Mean and Extreme Climate Change Impacts on the State Water Project

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | August 27th, 2018

Warming temperatures, shifting hydrology, and rising sea levels will challenge management of California’s water resources. This study quantifies climate change risks t

Warming temperatures, shifting hydrology, and rising sea levels will challenge management of California’s water resources. This study quantifies climate change risks to California’s State Water Project (SWP) and federal Central Valley Project (CVP). This study uses the California Department of Water Resources’ (DWR’s) newly developed water planning model, CalSim 3.0, as a risk assessment tool. Impacts were assessed for 20 climate change scenarios (10 global climate models and two emission scenarios, representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Water supply and water quality metrics evaluated include Delta exports, North of Delta Carryover storage, reservoir dead storage (i.e. when reservoir levels fall below the lowest outlets), and Delta salinity. Results for the driest future scenario were also analyzed to examine future drought impacts. In addition, a series of sensitivity tests were implemented to assess individual impacts of four climate change factors: flow seasonal pattern shift, sea level rise, annual flow volume change, and water demand change on the State Water Project and Central Valley Project operations. It was found that flow seasonal pattern shift will become a major climate change factor and sea level rise a secondary factor, leading to a half million‐acre feet of Delta export reduction as well as a roughly 25% decrease of North‐of‐Delta carryover storage by around 2060. The results also indicate that the extra runoff from early snow melting and higher percentage of rain in the winter and early spring is not conserved in reservoirs and thus cannot be used to meet the higher summer demand in the current SWP/CVP system. This extra water is released as flood water in the winter and early spring to become Delta outflow.

Mechanisms of a Meteorological Drought Onset: Summer 2020 to Spring 2021 in Southwestern North America

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | November 1st, 2022

By summer 2021 moderate to exceptional drought impacted 28% of North America, focused west of the Mississippi, with serious impacts on fire, water resources, and agricult

By summer 2021 moderate to exceptional drought impacted 28% of North America, focused west of the Mississippi, with serious impacts on fire, water resources, and agriculture. Here, using reanalyses and SST-forced climate models, we examine the onset and development of this southwestern drought from its inception in summer 2020 through winter and spring 2020/21. The drought severity in summer 2021 resulted from four consecutive prior seasons in which precipitation in the southwest United States was the lowest on record or, at least, extremely dry. The dry conditions in summer 2020 arose from internal atmospheric variability but are beyond the range of what the studied atmosphere models simulate for that season. From winter 2020 through spring 2021 the worsening drought conditions were guided by the development of a La Niña in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Decadal variability in the Pacific Ocean aided drought in the southern part of the region by driving the cool season to be drier during the last two decades. There is also evidence that the southern part of the region in spring is drying due to human-driven climate change. In sum the drought onset was driven by a combination of internal atmospheric variability and interannual climate variability and aided by natural decadal variability and human-driven climate change.

Mediterranean California’s water use future under multiple scenarios of developed and agricultural land use change

PLOS | October 31st, 2017

With growing demand and highly variable inter-annual water supplies, California’s water use future is fraught with uncertainty. Climate change projections, anti

With growing demand and highly variable inter-annual water supplies, California’s water use future is fraught with uncertainty. Climate change projections, anticipated population growth, and continued agricultural intensification, will likely stress existing water supplies in coming decades. Using a state-and-transition simulation modeling approach, we examine a broad suite of spatially explicit future land use scenarios and their associated county-level water use demand out to 2062. We examined a range of potential water demand futures sampled from a 20-year record of historical (1992–2012) data to develop a suite of potential future land change scenarios, including low/high change scenarios for urbanization and agriculture as well as “lowest of the low” and “highest of the high” anthropogenic use. Future water demand decreased 8.3 billion cubic meters (Bm3) in the lowest of the low scenario and decreased 0.8 Bm3 in the low agriculture scenario. The greatest increased water demand was projected for the highest of the high land use scenario (+9.4 Bm3), high agricultural expansion (+4.6 Bm3), and high urbanization (+2.1 Bm3) scenarios. Overall, these scenarios show agricultural land use decisions will likely drive future demand more than increasing municipal and industrial uses, yet improved efficiencies across all sectors could lead to potential water use savings. Results provide water managers with information on diverging land use and water use futures, based on historical, observed land change trends and water use histories.

