An assessment of future tidal marsh resilience in the San Francisco Estuary through modeling and quantifiable metrics of sustainability

Frontiers in Environmental Science (Frontiers) | November 25th, 2022

Quantitative, broadly applicable metrics of resilience are needed to effectively manage tidal marshes into the future. Here we quantified three metrics of temporal marsh

Quantitative, broadly applicable metrics of resilience are needed to effectively manage tidal marshes into the future. Here we quantified three metrics of temporal marsh resilience: time to marsh drowning, time to marsh tipping point, and the probability of a regime shift, defined as the conditional probability of a transition to an alternative super-optimal, suboptimal, or drowned state. We used organic matter content (loss on ignition, LOI) and peat age combined with the Coastal Wetland Equilibrium Model (CWEM) to track wetland development and resilience under different sea-level rise scenarios in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta (Delta) of California. A 100-year hindcast of the model showed excellent agreement (R2 = 0.96) between observed (2.86 mm/year) and predicted vertical accretion rates (2.98 mm/year) and correctly predicted a recovery in LOI (R2 = 0.76) after the California Gold Rush. Vertical accretion in the tidal freshwater marshes of the Delta is dominated by organic production. The large elevation range of the vegetation combined with high relative marsh elevation provides Delta marshes with resilience and elevation capital sufficiently great to tolerate centenary sea-level rise (CLSR) as high as 200 cm. The initial relative elevation of a marsh was a strong determinant of marsh survival time and tipping point. For a Delta marsh of average elevation, the tipping point at which vertical accretion no longer keeps up with the rate of sea-level rise is 50 years or more. Simulated, triennial additions of 6 mm of sediment via episodic atmospheric rivers increased the proportion of marshes surviving from 51% to 72% and decreased the proportion drowning from 49% to 28%. Our temporal metrics provide critical time frames for adaptively managing marshes, restoring marshes with the best chance of survival, and seizing opportunities for establishing migration corridors, which are all essential for safeguarding future habitats for sensitive species.

An Assessment of Potential Severe Droughts in the Colorado River Basin

American Water Resources Association (AWRA) | September 15th, 2022

An evaluation of atmospheric rivers over the North Pacific in CMIP5 and their response to warming under RCP 8.5

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | November 13th, 2015

Landfalling atmospheric rivers over the North Pacific are evaluated in historical (1980–2005) simulations from 28 models participating in the fifth phase of the Couple

Landfalling atmospheric rivers over the North Pacific are evaluated in historical (1980–2005) simulations from 28 models participating in the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) and compared to the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications and ERA-Interim reanalyses. Landfalling dates are identified as having spatially elongated high wind and moisture features in physical proximity to the coastline. Model performance relative to reanalysis is found to be quite variable. The majority can resolve the spatial structure of landfalling events, but few correctly resolve the frequency distribution, interannual variability in number and amplitude of moisture flux, and median landfalling latitude. The response of a subset of high-performing models to projected warming at the end of the 21st century is investigated using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 (2070–2100) projections. Selected models show a broadening of the frequency distribution, with the largest increase in frequency occurring equatorward of peak historical frequency. While there is a robust increase in AR-related moisture transport compared to the historical period, this increase is not linked to more extreme AR events within the context of the projected future climate. The occurrence of years with many AR dates is greater at the end of the 21st century than during the historical period. The equatorward increase in peak historical frequency is colocated with increases in the 850 and 250 hPa zonal winds. The response in moisture flux to warming is mostly thermodynamic, but equatorward of its peak distribution, it is dominated by a dynamic response.

An Integrated Surface Water-Groundwater Interaction Model for the Carmel River

California State University, Monterey Bay | April 30th, 2010

The Carmel River supplies fresh water to the residents of the Monterey Peninsula within the water district served by the California American Water company (Cal-Am). The S

