Impact of current and warmer climate conditions on snow cover loss in burned forests

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | September 17th, 2025

Wildfires are increasingly burning in snow-dominated watersheds and can alter snowmelt dynamics. However, the spatial variability of snow cover loss in burned forests has

Wildfires are increasingly burning in snow-dominated watersheds and can alter snowmelt dynamics. However, the spatial variability of snow cover loss in burned forests has been under characterized. Here, we use remotely sensed snow data to show that, under average winter conditions, snow melts earlier in the first year postfire in 99% of the snow zone. Postfire snow cover loss is more extreme in relatively low-elevation, warm environments compared to that in high-elevation, cold regions. Under +2°C of warming, 73% of the snow zone would experience more extreme earlier postfire snowmelt compared to historically average conditions. Regions with the largest shift earlier in postfire snowmelt timing under average climate conditions also have the largest shift earlier in postfire snowmelt under +2°C warming. The spatial variability in postfire snowmelt timing and exacerbated impact in projected warmer winters affect ecosystem water availability, snow albedo feedbacks, and snowmelt runoff forecasting essential to water resource management.

Increasing Hydroclimatic Whiplash Can Amplify Wildfire Risk in a Warming Climate

Global Change Biology (Wiley) | February 7th, 2025

The catastrophic January 2025 fires were propelled by an especially extreme combination of these two recognized risk factors: (1) downslope wind gusts over 80 mph (35 m/s

The catastrophic January 2025 fires were propelled by an especially extreme combination of these two recognized risk factors: (1) downslope wind gusts over 80 mph (35 m/s) and exceptionally dry vegetation following a historically dry start to the rainy season and unusually warm antecedent temperatures driving a prolonged episode of elevated atmospheric evaporative demand. But there was also a third contributor: two consecutive anomalously wet winters (in 2022–2023 and 2023–2024), which led to abundant growth of herbaceous vegetation across CSC. This remarkable wet-to-dry sequence, therefore, set the stage for the CSC wildfire disasters to unfold by first facilitating prodigious fuel accumulation during the previous growing seasons, then subsequently drying vegetation to produce exceptional flammability unusually far into winter (when Santa Ana winds are common). Globally, climate change has increased wildfire potential primarily through greater aridity (Jain et al. 2022). In CSC, hotter summer and autumn seasons drive this aridity by increasing evaporative demand (i.e., atmospheric “thirst”), subsequently drying out vegetation. This, in conjunction with an increasingly delayed onset of the rainy season (Goss et al. 2020), may also be increasing temporal overlap between critically dry vegetation and Santa Ana winds (Swain 2021). As the events of January 2025 vividly illustrate, however, transitions from anomalously wet to anomalously dry conditions may further amplify these risks by exacerbating fuel accumulation and desiccation cycles. Indeed, in fire regimes (including CSC) where fire occurrence varies strongly with inter-annual variations in biomass (Swetnam et al. 2016), increased hydroclimate volatility is causally linked to increased wildfire activity.

Intensifying Fire Season Aridity Portends Ongoing Expansion of Severe Wildfire in Western U.S. Forests

Global Change Biology (Wiley) | August 19th, 2026

Area burned by wildfire has increased in western US forests and elsewhere over recent decades coincident with warmer and drier fire seasons. However, high–severity fire

Area burned by wildfire has increased in western US forests and elsewhere over recent decades coincident with warmer and drier fire seasons. However, high–severity fire—fire that kills all or most trees—is arguably a more important metric of fire activity given its destabilizing influence on forest ecosystems and direct and indirect impacts to human communities. Here, we quantified area burned and area burned severely in western US forests from 1985 to 2022 and evaluated trends through time. We also assessed key relationships between area burned, extent and proportion burned severely, and fire season climate aridity. Lastly, using the strong relationships between fire season aridity and both area burned and area burned severely, we predicted future fire activity under ongoing warming. While annual area burned increased 10-fold over our study period, area burned severely increased 15-fold. Disproportionate increases in severe fire occurred across a wide range of forest types from 1985 to 2022. Importantly, we found that the proportion of area burned severely increased with fire extent at the scale of individual fires and total annual area burned. The relationships between fire season aridity and fire were strong, and our models predicted further increases in fire activity, leading to 2.9- and 4-fold increases in area burned and area burned severely, respectively, under mid-21st century climate. Without a substantial expansion of management activities that effectively reduce fire severity (e.g., thinning of understory and fire-intolerant trees combined with prescribed fire), wildfires will increasingly drive forest loss and degrade ecosystem services including carbon storage, biodiversity conservation, and water yield, with major impacts to human communities.