Megadroughts in the Common Era and the Anthropocene

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | October 4th, 2022

Exceptional drought events, known as megadroughts, have occurred on every continent outside Antarctica over the past ~2,000 years, causing major ecological and societal

Exceptional drought events, known as megadroughts, have occurred on every continent outside Antarctica over the past ~2,000 years, causing major ecological and societal disturbances. In this Review, we discuss shared causes and features of Common Era (Year 1–present) and future megadroughts. Decadal variations in sea surface temperatures are the primary driver of megadroughts, with secondary contributions from radiative forcing and land–atmosphere interactions. Anthropogenic climate change has intensified ongoing megadroughts in south-western North America and across Chile and Argentina. Future megadroughts will be substantially warmer than past events, with this warming driving projected increases in megadrought risk and severity across many regions, including western North America, Central America, Europe and the Mediterranean, extratropical South America, and Australia. However, several knowledge gaps currently undermine confidence in understanding past and future megadroughts. These gaps include a paucity of high-resolution palaeoclimate information over Africa, tropical South America and other regions; incomplete representations of internal variability and land surface processes in climate models; and the undetermined capacity of water-resource management systems to mitigate megadrought impacts. Addressing these deficiencies will be crucial for increasing confidence in projections of future megadrought risk and for resiliency planning.

Megapluvials in Southwestern North America

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | March 25th, 2025

Droughts over the last century in Southwestern North America (SWNA) have had severe consequences for people and ecosystems across the region, most recently during the ear

Droughts over the last century in Southwestern North America (SWNA) have had severe consequences for people and ecosystems across the region, most recently during the early 21st-century megadrought (2000–2022). The 20thcentury, however, was bracketed by two extended pluvials that also had significant impacts in the region. We use a 1,224 years (800–2023 CE) record of observed and reconstructed soil moisture, in concert with a paleoclimate reanalysis product, to place the 20th-century pluvials in a longer-term context and investigate the occurrence and dynamics of similar events in the Common Era.

Meta-analysis reveals negative yet variable effects of ocean acidification on marine organisms: Biological responses to ocean acidification

Ecology Letters (Wiley) | August 16th, 2010

Ocean acidification is a pervasive stressor that could affect many marine organisms and cause profound ecological shifts. A variety of biological responses to ocean acid

Ocean acidification is a pervasive stressor that could affect many marine organisms and cause profound ecological shifts. A variety of biological responses to ocean acidification have been measured across a range of taxa, but this information exists as case studies and has not been synthesized into meaningful comparisons amongst response variables and functional groups. We used meta-analytic techniques to explore the biological responses to ocean acidification, and found negative effects on survival, calcification, growth and reproduction. However, there was significant variation in the sensitivity of marine organisms. Calcifying organisms generally exhibited larger negative responses than non-calcifying organisms across numerous response variables, with the exception ofcrustaceans, which calcify but were not negatively affected. Calcification responses varied significantly amongst organisms using different mineral forms of calcium carbonate.Organisms using one of the more soluble forms of calcium carbonate (high-magnesium calcite) can be more resilient to ocean acidification than less soluble forms (calcite and aragonite). Additionally, there was variation in the sensitivities of different developmental stages, but this variation was dependent on the taxonomic group. Our analyses suggest that the biological effects of ocean acidification are generally large and negative, but the variation in sensitivity amongst organisms has important implications for ecosystem responses.

Meteorological and geographical factors associated with dry lightning in central and northern California

Environmental Research: Climate (IOP) | August 8th, 2022

Lightning occurring with less than 2.5 mm of rainfall—typically referred to as ‘dry lightning’—is a major source of wildfire ignition in central and northern Cali

