Hot Drought of Summer 2023 in Southwestern North America

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | September 17th, 2025

Hot droughts, or compound drought and heatwaves, have a significant impact on arid regions in southwestern North America (SWNA). In the summer of 2023, SWNA experienced u

Hot droughts, or compound drought and heatwaves, have a significant impact on arid regions in southwestern North America (SWNA). In the summer of 2023, SWNA experienced unusually intense hot droughts during both the daytime and nighttime, with their severity amplified three to five times above values during the prior four decades. Over this period, a significant increase was found in the coupling between nighttime and daytime conditions at local scales and across different regions of the SWNA. The hot drought was due to a suppressed North American monsoon (NAM) in response to synoptic-scale subsidence and moisture divergence. Nevertheless, we identified a remote connection between soil moisture in upwind areas and hot drought conditions in downwind regions across the US-Mexico border. Our findings indicate that hot droughts need to be analyzed over complete diurnal cycles and over regions that are connected through atmospheric pathways to improve their prediction, response, and mitigation.

Hot extremes have become drier in the United States Southwest

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | June 17th, 2021

The impacts of summer heat extremes are mediated by humidity. Increases in temperatures due to human-caused climate change are generally expected to increase specific hum

The impacts of summer heat extremes are mediated by humidity. Increases in temperatures due to human-caused climate change are generally expected to increase specific humidity; however, it remains unclear how humidity extremes may change, especially in climatologically dry (low-humidity) regions. Here we show that specific humidity on dry days during summer (defined here as July–September) has decreased over the past seven decades in the United States Southwest, and that the greatest decreases co-occur with the hottest temperatures. Hot, dry summers have anomalously low evapotranspiration that is linked to low summer soil moisture. The recent decrease in summer soil moisture is explained by declines in June soil moisture, whereas the interannual variability is controlled by summer precipitation. Future projections of hot, dry days in the Southwest are uncertain due to the large spread in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) trends in soil moisture and precipitation through 2100.

How unusual is the 2012–2014 California drought?

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | December 30th, 2014

For the past three years (2012–2014), California has experienced the most severe drought conditions in its last century. But how unusual is this event? Here we use two

For the past three years (2012–2014), California has experienced the most severe drought conditions in its last century. But how unusual is this event? Here we use two paleoclimate reconstructions of drought and precipitation for Central and Southern California to place this current event in the context of the last millennium. We demonstrate that while 3 year periods of persistent below-average soil moisture are not uncommon, the current event is the most severe drought in the last 1200 years, with single year (2014) and accumulated moisture deficits worse than any previous continuous span of dry years. Tree ring chronologies extended through the 2014 growing season reveal that precipitation during the drought has been anomalously low but not outside the range of natural variability. The current California drought is exceptionally severe in the context of at least the last millennium and is driven by reduced though not unprecedented precipitation and record high temperatures.

Human contributions to evapotranspiration mitigate swings in dry-to-wet year transitions

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | January 9th, 2026

California’s food and economic security depends on water availability, particularly under increasingly extreme climate scenarios. A key component of the water balance i

California’s food and economic security depends on water availability, particularly under increasingly extreme climate scenarios. A key component of the water balance is evapotranspiration, the combination of soil and surface evaporation and plant transpiration. Evapotranspiration is influenced by natural drivers (e.g., climate, vegetation cover) and human intervention (e.g., irrigation, land management). Here, we analyze the transition between one of California’s driest years (2022) to an exceptionally wet year (2023) to assess evapotranspiration responses to climate extremes. Despite increased precipitation, total statewide evapotranspiration changed less than 10%. In 2022, human contributions accounted for 30% of statewide evapotranspiration and 80% in managed lands. In 2023, natural evapotranspiration increased, and human contributions fell by 30%, yet still comprised nearly 50% of evapotranspiration in managed areas. Our findings underscore the enduring role of human activity on California’s hydrology, even during wet years, and demonstrate a framework to separate natural and anthropogenic controls on evapotranspiration.

Human emissions drive recent trends in North Pacific climate variations

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | August 14th, 2025

Click here for a plain language discussion of the article by co-authors Pedro N. DiNezio and Timothy M. Shanahan

Click here for a plain language discussion of the article by co-authors Pedro N. DiNezio and Timothy M. Shanahan

Human Impacts Dominate Global Loss of Lake Ecosystem Resilience

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | June 5th, 2024

Human influence on joint changes in temperature, rainfall and continental aridity

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | July 6th, 2020

Despite the pervasive impact of drought on human and natural systems, the large-scale mechanisms conducive to regional drying remain poorly understood. Here we us

