Evaluation of the Subseasonal Forecast Skill of Floods Associated with Atmospheric Rivers in Coastal Western U.S. Watersheds

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | May 27th, 2021

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are responsible for up to 90% of major flood events along the U.S. West Coast. The time scale of subseasonal forecasting (from 2 weeks to 1 month

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are responsible for up to 90% of major flood events along the U.S. West Coast. The time scale of subseasonal forecasting (from 2 weeks to 1 month) is a critical lead time for proactive mitigation of flood disasters. The NOAA Climate Testbed Subseasonal Experiment (SubX) is a research-to-operations project with almost immediate availability of forecasts. It has produced a reforecast database that facilitates evaluation of flood forecasts at these subseasonal lead times. Here, we examine the SubX-driven forecast skill of AR-related flooding out to 4-week lead using the Distributed Hydrology Soil Vegetation Model (DHSVM), with particular attention to the role of antecedent soil moisture (ASM), which modulates the relationship between meteorological and hydrological forecast skill. We study three watersheds along a transect of the U.S. West Coast: the Chehalis River basin in Washington, the Russian River basin in Northern California, and the Santa Margarita River basin in Southern California. We find that the SubX-driven flood forecast skill drops quickly after week 1, during which there is relatively high deterministic forecast skill. We find some probabilistic forecast skill relative to climatology as well as ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) in week 2, but minimal skill in weeks 3–4, especially for annual maximum floods, notwithstanding some probabilistic skill for smaller floods in week 3. Using ESP and reverse-ESP experiments to consider the relative influence of ASM and SubX reforecast skill, we find that ASM dominates probabilistic forecast skill only for small flood events at week 1, while SubX reforecast skill dominates for large flood events at all lead times.

Evidence of Landlocked Chinook Salmon Populations in California

North American Journal of Fisheries Management (Taylor & Francis) | November 10th, 2015

Natural reproduction of adfluvial Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha has been documented in their native and introduced range but not in California, the southern end

Natural reproduction of adfluvial Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha has been documented in their native and introduced range but not in California, the southern end of their native range. A combination of anecdotal evidence and survey data suggests that successful spawning by Chinook Salmon reared in California reservoirs could be common. The planted juveniles are often from different basins and are genetically distinguishable from local salmon populations below reservoirs. Consequently, the possibility of behavioral and genetic interactions may lead to complications of restoration efforts via trap and haul programs. The full extent of this phenomenon needs to be documented before trap and haul programs are initiated to reintroduce salmon above reservoirs.

Examining the Contribution of the Observed Global Warming Trend to the California Droughts of 2012/13 and 2013/14

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | September 30th, 2014

In this study, we examine the November–February California droughts of 2012/13 and 2013/14. During 2013/14, California had its warmest and third driest rainy se

In this study, we examine the November–February California droughts of 2012/13 and 2013/14. During 2013/14, California had its warmest and third driest rainy season on record (1895–2014), while the 2012/13 season registered as the 45th warmest and 38th driest (Vose et al. 2014). The 2013 January–December calendar year was the driest on record (Water CA 2014). These consecutive below-normal seasons conspired with warm temperatures to reduce California’s snowpack to the second lowest level since 1960, when recording began, with snowpack at 24% of normal (Water CA 2014). Between January 2013 and January 2014, satellite observations documented dramatic snowpack-related land cover change (NASA Earth Observatory 2014): in 2014, the Cascade, Sierra Nevada, and Coastal ranges were almost completely devoid of snow. In February and March of 2014, air temperatures were extremely warm (NOAA NCDC 2014; HPRC 2014), and U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) observations indicated extreme or moderate hydrologic drought (USGS 2014) and high levels of vegetation stress (VegDRI 2014). The state declared a drought emergency (NIDIS 2014). While it is too soon to assess the full impact of the 2012/13 and 2013/14 California droughts, they seem likely to substantially impact the state’s ability to generate hydrologic power, support agriculture, reduce the risk of forest and bush fires, and protect fragile ecosystems (Huffington Post 2014). *Chapter 4, Explaining Extreme Events of 2013 from a Climate Perspective, Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 95 (9)