Lightning occurring with less than 2.5 mm of rainfall—typically referred to as ‘dry lightning’—is a major source of wildfire ignition in central and northern California. Despite being rare, dry lightning outbreaks have resulted in destructive fires in this region due to the intersection of dense, dry vegetation and a large population living adjacent to fire-prone lands. Since thunderstorms are much less common in this region relative to the interior West, the climatology and drivers of dry lightning have not been widely investigated in central and northern California. Using daily gridded lightning and precipitation observations (1987–2020) in combination with atmospheric reanalyses, we characterize the climatology of dry lightning and the associated meteorological conditions during the warm season (May–October) when wildfire risk is highest. Across the domain, nearly half (∼46%) of all cloud-to-ground lightning flashes occurred as dry lightning during the study period. We find that higher elevations (>2000 m) receive more dry lightning compared to lower elevations (

Meteorological driving forces of reference evapotranspiration and their trends in California

Science of the Total Environment (Elsevier) | August 13th, 2022

Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is a variable that helps determine atmospheric pressure on living (reference) grass to release water into the atmosphere. For this purp

Reference evapotranspiration (ETo) is a variable that helps determine atmospheric pressure on living (reference) grass to release water into the atmosphere. For this purpose, four main driving forces: air temperature, air humidity, solar radiation, and wind speed need to be measured over the well-watered reference grass. The relative influence of these driving forces is region and climate-specific, with daily and seasonal variations. A clear understanding of the dynamic interactions of ETo's driving factors can illuminate the water and energy cycles of the earth and assist modelers with more accurate predictions of ETo. In this study, Pearson correlation, mutual information, and random forest feature importance analyses have been used to evaluate the relative importance of meteorological driving forces of ETo in California. To better understand the interrelations of these variables, 1,365,823 daily data samples from 237 standardized weather stations for 36 years have been clustered into homogeneous climatic zones and analyzed. To compensate for the effects of seasonality, feature importance analysis is also conducted on seasonal and monthly clustered data. Moreover, seasonal and annual trends of ETo and its driving factors are investigated for California and homogeneous zones using the Mann-Kendall test. Our findings reveal that for annually clustered data, solar radiation is the most influential driving factor of ETo in California. However, analysis of seasonal and monthly clustered data shows that vapor pressure deficit is the most informative factor during the summer and spring, while solar radiation is more important during the colder seasons. Results of trend analysis don't suggest a consistent monotonic trend for ETo and other variables for different seasons and zones. However, it is shown that agricultural regions with heavy irrigation dependence like the Central Valley are getting warmer and drier, especially during the irrigation season. This can adversely affect the water resources, agriculture industry, and food production of California, and modeling efforts like this can be very informative for future water resources management.

Methane emissions from groundwater pumping in the USA

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | March 25th, 2019

Atmospheric methane accumulation contributes to climate change, hence quantifying methane emissions is essential to assess and model the impacts. Here, we estimate metha

Atmospheric methane accumulation contributes to climate change, hence quantifying methane emissions is essential to assess and model the impacts. Here, we estimate methane emissions from groundwater pumping in the Los Angeles Basin (LAB), north-eastern Pennsylvania, and the Principal aquifers of the USA using the average concentrations of methane in groundwater and annual groundwater pumping volumes. High average methane concentrations, 44.1 mg/L, and extensive groundwater pumping, ~3.1 Å~1011 L/a in the LAB, result in the annual emission of ~2.9 Å~ 10−3 Tg of microbial methane. Ethane emissions in the LAB were 3.5 Å~10−6 Tg/a. Lower methane emissions estimated for NE Pennsylvania, ~3.0 Å~ 10−8 Tg/a, reflect lower methane concentrations and groundwater pumping, 0.7 mg/L and 4.67 Å~ 107 L/a, respectively. Methane concentrations and groundwater withdrawals, 1.06 Å~1014 L/a, across the USA enabled the estimation of the total emissions of methane from Principal aquifers (92% of total pumping) of 0.044 Tg/a in the year 2000, which represents a small percentage (~0.2%) of the total annual US methane emissions, but a previously unquantified flux in the global methane budget. Globally, groundwater-pumping methane emissions were estimated to be 0.53 Tg/a, 0.2% of global methane emissions, by adopting a global estimate for groundwater extraction, and an average methane concentration in older groundwater of 0.44 mg/L.

Methods Used to Update Ecosystem Restoration Maps Using New Digital Elevation Model and Tidal Data

Delta Stewardship Council (Delta Council) | June 29th, 2022