Linked fire activity and climate whiplash in California during the early Holocene

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | November 23rd, 2022

Recent wildfire activity in semi-arid regions like western North America exceeds the range of historical records. High-resolution paleoclimate archives such as stalagmi

Recent wildfire activity in semi-arid regions like western North America exceeds the range of historical records. High-resolution paleoclimate archives such as stalagmites could illuminate the link between hydroclimate, vegetation change, and fire activity in pre-anthropogenic climate states beyond the timescale of existing tree-ring records. Here we present an analysis of levoglucosan, a combustion-sensitive anhydrosugar, and lignin oxidation products (LOPs) in a stalagmite, reconstructing fire activity and vegetation composition in the California Coast Range across the 8.2 kyr event. Elevated levoglucosan concentrations suggest increased fire activity while altered LOP compositions indicate a shift toward more woody vegetation during the event. These changes are concurrent with increased hydroclimate volatility as shown by carbon and calcium isotope proxies. Together, these records suggest that climate whiplash (oscillations between extreme wetness and aridity) and fire activity in California, both projected to increase with anthropogenic climate change, were tightly coupled during the early Holocene.

Little Ice Age flood events recorded in sag pond sediments in the Carrizo Plains National Monument, California

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | March 8th, 2024

In California, severe precipitation events (SPEs) are often associated with winter season atmospheric rivers. These SPEs can generate hurricane-scale precipitation, creat

In California, severe precipitation events (SPEs) are often associated with winter season atmospheric rivers. These SPEs can generate hurricane-scale precipitation, creating a variety of natural hazards such as floods and landslides. For California, the most complete SPE-flood record yet generated is a 9000-year paleoflood reconstruction from the Santa Barbara Basin (Du et al. in Mar Geol 397:29–42, 2018). Finding terrestrial counterparts to compare to the Santa Barbara Basin is a challenge in Southern California where lake basins are rare and the terrestrial spatiotemporal signature of SPE floods remains largely unconstrained. Here, we present five 1–2 m sediment cores from a sag pond along the San Andreas Fault in the southern Carrizo Plain. The most complete record (core CLPC21-4) was selected for a variety of chronological, sedimentological, and biological analyses. Principal Component Analysis on these data reveals two end member sediment unit types: event versus ambient sedimentation. We focus on the two thickest sediment units likely generated by SPEs. These two units (EU 1 and EU 2) are especially distinct within CLPC21-4, characterized by erosive bases, above average sand content, normal grading, low magnetic susceptibility, and low total organic matter. Moreover, they are visually apparent across all five cores within the sag pond and thin from source to sink. Age control for the two units is constrained by AMS 14C dates on discrete organic materials and supported by the identification of Erodium’s first appearance ca. 1750–1765 CE in the Santa Barbara region. Using these age constraints, we infer the maximum limiting age range for Event Unit 1 from 1470 to 1640 CE and Event Unit 2 from 1740 to 1800 CE. Within the limits of dating, site-specific proxy sensitivities, and inherent meteorological heterogeneity, we propose a probable correlation to Santa Barbara Basin flood events at 1525 CE and 1760 CE. Our results suggest that sag ponds may represent a viable and untapped paleoclimatic archive for California. Future work will focus on a latitudinal series of sag ponds to determine the spatiotemporal sequence and correlativity of SPEs in the sediment record.

Local and synoptic mechanisms causing Southern California’s Santa Ana winds

Climate Dynamics (Springer) | August 25th, 2009

The cool, moist fall and winter climate in Southern Cali- fornia is often disrupted by dry, hot days with strong winds blowing out of the desert. These ‘‘Santa Ana’

The cool, moist fall and winter climate in Southern Cali- fornia is often disrupted by dry, hot days with strong winds blowing out of the desert. These ‘‘Santa Ana’’ winds are a dominant feature of the fall and wintertime climate of Southern California (Conil and Hall 2006), and have important human and ecological impacts. First, and most pronounced, is their effect on wildfires: following the hot, dry summer, the extremely low relative humidities and gusty strong winds that occur during Santa Anas introduce extreme fire risk which often culminates in wildfires with large economic loss.

