Systems Analysis and Optimization of Local Water Supplies in Los Angeles

American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) | September 1st, 2017

Los Angeles, which relies on large infrastructure systems that import water over hundreds of miles, faces a future of reduced imports. Within Los Angeles and its hund

Los Angeles, which relies on large infrastructure systems that import water over hundreds of miles, faces a future of reduced imports. Within Los Angeles and its hundreds of water agencies, the capacity to adapt to future changes is influenced by laws, institutions, and hydrogeology. This paper presents a systems analysis of urban water management in metropolitan Los Angeles County to assess opportunities for increasing local water reliance. A network flow model was developed to investigate management tradeoffs across engineered, social, and environmental systems. With an aggressive regional demand target, increased stormwater capture (300%), and prioritized water reuse from existing facilities, imported water supplies can be cut by 30% while maintaining landscapes, economic productivity, and groundwater resources. Further reducing imports (by 40–50%) is possible through actions to promote additional reuse, recharge, conservation, and groundwater access. Reducing imported water without significant conservation results in likely groundwater overdraft. Fragmented networks of agencies in Los Angeles create an uneven landscape of vulnerability to water shortages. The paper discusses model applications, research needs, and policy implications of results for dry-climate cities.

Targeting climate diversity in conservation planning to build resilience to climate change

Ecological Society of America (Wiley) | April 24th, 2015

Climate change is raising challenging concerns for systematic conservation planning. Are methods based on the current spatial patterns of biodiversity effective g

Climate change is raising challenging concerns for systematic conservation planning. Are methods based on the current spatial patterns of biodiversity effective given long-term climate change? Some conservation scientists argue that planning should focus on protecting the abiotic diversity in the landscape, which drives patterns of biological diversity, rather than focusing on the distribution of focal species, which shift in response to climate change. Climate is one important abiotic driver of biodiversity patterns, as different climates host different biological communities and genetic pools. We propose conservation networks that capture the full range of climatic diversity in a region will improve the resilience of biotic communities to climate change compared to networks that do not. In this study we used historical and future hydro-climate projections from the high resolution Basin Characterization Model to explore the utility of directly targeting climatic diversity in planning. Using the spatial planning tool, Marxan, we designed conservation networks to capture the diversity of climate types, at the regional and sub-regional scale, and compared them to networks we designed to capture the diversity of vegetation types. By focusing on the Conservation Lands Network (CLN) of the San Francisco Bay Area as a real- world case study, we compared the potential resilience of networks by examining two factors: the range of climate space captured, and climatic stability to 18 future climates, reflecting different emission scenarios and global climate models. We found that the climate-based network planned at the sub-regional scale captured a greater range of climate space and showed higher climatic stability than the vegetation and regional based-networks. At the same time, differences among network scenarios are small relative to the variance in climate stability across global climate models. Across different projected futures, topographically heterogeneous areas consistently show greater climate stability than homogenous areas. The analysis suggests that utilizing high-resolution climate and hydrological data in conservation planning improves the likely resilience of biodiversity to climate change. We used these analyses to suggest new conservation priorities for the San Francisco Bay Area.

Temporal and Spatial Patterns of Groundwater Recharge Across a Small Watershed in the California Sierra Nevada Mountains

Frontiers in Water (Frontiers) | May 17th, 2022

Mountain-block groundwater recharge is a crucial freshwater source in arid to semiarid watersheds worldwide; yet its quantification is difficult due to (1) hydrogeologica

