Relative impacts of mitigation, temperature, and precipitation on 21st-century megadrought risk in the American Southwest

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | October 5th, 2016

Megadroughts are comparable in severity to the worst droughts of the 20th century but are of much longer duration. A megadrought in the American Southwest would

Megadroughts are comparable in severity to the worst droughts of the 20th century but are of much longer duration. A megadrought in the American Southwest would impose unprecedented stress on the limited water resources of the area, making it critical to evaluate future risks not only under different climate change mitigation scenarios but also for different aspects of regional hydroclimate. We find that changes in the mean hydroclimate state, rather than its variability, determine megadrought risk in the American Southwest. Estimates of megadrought probabilities based on precipitation alone tend to underestimate risk. Furthermore, business-as-usual emissions of greenhouse gases will drive regional warming and drying, regardless of large precipitation uncertainties. We find that regional temperature increases alone push megadrought risk above 70, 90, or 99% by the end of the century, even if precipitation increases moderately, does not change, or decreases, respectively. Although each possibility is supported by some climate model simulations, the latter is the most common outcome for the American Southwest in Coupled Model Intercomparison 5 generation models. An aggressive reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions cuts megadrought risks nearly in half.

Response in the water quality of the Salton Sea, California, to changes in phosphorus loading: an empirical modeling approach

Hydrobiologia (Springer) | January 10th, 2008

Salton Sea, California, like many other lakes, has become eutrophic because of excessive nutrient loading, primarily phosphorus (P). A Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL)

Salton Sea, California, like many other lakes, has become eutrophic because of excessive nutrient loading, primarily phosphorus (P). A Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) is being prepared for P to reduce the input of P to the Sea. In order to better understand how P-load reductions should affect the average annual water quality of this terminal saline lake, three different eutrophication programs (BATHTUB, WiLMS, and the Seepage Lake Model) were applied. After verifying that specific empirical models within these programs were applicable to this saline lake, each model was calibrated using water quality and nutrient-loading data for 1999 and then used to simulate the effects of specific P-load reductions. Model simulations indicate that a 50% decrease in external P loading would decrease near-surface total phosphorus concentrations (TP) by 25– 50%. Application of other empirical models demonstrated that this decrease in loading should decrease near-surface chlorophyll a concentrations (Chl a) by 17–63% and increase Secchi depths (SD) by 38–97%. The wide range in estimated responses in Chl a and SD were primarily caused by uncertainty in how non-algal turbidity would respond to P-load reductions. If only the models most applicable to the Salton Sea are considered, a 70–90% P-load reduction is required for the Sea to be classified as moderately eutrophic (trophic state index of 55). These models simulate steady-state conditions in the Sea; therefore, it is difficult to ascertain how long it would take for the simulated changes to occur after load reductions.

Response of the upper ocean to northeast Pacific atmospheric rivers under climate change

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | October 19th, 2024

Click here for a plain language summary from the National Center for Atmospheric Research

Click here for a plain language summary from the National Center for Atmospheric Research

Review of Science Used to Estimate Water Supply Reliability Involving the Delta

Delta Stewardship Council (Delta Council) | April 3rd, 2018

Ridging associated with drought in western and southwestern United States: characteristics, trends and predictability

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | April 1st, 2020

Persistent winter ridging events are a consistent feature of meteorological drought across the western and southwestern United States. In this study, a ridge detection al

Persistent winter ridging events are a consistent feature of meteorological drought across the western and southwestern United States. In this study, a ridge detection algorithm is developed and applied on daily geopotential height anomalies to track and quantify the diversity of individual ridge characteristics (e.g., position, frequency, magnitude, extent, and persistence). Three dominant ridge types are shown to play important, but differing, roles for influencing the location of landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs), precipitation, and subsequently meteorological drought. For California, a combination of these ridge types is important for influencing precipitation deficits on daily through seasonal time scales, indicating the various pathways by which ridging can induce drought. Furthermore, both the frequency of ridge types and reduced AR activity are necessary features for explaining drought variability on seasonal time scales across the western and southwestern regions. The three ridge types are found to be associated in different ways with various remote drivers and modes of variability, highlighting possible sources of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictability. A comparison between ridge types shows that anomalously large and persistent ridging events relate to different Rossby wave trains across the Pacific with different preferential upstream locations of tropical heating. For the “South-ridge” type, centered over the Southwest, a positive trend is found in both the frequency and persistence of these events across recent decades, likely contributing to observed regional drying. These results illustrate the utility of feature tracking for characterizing a wider range of ridging features that collectively influence precipitation deficits and drought.

Rising Seas and Electricity Infrastructure: Potential Impacts and Adaptation Actions for San Diego Gas & Electric

California Energy Commission (CEC) | August 31st, 2018

Part A: Rising sea levels pose a threat to California’s energy infrastructure and the coastal communities that it serves. To better understand this threat, this

