Integrated Water Operations in California: Hydropower, Overdraft, and Climate Change

University of California, Davis (UC Davis) | July 16th, 2015

Several management and climate cases are evaluated with the updated CALVIN, a hydro-economic optimization model of California’s inter-tied water supply infrastructure.

Several management and climate cases are evaluated with the updated CALVIN, a hydro-economic optimization model of California’s inter-tied water supply infrastructure. Updates to the CALVIN model include new projected 2050 agricultural target demands and scarcity penalties, improvements to network-flow representation, especially agricultural, urban, and wildlife refuge demands, and extended surface and ground water hydrology, now covering an 82-year historical inflow hydrology. A new energy price scheme is applied to CALVIN, which incorporates hourly energy price variations into monthly CALVIN operations. Using one constant average price for a month underestimates hydropower revenue and overestimates pumping costs. Hourly-varying moving average prices improved representation of hydropower revenue without creating significant scarcities to agricultural and urban water users. Effects of ending long-term groundwater overdraft in the Central Valley are evaluated with several management cases using CALVIN. The cases include effects of Delta outflow and Delta exports from a “no overdraft” policy. The least cost overdraft that minimizes groundwater pumping and scarcity costs is calculated for the 82-year period. Prohibiting Delta exports result in severe water scarcities south of the Delta. Water operations are more economical when overdraft is ended with adaptations, such as more Delta exports, increased groundwater banking, and water trades, than historical operations with overdraft. Finally, climate change effects under a warmer and drier climate scenario are studied and results are compared to historical hydrology. A drier and warmer climate shifts the timing and magnitude of stream flows. Spring snowmelt decreases and winter flows increase. Modelled reduction in rim inflows averages about 28%. This warmer-drier climate increases water scarcities, but adverse effects can be diminished with water sales, higher Delta exports, more conjunctive use, and wastewater recycling. 

Inter-Basin Transfers Extend the Benefits of Water From Forests to Population Centers Across the Conterminous U.S.

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | May 12th, 2022

Clean water from forests is commonly used to supply drinking water to communities both within and outside basin boundaries through inter-basin transfers (IBTs). Here, we

Clean water from forests is commonly used to supply drinking water to communities both within and outside basin boundaries through inter-basin transfers (IBTs). Here, we modified the Water Supply Stress Index (WaSSI) model to provide estimates of mean water yield and the proportion of mean flow originating on forested lands at the 12-Digit Hydrologic Unit Code scale across the conterminous United States (CONUS). We accounted for the benefits of forests for drinking water supply and receiving populations through IBTs by incorporating a new IBT database, surface intake location information for public drinking water systems, and modeled water yield from forests. We compiled the new database of 594 IBTs ranging from 0.01 million m3 yr−1 to 8,900 million m3 yr−1, for a total transferred volume of 116,894 million m3 yr−1. According to our results, forested lands comprised 28.7% of the total land area across CONUS, but contributed 46% of the total surface water yield. Approximately 125.5 million people derived more than 10% of their surface drinking water supply from forested lands, and 83.1 million people received more than 50% of their surface drinking water supply from forested lands. Of those 83.1 million people receiving more than 50% of their surface drinking water supply from forested lands, 19.4 million people obtained some (≥0.01%) of that water through IBTs. We conclude that accounting for IBTs is critical to accurately assess the contribution of forested watersheds for surface drinking water supply. Hydrologic models for assessment and decision making must include IBTs to fully account for the effects of climate change and human population dynamics on water resource availability at watershed to regional scales. Results from this study can aid water resource and forest managers in developing integrated watershed management plans at a time when climate change, population growth, and land use change threaten water supplies.

Interactions between snow cover and evaporation lead to higher sensitivity of streamflow to temperature

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | December 4th, 2020

Estimates of potential evaporation often neglect the effects of snow cover on evaporation process. Here, we present a definition of potential evaporation that explicitly

Estimates of potential evaporation often neglect the effects of snow cover on evaporation process. Here, we present a definition of potential evaporation that explicitly accounts for landscapes that are partially covered by snow. We show that, in the presence of snowpack, our evaporation estimates differ from conventional methods that assume evaporation from a free water surface. Specifically, we find that conventional methods overestimate potential evaporation as well as aridity, taken as the ratio of atmospheric water demand to supply, in landscapes where snowfall is significant. With dwindling snow-cover, actual aridity increases, which could explain the reduction in streamflow with decreasing snowfall. We suggest that streamflow, and hence water availability, is more sensitive to temperature changes in colder than in warmer regions.

