Impacts of the 2014 severe drought on the Microcystis bloom in San Francisco Estuary

Harmful Algae (Elsevier) | February 17th, 2017

The increased frequency and intensity of drought with climate change may cause an increase in the magnitude and toxicity of freshwater cyanobacteria harmful algal blooms

The increased frequency and intensity of drought with climate change may cause an increase in the magnitude and toxicity of freshwater cyanobacteria harmful algal blooms (CHABs), including Microcystis blooms, in San Francisco Estuary, California. As the fourth driest year on record in San Francisco Estuary, the 2014 drought provided an opportunity to directly test the impact of severe drought on cyanobacteria blooms in SFE. A field sampling program was conducted between July and December 2014 to sample a suite of physical, chemical, and biological variables at 10 stations in the freshwater and brackish reaches of the estuary. The 2014 Microcystis bloom had the highest biomass and toxin concentration, earliest initiation, and the longest duration, since the blooms began in 1999. Median chlorophyll a concentration increased by 9 and 12 times over previous dry and wet years, respectively. Total microcystin concentration also exceeded that in previous dry and wet years by a factor of 11 and 65, respectively. Cell abundance determined by quantitative PCR indicated the bloom contained multiple potentially toxic cyanobacteria species, toxic Microcystis and relatively high total cyanobacteria abundance. The bloom was associated with extreme nutrient concentrations, including a 20-year high in soluble reactive phosphorus concentration and low to below detection levels of ammonium. Stable isotope analysis suggested the bloom varied with both inorganic and organic nutrient concentration, and used ammonium as the primary nitrogen source. Water temperature was a primary controlling factor for the bloom and was positively correlated with the increase in both total and toxic Microcystis abundance. In addition, the early initiation and persistence of warm water temperature coincided with the increased intensity and duration of the Microcystis bloom from the usual 3 to 4 months to 8 months. Long residence time was also a primary factor controlling the magnitude and persistence of the bloom, and was created by a 66% to 85% reduction in both the water inflow and diversion of water for agriculture during the summer. We concluded that severe drought conditions can lead to a significant increase in the abundance of Microcystis and other cyanobacteria, as well as their associated toxins.

Implications of projected climate change for groundwater recharge in the western United States

Journal of Hydrology (Elsevier) | March 1st, 2016

Existing studies on the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge are either global or basin/location-specific. The global studies lack the specificity to inform

Existing studies on the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge are either global or basin/location-specific. The global studies lack the specificity to inform decision making, while the local studies do little to clarify potential changes over large regions (major river basins, states, or groups of states), a scale often important in the development of water policy. An analysis of the potential impact of climate change on groundwater recharge across the western United States (west of 100 longitude) is presented synthesizing existing studies and applying current knowledge of recharge processes and amounts. Eight representative aquifers located across the region were evaluated. For each aquifer published recharge budget components were converted into four standard recharge mechanisms: diffuse, focused, irrigation, and mountain-systems recharge. Future changes in individual recharge mechanisms and total recharge were then estimated for each aquifer. Model-based studies of projected climate-change effects on recharge were available and utilized for half of the aquifers. For the remainder, forecasted changes in temperature and precipitation were logically propagated through each recharge mechanism producing qualitative estimates of direction of changes in recharge only (not magnitude). Several key patterns emerge from the analysis. First, the available estimates indicate average declines of 10–20% in total recharge across the southern aquifers, but with a wide range of uncertainty that includes no change. Second, the northern set of aquifers will likely incur little change to slight increases in total recharge. Third, mountain system recharge is expected to decline across much of the region due to decreased snowpack, with that impact lessening with higher elevation and latitude. Factors contributing the greatest uncertainty in the estimates include: (1) limited studies quantitatively coupling climate projections to recharge estimation methods using detailed, process-based numerical models; (2) a generally poor understanding of hydrologic flowpaths and processes in mountain systems; (3) difficulty predicting the response of focused recharge to potential changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events; and (4) unconstrained feedbacks between climate, irrigation practices, and recharge in highly developed aquifer systems.

Improved Bias Correction Techniques for Hydrological Simulations of Climate Change

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | December 13th, 2015

Global climate model (GCM) output typically needs to be bias corrected before it can be used for climate change impact studies. Three existing bias correction met

Global climate model (GCM) output typically needs to be bias corrected before it can be used for climate change impact studies. Three existing bias correction methods, and a new one developed here, are applied to daily maximum temperature and precipitation from 21 GCMs to investigate how different methods alter the climate change signal of the GCM. The quantile mapping (QM) and cumulative distribution function transform (CDF-t) bias correction methods can significantly alter the GCM’s mean climate change signal, with differences of up to 28C and 30% points for monthly mean temperature and precipitation, respectively. Equidistant quantile matching (EDCDFm) bias correction preserves GCM changes in mean daily maximum temperature but not precipitation. An extension to EDCDFm termed PresRat is introduced, which generally preserves the GCM changes in mean precipitation. Another problem is that GCMs can have difficulty simulating variance as a function of frequency. To address this, a frequency-dependent bias correction method is introduced that is twice as effective as standard bias correction in reducing errors in the models’ simulation of variance as a function of frequency, and it does so without making any locations worse, unlike standard bias correction. Last, a preconditioning technique is introduced that improves the simulation of the annual cycle while still allowing the bias correction to take account of an entire season’s values at once.

