Increasing Hydroclimatic Whiplash Can Amplify Wildfire Risk in a Warming Climate

Global Change Biology (Wiley) | February 7th, 2025

The catastrophic January 2025 fires were propelled by an especially extreme combination of these two recognized risk factors: (1) downslope wind gusts over 80 mph (35 m/s

The catastrophic January 2025 fires were propelled by an especially extreme combination of these two recognized risk factors: (1) downslope wind gusts over 80 mph (35 m/s) and exceptionally dry vegetation following a historically dry start to the rainy season and unusually warm antecedent temperatures driving a prolonged episode of elevated atmospheric evaporative demand. But there was also a third contributor: two consecutive anomalously wet winters (in 2022–2023 and 2023–2024), which led to abundant growth of herbaceous vegetation across CSC. This remarkable wet-to-dry sequence, therefore, set the stage for the CSC wildfire disasters to unfold by first facilitating prodigious fuel accumulation during the previous growing seasons, then subsequently drying vegetation to produce exceptional flammability unusually far into winter (when Santa Ana winds are common). Globally, climate change has increased wildfire potential primarily through greater aridity (Jain et al. 2022). In CSC, hotter summer and autumn seasons drive this aridity by increasing evaporative demand (i.e., atmospheric “thirst”), subsequently drying out vegetation. This, in conjunction with an increasingly delayed onset of the rainy season (Goss et al. 2020), may also be increasing temporal overlap between critically dry vegetation and Santa Ana winds (Swain 2021). As the events of January 2025 vividly illustrate, however, transitions from anomalously wet to anomalously dry conditions may further amplify these risks by exacerbating fuel accumulation and desiccation cycles. Indeed, in fire regimes (including CSC) where fire occurrence varies strongly with inter-annual variations in biomass (Swetnam et al. 2016), increased hydroclimate volatility is causally linked to increased wildfire activity.

Metals in Wildfire Suppressants

American Chemical Society (ACS) | October 30th, 2024

Organic Chemical Contaminants in Water System Infrastructure Following Wildfire

American Chemical Society (ACS) | February 1st, 2022

Wildfires have destroyed multiple residential communities in California in recent years. After fires in 2017 and 2018, high concentrations of benzene and other volatile o

Wildfires have destroyed multiple residential communities in California in recent years. After fires in 2017 and 2018, high concentrations of benzene and other volatile organic compounds (VOCs) were found in public drinking water systems in fire-affected areas. The sources of the contamination and appropriate remediation have been urgent matters of investigation. This study characterizes target and nontarget VOCs and semivolatile organic compounds (SVOCs) in water from a highly contaminated service line after the 2018 Camp Fire (Paradise, CA). Ninety-five organic compounds were identified or tentatively identified in the service line. Laboratory combustion experiments with drinking water pipes made of polyvinyl chloride (PVC), cross-linked polyethylene, and high-density polyethylene and a review of the literature were used to evaluate potential sources of the detected chemicals. Among the service line contaminants were 32 compounds associated with PVC pyrolysis and 28 organic compounds also associated with the pyrolysis of polyethylene. The service line sample also contained 55 compounds associated with uncontrolled burning of biomass and waste materials. The findings support hypotheses that wildfires can contaminate drinking water systems both by thermal damage to plastic pipes and intrusion of smoke. Residual chlorine disinfectants in the water system modify the contaminant distribution observed.

Post-fire evapotranspiration estimates in ground truth limited environments

Elsevier | June 16th, 2025

Wildfires are catastrophic events with increasing incidence and severity, especially in Mediterranean climates like California. Wildfires can drastically change the hydro

Wildfires are catastrophic events with increasing incidence and severity, especially in Mediterranean climates like California. Wildfires can drastically change the hydrologic components of a watershed and require consistent and reliable data to monitor recovery. With the upcoming retirement of the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), a reliable evapotranspiration (ET) product at the subcatchment scale is necessary to monitor longitudinal ET, particularly post-fire. We evaluate NASA JPL's ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS), MODIS, and the North American Land Data Assimilation System phase 2 (NLDAS-2) to assess performance in longitudinal evapotranspiration (ET) estimates and post-fire ET change detection using correlation analysis and linear regression for twelve subwatersheds located within the August Complex Fire (August 2020) in Trinity County, the Delta Fire (September 2018) in Shasta and Trinity Counties, and the Creek Fire (September 2020) in Fresno County for a four-year period. We found that MODIS and ECOSTRESS showed the strongest correlation in daily ET estimates (mean r = 0.56), while correlations between ECOSTRESS-NLDAS-2 (r = 0.06) and MODIS-NLDAS-2 (r = 0.30) were notably weaker. However, ECOSTRESS data availability constrained post-fire change detection and annual ET sum assessments. Its higher spatial resolution and correlation with MODIS have potential for finer-scale model parameterization of post-fire landcover changes, particularly vegetation loss in place of MODIS. NLDAS-2 can be useful in monthly and annual patterns at larger scales. By comparing ECOSTRESS with established platforms of ET estimation, we validate ECOSTRESS as a tool for post-fire ET monitoring, especially in areas where ground truth data is unavailable. These findings can allow for more informed and effective land management decisions, particularly in wildfire and vegetation monitoring.

