Managing An Uncertain Future: Climate Change Adaptation Strategies for California’s Water

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | December 12th, 2008

For California water managers, the future is now. Climate change is already having a profound impact on water resources as evidenced by changes in snowpack, river flows a

For California water managers, the future is now. Climate change is already having a profound impact on water resources as evidenced by changes in snowpack, river flows and sea levels. The Department of Water Resources (DWR) will continue to play a leadership role in adapting to these changes. DWR is already engaged in a number of efforts designed to improve California’s ability to cope with a changing climate. However, more must be done. This report recommends a series of adaptation strategies for state and local water managers to improve their capacity to handle change. Many of the strategies will also help adapt our water resources to accommodate non-climate demands including a growing population, ecosystem restoration and greater flood protection. Several of the recommendations in this report are ready for immediate adoption, while others need additional public deliberation and development. Some can be implemented using existing resources and authority, while the majority will require new resources, sustained financial investment and significant collaborative effort. Many of California’s most important water resource investments remain dependent on bond funding approved by voters. As a result, they are well funded in some years, but underfunded in most. This history of uneven and irregular investment has delayed progress in areas that have the potential to yield substantial gains over short periods of time. DWR presents this report as part of the process of updating the California Water Plan, and as part of the California Resources Agency’s draft statewide Climate Adaptation Plan. Overall, this report urges a new approach to managing California’s water and other natural resources in the face of a changing climate.

Managing diversions in unregulated streams using a modified percent-of-flow approach

Freshwater Biology (Wiley) | August 22nd, 2017

In Mediterranean-type river systems stream flows are naturally low in summer and autumn. This pattern is often exacerbated by over-exploitation of water resources during

In Mediterranean-type river systems stream flows are naturally low in summer and autumn. This pattern is often exacerbated by over-exploitation of water resources during the dry season, which has implications for managing flows for both environmental and human needs. Mediterranean systems are characterised by strong inter- and intra-annual variability with almost all precipitation occurring in winter months followed by summer droughts with little or no rainfall, and extreme year-to-year variation ranging from intense winter storms to year-round drought (Gasith & Resh, 1999; Power, Kupferberg, Cooper, & Deas, 2015; Power, Parker, & Dietrich, 2008). The seasonal pattern of precipitation in Mediterranean climatic regions results in water availability and demand being out-of-phase; precipitation and runoff occur (almost exclusively) in winter when human demands are lowest, and precipitation is virtually non-existent in summer months when human demand is greatest (Kondolf & Batalla, 2005; Merenlender & Matella, 2013). As a result, rivers in Mediterranean climates tend to have a high degree of alteration with streamsdiverted and dammed to provide scarce water for human use (Kondolf, Podolak, & Grantham, 2013; Marr et al., 2009; Moyle, 2013). While the biophysical responses to alterations of land use, vegetation and hydrology are similar in Mediterranean and other climatic regions, the magnitude of responses tends to be intensified in Mediterranean systems. For example prolonged dry season flows may result in lower dissolved oxygen, higher temperatures and concentration of contaminants among other impacts (Cooper, Lake, Sabater, Melack, & Sabo, 2013). Climate change and increasing frequency and severity of drought promise to increase the conflict between human needs and ecological needs over time (Arthington, 2012).

Managing for Future Risks of Fire, Extreme Precipitation, and Post-fire Flooding

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) | September 30th, 2016

On September 22–23, 2014, 23 scientists, resource managers, and urban planners convened in Las Vegas, Nevada, to discuss research and management needs related to seve

On September 22–23, 2014, 23 scientists, resource managers, and urban planners convened in Las Vegas, Nevada, to discuss research and management needs related to severe fires and post-fire flooding in the Intermountain West. The workshop was motivated by the concerns of water management agencies about the potential for a changing climate to exacerbate fire impacts through: 1) projected increases in acres burned; 2) potential changes in the intensity of future extreme precipitation; and 3) the frequency of extreme events, which the National Climate Assessment projects to at least double across the region. The workshop was convened by the University of Arizona with funding provided by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation.