Improving the Federal Response to Western Drought: Five Areas for Reform

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | January 26th, 2016

The federal government is deeply involved in western water. It is the largest landowner, major supplier of irrigation, principal supporter of the farm sector, primary sou

The federal government is deeply involved in western water. It is the largest landowner, major supplier of irrigation, principal supporter of the farm sector, primary source of water information, and chief environmental regulator. For more than a century, western states have relied on a complex partnership with numerous federal agencies to manage water. The latest widespread drought has revealed both strengths and weaknesses in the federal role. To weather a warmer and possibly drier future, and to prepare for and respond to drought more effectively , the states and the federal government must address these weaknesses and work together to strengthen their partnership. Timely solutions are critical, given the growing vulnerability of the region’s residents, businesses, and environment to drought . This report identifies a suite of federal actions that can help weste rn states better manage drought . These reforms are, by design, modest and pragmatic. They focus on enhancing existing federal capacities, rather than implementing sweeping initiatives that would require time-consuming new funding or legislation.

Inaction’s Economic Cost for California’s Water Supply Challenges

University of California, Davis (UC Davis) | May 14th, 2025

California’s water system is in for challenges in coming decades as climate, groundwater policy, and environmental regulations reduce availability and increase variabil

California’s water system is in for challenges in coming decades as climate, groundwater policy, and environmental regulations reduce availability and increase variability in water supplies for agricultural and urban uses. A previous report estimated 4 to 9 million acre-feet (maf) per year of unavoidable reductions in existing water supplies, 12% to 25% of today’s water use (Lund et al. 2024). This report estimates the economic costs of not responding to these reductions in water availability.

Incorporating anthropogenic influences into fire probability models: Effects of human activity and climate change on fire activity in California

PLOS | April 28th, 2016

The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships between them, especially in the fa

The costly interactions between humans and wildfires throughout California demonstrate the need to understand the relationships between them, especially in the face of a changing climate and expanding human communities. Although a number of statistical and process-based wildfire models exist for California, there is enormous uncertainty about the location and number of future fires, with previously published estimates of increases ranging from nine to fifty-three percent by the end of the century. Our goal is to assess the role of climate and anthropogenic influences on the state’s fire regimes from 1975 to 2050. We develop an empirical model that integrates estimates of biophysical indicators relevant to plant communities and anthropogenic influences at each forecast time step. Historically, we find that anthropogenic influences account for up to fifty percent of explanatory power in the model. We also find that the total area burned is likely to increase, with burned area expected to increase by 2.2 and 5.0 percent by 2050 under climatic bookends (PCM and GFDL climate models, respectively). Our two climate models show considerable agreement, but due to potential shifts in rainfall patterns, substantial uncertainty remains for the semiarid inland deserts and coastal areas of the south. Given the strength of human-related variables in some regions, however, it is clear that comprehensive projections of future fire activity should include both anthropogenic and biophysical influences. Previous findings of substantially increased numbers of fires and burned area for California may be tied to omitted variable bias from the exclusion of human influences. The omission of anthropogenic variables in our model would overstate the importance of climatic ones by at least 24%. As such, the failure to include anthropogenic effects in many models likely overstates the response of wildfire to climatic change.

Incorporating Sea Level Change in Civil Works Programs

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) | December 31st, 2013

Increased drought and extreme events over continental United States under high emissions scenario

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | December 6th, 2023

Increased drought severity tracks warming in the United States’ largest river basin

National Academy of Sciences (NAS) | March 28th, 2020

Across the Upper Missouri River Basin, the recent drought of 2000 to 2010, known as the “turn-of-the-century drought,” was likely more severe than any in th

Across the Upper Missouri River Basin, the recent drought of 2000 to 2010, known as the “turn-of-the-century drought,” was likely more severe than any in the instrumental record including the Dust Bowl drought. However, until now, adequate proxy records needed to better understand this event with regard to long-term variability have been lacking. Here we examine 1,200 y of stream- flow from a network of 17 new tree-ring–based reconstructions for gages across the upper Missouri basin and an independent reconstruction of warm-season regional temperature in order to place the recent drought in a long-term climate context. We find that temperature has increasingly influenced the severity of drought events by decreasing runoff efficiency in the basin since the late 20th century (1980s) onward. The occurrence of extreme heat, higher evapotranspiration, and associated low-flow conditions across the basin has increased substantially over the 20th and 21st centuries, and recent warming aligns with increasing drought severities that rival or exceed any estimated over the last 12 centuries. Future warming is anticipated to cause increasingly severe droughts by enhancing water deficits that could prove challenging for water management.

Increased flood exposure due to climate change and population growth in the United States

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | October 30th, 2021

Precipitation extremes are increasing globally due to anthropogenic climate change. However, there remains uncertainty regarding impacts upon flood occurrence and subseq

Precipitation extremes are increasing globally due to anthropogenic climate change. However, there remains uncertainty regarding impacts upon flood occurrence and subsequent population exposure. Here, we quantify changes in population exposure to flood hazard across the contiguous United States. We combine simulations from a climate model large ensemble and a high‐resolution hydrodynamic flood model—allowing us to directly assess changes across a wide range of extreme precipitation magnitudes and accumulation timescales. We report a mean increase in the 100‐year precipitation event of ~20% (magnitude) and >200% (frequency) in a high warming scenario, yielding a ~30–127% increase in population exposure. We further find a nonlinear increase for the most intense precipitation events—suggesting accelerating societal impacts from historically rare or unprecedented precipitation events in the 21st century.