Long-Term Operations of the Central Valley Project and State Water Project Draft Environmental Impact Statement

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) | July 26th, 2024

The Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) prepared this Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) for the 2021 Endangered Species Act Reinitiation of Section 7 Consultation on t

The Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) prepared this Environmental Impact Statement (EIS) for the 2021 Endangered Species Act Reinitiation of Section 7 Consultation on the Long-Term Operation of the Central Valley Project (CVP) and State Water Project (SWP). This EIS is meant to inform the public and decision-makers on potential federal actions by examining a range of reasonable alternatives and the potential effect on the environment. Reclamation manages the Central Valley Project (CVP). The California Department of Water Resources (DWR) manages the State Water Project (SWP). Collectively, the operation of the CVP and SWP provides flood control and navigation, delivers water to 30 million people, supports 4 million acres of agriculture, maintains 19 wildlife refuges on the Pacific Flyway, protects numerous iconic and endemic species such as Chinook salmon, coho salmon, steelhead, sturgeon, and smelt, generates 4.5 million megawatt hours of electricity, maintains water quality for beneficial uses in the California Bay-Delta, and supports recreation throughout Northern California. This summary provides a succinct overview of the development of alternatives in coordination with other agencies and the public, major conclusions for key environmental resource areas, the identification of avoidance and mitigation measures to address potential impacts, and issues that have been in dispute as raised by the public and other interested parties. This summary provides the material required by the Council on Environmental Quality’s National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) Implementing Regulations regarding the contents of an EIS summary. Click here to read Maven's Notebook background article to the new DEIS.

Los Angeles Basin Stormwater Conservation Study: Task 3.1 Climate Change and Hydrologic Projections Appendices

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) | October 1st, 2013

Reclamation’s Technical Service Center (TSC) performed Task 3.1 of the LA Basin Study—to develop and evaluate projected future climate conditions related to precipita

Reclamation’s Technical Service Center (TSC) performed Task 3.1 of the LA Basin Study—to develop and evaluate projected future climate conditions related to precipitation frequency over the Los Angeles Basin. The subtasks were to: Consider existing projections of climate change in the LA Basin Study area Determine appropriate climate scenarios for use in developing precipitation and potential evaporation input datasets to support subsequent hydrologic modeling Prepare data (hourly precipitation and potential evaporation) for input into the LACFCD’s Watershed Management Modeling System (WMMS) Determine storm event frequency for planning purposes The data, methods, and results from Task 3.1 are documented in this report. Results from these four subtasks were then transmitted to LACFCD, who used these results as input in their WWMMS as part of Task 3.2 of the LA Basin Study. LACFCD is preparing a companion report with the results from the hydrologic modeling.

Los Angeles Basin Stormwater Conservation Study: Task 3.2 Hydrologic Modeling Report

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) | December 3rd, 2013

The Los Angeles County Flood Control District (LACFCD) partnered with the U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) to collaborate on t

The Los Angeles County Flood Control District (LACFCD) partnered with the U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) to collaborate on the Los Angeles Basin Stormwater Conservation Study (LA Basin Study). The purpose of the LA Basin Study is to investigate long-range water conservation and flood control impacts caused by projected changes in climate conditions and population in the Los Angeles region. The LA Basin Study will recommend potential modifications or changes in the operation of the existing stormwater capture systems, and the development of new facilities that could help resolve future water supply and flood control issues. These recommendations will be developed by identifying alternatives and conducting trade-off analyses. For Task 3, Downscaled Climate Change and Hydrologic Modeling of the LA Basin Study, Reclamation developed downscaled climate change projections, while LACFCD applied these projections to generate the future hydrology. LACFCD utilized the Watershed Management Modeling System (WMMS) to perform the hydrologic modeling for the LA Basin Study. This report summarizes the data, methods, and results of the historic and future hydrologic modeling. The purpose of Task 3.2, Hydrologic Modeling is to simulate hydrology with respect to climate change for the Los Angeles River, San Gabriel River, Ballona Creek, South Santa Monica Bay, North Santa Monica Bay, Malibu Creek, and Dominguez Channel/Los Angeles Harbor watersheds (Basin Study Watersheds). This study incorporates the entire watershed boundaries, including where they extend outside of Los Angeles County. The following sub-tasks were identified to achieve this objective: Historic Hydrologic Modeling (Water Year 1987 through 2000) Determine baseline scenario modeling assumptions Prepare WMMS to simulate baseline scenario Perform WMMS baseline simulations Analyze and summarize WMMS results Projected Hydrologic Modeling (Water Year 2012 through 2095) Determine future scenario modeling assumptions Prepare WMMS to simulate future scenarios Perform WMMS simulations Analyze and summarize WMMS results

