-stakeholder workgroups that focus on water conservation, reuse, and environmental and recreational flows. The Phase 1 Report documents the activities and outcomes of the workgroups during this phase. Commenting on the information provided in the Phase 1 Report is encouraged. Written comments should be submitted within 90 days following the release of this report. The comments will be summarized and posted to the Moving Forward website and will be considered in future Moving Forward phases. Instructions for submitting comments are provided at [this link].