Investigating Runoff Efficiency in Upper Colorado River Streamflow Over Past Centuries

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | January 5th, 2018

With increasing concerns about the impact of warming temperatures on water resources, more attention is being paid to the relationship between runoff and precipitat

With increasing concerns about the impact of warming temperatures on water resources, more attention is being paid to the relationship between runoff and precipitation, or runoff efficiency. Temperature is a key influence on Colorado River runoff efficiency, and warming temperatures are projected to reduce runoff efficiency. Here, we investigate the nature of runoff efficiency in the upper Colorado River (UCRB) basin over the past 400 years, with a specific focus on major droughts and pluvials, and to contextualize the instrumental period. We first verify the feasibility of reconstructing runoff efficiency from tree‐ring data. The reconstruction is then used to evaluate variability in runoff efficiency over periods of high and low flow, and its correspondence to a reconstruction of late runoff season UCRB temperature variability. Results indicate that runoff efficiency has played a consistent role in modulating the relationship between precipitation and streamflow over past centuries, and that temperature has likely been the key control. While negative runoff efficiency is most common during dry periods, and positive runoff efficiency during wet years, there are some instances of positive runoff efficiency moderating the impact of precipitation deficits on streamflow. Compared to past centuries, the 20th century has experienced twice as many high flow years with negative runoff efficiency, likely due to warm temperatures. These results suggest warming temperatures will continue to reduce runoff efficiency in wet or dry years, and that future flows will be less than anticipated from precipitation due to warming temperatures.

Irrigated agricultural adaptation to water and climate variability: The economic value of a water portfolio

Journal of Agricultural Economics (Wiley) | December 1st, 2014

Increasing aridity, more frequent and intense drought, and greater degrees of water scarcity create unique challenges for agriculture. In response to these challenges, wh

Increasing aridity, more frequent and intense drought, and greater degrees of water scarcity create unique challenges for agriculture. In response to these challenges, which often manifest themselves as lower and more variable surface water supplies, as well as depleted and degraded ground water supplies, growers tend to seek opportunities to adapt. One option for growers to reduce their exposure to water scarcity and heightened uncertainty is to diversify. Indeed, access to a portfolio of supplies is one way in which water and irrigation districts, as well as individual growers, are responding to the changing landscape of water resource availability. This article evaluates the benefits to irrigated agriculture from having access to multiple sources of water. With farm-level information on 1,900 agricultural parcels across California, we use the hedonic property value method to investigate the extent that growers benefit from having access to multiple sources of water (i.e., a water portfolio). Our results suggest that while lower quality waters, less reliable water, and less water all negatively impact agricultural land values, holding a water portfolio has a positive impact on land values through its role in mitigating the negative aspects of these factors and reducing the sensitivity of agriculture to climate-related factors. From a policy perspective, such results identify a valuable adaptation tool that irrigation districts may consider to help offset the negative impacts of climate change, drought, and population increases on water supply availability and reliability.

Irrigation in the Earth system

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | June 20th, 2023

Is climate change implicated in the 2013-2014 California drought? A hydrologic perspective

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | April 21st, 2015

California has experienced severe drought in 2012–2014 (which appears to be continuing into 2015), with especially low winter precipitation and mountain snowpack in wi

California has experienced severe drought in 2012–2014 (which appears to be continuing into 2015), with especially low winter precipitation and mountain snowpack in winter 2013–2014. However, the extent to which climate change is implicated in the drought, if at all, is not clear. By applying modeling and statistical approaches, we construct a historical record of California snowpack, runoff, and other hydrological variables of almost 100 years in length and use the reconstructed records to analyze climate trends in the Sierra Nevada and their impact on extreme drought events in the historic record. We confirm a general warming trend and associated decreasing trends in spring snowpack and runoff. We find that the warming may have slightly exacerbated some extreme events (including the 2013–2014 drought and the 1976–1977 drought of record), but the effect is modest; instead, these drought events are mainly the result of variability in precipitation.

Jet stream dynamics, hydroclimate, and fire in California from 1600 CE to present

National Academy of Sciences (NAS) | March 4th, 2019

Moisture delivery in California is largely regulated by the strength and position of the North Pacific jet stream (NPJ), winter high-altitude winds that influence regiona

