Human influence on joint changes in temperature, rainfall and continental aridity

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | July 6th, 2020

Despite the pervasive impact of drought on human and natural systems, the large-scale mechanisms conducive to regional drying remain poorly understood. Here we us

Despite the pervasive impact of drought on human and natural systems, the large-scale mechanisms conducive to regional drying remain poorly understood. Here we use a multivariate approach to identify two distinct externally forced fingerprints from multiple ensembles of Earth system model simulations. The leading fingerprint, FM1(x), is characterized by global warming, intensified wet–dry patterns and progressive large-scale continental aridification, largely driven by multidecadal increases in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The second fingerprint, FM2(x), captures a pronounced interhemispheric temperature contrast, associated meridional shifts in the intertropical convergence zone and correlated anomalies in precipitation and aridity over California, the Sahel and India. FM2(x) exhibits nonlinear temporal behaviour: the intertropical convergence zone moves southwards before 1975 in response to increases in hemispherically asymmetric sulfate aerosol emissions, and it shifts northwards after 1975 due to reduced sulfur dioxide emissions and the GHG-induced warming of Northern Hemisphere landmasses. Both fingerprints are statistically identifiable in observations of joint changes in temperature, rainfall and aridity during 1950–2014. We show that the reliable simulation of these changes requires combined forcing by GHGs, direct and indirect effects of aerosols, and large volcanic eruptions. Our results suggest that GHG-induced aridification may be modulated regionally by future reductions in sulfate aerosol emissions.

Human-induced and natural carbon storage in floodplains of the Central Valley of California

Science of the Total Environment (Elsevier) | February 15th, 2019

Active floodplains can putatively store large amounts of organic carbon (SOC) in subsoils originating from catchment erosion processes with subsequent floodplain depositi

Active floodplains can putatively store large amounts of organic carbon (SOC) in subsoils originating from catchment erosion processes with subsequent floodplain deposition. Our study focussed on the assessment of SOC pools associated with alluvial floodplain soils that are affected by human-induced changes in floodplain deposition and in situ SOC mineralisation due to land use change and drainage. We evaluated depth-dependent SOC contents based on 23 soil cores down to 3 m and 10 drillings down to 7 m in a floodplain area of the lower Cosumnes River. An estimate of 266 Mg C ha−1 or about 59% of the entire SOC stored within the 7 m profiles was found in the upper 2 m. Most profiles (n = 25) contained discrete buried A horizons at depths of approximately 0.8 m. These profiles had up to 130% higher SOC stocks. The mean δ13C of all deep soil profiles clearly indicated that arable land use has already altered the stable isotopic signature in the first meter of the profile. Radiocarbon dating showed that the 14C age in the buried horizon was younger than in overlaying soils indicating a substantial sedimentation phase for the overlaying soils. An additional analysis of total mercury contents in the soil profiles indicated that this sedimentation was associated with upstream hydraulic gold mining after the 1850s. In summary, deep alluvial soils in floodplains store large amounts of SOC not yet accounted for in global carbon models. Historic data give evidence that large amounts of sediment were transported into the floodplains of most rivers of the Central Valley and deposited over organically rich topsoil, which promoted the stabilization of SOC, and needs to be considered to improve our understanding of the human-induced interference with C cycling.

Human-Induced Changes in the Hydrology of the Western United States

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | February 22nd, 2008

Observations have shown that the hydrological cycle of the western United States changed significantly over the last half of the 20th century. We present a regi

Observations have shown that the hydrological cycle of the western United States changed significantly over the last half of the 20th century. We present a regional, multivariable climate change detection and attribution study, using a high-resolution hydrologic model forced by global climate models, focusing on the changes that have already affected this primarily arid region with a large and growing population. The results show that up to 60% of the climate-related trends of river flow, winter air temperature, and snow pack between 1950 and 1999 are human-induced. These results are robust to perturbation of study variates and methods. They portend, in conjunction with previous work, a coming crisis in water supply for the western United States.

Human-induced changes in wind, temperature and relative humidity during Santa Ana events

Climatic Change (Springer) | November 24th, 2011

The frequency and character of Southern California’s Santa Ana wind events are investigated within a 12-km-resolution downscaling of late-20th and mid-21st century time

The frequency and character of Southern California’s Santa Ana wind events are investigated within a 12-km-resolution downscaling of late-20th and mid-21st century time periods of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model global climate change scenario run. The number of Santa Ana days per winter season is approximately 20% fewer in the mid 21st century compared to the late 20th century. Since the only systematic and sustained difference between these two periods is the level of anthropogenic forcing, this effect is anthropogenic in origin. In both time periods, Santa Ana winds are partly katabatically-driven by a temperature difference between the cold wintertime air pooling in the desert against coastal mountains and the adjacent warm air over the ocean. However, this katabatic mechanism is significantly weaker during the mid 21st century time period. This occurs because of the well-documented differential warming associated with transient climate change, with more warming in the desert interior than over the ocean. Thus the mechanism responsible for the decrease in Santa Ana frequency originates from a well-known aspect of the climate response to increasing greenhouse gases, but cannot be understood or simulated without mesoscale atmospheric dynamics. In addition to the change in Santa Ana frequency, we investigate changes during Santa Anas in two other meteorological variables known to be relevant to fire weather conditions—relative humidity and temperature. We find a decrease in the relative humidity and an increase in temperature. Both these changes would favor fire. A fire behavior model accounting for changes in wind, temperature, and relative humidity simultaneously is necessary to draw firm conclusions about future fire risk and growth associated with Santa Ana events. While our results are somewhat limited by a relatively small sample size, they illustrate an observed and explainable regional change in climate due to plausible mesoscale processes.