Executive Order N-10-19

State of California | April 29th, 2019

Executive Order N-7-23

State of California | May 17th, 2023

Exit here: Strategies for dealing with aging dams and reservoirs

Aquatic Sciences (Springer) | October 22nd, 2019

Aging infrastructure is prevalent throughout the world, but water control management structures, specifically dams, are of growing concern. Dams and their corresponding r

Aging infrastructure is prevalent throughout the world, but water control management structures, specifically dams, are of growing concern. Dams and their corresponding reservoirs have inherent, but separate, lifespans. The proportion of dams around the world that continue operation beyond their intended lifespans is growing at an alarming rate. Society will not only have to navigate the tradeoffs associated with the deterioration of services provided by reservoirs and dams, but also impending structural failures. Society is nearing a critical pinch point where we will have to decide how to deal with dams and reservoirs at scales that range from a single system to multiple systems in large watersheds. No comprehensive strategy exists to inform both the range of actions that can be applied to such infrastructure and how such actions would influence biophysical, socioeconomic, and geopolitical tradeoffs. The development of proactive exit strategies is a critical first step in ensuring controlled transitions for aging dams and reservoirs. Herein, we present an overview of actions and considerations for aging dams and reservoirs, followed by an initial framework for exit strategy development to launch a further discussion on how society could deal with this aging infrastructure.

Exploration of Tolerable Risk Guidelines for the USACE Levee Safety Program

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) | January 10th, 2011

Risk assessment methodologies have been used around the world to provide decision makers with information on the likelihood of adverse outcomes and resulting consequences

Risk assessment methodologies have been used around the world to provide decision makers with information on the likelihood of adverse outcomes and resulting consequences. Governments are recently moving to broader flood risk management approaches that encompass structural measures and manage floodplain development while recognizing climate change, environmental functions and social factors. Such flood risk approaches consider the probability of a flood hazard occurring; the vulnerability of flood mitigation measures implemented to lessen flood consequences through preparation, response, recovery and mitigation; and the consequences that result from the mitigated flood event. Within that overarching flood risk management context, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) is considering risk management approaches for dams and levee systems in order to make better decisions, better prioritize and justify risk reduction measures, better communicate risks to decision makers and the public, and better understand and evaluate public safety risks in an environment of shared flood risk management responsibilities. USACE consideration of risk management approaches includes the potential use of a Tolerability of Risk (TOR) framework, originally developed in the United Kingdom and adapted elsewhere, as well as Tolerable Risk Guidelines (TRG). Tolerability of Risk was developed as a framework for reaching decisions with stakeholders that focuses on the most serious risks consistently, efficiently, and transparently. Tolerable Risk Guidelines categorize the nature of risks in ways that can assist in assessing their acceptability or non-acceptability, and in prioritizing actions for reducing risks. (Further information regarding TOR and TRG is available in the summary of Dr. Jean LeGuen’s presentation, in Section 3 of this report, and in his paper, included in Appendix D.) In March 2008, three Federal agencies - US Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), Department of Interior, Bureau of Reclamation (Reclamation), and Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) convened a workshop entitled “Workshop on Tolerable Risk Evaluation – A step towards developing tolerable risk guidelines for dams and levees”. With the formation of the USACE Levee Safety Program (USACE 2007), attention began to be directed toward adapting the newly developed risk-informed dam safety policies and methods for application to levee systems. The National Committee on Levee Safety (NCLS) authorized by the Levee Safety Act of 2007 published its draft recommendations in January 2009 (NCLS 2009) including Recommendation #5 that Tolerable Risk Guidelines (TRG) be developed for application in risk-informed, flood risk management (FRM) associated with levees. This March 2010 workshop constitutes one step in USACE engaging the flood risk management community to work collaboratively in developing policies, TRG, and methods to further levee safety for the nation. The workshop purpose was to examine the concepts and principles of tolerability of risk and tolerable risk guidelines and explore their application to, and use in, managing life, economic, and environmental risk associated with levee systems. The workshop scope encompassed national and international approaches to flood risk management, tolerability of risk, and tolerable risk guidelines as they would apply to the USACE levee safety program. The workshop was comprised of three parts: introductory plenary presentations that set a common base and vocabulary for subsequent discussions; three facilitated break-out sessions that deliberated on questions prepared in advance; and concluding panels and plenary sessions that would capture the sense of the participants in what was learned and how to proceed. Invited participants numbering about sixty were from USACE, FEMA, other Federal agencies, professional societies, NGO’s, and from The Netherlands, United Kingdom, Japan, and Spain.

