Large contribution from anthropogenic warming to an emerging North American megadrought

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | April 17th, 2020

Severe and persistent 21st-century drought in southwestern North America (SWNA) motivates comparisons to medieval megadroughts and questions about the role of anthropogen

Severe and persistent 21st-century drought in southwestern North America (SWNA) motivates comparisons to medieval megadroughts and questions about the role of anthropogenic climate change. We use hydrological modeling and new 1200-year tree-ring reconstructions of summer soil moisture to demonstrate that the 2000–2018 SWNA drought was the second driest 19-year period since 800 CE, exceeded only by a late-1500s megadrought. The megadrought-like trajectory of 2000–2018 soil moisture was driven by natural variability superimposed on drying due to anthropogenic warming. Anthropogenic trends in temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation estimated from 31 climate models account for 47% (model interquartiles of 35 to 105%) of the 2000–2018 drought severity, pushing an otherwise moderate drought onto a trajectory comparable to the worst SWNA megadroughts since 800 CE.

Large-Scale Environments of Successive Atmospheric River Events Leading to Compound Precipitation Extremes in California

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | February 18th, 2022

Successive atmospheric river (AR) events—known as AR families—can result in prolonged and elevated hydrological impacts relative to single ARs due to the lack of reco

Successive atmospheric river (AR) events—known as AR families—can result in prolonged and elevated hydrological impacts relative to single ARs due to the lack of recovery time between periods of precipitation. Despite the outsized societal impacts that often stem from AR families, the large-scale environments and mechanisms associated with these compound events remain poorly understood. In this work, a new reanalysis-based 39-yr catalog of 248 AR family events affecting California between 1981 and 2019 is introduced. Nearly all (94%) of the interannual variability in AR frequency is driven by AR family versus single events. Using k-means clustering on the 500-hPa geopotential height field, six distinct clusters of large-scale patterns associated with AR families are identified. Two clusters are of particular interest due to their strong relationship with phases of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). One of these clusters is characterized by a strong ridge in the Bering Sea and Rossby wave propagation, most frequently occurs during La Niña and neutral ENSO years, and is associated with the highest cluster-average precipitation across California. The other cluster, characterized by a zonal elongation of lower geopotential heights across the Pacific basin and an extended North Pacific jet, most frequently occurs during El Niño years and is associated with lower cluster-average precipitation across California but with a longer duration. In contrast, single AR events do not show obvious clustering of spatial patterns. This difference suggests that the potential predictability of AR families may be enhanced relative to single AR events, especially on subseasonal to seasonal time scales.

Laudato si - Encyclical letter of the Holy Father Francis on Care for our Common Home*

Holy See | May 24th, 2015

*Also commonly known as the Pope's encyclical on climate change. 1. “Laudato si’, mi’ Signore” – “Praise be to you, my Lord”. In the words of this

*Also commonly known as the Pope's encyclical on climate change. 1. “Laudato si’, mi’ Signore” – “Praise be to you, my Lord”. In the words of this beautiful canticle, Saint Francis of Assisi reminds us that our common home is like a sister with whom we share our life and a beautiful mother who opens her arms to embrace us. “Praise be to you, my Lord, through our Sister, Mother Earth, who sustains and governs us, and who produces vari-ous fruit with coloured flowers and herbs”. 2. This sister now cries out to us because ofthe harm we have inflicted on her by our irre- sponsible use and abuse of the goods with which God has endowed her. We have come to see ourselves as her lords and masters, entitled to plunder her at will.

Law and Policies that Address Equitable, Climate-Resilient Water and Sanitation (Part 2)

Pacific Institute | October 21st, 2024

In the United States, federal, tribal, state, and local laws and policies exist to govern the provision of water and sanitation services to communities and homes. The law

In the United States, federal, tribal, state, and local laws and policies exist to govern the provision of water and sanitation services to communities and homes. The laws are designed to ensure the protection of public health and the environment; deliver sufficient, safe water for drinking, bathing, cooking, and other household needs; and remove and treat domestic (i.e., household) waste. People without complete plumbing or safe water live within the “water access gap.” As explored in the first report in this series, climate change—from extreme temperatures to droughts, floods, extreme storms, and wildfires—is making it hard to close this gap and keep it from growing. Water and sanitation systems in frontline communities already feel the disproportionate “first and worst” impacts of climate change to these systems and to their access to water and sanitation. Laws and policies should help anticipate and plan for the incremental and catastrophic impacts of climate change and protect those most harmed by the effects. Unfortunately, in most cases, the climate is changing faster than the law can respond, thereby leaving frontline communities’ water and sanitation systems vulnerable to damage or destruction. (Click here for Part 1)

Letter to State Water Board re: Flow Criteria that use Percent of Unimpaired Flow

Delta Stewardship Council (Delta Council) | May 22nd, 2012

The proposed use of percent of unimpaired flow is a step toward improving the outlook for fish and other wildlife utilizing the San Joaquin River and its tributaries. Fal

The proposed use of percent of unimpaired flow is a step toward improving the outlook for fish and other wildlife utilizing the San Joaquin River and its tributaries. Fall-run Chinook salmon are likely to benefit from February-through-June flows that are more natural in timing and variability than current flows. Compared with the existing maze of flow standards for the San Joaquin River and its tributaries, unimpaired flow comes closer to approximating natural flow, and it does so more transparently. Caveats include: (1) flow is but one of many stressors affecting fish and wildlife; (2) the choice of flow criteria and metrics needs to serve the broader needs of ecosystems as well as individual species; (3) a chosen percentage of unimpaired flow may fall short of the minimum needed by fish and wildlife in some years; and (4) such critical years are likely to become more common as Sierra Nevada snowpacks diminish as a consequence of climate change. This qualified endorsement is based on our reading of the “Technical Report on the Scientific Basis for Alternative San Joaquin River Flow and Southern Delta Salinity Objectives” (State Water Resources Control Board, February 2012).