Mountain-block groundwater recharge is a crucial freshwater source in arid to semiarid watersheds worldwide; yet its quantification is difficult due to (1) hydrogeological heterogeneities especially in bedrock-dominated regimes, (2) drastic altitudinal ranges in climate, land use and land cover, and (3) mixing with deep groundwater derived from adjacent basins (i.e., interbasin groundwater flow). In this study, we test the utility of soil water-balance (SWB) modeling to quantify mountain-block groundwater recharge in the South Fork Tule River watershed in the California Sierra Nevada Mountains. This 1,018 km2 watershed is instrumented with 3 USGS stream gages that allow for the development of a refined recharge (i.e., baseflow) calibration dataset via multi-objective optimization-based hydrograph separation. The SWB model was used to compute groundwater recharge and other water balance components at a daily time step using a 30-m grid cell size for a 40-year (1980–2019) study period. Mean annual recharge and runoff were estimated at 3.7 in/yr (3.0 m3/s) and 1.4 in/yr (1.2 m3/s), respectively, with modified Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency indices of 0.61 between baseflow and SWB-derived recharge, and 0.90 between hydrograph separation- and SWB-derived runoff. There is a strong correlation between annual recharge and rainfall (Pearson R = 0.95, p < 0.001) which attests to short residence times in the unsaturated zone and the immediate impact of droughts in 1990, 1999, and 2013. However, results of a modified Mann-Kendall trend analysis indicate no directional trends in recharge or runoff throughout the study period. Parameter sensitivity analyses reveal a persistent overprediction of recharge over baseflow that is particularly pronounced in the upper reaches of the watershed. This is likely related to the SWB model only considering soil characteristics at the surface and not simulating the fate of potential recharge below the root zone where it may be impeded from reaching the aquifer by shallow, impermeable bedrock. This limitation should be considered carefully for future water supply projections in this and comparable bedrock-dominated settings.

Testing the Established Hydrogeologic Model of Source Water to the Amargosa River Basin, Inyo and San Bernardino Counties, California

Environmental Forensics (Taylor & Francis) | November 15th, 2015

The current conceptual hydrogeologic model established for source water to the Amargosa River was tested in order to help inform management decisions regarding the Amargo

The current conceptual hydrogeologic model established for source water to the Amargosa River was tested in order to help inform management decisions regarding the Amargosa River's Federal designation as Wild and Scenic through an Act of Congress. The limited availability of water in this region results in the critical need for effective management in the basin to maintain its Wild and Scenic attributes inclusive of habitat for several endangered and threatened species. The use of forensic tools and integration of multiple lines of geologic, hydrogeologic, geochemical, and stable isotopic evidence suggest that the simple historical model for primary groundwater transport through this region is incorrect and that a large supply of regional baseflow does not provide the hydrogeological foundation of the Amargosa River basin. Data collected is consistent with an alternative model requiring complex source mixing and shallow alluvial groundwater that supports river flow. This conclusion also suggests Wild and Scenic conditions in this basin are more precarious than previously understood.

The Application of Ground-Water Flow Models as Predictive Tools—A Review of Two Ground-Water Models of Eastern Honey Lake Valley, California-Nevada

Geological Society of America (GSA) | January 9th, 1992

In the late 1980's Washoe County, Nevada, entered into an agreement with a private water development company to develop and export groundwater from the Nevada portion of

In the late 1980's Washoe County, Nevada, entered into an agreement with a private water development company to develop and export groundwater from the Nevada portion of the arid Honey Lake Valley to the rapidly growing Reno-Sparks area. The proposed project is known as the Truckee Meadows Project (TMP). Honey Lake Valley is 35 mi north of Reno, Nevada; but is located predominantly in California. Computer groundwater models of the valley were prepared by the USGS and the TMP proponents and presented to the Nevada State Engineer to evaluate the impacts of the proposed exportation of 15,000 ac-ft annually from eastern Honey Lake Valley. By using assumptions, numbers, and data which are not justified by the scientific data, both models place unreasonable and, in some instances, artificial constraints on the geology and hydrogeology of the groundwater system rather than allowing the geology and hydrogeology to constrain the models. Neither model is useful as a predictive tool. However, the major problems with the two models fall into two fundamentally different classes. The USGS model exceeded the technical limitations of the model code and made large, inappropriate adjustments to the water budget to compensate for these undetected errors. The TMP model used a water budget that was not technically justified or explained and placed the spatial distribution of ground-water recharge and discharge beyond the realm of hydrogeologic reality.  