The Carmel River supplies fresh water to the residents of the Monterey Peninsula within the water district served by the California American Water company (Cal-Am). The State Water Resources Control Board, in 1995, ordered that Cal-Am reduce their annual diversions from the Carmel River Watershed to within legal right (3,376 acre-feet per year). An alternative water source to the Carmel River has yet to be determined, and as a result, Cal-Am must continue to divert more water than their legal entitlement. The current magnitude of diversions has a negative impact on the spawning and migrating habitat of Steelhead (Oncorhynchus mykiss). Existing software in the Tarsier Environmental Modeling Framework was used to model the spatial distribution of surface water along the Carmel River. The model simulated the flow of water downstream from catchment area to the Pacific Ocean. The river channel was represented by a network data set comprised of links, representing individual reaches of the river, connected by nodes. Prior to my work, systematic error in the model was thought to be partially the result of the model lacking a simulation of the interactions between the surface water and the underlying aquifer. A groundwater sub-model was developed to correct for the systematic error. The groundwater sub-model simulated the movement of water between the river channel and the aquifer. Stock variables representing a shallow and deep aquifer were added to each link of the network data set. Simulated water in the surface water stock of each link percolates to these aquifer stocks until the groundwater reaches aquifer capacity, allowing surface water to continue flowing downstream. The model also allows the lateral flow of groundwater according to Darcy’s Law. Quantitative and qualitative analysis of model output compared to observed data showed an increase in model accuracy. Quantitatively, a Nash- Sutcliff Coefficient was improved from 0.88 to 0.97 with the addition of the groundwater model. Qualitatively, a visualization of the longitudinal profile of the river system showed the simulated aquifer controlling the surface flow. A hypothetical application of this model is presented where reducing the pumping rate from the aquifer allowed the wetted river channel to increase by 2.5 km. Future work on the model should include a reservoir sub-model and accounting for spatial variability in the precipitation throughout the catchment area. With these improvements it will be possible to improve predictions of the spatial distribution of surface water along the Carmel River given hypothetical scenarios such as the rate and spatial distribution of pumping from the Carmel Aquifer. Using these simulations to inform decisions of river management could benefit all stakeholders of the river.

An overview of multi-dimensional models of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta

University of California, Davis (UC Davis) | December 1st, 2016

Over the past fifteen years, the development and application of models in San Francisco Bay and the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta has transformed our ability to analyze an

Over the past fifteen years, the development and application of models in San Francisco Bay and the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta has transformed our ability to analyze and understand the underlying physics of the system. Initial applications of three-dimensional models focused primarily on salt intrusion, and provided a valuable resource for investigating how sea level rise and levee failures in the Delta could influence water quality in the Delta in the future. However, multi-dimensional models have also provided significant insights into some of the fundamental biological relationships that have shaped our thinking about the system by exploring the relationship between X2, flow, fish abundance, and the low salinity zone. Through modeling, it has been possible to move beyond salinity to understand how large-scale changes to the system are likely to affect sediment dynamics, and to assess the potential effects on species that rely on turbidity for habitat. Lastly, the coupling of multi-dimensional hydrodynamic models with particle tracking models has led to advances in our thinking about residence time, the retention of food organisms, the effect of south Delta exports on larval entrainment, and the pathways and behaviors of salmonids that travel through the Delta. This chapter provides an overview of these recent advances and how they have increased our understanding of the distribution and movement of fish and food organisms. The applications presented serve as a guide to the current state of the science of Delta modeling and provide examples of how we can use multidimensional models to predict how future Delta conditions will affect both fish and water supply.  

An Update of the Death Valley Regional Groundwater Flow System Transient Model, Nevada and California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | October 31st, 2016

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has revised the regional-scale Death Valley regional groundwater flow system (DVRFS) numerical model with new data and interpretations s