Managing retreat for sandy beach areas under sea level rise

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | July 24th, 2023

Managing Wastewater in a Changing Climate

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | April 15th, 2019

California’s wastewater sector, which plays a crucial role in protecting publichealth and the environment, is at a turning point. Water supply and demand condit

California’s wastewater sector, which plays a crucial role in protecting publichealth and the environment, is at a turning point. Water supply and demand conditions are being affected by population growth, technology and policy changes, and drought. Climate change will bring new challenges. Wastewater agencies are tasked with reliably removing pollutants from water discarded to sewers, even as the quantity and quality of the water they treat declines. Of the multiple climate pressures that are likely to affect wastewater management, drought poses the biggest challenge for the sector. The unusually hot drought of 2012–16 provided a vivid demonstration of conditions that may become more common as the climate warms, and was a wake-up call for wastewater agencies. Many wastewater agencies are pursuing specific changes to their operations, infrastructure, or finances in response to the cascade of challenges they experienced during the latest drought. A PPIC survey of wastewater agencies done as part of this study found a high degree of concern in the sector about adapting to a changing climate. This report recommends policy and management changes to help build resilience in three broad areas: 1) Maintaining water quality in the face of changing water use.Wastewater management is challenged by short-term water conservation during droughts and longer-term reductions in water use from indoor efficiency measures—conditions which are largelybeyond the sector’s control. Reductions in indoor water use can damage infrastructure and reduce the effectiveness of existing treatment processes. Such challenges may grow as severe droughts become more frequent with climate change and as water efficiency increases. Better coordination and information sharing with water suppliers, and sector-wide planning for future droughts, are key to addressing these changes. 2) Making smart recycled water investments. Wastewater agencies produce highly treated water that is increasingly being reused as a water supply. Coordination among wastewater and water supply agencies is essential to respond to the increasing demand for recycled water. Formalized planning for recycled water projects at the regional level will likely lead to more efficient processes and better outcomes. New investments must be responsive to changing water use, climate change, and pending regulations. 3) Balancing conflicting objectives within watersheds. Most wastewater treatment plants discharge treated water into inland watersheds. Adapting to declining water use and meeting increased demand for recycled water may conflict with environmental objectives and the demands of downstream users. Rivers and streams are expected to experience lower flows and higher temperatures, which will heighten threats to aquatic ecosystems. Resources to identify areas most at risk of conflict over the use of treated wastewater are needed, as are tools to evaluate the impacts of water recycling projects on the environment and downstream water users. The state should also analyze its policies to identify tradeoffs and resolve conflicts between its water supply, water quality, and environmental goals. Advancements in engineering and technology can help wastewater agencies adapt to a changing climate―but shifts in policy and planning will facilitate a more efficient and effective path toward building resilience. The latest drought provided a window into the looming challenges facing the wastewater sector. Forging new partnerships and evaluating the full range of climate-related risks will help the sector determine the best adaptations and policy improvements needed to prepare the wastewater sector for a more volatile future.

Marine heat wave and multiple stressors tip bull kelp forest to sea urchin barrens

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | October 21st, 2019

Extreme climatic events have recently impacted marine ecosystems around the world, including foundation species such as corals and kelps. Here, we describe the

Extreme climatic events have recently impacted marine ecosystems around the world, including foundation species such as corals and kelps. Here, we describe the rapid climate-driven catastrophic shift in 2014 from a previously robust kelp forest to unproductive large scale urchin barrens in Northern California. Bull kelp canopy was reduced by >90% along more than 350 km of coastline. Twenty years of kelp ecosystem surveys reveal the timing and magnitude of events, including mass mortalities of sea stars (2013-), intense ocean warming (2014–2017), and sea urchin barrens (2015-). Multiple stressors led to the unprecedented and long-lasting decline of the kelp forest. Kelp deforestation triggered mass (80%) abalone mortality (2017) resulting in the closure in 2018 of the recreational abalone fishery worth an estimated $44 M and the collapse of the north coast commercial red sea urchin fishery (2015-) worth $3 M. Key questions remain such as the relative roles of ocean warming and sea star disease in the massive purple sea urchin population increase. Science and policy will need to partner to better understand drivers, build climate-resilient fisheries and kelp forest recovery strategies in order to restore essential kelp forest ecosystem services.