Part A: Rising sea levels pose a threat to California’s energy infrastructure and the coastal communities that it serves. To better understand this threat, this study analyzed the exposure of San Diego Gas & Electric Company (SDG&E) electricity assets in San Diego County to climate change- driven coastal wave flooding, tidal inundation, and coastal erosion. The study found that the greatest potential direct impacts are damage to four substations in the Mission Bay and San Diego Bay areas. By modeling the potential costs to customers from unserved energy due to service disruptions driven by exposed substations, this study found economic impacts could— under an extreme sea level rise scenario in the late 21st century compounded by a 100 year storm-- range from $1.2 billion to $25 billion, assuming no adaptation actions are taken. Nearby communities could also experience indirect impacts if critical customers served by the substations—such as sewage pumping stations, hospitals, airports, and ports—are affected by outages. For other asset types, potential direct impacts are expected in the form of increased maintenance and repair costs. The research team identified a range of potential adaptation measures to build resilience to potential impacts. The application of flexible adaptation pathways emerged through the study as the best approach to improve implementation of these measures in the face of future uncertainty. Rather than selecting adaptation measures based only on what is known today, flexible adaptation pathways help establish information that that should be tracked, termed signposts, to help navigate uncertainty, set thresholds that trigger adaptation actions, and determine if an adaptation plan is meeting its objectives. Using these pathways, four initial climate adaptation actions were identified for SDG&E: 1) enhance coastal storm prediction and response, 2) identify signposts and thresholds that indicate when the need for an adaptation decision is approaching, 3) conduct consultations with regional stakeholders to identify opportunities to improve community-wide resilience, and 4) improve and fine-tune cost-benefit analysis methods to increase accuracy and confidence in cost-benefit estimates that incorporate climate change. Click here for Part B of the report, Potential Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Actions for Gas Assets in the San Diego Gas and Electric Company Service Area, CEC, 2018

Risk-Informed Future Climate Scenario Development for the State Water Project Delivery Capability Report

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | August 24th, 2023

This report introduces and documents an extensive effort undertaken by the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) to develop risk-informed future climate scenario

This report introduces and documents an extensive effort undertaken by the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) to develop risk-informed future climate scenarios for the State Water Project (SWP) Delivery Capability Report (DCR), a report issued by the SWP every two years. These reports present DWR’s analysis of the SWP system and planning information for users of SWP water. The analysis provides information about how climate change, regulatory, and operational considerations affect SWP delivery capability. Specifically, the report must provide “…under a range of hydrologic conditions, the then existing overall delivery capability of the project facilities and the allocation of that capacity to each contractor. The range of hydrologic conditions shall include the historic extended dry cycle and long-term average.” (Settlement Agreement 2003).

River-Aquifer Interactions, Geologic Heterogeneity, and Low-Flow Management

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | ?

Low river flows are commonly controlled by river-aquifer exchange, the magnitude of which is governed by hydraulic properties of both aquifer and aquitard mater

Low river flows are commonly controlled by river-aquifer exchange, the magnitude of which is governed by hydraulic properties of both aquifer and aquitard materials beneath the river. Low flows are often important ecologically. Numerical simulations were used to assess how textural heterogeneity of an alluvial system influences river seepage and low flows. The Cosumnes River in California was used as a test case. Declining fall flows in the Cosumnes River have threatened Chinook salmon runs. A ground water–surface water model for the lower river basin was developed, which incorporates detailed geostatistical simulations of aquifer heterogeneity. Six different realizations of heterogeneity and a homogenous model were run for a 3-year period. Net annual seepage from the river was found to be similar among the models. However, spatial distribution of seepage along the channel, water table configuration and the level of local connection, and disconnection between the river and aquifer showed strong variations among the different heterogeneous models. Most importantly, the heterogeneous models suggest that river seepage losses can be reduced by local reconnections, even when the regional water table remains well below the riverbed. The percentage of river channel responsible for 50% of total river seepage ranged from 10% to 26% in the heterogeneous models as opposed to 23% in the homogeneous model. Differences in seepage between the models resulted in up to 13 d difference in the number of days the river was open for salmon migration during the critical fall months in one given year.

SacPAS Fish Model: A model for emergence, migration and survival of Sacramento River salmon

Delta Stewardship Council (Delta Council) | November 1st, 2017

Sacramento and San Joaquin River Basins Comprehensive Study Technical Studies Documentation: Reservoir Operations Modeling - Existing Design Operations and Re-operation Analyses

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) | December 1st, 2002

In response to extensive flooding and damages experienced in 1997, the United States Congress authorized the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Sacramento District (USACE) to

In response to extensive flooding and damages experienced in 1997, the United States Congress authorized the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Sacramento District (USACE) to provide a comprehensive analysis of the Sacramento and San Joaquin river basin flood management systems and to partner with the State of California to develop master plans for flood damage reduction. The USACE and the State Reclamation Board of California are leading this Comprehensive Study to improve flood management and integrate ecosystem restoration in the Sacramento and San Joaquin river basins. The authorization for the Comprehensive Study directed the development of hydrologic and hydraulic models for both river basins that will allow systematic evaluation. These models incorporate reservoir operations and flow along the major river systems to evaluate the performance of the flood management systems. The models can be used to assess the performance of the current systems or modified systems under a wide range of hydrologic conditions. This report documents the work conducted for the Sacramento and San Joaquin River Basins Comprehensive Study to develop reservoir operation models, specifically Phase II – Model Refinement and Simulation of both existing operational conditions and evaluation of flood management alternatives. The main product components of this effort include: HEC-5 Reservoir Operation Models for the Sacramento and San Joaquin River basins, which will include headwater and major flood management reservoirs. The first part of this document is limited to the use of reservoir models to identify and describe baseline conditions. It does not include the formulation or evaluation of flood management alternatives. The performance of modified flood management strategies is addressed within subsequent sections of this document. Future work will continue to use these models in the analysis of alternatives for reducing flood damages in California’s Central Valley.