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has revised the regional-scale Death Valley regional groundwater flow system (DVRFS) numerical model with new data and interpretations since the original numerical flow model was published in 2004 (Belcher (2004); re-published as Belcher and Sweetkind [2010]). Since the original publication of the DVRFS flow model, additional data have been collected and interpretations have been made. Cooperators such as the Bureau of Land Management, National Park Service, U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, the Department of Energy, and Nye County, Nevada, recognized a need to update the existing regional numerical flow model to maintain its viability as a groundwater management tool for regional stakeholders. For the purposes of this report, the version of the DVRFS numerical flow model documented in Belcher and Sweetkind (2010) and Faunt, Blainey, and others (2010) is designated as DVRFS v. 1.0. The updated version, as presented in this report, is referred to as DVRFS v. 2.0. Knowledge of basin water balances and the magnitude of interbasin groundwater flow is the basis for regional groundwater management and water-resource planning in the Great Basin of Nevada (Scott and others, 1971). Rapid population growth, arid conditions, and increased water use have led to development of available groundwater resources. Groundwater use in some alluvial-fill basins has resulted in continued water-level declines and land subsidence. Adjacent bedrock aquifers are increasingly being targeted for additional development. Such groundwater development may potentially impact local and regional water quantity and quality, existing water rights, and wildlife habitats. An understanding of hydrogeologic processes that control the rate and direction of groundwater flow in southern Nevada is necessary to assess the potential effects of any proposed large-scale groundwater development. Potential water-resource conflicts exist because of disparate interests in the region, particularly with respect to the development of groundwater resources to meet agricultural, municipal, and industrial water demand and the need to protect habitat for endangered and threatened species. Water demands in the Amargosa Farms area from agricultural and suburban development, and rapidly urbanizing areas in Las Vegas and Pahrump Valleys place increasing pressure on existing groundwater resources. In addition, several solar-energy facilities have been proposed within the Death Valley region; water demands for these facilities will vary. Natural groundwater discharge at springs and seeps sustains habitat for numerous species, many of which are threatened, endangered, or otherwise considered sensitive. In 2004, the USGS documented a calibrated numerical flow model of the DVRFS (Belcher, 2004). The model, DVRFS v. 1.0, incorporated elements of several precursor numerical models but defined the boundaries of the regional flow system slightly different than in previous versions. The model simulates transient groundwater flow conditions in the DVRFS from 1913 through 1998. The report was subsequently revised and published as a USGS Professional Paper (Belcher and Sweetkind, 2010). Since release of DVRFS v. 1.0 in 2004, continued use of the model by cooperators, stakeholders, and interested parties in the region has demonstrated the need to improve specific aspects (such as the flow into northern Yucca Flat and parts of the Amargosa Desert), to update it with more recently acquired geologic and hydrologic data, and to extend the simulation period.

Analysis and simulation of regional subsidence accompanying groundwater abstraction and compaction of susceptible aquifer systems in the USA

Mexican Geological Society (Sociedad Geológica Mexicana) | January 17th, 2013

Regional aquifer-system compaction and land subsidence accompanying groundwater abstraction in susceptible aquifer systems in the USA is a challenge for managing groundwa

Regional aquifer-system compaction and land subsidence accompanying groundwater abstraction in susceptible aquifer systems in the USA is a challenge for managing groundwater resources and mitigating associated hazards. Developments in the assessment of regional subsidence provide more information to constrain analyses and simulation of aquifer-system compaction. Current popular approaches to simulating vertical aquifer-system deformation (compaction), such as those embodied in the aquitard drainage model and the MODFLOW subsidence packages, have proven useful from the perspective of regional groundwater resources assessment. However, these approaches inadequately address related local-scale hazards—ground ruptures and damages to engineered structures on the land surface arising from tensional stresses and strains accompanying groundwater abstraction. This paper presents a brief overview of the general approaches taken by the U.S. Geological Survey toward understanding aquifer-system compaction and subsidence with regard to a) identifying the affected aquifer systems; b) making regional assessments; c) analyzing the governing processes; and d) simulating historical and future groundwater flow and subsidence conditions. Limitations and shortcomings of these approaches, as well as future challenges also are discussed 

Analysis of Groundwater Basin Yield, Upper Santa Clara River Groundwater Basin, East Subbasin, Los Angeles County, California

Castaic Lake Water Agency | August 15th, 2005

This report presents an evaluation of the long-term sustainability of existing groundwater management practices in the Santa Clarita Valley, located in northwestern Los