Levee Decisions and Sustainability for the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta

University of California, Davis (UC Davis) | August 15th, 2010

Leveraging Wetlands for a Better Climate Future

San Francisco Estuary Institute (SFEI) | July 15th, 2022

Managing Natural and Working Lands (NWL) to enhance carbon sinks and limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is a key component of California’s ambitious strategy to achie

Managing Natural and Working Lands (NWL) to enhance carbon sinks and limit greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is a key component of California’s ambitious strategy to achieve net carbon neutrality by 2045. The California Air Resources Board (CARB) Climate Change Scoping Plan includes 7 NWL categories in its GHG emission reduction scenarios, one of which is wetlands. Coastal wetlands in California are a high- leverage NWL type for GHG management relative to their small spatial footprint. These ecosystems have high rates of carbon sequestration and can accumulate large stocks of carbon, due to high productivity, efficient sediment trapping, and low decomposition rates (Chmura et al. 2003, Mcleod et al. 2011). In the absence of management interventions focused on wetland conservation, however, conversion of coastal wetlands to other land uses such as agriculture, grazing, development, impounded wetlands, or subtidal or upland habitat can halt or reverse carbon sequestration, and can shift these ecosystems from long-term GHG sinks to large GHG sources (Hatala et al. 2012, Tan et al. 2019). Filling of wetlands for infrastructure and development was a common practice throughout the early 20th century (Goals Project 1999), dramatically reducing the state’s coastal wetland area and associated carbon sink.

Limiting fossil fuel production as the next big step in climate policy

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | November 26th, 2018

Despite the current ambivalence of the United States towards the Paris Agreement, national and local jurisdictions across the globe remain committed, and they are seeking

Despite the current ambivalence of the United States towards the Paris Agreement, national and local jurisdictions across the globe remain committed, and they are seeking ways to increase the ambition and effectiveness of their climate policies. One way forwards could be limiting the production — not just the consumption — of coal, gas and oil. Here we describe the rationale for, and CO2 emissions implications of, limiting oil production. Seven countries have recently imposed such limits, and we develop a case study for a potential addition to this group, the US state of California. We find that by ceasing the issuance of permits for new oil wells, California could reduce global CO2 emissions substantially and also enhance environmental justice in the state.

Linked fire activity and climate whiplash in California during the early Holocene

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | November 23rd, 2022

Recent wildfire activity in semi-arid regions like western North America exceeds the range of historical records. High-resolution paleoclimate archives such as stalagmi

Recent wildfire activity in semi-arid regions like western North America exceeds the range of historical records. High-resolution paleoclimate archives such as stalagmites could illuminate the link between hydroclimate, vegetation change, and fire activity in pre-anthropogenic climate states beyond the timescale of existing tree-ring records. Here we present an analysis of levoglucosan, a combustion-sensitive anhydrosugar, and lignin oxidation products (LOPs) in a stalagmite, reconstructing fire activity and vegetation composition in the California Coast Range across the 8.2 kyr event. Elevated levoglucosan concentrations suggest increased fire activity while altered LOP compositions indicate a shift toward more woody vegetation during the event. These changes are concurrent with increased hydroclimate volatility as shown by carbon and calcium isotope proxies. Together, these records suggest that climate whiplash (oscillations between extreme wetness and aridity) and fire activity in California, both projected to increase with anthropogenic climate change, were tightly coupled during the early Holocene.

Little Ice Age flood events recorded in sag pond sediments in the Carrizo Plains National Monument, California

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | March 8th, 2024

In California, severe precipitation events (SPEs) are often associated with winter season atmospheric rivers. These SPEs can generate hurricane-scale precipitation, creat

In California, severe precipitation events (SPEs) are often associated with winter season atmospheric rivers. These SPEs can generate hurricane-scale precipitation, creating a variety of natural hazards such as floods and landslides. For California, the most complete SPE-flood record yet generated is a 9000-year paleoflood reconstruction from the Santa Barbara Basin (Du et al. in Mar Geol 397:29–42, 2018). Finding terrestrial counterparts to compare to the Santa Barbara Basin is a challenge in Southern California where lake basins are rare and the terrestrial spatiotemporal signature of SPE floods remains largely unconstrained. Here, we present five 1–2 m sediment cores from a sag pond along the San Andreas Fault in the southern Carrizo Plain. The most complete record (core CLPC21-4) was selected for a variety of chronological, sedimentological, and biological analyses. Principal Component Analysis on these data reveals two end member sediment unit types: event versus ambient sedimentation. We focus on the two thickest sediment units likely generated by SPEs. These two units (EU 1 and EU 2) are especially distinct within CLPC21-4, characterized by erosive bases, above average sand content, normal grading, low magnetic susceptibility, and low total organic matter. Moreover, they are visually apparent across all five cores within the sag pond and thin from source to sink. Age control for the two units is constrained by AMS 14C dates on discrete organic materials and supported by the identification of Erodium’s first appearance ca. 1750–1765 CE in the Santa Barbara region. Using these age constraints, we infer the maximum limiting age range for Event Unit 1 from 1470 to 1640 CE and Event Unit 2 from 1740 to 1800 CE. Within the limits of dating, site-specific proxy sensitivities, and inherent meteorological heterogeneity, we propose a probable correlation to Santa Barbara Basin flood events at 1525 CE and 1760 CE. Our results suggest that sag ponds may represent a viable and untapped paleoclimatic archive for California. Future work will focus on a latitudinal series of sag ponds to determine the spatiotemporal sequence and correlativity of SPEs in the sediment record.