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Atmospheric rivers cause warm winters and extreme heat events

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | December 18th, 2024

Summary

Click here for a plain language summary and interview with the authors by Yale News.

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Atmospheric rivers drive flood damages in the western United States

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | December 4th, 2019

Summary

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are extratropical storms that produce extreme precipitation on the west coasts of the world’s major landmasses. In the United States, ARs caus

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Atmospheric rivers impact California's coastal water quality via extreme precipitation

Science of the Total Environment (Elsevier) | June 25th, 2019

Summary

Precipitation in California is projected to become more volatile: less frequent but more extreme as global warming pushes midlatitude frontal cyclones further poleward wh

Precipitation in California is projected to become more volatile: less frequent but more extreme as global warming pushes midlatitude frontal cyclones further poleward while bolstering the atmospheric rivers (ARs), which tend to produce the region's extreme rainfall. Pollutant accumulation and delivery to coastal waters can be expected to increase, as lengthening dry spells will be increasingly punctuated by more extreme precipitation events. Coastal pollution exposes human populations to high levels of fecal bacteria and associated pathogens, which can cause a variety of health impacts. Consequently, studying the impact of atmospheric rivers as the mechanism generating pulses of water pollution in coastal areas is relevant for public health and in the context of climate change. We aimed to quantify the links between precipitation events and water quality in order to explore meteorological causes as first steps toward effective early warning systems for the benefit of population health in California and beyond. We used historical gridded daily precipitation and weekly multiple fecal bacteria indicators at ~500 monitoring locations in California's coastal waters to identify weekly associations between precipitation and water quality during 2003–09 using canonical correlation analysis to account for the nested/clustered nature of longitudinal data. We then quantified, using a recently published catalog of atmospheric rivers, the proportion of coastal pollution events attributable to ARs. Association between precipitation and fecal bacteria was strongest in Southern California. Over two-thirds of coastal water pollution spikes exceeding one standard deviation were associated with ARs. This work highlights the importance of skillful AR landfall predictions in reducing vulnerability to extreme weather improving resilience of human populations in a varying and changing climate. Quantifying the impacts of ARs on waterborne diseases is important for planning effective preventive strategies for public health.

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Atmospheric Rivers Impacting Northern California Exhibit a Quasi-Decadal Frequency

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | July 26th, 2021

Summary

In Northern California, much of the precipitation and surface water comes from atmospheric rivers–corridors of moisture transport from the tropics. The frequency of atm

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Atmospheric rivers impacting western North America in a world with climate intervention

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | May 18th, 2022

Summary

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) impacting western North America are analyzed under climate intervention applying stratospheric aerosol injections (SAI) using simulations produce

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Atmospheric rivers in 20 year weather and climate simulations: A multi-model, global evaluation

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | June 1st, 2017

Summary

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are narrow, elongated, synoptic jets of water vapor that play importantroles in the global water cycle and meteorological/hydrological extremes.

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Atmospheric Rivers, Floods and the Water Resources of California

Water (MDPI) | April 5th, 2011

Summary

California’s highly variable climate and growing water demands combine to pose both water-supply and flood-hazard challenges to resource managers. Recently important ef

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Attributing Extreme Events to Climate Change: A New Frontier in a Warming World

Cell Press | June 19th, 2020

Summary

The emerging field of extreme event attribution (EEA) seeks to answer the question: ‘‘Has climate change influenced the frequency, likelihood, and/or severity

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Attribution of declining western U.S. snowpack to human effects

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | December 1st, 2008

Summary

Observations show snowpack has declined across much of the western United States over the period 1950–99. This reduction has important social and economic impli

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August 2025 Most Probable 24-Month Study

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) | August 15th, 2025

Summary

The August 2024 24-Month Study projected the January 1, 2025, Lake Mead elevation to be below 1,075 feet and above 1,050 feet. Consistent with Section 2.D.1 of the Interi

The August 2024 24-Month Study projected the January 1, 2025, Lake Mead elevation to be below 1,075 feet and above 1,050 feet. Consistent with Section 2.D.1 of the Interim Guidelines, a Shortage Condition consistent with Section 2.D.1.a will govern the operation of Lake Mead for calendar year (CY) 2025. In addition, Section III.B of Exhibit 1 to the Lower Basin Drought Contingency Plan (DCP) Agreement will also govern the operation of Lake Mead for CY 2025. Lower Basin projections for Lake Mead take into consideration additional conservation efforts under the LC Conservation Program. The August 2025 24-Month Study projected the January 1, 2026, Lake Powell elevation to be less than 3,575 feet and at or above 3,525 feet and the Lake Mead elevation to be at or above 1,025 feet. Consistent with Section 6.C.1 of the Interim Guidelines, and Section 6.E of the 2024 Interim Guidelines SEIS ROD, the operational tier for Lake Powell in WY 2026 is the Mid-Elevation Release Tier and the water year release volume from Lake Powell is projected to be 7.48 maf. Given the hydrologic variability of the Colorado River System, the actual water year 2026 operations, and being consistent with Section 6.E of the 2024 Interim Guidelines SEIS ROD, the projected release from Lake Powell in water year 2026 may be less than 7.48 maf. The August 2025 24-Month Study projected the January 1, 2026, Lake Mead elevation to be below 1,075 feet and above 1,050 feet. Consistent with Section 2.D.1 of the Interim Guidelines, a Shortage Condition consistent with Section 2.D.1.a will govern the operation of Lake Mead for CY 2026. In addition, Section III.B of Exhibit 1 to the Lower Basin DCP Agreement will also govern the operation of Lake Mead for CY 2026. Lower Basin projections for Lake Mead take into consideration additional conservation efforts under the LC Conservation Program. The 2026 operational tier determinations for Lake Powell and Lake Mead will be documented in the 2026 AOP, which is currently in development. Related scenarios: August 2025 Probable Minimum 24-Month Study August 2025 Probable Maximum 24-Month Study

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Atmospheric rivers cause warm winters and extreme heat events

Atmospheric rivers drive flood damages in the western United States

Atmospheric rivers impact California's coastal water quality via extreme precipitation

Atmospheric Rivers Impacting Northern California Exhibit a Quasi-Decadal Frequency

Atmospheric rivers impacting western North America in a world with climate intervention

Atmospheric rivers in 20 year weather and climate simulations: A multi-model, global evaluation

Atmospheric Rivers, Floods and the Water Resources of California

Attributing Extreme Events to Climate Change: A New Frontier in a Warming World

Attribution of declining western U.S. snowpack to human effects

August 2025 Most Probable 24-Month Study

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