This report presents an evaluation of the long-term sustainability of existing groundwater management practices in the Santa Clarita Valley, located in northwestern Los Angeles County, California. The groundwater system in the Santa Clarita Valley is identified by the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) as the Santa Clara River Valley Groundwater Basin, East Subbasin (Basin No. 4-4.07) and lies within the DWR-designated Upper Santa Clara River Hydrologic Area. Groundwater in the basin is pumped from a shallow Alluvial Aquifer and deeper groundwater resources that are present in an older, underlying unit called the Saugus Formation. Most groundwater pumping is by the local water purveyors (the Upper Basin Water Purveyors [herein referred to as the Purveyors1]) for municipal uses (in the range of approximately 23,000 to 28,000 acre-feet per year [AF/yr] in recent years), with some continuing pumping by private landowners, primarily for irrigation uses (approximately 15,000 to 16,000 AF/yr in recent years). The Purveyors also have access to other sources of water, including imported State Water Project (SWP) water, groundwater banking outside the basin, recycled water, short-term water exchanges, and dry-year water purchase programs (Luhdorff & Scalmanini Consulting Engineers [LSCE], 2005a). The water management practices of the Purveyors call for maximizing the use of Alluvial Aquifer and imported water during years of normal or above-normal availability of these supplies, and limiting the use of the Saugus Formation during these periods, then temporarily increasing Saugus Formation pumping during years when supplemental imported water supplies are significantly reduced because of drought conditions. The evaluation of the Purveyors’ current groundwater management practices has been performed using a detailed numerical groundwater flow model of the basin. The model, called the Santa Clarita Valley Groundwater Model (Regional Model), simulates the occurrence and flow of groundwater, including its interaction with streams in the area. The Regional Model has been developed for the Purveyors as a tool for the analysis of groundwater management options in the context of future water demands and water supply conditions in the valley. Among the objectives in developing the model were (1) to be able to evaluate the long-term sustainability (yield) of the Alluvial and Saugus aquifer systems under a range of existing and potential future water resource management conditions, and (2) to facilitate general management of water quantity and water quality issues. Figure 1-1 is a map showing the area simulated by the model (tables and figures are located at the end of each section).  

Analysis of the Carmel Valley Alluvial Ground-Water Basin, Monterey County, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | June 14th, 1984

A two-dimensional, finite-element, digital model was developed for the Carmel Valley alluvial ground-water basin using measured, computed, and estimated discharge

A two-dimensional, finite-element, digital model was developed for the Carmel Valley alluvial ground-water basin using measured, computed, and estimated discharge and recharge data for the basin. Discharge data included evapotranspiration by phreatophytes and agricultural, municipal, and domestic pumpage. Recharge data included river leakage, tributary runoff, and pumping return flow. Recharge from subsurface boundary flow and rainfall infiltration was assumed to be insignificant. From 1974 through 1978, the annual pumping rate ranged from 5,900 to 9,100 acre-feet per year with 55 percent allotted to municipal use principally exported out of the valley, 44 percent to agricultural use, and 1 percent to domestic use. The pumpage return flow within the valley ranged from 900 to 1,500 acre-feet per year. The aquifer properties of transmissivity (about 5,900 feet squared per day) and of the storage coefficient (0.19) were estimated from an average alluvial thickness of 75 feet and from less well-defined data on specific capacity and grain-size distribution. During calibration the values estimated for hydraulic conductivity and storage coefficient for the lower valley were reduced because of the smaller grain size there. The river characteristics were based on field and laboratory analyses of hydraulic conductivity and on altitude survey data. The model is intended principally for simulation of flow conditions using monthly time steps. Time variations in transmissivity and short-term, high- recharge potential are included in the model. The years 1974 through 1978 (including "pre-" and "post-" drought) were selected because of the extreme fluctuation in water levels between the low levels measured during dry years and the above-normal water levels measured during the preceding and following wet years. Also, during this time more hydrologic information was available. Significantly, computed water levels were generally within a few feet of the measured levels, and computed flows were close to gaged river flows for this simulation. However, the nonuniqueness of solutions with respect to different sets of data indicates the model does not necessarily validate the correctness of the individual variables. The model might be improved with additional knowledge of the distribution of confining sediments in the lower end of the valley and the aquifer properties above and below them. The solution algorithm could account for confinement or partial confinement in the lower end of the valley plus contributions from the Tularcitos aquifer.

Anthropogenic warming impacts on California snowpack during drought

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | March 15th, 2017

Sierra Nevada climate and snowpack is simulated during the period of extreme drought from 2011 to 2015 and compared to an identical simulation except for the removal of t

Sierra Nevada climate and snowpack is simulated during the period of extreme drought from 2011 to 2015 and compared to an identical simulation except for the removal of the twentieth century anthropogenic warming. Anthropogenic warming reduced average snowpack levels by 25%, with middle‐to‐low elevations experiencing reductions between 26 and 43%. In terms of event frequency, return periods associated with anomalies in 4 year 1 April snow water equivalent are estimated to have doubled, and possibly quadrupled, due to past warming. We also estimate effects of future anthropogenic warmth on snowpack during a drought similar to that of 2011–2015. Further snowpack declines of 60–85% are expected, depending on emissions scenario. The return periods associated with future snowpack levels are estimated to range from millennia to much longer. Therefore, past human emissions of greenhouse gases are already negatively impacting statewide water resources during drought, and much more severe impacts are likely to be inevitable.