Hydroclimate Report Water Year 2018

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | March 31st, 2020

Water year (WY) 2018 whipsawed from dry to wet and added high heat for the summer. The WY ended with 82 percent of average precipitation in the Northern Sierra and 20 per

Water year (WY) 2018 whipsawed from dry to wet and added high heat for the summer. The WY ended with 82 percent of average precipitation in the Northern Sierra and 20 percent below average April-July streamflow in the Sacramento River and 19 percent below average for the San Joaquin River. Peak statewide snowpack was only 60 percent of average. While precipitation and stream flow were below average, the big story of the 2018 WY were record temperatures that lead to several unprecedented and deadly wildfires in the state.

Hydroclimate Report Water Year 2019

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | June 30th, 2020

Water year (WY) 2019 continued to demonstrate effects of climate change with greater variability and more extremes. Hydroclimate extremes presented themselves with atmosp

Water year (WY) 2019 continued to demonstrate effects of climate change with greater variability and more extremes. Hydroclimate extremes presented themselves with atmospheric rivers causing both flooding and heavy snowpack. Before the wet winter and spring months, California experienced a very dry fall in where the devastating Camp Fire started on November 8, 2018 in Butte County. Fall transitioned to into a wet winter with 64 percent of the WY total for the DWR Northern 8-station index falling in the three months of January, February and March. Temperatures went from extreme cold in February to hot in August as the year progressed from winter to summer.

Hydroclimate Report Water Year 2020

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | August 31st, 2021

Water Year (WY) 2020 continued to demonstrate the climate change narrative of greater variability and more extremes. In both precipitation and temperature, there were ne

Water Year (WY) 2020 continued to demonstrate the climate change narrative of greater variability and more extremes. In both precipitation and temperature, there were new extremes with a very dry February and very hot end to the water year. Late fall precipitation onset continued with the first significant storm of the year arriving in late November. The WY ended with 67 percent of average precipitation statewide and 62 percent of average in the Northern Sierra. For runoff, the Sacramento Basin had 66 percent of average April-July streamflow while the San Joaquin Basin had 58 percent of average. Peak statewide snowpack was 62 percent of average reaching that point in early April with a late season storm providing some offset to the winter’s dryness. February was one of the big stories of WY 2020 with record low precipitation. In a year of extremes, August and September also contributed record warmth for the month including a 130-degree Fahrenheit reading at Death Valley on August 16, 2020. This observation, if verified by the World Meteorological Organization, would be one of the hottest daily temperature maximums recorded on Earth. Several cities set new records for days above 90 degrees as well.

Hydroclimate Report Water Year 2021

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | December 31st, 2022

Water year (WY) 2021 added to the climate change narrative with extreme dryness leading to record setting drought conditions. In both precipitation and temperature, there

Water year (WY) 2021 added to the climate change narrative with extreme dryness leading to record setting drought conditions. In both precipitation and temperature, there were new extremes with a record dry and warm spring being most notable. Late fall onset occurred again this year arriving in late November starting the seasonal snowpack on very dry soils. The WY ended with 48 percent of average precipitation statewide making it the second driest year in 126 years of record. It was also second warmest for statewide average temperature. For two-year totals, WY 2021 set a record, recording less precipitation than WY 1977. There was only one significant storm in the WY in late January which included low elevation snow and very strong damaging winds. The April 1 statewide snowpack registered 62% of average. Peak snowpack at 64% of average occurred the week before April 1. Runoff from the snowpack was far below expectations due to the dry antecedent conditions and record dry and warm spring. The lack of runoff resulted in the need for emergency drought response measures.

Hydroclimate Report Water Year 2022

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | October 1st, 2024

Hydroclimate response of spring ecosystems to a two‐stage Younger Dryas event in western North America

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | May 5th, 2022

The Younger Dryas (YD) climate event is the preeminent example of abrupt climate change in the recent geologic past. Climate conditions during the YD were spatially compl

The Younger Dryas (YD) climate event is the preeminent example of abrupt climate change in the recent geologic past. Climate conditions during the YD were spatially complex, and high-resolution sediment cores in the North Atlantic, western Europe, and East Asia have revealed it unfolded in two distinct stages, including an initial stable climatic period between ~ 12.9 and 12.2 ka associated with a weakened Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and a second phase characterized by variable conditions until 11.7 ka as the AMOC recovered. Decades of investigations into the climate of western North America during the YD have failed to identify this stepped phenomenon. Here we present hydroclimate data from paleospring deposits in Death Valley National Park (California, USA) that demonstrate unequivocal evidence of two-stage partitioning within the YD event. High groundwater levels supported persistent and long-lived spring ecosystems between ~ 13.0 and 12.2 ka, which were immediately replaced by alternating wet and dry environments until ~ 11.8 ka. These results establish the mid-YD climate transition extended into western North America at approximately the same time it was recorded by hydrologic systems elsewhere in the Northern Hemisphere and show that even short-lived changes in the AMOC can have profound consequences for ecosystems worldwide.