Despite the pervasive impact of drought on human and natural systems, the large-scale mechanisms conducive to regional drying remain poorly understood. Here we use a multivariate approach to identify two distinct externally forced fingerprints from multiple ensembles of Earth system model simulations. The leading fingerprint, FM1(x), is characterized by global warming, intensified wet–dry patterns and progressive large-scale continental aridification, largely driven by multidecadal increases in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The second fingerprint, FM2(x), captures a pronounced interhemispheric temperature contrast, associated meridional shifts in the intertropical convergence zone and correlated anomalies in precipitation and aridity over California, the Sahel and India. FM2(x) exhibits nonlinear temporal behaviour: the intertropical convergence zone moves southwards before 1975 in response to increases in hemispherically asymmetric sulfate aerosol emissions, and it shifts northwards after 1975 due to reduced sulfur dioxide emissions and the GHG-induced warming of Northern Hemisphere landmasses. Both fingerprints are statistically identifiable in observations of joint changes in temperature, rainfall and aridity during 1950–2014. We show that the reliable simulation of these changes requires combined forcing by GHGs, direct and indirect effects of aerosols, and large volcanic eruptions. Our results suggest that GHG-induced aridification may be modulated regionally by future reductions in sulfate aerosol emissions.

Human-induced and natural carbon storage in floodplains of the Central Valley of California

Science of the Total Environment (Elsevier) | February 15th, 2019

Active floodplains can putatively store large amounts of organic carbon (SOC) in subsoils originating from catchment erosion processes with subsequent floodplain depositi

Active floodplains can putatively store large amounts of organic carbon (SOC) in subsoils originating from catchment erosion processes with subsequent floodplain deposition. Our study focussed on the assessment of SOC pools associated with alluvial floodplain soils that are affected by human-induced changes in floodplain deposition and in situ SOC mineralisation due to land use change and drainage. We evaluated depth-dependent SOC contents based on 23 soil cores down to 3 m and 10 drillings down to 7 m in a floodplain area of the lower Cosumnes River. An estimate of 266 Mg C ha−1 or about 59% of the entire SOC stored within the 7 m profiles was found in the upper 2 m. Most profiles (n = 25) contained discrete buried A horizons at depths of approximately 0.8 m. These profiles had up to 130% higher SOC stocks. The mean δ13C of all deep soil profiles clearly indicated that arable land use has already altered the stable isotopic signature in the first meter of the profile. Radiocarbon dating showed that the 14C age in the buried horizon was younger than in overlaying soils indicating a substantial sedimentation phase for the overlaying soils. An additional analysis of total mercury contents in the soil profiles indicated that this sedimentation was associated with upstream hydraulic gold mining after the 1850s. In summary, deep alluvial soils in floodplains store large amounts of SOC not yet accounted for in global carbon models. Historic data give evidence that large amounts of sediment were transported into the floodplains of most rivers of the Central Valley and deposited over organically rich topsoil, which promoted the stabilization of SOC, and needs to be considered to improve our understanding of the human-induced interference with C cycling.

Human-Induced Changes in the Hydrology of the Western United States

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | February 22nd, 2008

Observations have shown that the hydrological cycle of the western United States changed significantly over the last half of the 20th century. We present a regi

Observations have shown that the hydrological cycle of the western United States changed significantly over the last half of the 20th century. We present a regional, multivariable climate change detection and attribution study, using a high-resolution hydrologic model forced by global climate models, focusing on the changes that have already affected this primarily arid region with a large and growing population. The results show that up to 60% of the climate-related trends of river flow, winter air temperature, and snow pack between 1950 and 1999 are human-induced. These results are robust to perturbation of study variates and methods. They portend, in conjunction with previous work, a coming crisis in water supply for the western United States.

Human-induced changes in wind, temperature and relative humidity during Santa Ana events

Climatic Change (Springer) | November 24th, 2011

The frequency and character of Southern California’s Santa Ana wind events are investigated within a 12-km-resolution downscaling of late-20th and mid-21st century time

The frequency and character of Southern California’s Santa Ana wind events are investigated within a 12-km-resolution downscaling of late-20th and mid-21st century time periods of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model global climate change scenario run. The number of Santa Ana days per winter season is approximately 20% fewer in the mid 21st century compared to the late 20th century. Since the only systematic and sustained difference between these two periods is the level of anthropogenic forcing, this effect is anthropogenic in origin. In both time periods, Santa Ana winds are partly katabatically-driven by a temperature difference between the cold wintertime air pooling in the desert against coastal mountains and the adjacent warm air over the ocean. However, this katabatic mechanism is significantly weaker during the mid 21st century time period. This occurs because of the well-documented differential warming associated with transient climate change, with more warming in the desert interior than over the ocean. Thus the mechanism responsible for the decrease in Santa Ana frequency originates from a well-known aspect of the climate response to increasing greenhouse gases, but cannot be understood or simulated without mesoscale atmospheric dynamics. In addition to the change in Santa Ana frequency, we investigate changes during Santa Anas in two other meteorological variables known to be relevant to fire weather conditions—relative humidity and temperature. We find a decrease in the relative humidity and an increase in temperature. Both these changes would favor fire. A fire behavior model accounting for changes in wind, temperature, and relative humidity simultaneously is necessary to draw firm conclusions about future fire risk and growth associated with Santa Ana events. While our results are somewhat limited by a relatively small sample size, they illustrate an observed and explainable regional change in climate due to plausible mesoscale processes.