The Basin Characterization Model—A Regional Water Balance Software Package

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | March 22nd, 2021

This report documents the computer software package, Basin Characterization Model, version 8 (BCMv8)—a monthly, gridded, regional water-balance model—and provides det

This report documents the computer software package, Basin Characterization Model, version 8 (BCMv8)—a monthly, gridded, regional water-balance model—and provides detailed operational instructions and example applications. After several years of many applications and uses of a previous version, CA-BCM, published in 2014, the BCMv8 was refined to improve the accuracy of the water-balance components, particularly the recharge estimate, which is the most difficult to accurately assess. The improvement of the various water-balance components targeted the actual evapotranspiration component, which, in turn, reduced the uncertainty of the recharge estimate. The improvement of this component was enabled by the availability of a national, gridded actual-evapotranspiration product from the U.S. Geological Survey that was unique in its scope to combine remotely sensed spatial variability and ground-based long-term water-balance constraints. This dataset provided the ability to assess monthly actual evapotranspiration for 62 vegetation types and to perform regional calibration in watersheds throughout California with the objective of closing the water balance using improved estimates for each component. The refinements, including vegetation-specific evapotranspiration, enabled the development of applications that could explore various aspects of landscape disturbance, such as wildfire, forest management, or urbanization. The improvements to BCMv8 also provided the ability to assess long-term sustainability of water resources under a variety of management applications or future climate projections.

The critical role of humidity in modeling summer electricity demand across the United States

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | April 3rd, 2020

Cooling demand is projected to increase under climate change. However, most of the existing projections are based on rising air temperatures alone, ignoring that

Cooling demand is projected to increase under climate change. However, most of the existing projections are based on rising air temperatures alone, ignoring that rising temperatures are associated with increased humidity; a lethal combination that could significantly increase morbidity and mortality rates during extreme heat events. We bridge this gap by identifying the key measures of heat stress, considering both air temperature and near-surface humidity, in characterizing the climate sensitivity of electricity demand at a national scale. Here we show that in many of the high energy consuming states, such as California and Texas, projections based on air temperature alone underestimates cooling demand by as much as 10–15% under both present and future climate scenarios. Our results establish that air temperature is a necessary but not sufficient variable for adequately characterizing the climate sensitivity of cooling load, and that near-surface humidity plays an equally important role.

The Draft State Water Project Delivery Capability Report 2021

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | December 31st, 2021

The California Department of Water Resources (DWR) has authority under state law to construct, operate, and maintain the State Water Project (SWP) to manage, store and de

