Precipitation in a warming world: Assessing projected hydro‐climate changes in California and other Mediterranean climate regions

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | September 7th, 2017

In most Mediterranean climate (MedClim) regions around the world, global climate models (GCMs) consistently project drier futures. In California, however, proj

In most Mediterranean climate (MedClim) regions around the world, global climate models (GCMs) consistently project drier futures. In California, however, projections of changes in annual precipitation are inconsistent. Analysis of daily precipitation in 30 GCMs reveals patterns in projected hydrometeorology over each of the five MedClm regions globally and helps disentangle their causes. MedClim regions, except California, are expected to dry via decreased frequency of winter precipitation. Frequencies of extreme precipitation, however, are projected to increase over the two MedClim regions of the Northern Hemisphere where projected warming is strongest. The increase in heavy and extreme precipitation is particularly robust over California, where it is only partially offset by projected decreases in low-medium intensity precipitation. Over the Mediterranean Basin, however, losses from decreasing frequency of low-medium-intensity precipitation are projected to dominate gains from intensifying projected extreme precipitation. MedClim regions are projected to become more sub-tropical, i.e. made dryer via pole-ward expanding subtropical subsidence. California’s more nuanced hydrological future reflects a precarious balance between the expanding subtropical high from the south and the south-eastward extending Aleutian low from the north-west. These dynamical mechanisms and thermodynamic moistening of the warming atmosphere result in increased horizontal water vapor transport, bolstering extreme precipitation events.

Precipitation Regime Change in Western North America: the Role of Atmospheric Rivers

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | July 9th, 2019

Daily precipitation in California has been projected to become less frequent even as precipitation extremes intensify, leading to uncertainty in the overall re

Daily precipitation in California has been projected to become less frequent even as precipitation extremes intensify, leading to uncertainty in the overall response to climate warming. Precipitation extremes are historically associated with Atmospheric Rivers (ARs). Sixteen global climate modelsare evaluated for realism in modeled historical AR behavior and contribution of the resulting dailyprecipitation to annual total precipitation over Western North America. The five most realistic models display consistent changes in future AR behavior, constraining the spread of the full ensemble. They, moreover, project increasing year-to-year variability of total annual precipitation, particularly over California, where change in total annual precipitation is not projected with confidence. Focusing on three representative river basins along the West Coast, we show that, while the decrease in precipitation frequency is mostly due to non-AR events, the increase in heavy and extreme precipitation is almost entirely due to ARs. This research demonstrates that examining meteorological causes of precipitation regime change can lead to better and more nuanced understanding of climate projections. It highlights the critical role of future changes in ARs to Western water resources, especially over California.

Precipitation shifts over western North America as a result of declining Arctic sea ice cover: The coupled system response

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | July 21st, 2009

Changes in Arctic sea ice cover have the potential to impact midlatitude climate. A previous sensitivity study utilizing the National Center for Atmospheric Resea

Changes in Arctic sea ice cover have the potential to impact midlatitude climate. A previous sensitivity study utilizing the National Center for Atmospheric Research’s (NCAR) atmospheric general circulation model [AGCM; Community Climate Model, version 3 (CCM3)] to explore climate sensitivity to declining Arctic sea ice cover suggested that, as Arctic sea ice cover is reduced, precipitation patterns over western North America will shift toward dryer conditions in southwestern North America and wetter conditions in northwestern North America. Here, three complementary lines of research validate and explore the robustness of this possible climate change impact: 1) repetition of the previous sensitivity study (specified constant Arctic sea ice cover and atmospheric CO2) with an updated version of the NCAR AGCM [third Community Atmosphere Model (CAM3)], 2) investigation of the climate response to dynamically reduced Arctic sea ice cover (driven by a quadrupling of atmospheric CO2) in the coupled NCAR Community Climate System Model.

Precipitation variability increases in a warmer climate

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | December 21st, 2017

Understanding changes in precipitation variability is essential for a complete explanation of the hydrologic cycle’s response to warming and its impacts. Whil

Understanding changes in precipitation variability is essential for a complete explanation of the hydrologic cycle’s response to warming and its impacts. While changes in mean and extreme precipitation have been studied intensively, precipitation variability has received less attention, despite its theoretical and practical importance. Here, we show that precipitation variability in most climatemodels increases over a majority of global land area in response to warming (66% of land has a robust increase in variability of seasonal-mean precipitation). Comparing recent decades to RCP8.5 projections for the end of the 21st century, we find that in the global, multi-model mean, precipitation variability increases 3–4% K−1 globally, 4–5% K−1 over land and 2–4% K−1 over ocean, and is remarkably robust on a range of timescales from daily to decadal. Precipitation variability increases by at least as much as mean precipitation and less than moisture and extreme precipitation for most models, regions, and timescales. We interpret this as being related to an increase in moisture which is partially mitigated by weakening circulation. We show that changes in observed daily variability in station data are consistent with increased variability.

