Megadroughts in the Common Era and the Anthropocene

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | October 4th, 2022

Exceptional drought events, known as megadroughts, have occurred on every continent outside Antarctica over the past ~2,000 years, causing major ecological and societal

Exceptional drought events, known as megadroughts, have occurred on every continent outside Antarctica over the past ~2,000 years, causing major ecological and societal disturbances. In this Review, we discuss shared causes and features of Common Era (Year 1–present) and future megadroughts. Decadal variations in sea surface temperatures are the primary driver of megadroughts, with secondary contributions from radiative forcing and land–atmosphere interactions. Anthropogenic climate change has intensified ongoing megadroughts in south-western North America and across Chile and Argentina. Future megadroughts will be substantially warmer than past events, with this warming driving projected increases in megadrought risk and severity across many regions, including western North America, Central America, Europe and the Mediterranean, extratropical South America, and Australia. However, several knowledge gaps currently undermine confidence in understanding past and future megadroughts. These gaps include a paucity of high-resolution palaeoclimate information over Africa, tropical South America and other regions; incomplete representations of internal variability and land surface processes in climate models; and the undetermined capacity of water-resource management systems to mitigate megadrought impacts. Addressing these deficiencies will be crucial for increasing confidence in projections of future megadrought risk and for resiliency planning.

Megapluvials in Southwestern North America

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | March 25th, 2025

Droughts over the last century in Southwestern North America (SWNA) have had severe consequences for people and ecosystems across the region, most recently during the ear

Droughts over the last century in Southwestern North America (SWNA) have had severe consequences for people and ecosystems across the region, most recently during the early 21st-century megadrought (2000–2022). The 20thcentury, however, was bracketed by two extended pluvials that also had significant impacts in the region. We use a 1,224 years (800–2023 CE) record of observed and reconstructed soil moisture, in concert with a paleoclimate reanalysis product, to place the 20th-century pluvials in a longer-term context and investigate the occurrence and dynamics of similar events in the Common Era.

Meta-analysis reveals negative yet variable effects of ocean acidification on marine organisms: Biological responses to ocean acidification

Ecology Letters (Wiley) | August 16th, 2010

Ocean acidification is a pervasive stressor that could affect many marine organisms and cause profound ecological shifts. A variety of biological responses to ocean acid

Ocean acidification is a pervasive stressor that could affect many marine organisms and cause profound ecological shifts. A variety of biological responses to ocean acidification have been measured across a range of taxa, but this information exists as case studies and has not been synthesized into meaningful comparisons amongst response variables and functional groups. We used meta-analytic techniques to explore the biological responses to ocean acidification, and found negative effects on survival, calcification, growth and reproduction. However, there was significant variation in the sensitivity of marine organisms. Calcifying organisms generally exhibited larger negative responses than non-calcifying organisms across numerous response variables, with the exception ofcrustaceans, which calcify but were not negatively affected. Calcification responses varied significantly amongst organisms using different mineral forms of calcium carbonate.Organisms using one of the more soluble forms of calcium carbonate (high-magnesium calcite) can be more resilient to ocean acidification than less soluble forms (calcite and aragonite). Additionally, there was variation in the sensitivities of different developmental stages, but this variation was dependent on the taxonomic group. Our analyses suggest that the biological effects of ocean acidification are generally large and negative, but the variation in sensitivity amongst organisms has important implications for ecosystem responses.

Metals in Wildfire Suppressants

American Chemical Society (ACS) | October 30th, 2024

Meteorological and geographical factors associated with dry lightning in central and northern California

Environmental Research: Climate (IOP) | August 8th, 2022

Lightning occurring with less than 2.5 mm of rainfall—typically referred to as ‘dry lightning’—is a major source of wildfire ignition in central and northern Cali

Lightning occurring with less than 2.5 mm of rainfall—typically referred to as ‘dry lightning’—is a major source of wildfire ignition in central and northern California. Despite being rare, dry lightning outbreaks have resulted in destructive fires in this region due to the intersection of dense, dry vegetation and a large population living adjacent to fire-prone lands. Since thunderstorms are much less common in this region relative to the interior West, the climatology and drivers of dry lightning have not been widely investigated in central and northern California. Using daily gridded lightning and precipitation observations (1987–2020) in combination with atmospheric reanalyses, we characterize the climatology of dry lightning and the associated meteorological conditions during the warm season (May–October) when wildfire risk is highest. Across the domain, nearly half (∼46%) of all cloud-to-ground lightning flashes occurred as dry lightning during the study period. We find that higher elevations (>2000 m) receive more dry lightning compared to lower elevations (

Meteorological driving forces of reference evapotranspiration and their trends in California

Science of the Total Environment (Elsevier) | August 13th, 2022

Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is a variable that helps determine atmospheric pressure on living (reference) grass to release water into the atmosphere. For this purp

Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is a variable that helps determine atmospheric pressure on living (reference) grass to release water into the atmosphere. For this purpose, four main driving forces: air temperature, air humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed need to be measured over the well-watered reference grass. The relative influence of these driving forces is region and climate-specific, with daily and seasonal variations. A clear understanding of the dynamic interactions of ETo's driving factors can illuminate the water and energy cycles of the earth and assist modelers with more accurate predictions of ETo. In this study, Pearson correlation, mutual information, and random forest feature importance analyses have been used to evaluate the relative importance of meteorological driving forces of ETo in California. To better understand the interrelations of these variables, 1,365,823 daily data samples from 237 standardized weather stations for 36 years have been clustered into homogeneous climatic zones and analyzed. To compensate for the effects of seasonality, feature importance analysis is also conducted on seasonal and monthly clustered data. Moreover, seasonal and annual trends of ETo and its driving factors are investigated for California and homogeneous zones using the Mann-Kendall test. Our findings reveal that for annually clustered data, solar radiation is the most influential driving factor of ETo in California. However, analysis of seasonal and monthly clustered data shows that vapor pressure deficit is the most informative factor during the summer and spring, while solar radiation is more important during the colder seasons. Results of trend analysis don't suggest a consistent monotonic trend for ETo and other variables for different seasons and zones. However, it is shown that agricultural regions with heavy irrigation dependence like the Central Valley are getting warmer and drier, especially during the irrigation season. This can adversely affect the water resources, agriculture industry, and food production of California, and modeling efforts like this can be very informative for future water resources management.

Methane emissions from groundwater pumping in the USA

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | March 25th, 2019

Atmospheric methane accumulation contributes to climate change, hence quantifying methane emissions is essential to assess and model the impacts. Here, we estimate metha

Atmospheric methane accumulation contributes to climate change, hence quantifying methane emissions is essential to assess and model the impacts. Here, we estimate methane emissions from groundwater pumping in the Los Angeles Basin (LAB), north-eastern Pennsylvania, and the Principal aquifers of the USA using the average concentrations of methane in groundwater and annual groundwater pumping volumes. High average methane concentrations, 44.1 mg/L, and extensive groundwater pumping, ~3.1 Å~1011 L/a in the LAB, result in the annual emission of ~2.9 Å~ 10−3 Tg of microbial methane. Ethane emissions in the LAB were 3.5 Å~10−6 Tg/a. Lower methane emissions estimated for NE Pennsylvania, ~3.0 Å~ 10−8 Tg/a, reflect lower methane concentrations and groundwater pumping, 0.7 mg/L and 4.67 Å~ 107 L/a, respectively. Methane concentrations and groundwater withdrawals, 1.06 Å~1014 L/a, across the USA enabled the estimation of the total emissions of methane from Principal aquifers (92% of total pumping) of 0.044 Tg/a in the year 2000, which represents a small percentage (~0.2%) of the total annual US methane emissions, but a previously unquantified flux in the global methane budget. Globally, groundwater-pumping methane emissions were estimated to be 0.53 Tg/a, 0.2% of global methane emissions, by adopting a global estimate for groundwater extraction, and an average methane concentration in older groundwater of 0.44 mg/L.

Methods Used to Update Ecosystem Restoration Maps Using New Digital Elevation Model and Tidal Data

Delta Stewardship Council (Delta Council) | June 29th, 2022

Modeling residential development in California from 2000 to 2050: Integrating wildfire risk, wildland and agricultural encroachment

Land Use Policy (Elsevier) | November 1st, 2014

Between 1940 and 2000, nearly 10 million housing units were constructed throughout California. This increased interaction between human and natural communities creates a

Between 1940 and 2000, nearly 10 million housing units were constructed throughout California. This increased interaction between human and natural communities creates a number of significant socio-ecological challenges. Here we present a novel spatially explicit model that allows better characterization of the extent and intensity of future housing settlements using three development scenarios between 2000 and 2050. We estimate that California’s exurban land classes will replace nearly 12 million acres of wild and agricultural lands. This will increase threats to ecosystems and those presented by wild fire, as the number of houses in ‘very high’ wildfire severity zones increases by nearly 1 million.

Modeling the impact of future rainfall changes on the effectiveness of urban stormwater control measures

Springer Nature | February 19th, 2024

The convergence of urban expansion, deteriorating infrastructure, and a changing climate will escalate the risks of stormwater pollution and urban flooding in the coming

The convergence of urban expansion, deteriorating infrastructure, and a changing climate will escalate the risks of stormwater pollution and urban flooding in the coming decades. Using outputs from an ensemble of global climate models to drive a high spatial resolution stormwater model, we analyzed climate change impacts on urban stormwater runoff and control measures for 23 cities across the United States. Runoff model outputs for two future emissions scenarios ending in 2055 were compared against a historical scenario to assess changes. All cities showed increases in average annual stormwater runoff, with changes up to 30% over the next 30 years due to a greater frequency of high intensity storm events. Runoff model outputs showed substantial variation across cities with untreated stormwater runoff increasing by as much as 48%. Patterns of future runoff impacts within cities will affect the performance of distributed treatment strategies such as Green Stormwater Infrastructure (GSI) to meet municipal water quality improvement and runoff reduction goals. Results indicate that adoption of adaptable design standards and decision support tools that readily accommodate projected precipitation changes are critical for supporting more resilient designs of stormwater control measures.