The California Department of Water Resources (DWR) has authority under state law to construct, operate, and maintain the State Water Project (SWP) to manage, store and deliver water for the benefit of the State. This report is intended to provide information about the key factors affecting the operation of the SWP in California, its long-term capability as a source of water for beneficial use, and an estimate of its current delivery capability. This report meets the requirements of Attachment B to the Monterey Plus Settlement Agreement of May 2003. Water provided by the SWP is a major source of the water supplies available to many SWP contractors. SWP contractors consist of 29 public entities that include cities, counties, urban water agencies, and agricultural irrigation districts. SWP contractors’ local/-regional water users have long-term contracts with the DWR for all, or a portion of their water supply needs. Thus, the delivery capability of water from the SWP system is an important component in the water supply planning of its recipients, and ultimately affects the amount of water available for beneficial use in California. The availability of these water supplies may be highly variable. A sequence of relatively wet water years1 may be followed by a varying sequence of dry or critically dry years. Having good and reliable estimates on how much water each contractor will receive each year —- whether it be a wet water year, a critical year, or somewhere in between -- gives contractors a better sense of the degree to which they may need to implement increased conservation measures, or plan for new facilities or back up sources of water to meet their needs. The geography of California and the infrastructure of water transfer from the source areas, located in the Sierra Mountain Range, to areas of demand for water, makes the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta a key feature of the SWP’s ability to deliver water to its agricultural and urban contractors in the North Bay, the South Bay, California Central Valley, and Southern California. All but five of the 29 SWP contractors receive water deliveries by diversions from the Delta. These water diversions are pumped by either the Harvey O. Banks or Barker Slough pumping plants. DWR and the United States Bureau of Reclamation (USBR), the managing entities of the two statewide systems of water transfer in California, face numerous challenges in the operation of their diversion facilities in the Delta, and are regulated by several state and federal agencies to maintain, and enhance the Delta’s long-term sustainability. Maintaining suitable quality of water flowing in the channels of the Delta for the numerous in-basin beneficial uses, and the protection of endangered and threatened fish species are important factors of concern for the operators of the Delta export diversion facilities. Ongoing regulatory restrictions, such as those aimed at protecting the estuary’s resident and migratory fish species, are major challenges to a reliable and sustainable water delivery capability of both, SWP and the Central Valley Project (CVP) systems. Complications induced by climate change also pose the threat of increased variability in the frequency and magnitude of floods and droughts. The projected sea level rise caused by the increase in average temperature complicate efforts to manage salinity levels in the channels affected by tides. Additionally, higher ocean levels could result in more frequent water quality degradation in the Delta channels requiring additional Delta outflow to maintain water quality objectives. The 2021 Final Main Report (released at the end of March 2022) may include further information on climate change. Previously, the climate change scenario results were only discussed and presented in the Technical Addendum which is not published during the draft phase of the Delivery Capability Report (DCR). Other challenges include continued subsidence of Delta islands, many of which are already below sea level and supported by relatively unstable levee systems. Thus, the threat of a catastrophic levee failure becomes more significant as water pressure increases against the already fragile levees. The analyses in this report factor in all the current regulations governing SWP and CVP operations in the Delta and assumptions about water uses upstream in the Sacramento River and San Joaquin River watersheds. Analyses were conducted that determined the amounts of water that SWP contractors receive and the amounts of water they choose to hold for use in a subsequent year. SWP Delta exports have decreased since 2005, although the bulk of the change occurred between 2005 and 2009 and in 2019. The former reduction is due to the Delta regulations which constrained exports that culminated in the federal Biological Opinions (BiOps) which went into effect in 2008-2009. These BiOps restricted operations of the CVP and SWP diversion pumps. The later reduction is due to two main factors: 1) the amended Coordinated Operation Agreement (COA) with accompanying project operation changes which reduced SWP exports and increased CVP exports, and (2) a more conservative operation of Lake Oroville by the SWP. Many of the same assumptions on SWP operations described in the 2019 Report remains the same in this update for 2021, however, there were a few notable changes. These include the transition from CalSim II to CalSim 3 and CVP and SWP operational refinements. As a result, the differences between the 2019 and 2021 Reports can be attributed primarily to differences in hydrology, spatial and temporal expansion, more explicit groundwater and surface water interaction representation, and operational refinements. The most salient findings in this report are: Under existing conditions, the estimated average annual delivery of Table A water for this 2021 Report is 2,309 thousand acre-feet (TAF)/year, 105 TAF less than the 2,414 TAF/year estimated for the 2019 Report (Table 5-2). The likelihood of existing condition SWP Article 21 deliveries (supplemental deliveries to Table A water) being greater than 20 TAF/year has decreased by 20% relative to the likelihood presented in the 2019 Report (Figure 5-7).

The economic value of local water supplies in Los Angeles

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | May 21st, 2018

Los Angeles imports water over long distances to supplement local supplies. Reduced reliability of the available imports is driving many local agencies to promote conserv

Los Angeles imports water over long distances to supplement local supplies. Reduced reliability of the available imports is driving many local agencies to promote conservation and enhance local water sources. These include stormwater capture, water reuse and groundwater. But financial considerations are often a significant impediment to project development, especially when comparing new and existing sources. Here we demonstrate a comprehensive approach for evaluating the economic implications of shifting to local water reliance in Los Angeles County. We show that local water supplies are economically competitive. Results from integrated hydroeconomic modelling of urban water in Los Angeles identify cost-effective water supply portfolios and conservation targets. Considering costs across the ‘full-cycles’ of urban water supply that span agency boundaries yields better comparisons of planning alternatives. Throughout the region, many water retailers could successfully mitigate effects of imported water cuts while still supporting drought-tolerant landscapes, but some would suffer due to over-reliance on imports. Updating economic assessment methods would support needed innovations to achieve local reliance in Los Angeles, including infrastructure investments, institutional reforms, many more drought-tolerant landscapes and reallocated groundwater rights.

The effects of aquatic area abundance, buffer, and hydrology on depressional wetland condition based on CRAM

San Francisco Estuary Institute (SFEI) | April 1st, 2016