Predicted Water-Level and Water-Quality Effects of Artificial Recharge in the Upper Coachella Valley, California, Using a Finite-Element Digital Model

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | April 15th, 1978

This study was begun in mid-1973 by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Desert Water Agency (DWA) and the Coachella Valley County Water District (CVCWD). T

This study was begun in mid-1973 by the U.S. Geological Survey in cooperation with the Desert Water Agency (DWA) and the Coachella Valley County Water District (CVCWD). The purpose of the study was to (1) analyze the present water quality conditions of the ground-water basin, (2) determine the water-level changes that will result from recharging the aquifer, and (3) determine the water-quality changes that will result from recharging the aquifer. The study included: (1) Collecting, evaluating, tabulating, and computer processing all available ground-water-quality data for the study area; (2) describing the areal distribution of water quality throughout the ground-water basin; (3) updating the pumpage and other hydrologic data compiled for the analog model of the study area (Tyley, 1974); (4) developing a digital hydraulic (flow) model utilizing the finite-element method; and (5) developing a digital solute-transport (water quality) model utilizing the finite-element method. This report presents the results of the 3-year study and the predictions of the possible effects of ground-water recharge on the water resources of the upper Coachella Valley.

Predicting Streamflow Elasticity Based on Percolation Theory and Ecological Optimality

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | July 20th, 2023

Preliminary Evaluation of the Hydrogeologic System in Owens Valley, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | January 8th, 1988

Owens Valley is a major source of water for southern California and presently (1986) provides more than 60 percent of the supply for Los Angeles. Since 1970, ground-water

Owens Valley is a major source of water for southern California and presently (1986) provides more than 60 percent of the supply for Los Angeles. Since 1970, ground-water withdrawal from Owens Valley has increased, and a decline in the health of vegetation has been reported. In 1982, a cooperative project to study the hydrogeology and plant ecology of Owens Valley was begun by Inyo County, the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power, and the U.S. Geological Survey. As part of this project, the available data and present hydrologic concepts of Owens Valley were evaluated by using a ground-waterflow model. Results of this preliminary evaluation are being used to guide data collection and the development of more sophisticated hydrologic models.

Preliminary hydrogeologic assessment near the boundary of the Antelope Valley and El Mirage Valley groundwater basins, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | July 19th, 2017

Prioritizing Candidate Green Infrastructure Sites within the City of Ukiah: A Demonstration of the Site Locator Tool of GreenPlan-IT. Report prepared for the City of Ukiah Department of Public Works under Supplemental Environmental Project # R1-018-0024

San Francisco Estuary Institute (SFEI) | April 1st, 2019

Green infrastructure (GI), also known as Low Impact Development (LID), has emerged as an integral aspect of multi-benefit, watershed approaches to address concerns about

Green infrastructure (GI), also known as Low Impact Development (LID), has emerged as an integral aspect of multi-benefit, watershed approaches to address concerns about stormwater quality and quantity in an urban environment. When carefully applied, GI installations, such as rain gardens, tree-well planters, and permeable pavement, can be cost-effective, resilient ways to manage storm water at its source with measurable, cumulative environmental and community benefits. 

Probabilistic estimates of future changes in California temperature and precipitation using statistical and dynamical downscaling

Climate Dynamics (Springer) | March 30th, 2012

Sixteen global general circulation models were used to develop probabilistic projections of temperature (T) and precipitation (P) changes over California by the 2060s.

Sixteen global general circulation models were used to develop probabilistic projections of temperature (T) and precipitation (P) changes over California by the 2060s. The global models were downscaled with two statistical techniques and three nested dynamical regional climate models, although not all global models were downscaled with all techniques. Both monthly and daily timescale changes in T and P are addressed, the latter being important for a range of applications in energy use, water management, and agriculture. The T changes tend to agree more across downscaling techniques than the P changes. Year-to-year natural internal climate variability is roughly of similar magnitude to the projected T changes. In the monthly average, July temperatures shift enough that that the hottest July found in any simulation over the historical period becomes a modestly cool July in the future period. Januarys as cold as any found in the historical period are still found in the 2060s, but the median and maximum monthly average temperatures increase notably. Annual and seasonal P changes are small compared to interannual or intermodel variability. However, the annual change is composed of seasonally varying changes that are themselves much larger, but tend to cancel in the annual mean. Winters show modestly wetter conditions in the North of the state, while spring and autumn show less precipitation. The dynamical downscaling techniques project increasing precipitation in the Southeastern part of the state, which is influenced by the North American monsoon, a feature that is not captured by the statistical downscaling.