Uplift and seismicity driven by groundwater depletion in central California

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | May 14th, 2014

Groundwater use in California’s San Joaquin Valley exceeds replenishment of the aquifer, leading to substantial diminution of this resource and rapid subsidence of the

Groundwater use in California’s San Joaquin Valley exceeds replenishment of the aquifer, leading to substantial diminution of this resource and rapid subsidence of the valley floor. The volume of groundwater lost over the past century and a half also represents a substantial reduction in mass and a large-scale unburdening of the lithosphere, with significant but unexplored potential impacts on crustal deformation and seismicity. Here we use vertical global positioning system measurements to show that a broad zone of rock uplift of up to 1–3 mm per year surrounds the southern San Joaquin Valley. The observed uplift matches well with predicted flexure from a simple elastic model of current rates of water-storage loss, most of which is caused by groundwater depletion. The height of the adjacent central Coast Ranges and the Sierra Nevada is strongly seasonal and peaks during the dry late summer and autumn, out of phase with uplift of the valley floor during wetter months. Our results suggest that long-term and late-summer flexural uplift of the Coast Ranges reduce the effective normal stress resolved on the San Andreas Fault. This process brings the fault closer to failure, thereby providing a viable mechanism for observed seasonality in microseismicity at Parkfield and potentially affecting long-term seismicity rates for fault systems adjacent to the valley. We also infer that the observed contemporary uplift of the southern Sierra Nevada previously attributed to tectonic or mantle-derived forces is partly a consequence of human-caused groundwater depletion.

User Manual for the California Central Valley Groundwater-Surface Water Simulation Model

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | June 13th, 2013

This report describes the input and output files for the California Central Valley Groundwater-Surface Water Simulation Model (C2VSim). C2VSim is an integrated numeri

This report describes the input and output files for the California Central Valley Groundwater-Surface Water Simulation Model (C2VSim). C2VSim is an integrated numerical model simulating land surface processes and groundwater and surface water flows in the main alluvial aquifer system of California’s Central Valley (figure 1). C2VSim was developed using the Integrated Water Flow Model (IWFM) application, which couples a three-dimensional finite element groundwater simulation process with one-dimensional land surface, stream flow, lake, unsaturated zone and smallstream watershed simulation processes. The C2VSim version described in this report runs under IWFM version 3.02 and utilizes a coarse grid, and is thus referred to as version 3.02-CG. In addition, the input files for the C2VSim model are regularly updated to correct errors, incorporate improved input data or extend the simulation time period. These updates are referred to as revisions; this report describes the data in revision R374, released in June 2013. The C2VSim model inputs include monthly historical precipitation, stream inflows, surface water diversions, land use and crop acreages for the simulation period, October 1921 through September 2009. C2VSim dynamically calculates crop water demands, allocates contributions from precipitation, soil moisture and surface water diversions, and calculates the groundwater pumpage required to meet the remaining demand. The coarse grid version of the C2VSim model incorporates a finite element grid with 1392 elements, grouped into 21 water budget subregions (figure 1), which are further grouped by drainage basin into five hydrologic regions. The model subregions are based on Depletion Study Areas (DSAs), originally created by the DWR Division of Planning for estimating regional water supplies and demands. Hydrologic parameters (including hydraulic conductivities, storage parameters and recession coefficients) were calibrated to match observed values including groundwater heads, groundwater head differences between well pairs, surface water flows, and stream-groundwater flows for the period between September 1975 and October 2003. The model simulates the historical response of the Central Valley’s groundwater flow system to historical stresses, and can also be used to simulate the response to projected future stresses. Agricultural groundwater pumping is not monitored in the Central Valley, and the C2VSim model provides pumpage estimates that are considered robust because they are constrained spatially and temporally by the estimated demand and surface water supplies. The calibrated model is also being used as the basis for the groundwater flow component of CalSim 3, a water resources planning model for simulating operation of the California State Water Project (SWP) and Federal Central Valley Project (CVP).