Los Angeles Basin Stormwater Conservation Study: Task 4 Existing Infrastructure Response & Operations Guidelines Analysis

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) | September 1st, 2014

The Los Angeles County Flood Control District (LACFCD) partnered with the U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) to collaborate on the Los A

The Los Angeles County Flood Control District (LACFCD) partnered with the U.S. Department of the Interior, Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation) to collaborate on the Los Angeles Basin Stormwater Conservation Study (LA Basin Study). The purpose of the LA Basin Study is to investigate long-range water conservation and flood risk impacts caused by projected changes in climate conditions and population in the Los Angeles region. The LA Basin Study will recommend potential modifications or changes in the operation of the existing stormwater capture systems as well as the development of new facilities that could help resolve future water supply and flood risk issues. These recommendations will be developed by identifying alternatives and conducting trade-off analyses.  For Task 4, Existing Infrastructure Response and Operations Guidelines Analysis of the LA Basin Study, Reclamation, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), and the LACFCD jointly analyzed the major components of the water conservation and flood risk mitigation system. For the analysis, Reclamation assessed the 14 major LACFCD dams and reservoirs, USACE analyzed their 4 major flood control dams in the region, and LACFCD assessed the 26 major spreading grounds interconnected to the water conservation system. The LACFCD also evaluated 5 major channel outlets. This report summarizes the data, methods, and results of the existing infrastructure response to the historic climate and future projections.  The purpose of Task 4 is to assess the response of existing infrastructure and analyze the operation guidelines under both the current and future climate conditions. It is important to recognize that this effort relies upon the existing configuration of the water conservation and flood risk mitigation network as the baseline condition.  This evaluation includes a ranking assessment of the current and future stormwater volumes conserved or discharged, and other impacts to the water conservation and flood risk mitigation system. The following sub-tasks were identified to conduct this assessment:  Response to Current Climate (Water Year 1987 through 2000)  Analyze stormwater volumes conserved or discharged Analyze infrastructure response and operations guidelines  Response to Future Climate (Water Year 2012 through 2095) Analyze stormwater volumes conserved or discharged Analyze infrastructure response and operations guidelines The response to the current climate provided a representation of the existing situation and revealed how the existing infrastructure could reasonably be expected to perform under a historical climate to which the region has become accustomed. However, this may not be the case in the future. The response to future climate assessed the existing infrastructure under varying climate conditions to understand if it would function satisfactorily. This analysis of the existing infrastructure served as a status quo assessment of historical conditions as well as a “no action” evaluation of the future.  After the analysis of the historic and future climate conditions, an assessment was conducted for the system of dams and spreading ground facilities. A water conservation ranking—or performance level—was developed to assess the overall efficiency and resilience of the facilities to both the historic and projected future climate. Although results are assigned to the individual 18 dams/reservoirs and 26 spreading grounds, each facility was analyzed within the entire system. The dams and spreading grounds were ranked according to their performance with respect to one another; these rankings were used to develop the Task 4 performance levels.  Generally, facilities that were the least efficient resulted in being the least resilient to climate change and were assigned Performance Level III which has a high potential for enhancements. Facilities that were generally more efficient were more resilient to climate change and were assigned Performance Level II. Finally, facilities that were the most efficient tended to be the most resilient to climate change and were assigned to Performance Level I.  For the channel outlet analysis, assessment levels were developed to determine which of the five major channel outlets have the highest potential for increasing stormwater capture and reducing runoff to the Pacific Ocean. The ability to reduce the stormwater runoff that is lost to the ocean and capture it would greatly boost the potential stormwater supply in this region. The Task 4 analysis assigned assessment levels to the 5 major channel outlets and their respective watersheds.  The Los Angeles River ranked into Assessment Level III indicating that this watershed has the greatest potential for increasing stormwater supplies and should be targeted for future enhancements. For the remaining outlets, although these locations were found to have lower discharge volumes, additional capture efforts should still be targeted within these watersheds to further increase stormwater capture and improve local water supplies. 