Post‐Fire Sediment Yield from a Western Sierra Nevada Watershed Burned by the 2021 Caldor Fire

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | January 7th, 2025

Property Prices in Peril

First Street | February 3rd, 2025

Regional desirability is being reshaped by chronic changes in climate across the country: coastal areas are increasingly threatened by sea level rise, while inland region

Regional desirability is being reshaped by chronic changes in climate across the country: coastal areas are increasingly threatened by sea level rise, while inland regions face intensifying heat waves, droughts, and floods. At the same time, the increased frequency and intensity of natural disasters has triggered unprecedented levels of property damage, prompting insurance providers to increase premiums or withdraw coverage from high-risk areas altogether. Chronic climate changes create additional financial burdens – from surging utility bills to increased maintenance costs. Ultimately, environmental stressors and associated rising homeownership costs are together reshaping home values. With residential real estate representing one of the largest economic sectors in the country, these shifts will result in serious impacts that ripple through communities. Understanding these dynamics is crucial as public and private stakeholders navigate an increasingly complex landscape where housing decisions must balance traditional location value drivers with new climate realities.

Recent strengthening of eastern Pacific ENSO in the last millennium paleorecord

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | August 27th, 2026

The Pacific El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) generates climate extremes that endanger ecosystems, infrastructure, and human well-being worldwide. The response of th

The Pacific El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) generates climate extremes that endanger ecosystems, infrastructure, and human well-being worldwide. The response of this system to climate warming is poorly constrained, due both to data scarcity and uncertainties in climate models. The geochemistry of Galápagos coral skeletons across the past millennium reveals a large recent increase in interannual variability of sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific compared to existing paleorecords that exceeds simulated natural variability. This increase parallels rising global temperature and results from stronger El Niño events. Central Pacific coral data also show increased variability, although less distinctly than in the Galápagos. Our results provide long-term context for understanding ENSO variability trends, with troubling implications for climate extremes.

Redefining expectations for urban water supply systems to fight wildfires

Springer Nature | March 5th, 2025

When considering massive new costs for urban water systems to fight wildfires, we also need to look hard at the distribution of benefits from these investments, and desig

When considering massive new costs for urban water systems to fight wildfires, we also need to look hard at the distribution of benefits from these investments, and design legal and fiscal cost recovery mechanisms that align with those benefits. In the service area for the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, greatly expanding capacity for water supply and fire-flow for the highest-elevation areas of the city would be delivering a benefit to communities that are much wealthier, on average, than the rest of the city. There is danger of placing a burden on less-resourced households to pay for the protection of well-resourced households, which would compound existing and profound environmental inequities in the city.

Shifts in MJO behavior enhance predictability of subseasonal precipitation whiplashes

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | April 28th, 2025

Trends in tree cover change over three decades related to interannual climate variability and wildfire in California

Institute of Physics (IOP) | January 19th, 2025

The U.S. State of California has experienced frequent drought events, hotter temperatures and other disruptions to the climate system whose effects on ecosystems have bee

The U.S. State of California has experienced frequent drought events, hotter temperatures and other disruptions to the climate system whose effects on ecosystems have been widely reported in recent decades. Studies primarily confined to specific vegetation communities or species, individual drought incidents, or analysis over a relatively short intervals, has limited our understanding of the broad-scale effects on tree cover and the spatiotemporal variability of effects across broader regions. We focused analysis on multi-annual land cover and land surface change to assess patterns and trends in tree cover loss in tree-dominated Californian ecoregions from 1986 to 2019. The top three years of total tree cover loss for the state were 2018 (1901 km2), 2015 (1556 km2), and 2008 (1549 km2). Overall, annual tree cover loss had upward trends. Tree cover loss rapidly surged later in the study period and was apparently driven by climate stress and wildfires. Underlying geographic variability was apparent in both non-fire and fire-related tree cover loss that sharply increased during hotter multi-year droughts. The increasingly hotter and drier climate conditions were associated with significant increases in fire-induced mortality. Our findings indicate that a possible effect of future hotter and drier climate would lead to further tree cover loss, thereby endangering California's ecosystem goods and services. Geographic variability in tree cover trends indicates that ecoregion-specific mitigation and adaptation strategies would be useful to conserve the region's forest resources. Such strategies may benefit from consideration of historical disturbances, ecoregion's sensitivity to disturbance types, as well as potential ecoregion-specific climate-vegetation-fire feedbacks.