Using Landsat and MODIS satellite collections to examine extent, timing, and potential impacts of surface water inundation in California croplands

Remote Sensing Applications: Society and Environment (RSASE) | October 1st, 2022

The state of California, United States of America produces many crop products that are both utilized domestically and exported throughout the world. With nearly 39,000 km

The state of California, United States of America produces many crop products that are both utilized domestically and exported throughout the world. With nearly 39,000 km2 of croplands, monitoring unintentional and intentional surface water inundation is important for water resource management and flood hazard readiness. We examine inundation dynamics in California croplands from 2003 to 2020 by intersecting monthly surface water maps (n = 216 months) derived using two satellite remote sensing platforms (Landsat and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer [MODIS]) with a high-quality cropland map generated by the California Department of Water Resources. Surface water maps were produced using the Dynamic Surface Water Extent model, in which satellite image pixels are classified into different levels of detection confidence. Our analysis focused on calculating monthly and annual occurrence of “high confidence” water for each satellite collection across eight cropland types and 58 counties. Results indicate that 49.9% (MODIS) to 56.4% (Landsat) of croplands were inundated at least once during the 18-year timespan. Rice crops, due to their unique need of consistent surface water and dominance as a crop type in CA, had the highest proportion of and mean annual inundation area, while citrus crops had the lowest. Mean monthly inundation patterns in most croplands followed California's precipitation patterns with high inundation during the winter and spring rainy season. At the county level, croplands in the southern Central Valley typically had high occurrences of inundation in conjunction with large crop areas. Exposure and sensitivity of inundation for three crop types (citrus, deciduous, and vineyards) that are typically less associated with intentional inundation were geographically variable, but overall were generally highest in counties in the southern Central Valley, California's primary agricultural region. Flood and precipitation related crop insurance claims indicated that rice had the highest mean indemnity payout for any month with damages typically occurring in March and April. Insurance claims were also high in deciduous fruit and nut crops, which had peak damages in February. A comparison between inundation results and insurance claims suggests that the inundation mapped by our process coincides with claim activity. These data elucidate water inundation patterns across the state that can serve to inform farmers, insurers, decision makers, resource managers, and flood mitigation professionals.

Using machine learning to predict 1,2,3-trichloropropane contamination from legacy non-point source pollution of groundwater in California's Central Valley

Elsevier | May 6th, 2023

1,2,3-tricholoropropane (TCP) is an impurity common in nematicides applied to agricultural soils from the 1940s to the 1980s. Evidence from animal studies indicates t

1,2,3-tricholoropropane (TCP) is an impurity common in nematicides applied to agricultural soils from the 1940s to the 1980s. Evidence from animal studies indicates that TCP is a probable human carcinogen. TCP leaches through the soil into groundwater where it persists and contaminates thousands of wells in Asia, Europe, and North America. In California, TCP contaminates drinking water wells, with the highest levels of TCP beneath agricultural land used to grow grapevines. This study performs a mass balance and evaluates the ability of three types of tree-based machine learning models to predict TCP concentration in California's Central Valley aquifer system: classification and regression trees (CART), Random Forest (RF), and Boosted Regression Trees (BRT). To construct the models, multiple spatial explanatory variables were used, including historical agricultural land use data, irrigation levels, precipitation, soil type, groundwater age, redox state, and the presence of the co-contaminant nitrate. To estimate the amount of TCP applied to farmland in California, state historical pesticide and land use documents were used in the mass balance. Between 110,000 and 4,300,000 kg of TCP are estimated to have accumulated in the subsurface. Machine learning models indicate that the most important explanatory variables to predict TCP contamination of groundwater are precipitation, redox state, and the presence of the co-contaminant nitrate. Additionally, a 1000-m buffer area offers a slightly higher predictive performance as compared to 500-m and 1500-m buffers. Furthermore, the RF model outperforms CART and BRT for predictive performance. Finally, modeling using decision trees can predict TCP contamination levels in areas where monitoring is lacking, help target future TCP monitoring efforts, and aid in identifying areas to avoid when drilling new drinking water wells.