Los Angeles Basin Study Summary Report

U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (USBR) | November 1st, 2016

Changing demographics, climate change, and competing interests for available water supplies all present long-term risks to the stability and reliability of the region’s

Changing demographics, climate change, and competing interests for available water supplies all present long-term risks to the stability and reliability of the region’s imported water.  The region recognizes that today’s challenges require an integrated water resources management approach. For decades, this region has operated and maintained one of the most effective flood control systems in the world that protects millions of people from the impacts of flooding in the region. This system sends much of the stormwater runoff into the ocean, water that historically recharged local groundwater basins, making this region even more dependent on imported water supplies. As regulatory pressure to clean up polluted stormwater runoff continues and imported water resources diminish, this local source of water supply is becoming more and more attractive (GLAC IRWMP 2014). Many of the region’s water management agencies have studied and planned for increasing use of local recycled and graywater supplies, ocean and brackish desalination, developing more groundwater, and implementing improved water conservation initiatives to extend existing supplies. Additionally, social trends and concerns also drive the emphasis on the use of local water supplies. However, the one major local resource that has not been studied in-depth is stormwater and its opportunities to optimize the reliability of local supplies. To enhance the capabilities of the existing stormwater conservation infrastructure within the Los Angeles Basin, the LACFCD began to investigate long-term projected needs and future climate conditions within the region. Given that local groundwater plays such a vital role in the region’s water supply portfolio, detailed scientific, engineering, and economic analyses were conducted to identify strategies for enhancing stormwater capture for groundwater recharge. The LA Basin Study examined the region’s water supplies and demand, and impacts from projected population growth and changing climate in the watersheds of the Los Angeles region. The objectives of the study were to: • Use state-of-the-art climate change analysis to develop projections of future water supply and demands in the Basin. • Analyze how the Basin’s existing water infrastructure and its operations will perform in the face of changing water realities. • Develop and highlight opportunities to adapt to current and future water demands. • Conduct a trade-off analysis of identified opportunities. Concepts ranged from enhancing the existing stormwater capture system and modifying existing facilities (including those capturing runoff for groundwater recharge), to developing new structural and nonstructural concepts that could help resolve future water supply and flood risk issues. This Summary Report presents highlights of the critical tasks associated with this Basin Study and the results and findings produced throughout this collaborative study effort. Full study chapters and appendices: Plan of Study Fact Sheet Task 2: Water Supply and Demand Task 3: Climate Change Analysis Task 3.1: Development of Climate-Adjusted Hydrologic Model Inputs Task 3.1:  Climate Change and Hydrologic Projections Appendices Task 3.2:  Hydrologic Modeling Report Task 3.2: Annual Hydrologic Results Workbook Task 4: Existing Infrastructure Response & Operations Guidelines Analysis Final Report Task 5: Task 5 - Infrastructure & Operations Concept Analysis Final Report Task 6: Trade-off Analysis Final Report Click here for Reclamation's full index  including public outreach and webinars

Los Angeles County’s Climate Cost Challenge

Center for Climate Integrity | April 2nd, 2024

Within the first two months of 2024, the City of Los Angeles had already exceeded its average annual rainfall, receiving nearly 15 inches of rain in back-to-back deluges.

Within the first two months of 2024, the City of Los Angeles had already exceeded its average annual rainfall, receiving nearly 15 inches of rain in back-to-back deluges.1 The storms flooded roads, brought massive wind gusts, ripped down trees, and killed nine people.2 The year prior was the hottest year ever recorded, including unseasonably hot weather into the fall months in Southern California. In October 2023, a wildfire ripped through rural lands southeast of the City of Los Angeles, destroying multiple buildings and forcing approximately 4,000 people to evacuate. With climate-driven disasters in Southern California growing more intense every year, it’s more important than ever for communities to invest in a growing range of climate adaptation and resilience projects. This study is the first-ever attempt to calculate the costs of preparing for and adapting to 14 different climate impacts on municipal, county, state, and federal governments in Los Angeles County.

Management of the Colorado River: Water Allocations, Drought, and the Federal Role

Congressional Research Service (CRS) | August 4th, 2022