Marine heatwaves need clear definitions so coastal communities can adapt

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | April 3rd, 2023

Mean and Extreme Climate Change Impacts on the State Water Project

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | August 27th, 2018

Warming temperatures, shifting hydrology, and rising sea levels will challenge management of California’s water resources. This study quantifies climate change risks t

Warming temperatures, shifting hydrology, and rising sea levels will challenge management of California’s water resources. This study quantifies climate change risks to California’s State Water Project (SWP) and federal Central Valley Project (CVP). This study uses the California Department of Water Resources’ (DWR’s) newly developed water planning model, CalSim 3.0, as a risk assessment tool. Impacts were assessed for 20 climate change scenarios (10 global climate models and two emission scenarios, representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Water supply and water quality metrics evaluated include Delta exports, North of Delta Carryover storage, reservoir dead storage (i.e. when reservoir levels fall below the lowest outlets), and Delta salinity. Results for the driest future scenario were also analyzed to examine future drought impacts. In addition, a series of sensitivity tests were implemented to assess individual impacts of four climate change factors: flow seasonal pattern shift, sea level rise, annual flow volume change, and water demand change on the State Water Project and Central Valley Project operations. It was found that flow seasonal pattern shift will become a major climate change factor and sea level rise a secondary factor, leading to a half million‐acre feet of Delta export reduction as well as a roughly 25% decrease of North‐of‐Delta carryover storage by around 2060. The results also indicate that the extra runoff from early snow melting and higher percentage of rain in the winter and early spring is not conserved in reservoirs and thus cannot be used to meet the higher summer demand in the current SWP/CVP system. This extra water is released as flood water in the winter and early spring to become Delta outflow.

Mechanisms of a Meteorological Drought Onset: Summer 2020 to Spring 2021 in Southwestern North America

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | November 1st, 2022

By summer 2021 moderate to exceptional drought impacted 28% of North America, focused west of the Mississippi, with serious impacts on fire, water resources, and agricult

By summer 2021 moderate to exceptional drought impacted 28% of North America, focused west of the Mississippi, with serious impacts on fire, water resources, and agriculture. Here, using reanalyses and SST-forced climate models, we examine the onset and development of this southwestern drought from its inception in summer 2020 through winter and spring 2020/21. The drought severity in summer 2021 resulted from four consecutive prior seasons in which precipitation in the southwest United States was the lowest on record or, at least, extremely dry. The dry conditions in summer 2020 arose from internal atmospheric variability but are beyond the range of what the studied atmosphere models simulate for that season. From winter 2020 through spring 2021 the worsening drought conditions were guided by the development of a La Niña in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Decadal variability in the Pacific Ocean aided drought in the southern part of the region by driving the cool season to be drier during the last two decades. There is also evidence that the southern part of the region in spring is drying due to human-driven climate change. In sum the drought onset was driven by a combination of internal atmospheric variability and interannual climate variability and aided by natural decadal variability and human-driven climate change.

Mediterranean California’s water use future under multiple scenarios of developed and agricultural land use change

PLOS | October 31st, 2017

With growing demand and highly variable inter-annual water supplies, California’s water use future is fraught with uncertainty. Climate change projections, anti

With growing demand and highly variable inter-annual water supplies, California’s water use future is fraught with uncertainty. Climate change projections, anticipated population growth, and continued agricultural intensification, will likely stress existing water supplies in coming decades. Using a state-and-transition simulation modeling approach, we examine a broad suite of spatially explicit future land use scenarios and their associated county-level water use demand out to 2062. We examined a range of potential water demand futures sampled from a 20-year record of historical (1992–2012) data to develop a suite of potential future land change scenarios, including low/high change scenarios for urbanization and agriculture as well as “lowest of the low” and “highest of the high” anthropogenic use. Future water demand decreased 8.3 billion cubic meters (Bm3) in the lowest of the low scenario and decreased 0.8 Bm3 in the low agriculture scenario. The greatest increased water demand was projected for the highest of the high land use scenario (+9.4 Bm3), high agricultural expansion (+4.6 Bm3), and high urbanization (+2.1 Bm3) scenarios. Overall, these scenarios show agricultural land use decisions will likely drive future demand more than increasing municipal and industrial uses, yet improved efficiencies across all sectors could lead to potential water use savings. Results provide water managers with information on diverging land use and water use futures, based on historical, observed land change trends and water use histories.