Using Sentinel‐1 and GRACE satellite data to monitor the hydrological variations within the Tulare Basin, California

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | March 9th, 2022

Subsidence induced by groundwater depletion is a grave problem in many regions around the world, leading to a permanent loss of groundwater storage within an aquifer and

Subsidence induced by groundwater depletion is a grave problem in many regions around the world, leading to a permanent loss of groundwater storage within an aquifer and even producing structural damage at the Earth’s surface. California’s Tulare Basin is no exception, experiencing about a meter of subsidence between 2015 and 2020. However, understanding the relationship between changes in groundwater volumes and ground deformation has proven difficult. We employ surface displacement measurements from Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) and gravimetric estimates of terrestrial water storage from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite pair to characterize the hydrological dynamics within the Tulare basin. The removal of the long-term aquifer compaction from the InSAR time series reveals coherent short-term variations that correlate with hydrological features. For example, in the winter of 2018–2019 uplift is observed at the confluence of several rivers and streams that drain into the southeastern edge of the basin. These observations, combined with estimates of mass changes obtained from the orbiting GRACE satellites, form the basis for imaging the monthly spatial variations in water volumes. This approach facilitates the quick and effective synthesis of InSAR and gravimetric datasets and will aid efforts to improve our understanding and management of groundwater resources around the world.

Water and the Future of the San Joaquin Valley

Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) | February 14th, 2019

The San Joaquin Valley—California’s largest agricultural region and an important contributor to the nation’s food supply—is in a time of great change. The valle

The San Joaquin Valley—California’s largest agricultural region and an important contributor to the nation’s food supply—is in a time of great change. The valley is ground zero for many of California’s most difficult water management problems—including groundwater overdraft, drinking water contamination, and declines in habitat and native species. Local water supplies are limited, particularly in the southern half of the region. To irrigate their crops, many farmers use water imported from the Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta. But in many places farmers have also relied on groundwater overdraft—pumping groundwater in excess of the rate at which it is replenished. Worsening droughts, increasing regulations to protect endangered native fishes, and growing demand by Southern California for Delta imports have compounded surface water scarcity. The state’s Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) requires local water users to bring groundwater use to sustainable levels by the early 2040s. This will have a broad impact on valley agriculture and the regional economy in coming years—likely including some permanent idling of farmland. This report explores three key challenges facing the San Joaquin Valley and reviews the most promising approaches to address them:  Balancing water supplies and demands. To close the groundwater deficit, groundwater sustainability agencies in the valley’s overdrafted basins will have to augment supplies, reduce demands, or use some combination of these two approaches. A range of options are under consideration but they are not equally effective or practical.  Addressing groundwater quality challenges. Poor groundwater quality impairs drinking water supplies in disadvantaged rural communities, reduces long-term agricultural prosperity, and degrades ecosystems. Providing safe drinking water is an urgent priority. Over the longer term, parties will also need to manage water quantity and quality together, to take advantage of synergies and avoid unintended consequences. The necessary coordination will be challenging because the various programs addressing valley water quality issues are carried out by numerous local and regional entities, whose lines of responsibility and geographic boundaries do not neatly align.  Fostering beneficial water and land use transitions. Effectively addressing water scarcity and the resulting land use changes in the San Joaquin Valley offers opportunities to put lands coming out of production to good use—and gain “more pop per drop” from limited water resources. Multiple-benefit approaches to water and land management can enhance groundwater recharge and improve air and water quality. They can also promote healthier soils, new recreational opportunities, additional flood protection, improved habitat, and new revenue streams for private landowners engaging in conservation-oriented management. Addressing these complex and intertwined issues requires significant changes in water and land management and a major ramp-up in cooperation and coordination among a wide circle of stakeholders. Pursuing solutions that deliver multiple benefits will boost the chances of success overall. The entire region—and California as a whole—will benefit if solutions to these challenges are cost-effective and support the valley’s economy while improving public health and the natural environment.