Metals in Wildfire Suppressants

American Chemical Society (ACS) | October 30th, 2024

Organic Chemical Contaminants in Water System Infrastructure Following Wildfire

American Chemical Society (ACS) | February 1st, 2022

Wildfires have destroyed multiple residential communities in California in recent years. After fires in 2017 and 2018, high concentrations of benzene and other volatile o

Wildfires have destroyed multiple residential communities in California in recent years. After fires in 2017 and 2018, high concentrations of benzene and other volatile organic compounds (VOCs) were found in public drinking water systems in fire-affected areas. The sources of the contamination and appropriate remediation have been urgent matters of investigation. This study characterizes target and nontarget VOCs and semivolatile organic compounds (SVOCs) in water from a highly contaminated service line after the 2018 Camp Fire (Paradise, CA). Ninety-five organic compounds were identified or tentatively identified in the service line. Laboratory combustion experiments with drinking water pipes made of polyvinyl chloride (PVC), cross-linked polyethylene, and high-density polyethylene and a review of the literature were used to evaluate potential sources of the detected chemicals. Among the service line contaminants were 32 compounds associated with PVC pyrolysis and 28 organic compounds also associated with the pyrolysis of polyethylene. The service line sample also contained 55 compounds associated with uncontrolled burning of biomass and waste materials. The findings support hypotheses that wildfires can contaminate drinking water systems both by thermal damage to plastic pipes and intrusion of smoke. Residual chlorine disinfectants in the water system modify the contaminant distribution observed.

Post-fire evapotranspiration estimates in ground truth limited environments

Elsevier | June 16th, 2025

Wildfires are catastrophic events with increasing incidence and severity, especially in Mediterranean climates like California. Wildfires can drastically change the hydro

Wildfires are catastrophic events with increasing incidence and severity, especially in Mediterranean climates like California. Wildfires can drastically change the hydrologic components of a watershed and require consistent and reliable data to monitor recovery. With the upcoming retirement of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), a reliable evapotranspiration (ET) product at the subcatchment scale is necessary to monitor longitudinal ET, particularly post-fire. We evaluate NASA JPL's ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS), MODIS, and the North American Land Data Assimilation System phase 2 (NLDAS-2) to assess performance in longitudinal evapotranspiration (ET) estimates and post-fire ET change detection using correlation analysis and linear regression for twelve subwatersheds located within the August Complex Fire (August 2020) in Trinity County, the Delta Fire (September 2018) in Shasta and Trinity Counties, and the Creek Fire (September 2020) in Fresno County for a four-year period. We found that MODIS and ECOSTRESS showed the strongest correlation in daily ET estimates (mean r = 0.56), while correlations between ECOSTRESS-NLDAS-2 (r = 0.06) and MODIS-NLDAS-2 (r = 0.30) were notably weaker. However, ECOSTRESS data availability constrained post-fire change detection and annual ET sum assessments. Its higher spatial resolution and correlation with MODIS have potential for finer-scale model parameterization of post-fire landcover changes, particularly vegetation loss in place of MODIS. NLDAS-2 can be useful in monthly and annual patterns at larger scales. By comparing ECOSTRESS with established platforms of ET estimation, we validate ECOSTRESS as a tool for post-fire ET monitoring, especially in areas where ground truth data is unavailable. These findings can allow for more informed and effective land management decisions, particularly in wildfire and vegetation monitoring.

Post‐Fire Sediment Yield from a Western Sierra Nevada Watershed Burned by the 2021 Caldor Fire

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | January 7th, 2025

Property Prices in Peril

First Street | February 3rd, 2025

Regional desirability is being reshaped by chronic changes in climate across the country: coastal areas are increasingly threatened by sea level rise, while inland region

Regional desirability is being reshaped by chronic changes in climate across the country: coastal areas are increasingly threatened by sea level rise, while inland regions face intensifying heat waves, droughts, and floods. At the same time, the increased frequency and intensity of natural disasters has triggered unprecedented levels of property damage, prompting insurance providers to increase premiums or withdraw coverage from high-risk areas altogether. Chronic climate changes create additional financial burdens – from surging utility bills to increased maintenance costs. Ultimately, environmental stressors and associated rising homeownership costs are together reshaping home values. With residential real estate representing one of the largest economic sectors in the country, these shifts will result in serious impacts that ripple through communities. Understanding these dynamics is crucial as public and private stakeholders navigate an increasingly complex landscape where housing decisions must balance traditional location value drivers with new climate realities.

Recent strengthening of eastern Pacific ENSO in the last millennium paleorecord

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | August 27th, 2026

The Pacific El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) generates climate extremes that endanger ecosystems, infrastructure, and human well-being worldwide. The response of th

The Pacific El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) generates climate extremes that endanger ecosystems, infrastructure, and human well-being worldwide. The response of this system to climate warming is poorly constrained, due both to data scarcity and uncertainties in climate models. The geochemistry of Galápagos coral skeletons across the past millennium reveals a large recent increase in interannual variability of sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific compared to existing paleorecords that exceeds simulated natural variability. This increase parallels rising global temperature and results from stronger El Niño events. Central Pacific coral data also show increased variability, although less distinctly than in the Galápagos. Our results provide long-term context for understanding ENSO variability trends, with troubling implications for climate extremes.

Redefining expectations for urban water supply systems to fight wildfires

Springer Nature | March 5th, 2025

When considering massive new costs for urban water systems to fight wildfires, we also need to look hard at the distribution of benefits from these investments, and desig

When considering massive new costs for urban water systems to fight wildfires, we also need to look hard at the distribution of benefits from these investments, and design legal and fiscal cost recovery mechanisms that align with those benefits. In the service area for the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, greatly expanding capacity for water supply and fire-flow for the highest-elevation areas of the city would be delivering a benefit to communities that are much wealthier, on average, than the rest of the city. There is danger of placing a burden on less-resourced households to pay for the protection of well-resourced households, which would compound existing and profound environmental inequities in the city.