Exploring the Potential for Water-Limited Agriculture in the San Joaquin Valley

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | July 21st, 2022

The rollout of California’s Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) is altering the state’s agricultural landscape. As groundwater sustainability measures are

The rollout of California’s Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) is altering the state’s agricultural landscape. As groundwater sustainability measures are implemented and water scarcity increases, at least half a million acres are projected to come out of irrigated production in the San Joaquin Valley, the state’s agricultural heartland. Rather than widespread land idling—which comes with unintended consequences such as dust, weeds, pests, and soil degradation — a switch from summer irrigated crops to winter crops produced with limited water (including winter cereals and forage crops, among others) might keep some of this land in production. Although water-limited agriculture faces large hurdles, some promising aspects warrant further exploration.

Facing the Climate Gap: How Environmental Justice Communities are Leading the Way to a More Sustainable and Equitable California

University of Southern California (USC) | October 31st, 2012

California has traditionally led the nation in protecting and preserving the environment – and we have proudly continued the trend with the 2006 passage and ong

California has traditionally led the nation in protecting and preserving the environment – and we have proudly continued the trend with the 2006 passage and ongoing implementation of the California Global Warming Solutions Act (AB 32). Aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) and slowing climate change, AB 32 came under political attack in 2010 when an initiative, funded largely by oil refiners, sought to delay application of the legislation’s rules. Fortunately, voters soundly rejected that effort, but many observers have worried that California’s concerns about climate could wane, particularly since the actual impacts of climate change can seem abstract and far-off. Against this backdrop, a wide range of community-based organizations have been working to “make it real” by connecting the dots between global warming and human impacts, and by helping residents adapt now and not later. In what might be a surprise to some observers, many of these organizations are working with low-income communities of color – those often stereotyped as the least concerned about climate change.

Farmers Water District Groundwater Sustainability Plan Delta-Mendota Subbasin

Farmers Water District | January 1st, 2020

The Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) was signed into law in 2014 for the purpose of protecting California’s groundwater resources. SGMA requires all high

The Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) was signed into law in 2014 for the purpose of protecting California’s groundwater resources. SGMA requires all high and medium priority basins to develop Groundwater Sustainability Plans (GSP) to prevent overdraft and achieve sustainability in the utilization of groundwater resources. The Delta-Mendota Subbasin (Basin 5-022.07 in the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) Bulletin 118) (Subbasin) is a high priority Subbasin that has been assigned a critical overdraft designation by DWR. The Subbasin consists of 23 Groundwater Sustainability Agencies (GSA) who together created six individual GSA groups, each preparing a GSP in a coordinated manner as required by SGMA. Farmers Water District elected to form a GSA on June 14, 2016 in order to represent the interest of local landowners in the District in the development of a GSP with FWD designated as a Management Area in GSP. This GSP includes a description of groundwater conditions and basin settings of the Subbasin that is common to all six of the GSPs developed for the Delta-Mendota Subbasin in addition to describing the hydrogeologic conditions and management practices in the area of FWD. It also contains the steps that will be taken to achieve sustainability over the next 20 years by preventing undesirable results by monitoring for the following sustainability indicators as defined by SGMA: • Chronic Lowering of Groundwater Levels • Reduction in Groundwater Storage • Degraded Water Quality • Subsidence • Depletion of Interconnected Surface Water • Seawater Intrusion All but seawater intrusion applies to FWD, and each applicable sustainability indicator will be addressed in this GSP and is integrated into the Subbasin-wide and FWD monitoring program. Measurable objectives and minimum thresholds have been set for each sustainability indicator based on projected hydrologic conditions through the use of a numerical groundwater flow model. This GSP, in coordination with the five other GSPs for the Subbasin, will be implemented and result in the sustainable use of groundwater resources for all beneficial users in FWD and the Subbasin.