Water availability and land subsidence in the Central Valley, California, USA

Hydrogeology Journal (Springer) | November 17th, 2015

The Central Valley in California (USA) covers about 52,000 km2 and is one of the most productive agricultural regions in the world. This agriculture relies heavily on sur

The Central Valley in California (USA) covers about 52,000 km2 and is one of the most productive agricultural regions in the world. This agriculture relies heavily on surface-water diversions and groundwater pumpage to meet irrigation water demand. Because the valley is semi-arid and surface-water availability varies substantially, agriculture relies heavily on local groundwater. In the southern two thirds of the valley, the San Joaquin Valley, historic and recent groundwater pumpage has caused significant and extensive drawdowns, aquifer-system compaction and subsidence. During recent drought periods (2007–2009 and 2012-present), groundwater pumping has increased owing to a combination of decreased surface-water availability and land-use changes. Declining groundwater levels, approaching or surpassing historical low levels, have caused accelerated and renewed compaction and subsidence that likely is mostly permanent. The subsidence has caused operational, maintenance, and construction-design problems for water-delivery and flood control canals in the San Joaquin Valley. Planning for the effects of continued subsidence in the area is important for water agencies. As land use, managed aquifer recharge, and surface-water availability continue to vary, long-term groundwater-level and subsidence monitoring and modelling are critical to understanding the dynamics of historical and continued groundwater use resulting in additional water-level and groundwater storage declines, and associated subsidence. Modeling tools such as the Central Valley Hydrologic Model can be used in the evaluation of management strategies to mitigate adverse impacts due to subsidence while also optimizing water availability. This knowledge will be critical for successful implementation of recent legislation aimed toward sustainable groundwater use. *Erratum: Water availability and land subsidence in the Central Valley, California, USA, Faunt, C.C., Sneed, M., Traum, J. et al. Hydrogeol J (2017) 25: 2215

Water availability and subsidence in California’s Central Valley

University of California, Davis (UC Davis) | September 5th, 2015

California’s Central Valley covers about 52,000 square kilometers (km2) and is one of the most productive agricultural regions in the world. More than 250 different c

California’s Central Valley covers about 52,000 square kilometers (km2) and is one of the most productive agricultural regions in the world. More than 250 different crops are grown in the broad alluvial filled structural trough, with an estimated value exceeding $20 billion per year (Faunt 2009) (Figure 1). Central Valley agriculture depends on state and federal water systems that divert surface water, predominantly originating from Sierra Nevada snowmelt, to agricultural fields. Because the valley is semi-arid and the availability of surface water varies substantially from year to year, season to season, and from north to south, agriculture, as it grew, developed a reliance on groundwater for irrigation.

Water Blueprint for the San Joaquin Valley Economic Impact Analysis: Phase One Results

Water Blueprint for San Joaquin Valley | February 15th, 2020

Water Quality Control Plan for the Sacramento and San Joaquin Basins

Central Valley Regional Water Quality Control Board (CVRWQCB) | November 8th, 2016

Water Quality Control Plans or “Basin Plans” provide the foundation for all Central Valley Water Board regulatory actions. Basin Plans identify beneficial uses of sur

Water Quality Control Plans or “Basin Plans” provide the foundation for all Central Valley Water Board regulatory actions. Basin Plans identify beneficial uses of surface and ground waters, water quality objectives to protect those uses, implementation actions to achieve objectives, and a monitoring and surveillance program to insure that implementation actions are effective. All actions by the Board must be compliant with the Basin Plans. The Central Valley Water Board has two Basin Plans: one for the Sacramento and San Joaquin River Basins and one for the Tulare Lake Basin. A public review process is conducted every three years (Triennial Review) to identify and prioritize actions needed to address water quality concerns and maintain effectiveness of the Basin Plans. Upon Board approval of the Triennial Review work plan, staff investigates water quality issues and proposes amendments to the Basin Plans for Board consideration. Amendments may range from developing site specific water quality objectives for a single constituent such as copper, to basin-wide control programs for a suite of potential pollutants such as pyrethroids, to policy recommendations and strategies for addressing emerging contaminants and/or climate change. This basin plan has many sections with many amendments, and so no attempt is made to house this document in the library.  Instead, please visit the Central Valley Regional Water Quality Control Board's basin planning page.