Moisture delivery in California is largely regulated by the strength and position of the North Pacific jet stream (NPJ), winter high-altitude winds that influence regional hydroclimate and forest fire during the following warm season. We use climate model simulations and paleoclimate data to reconstruct winter NPJ characteristics back to 1571 CE to identify the influence of NPJ behavior on moisture and forest fire extremes in California before and during the more recent period of fire suppression. Maximum zonal NPJ velocity is lower and northward shifted and has a larger latitudinal spread during presuppression dry and high-fire extremes. Conversely, maximum zonal NPJ is higher and southward shifted, with narrower latitudinal spread during wet and low-fire extremes. These NPJ, precipitation, and fire associations hold across pre–20th-century socioecological fire regimes, including Native American burning, postcontact disruption and native population decline, and intensification of forest use during the later 19th century. Precipitation extremes and NPJ behavior remain linked in the 20th and 21st centuries, but fire extremes become uncoupled due to fire suppression after 1900. Simulated future conditions in California include more wet-season moisture as rain (and less as snow), a longer fire season, and higher temperatures, leading to drier fire-season conditions independent of 21st-century precipitation changes. Assuming continuation of current fire management practices, thermodynamic warming is expected to override the dynamical influence of the NPJ on climate–fire relationships controlling fire extremes in California. Recent widespread fires in California in association with wet extremes may be early evidence of this change.

Key Issues in Seawater Desalination in California: Energy and Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Pacific Institute | May 1st, 2013

Interest in seawater desalination in California is high, with 17 plants proposed along the California coast and two in Mexico. But removing the salt from seawater is an e

Interest in seawater desalination in California is high, with 17 plants proposed along the California coast and two in Mexico. But removing the salt from seawater is an energy-intensive process that consumes more energy per gallon than most other water supply and treatment options. A new report from the Pacific Institute series Key Issues for Seawater Desalination in California describes the energy requirements and associated greenhouse gas emissions for desalinated water and evaluates the impact of short- and long-term energy price variability on the cost of desalinated water. Energy requirements are key factors that will impact the extent and success of desalination in California. Key Issues for Seawater Desalination in California: Energy and Greenhouse Gas Emissions shows energy requirements for seawater desalination average about 15,000 kWh per million gallons of water produced. By comparison, the least energy-intensive options of local sources of groundwater and surface water require 0 – 3,400 kWh per million gallons; wastewater reuse, depending on treatment levels, may require from 1,000 – 8,300 kWh per million gallons; and energy requirements for importing water through the State Water Project to Southern California range from 7,900 – 14,000 kWh per million gallons. “Beyond the electricity required for the desalination facility itself, producing any new source of water, including through desalination, increases the amount of energy required to deliver and use the water produced as well as collect, treat, and dispose of the wastewater generated,” said Heather Cooley, co-director of the Pacific Institute Water Program and report author. Conservation and efficiency, by contrast, can help meet the anticipated needs associated with growth while maintaining or even reducing total energy use and greenhouse gas emissions.” Desalination is a reliable source of water, which can be especially valuable during a drought. However, building a desalination plant may reduce a water utility’s exposure to water reliability risks at the added expense of an increase in exposure to energy price risk. Energy is the largest single variable cost for a desalination plant, varying from one-third to more than one-half the cost of produced water. Because of its high energy use, desalination creates or increases the water supplier’s exposure to energy price variability.

Klamath/San Joaquin/Sacramento Hydroclimatic Reconstructions from Tree Rings

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | February 7th, 2014

This is a draft final report for Agreement Number 4600008850, “Klamath/San Joaquin/Sacramento Hydroclimatic Reconstructions”, signed October 13, 2010.  Work includes

This is a draft final report for Agreement Number 4600008850, “Klamath/San Joaquin/Sacramento Hydroclimatic Reconstructions”, signed October 13, 2010.  Work includes developing new and updated tree-ring chronologies, reconstructing specified streamflow and/or precipitation records in the Klamath, San Joaquin and Sacramento River Basins, and analyzing the time series properties of the reconstructions. These reconstructions allow assessment of hydrologic variability over centuries to millennia and give context for assessing recent drought events. Tasks on this project included field collections; laboratory work in sample preparation, dating and measurement; and statistical work in chronology development, reconstruction, and analysis of those reconstructions. The interpretation of the reconstructions includes five main components : 1) place instrumental-period flow statistics in a long-term context, 2) quantify droughts and wet periods, 3) identify cycles in wetness and dryness, 4) check consistency with other paleoclimatic data, and 5) assess reconstructed flow variations in the context of expected scenarios of climate. A total of 16 different hydroclimatic series – 11 flow records and 5 precipitation records, were reconstructed. This report summarizes the research project products and results. The Data and Methods section of this report describes the field collections and development of tree-ring chronologies, reconstruction modeling, and methods of analyzing reconstructions. The Results section focuses on the interpretation of selected key reconstructions for the Klamath, Sacramento, and San Joaquin basins. Annual time series of the 16 reconstructions are included as products in an appendix and in a digital spreadsheet.