North American drought: Reconstructions, causes, and consequences

Earth Science Reviews (Elsevier) | January 3rd, 2007

Severe drought is the greatest recurring natural disaster to strike North America. A remarkable network of centuries-long annual tree-ring chronologies has now allowed fo

Severe drought is the greatest recurring natural disaster to strike North America. A remarkable network of centuries-long annual tree-ring chronologies has now allowed for the reconstruction of past drought over North America covering the past 1000 or more years in most regions. These reconstructions reveal the occurrence of past “megadroughts” of unprecedented severity and duration, ones that have never been experienced by modern societies in North America. There is strong archaeological evidence for the destabilizing influence of these past droughts on advanced agricultural societies, examples that should resonate today given the increasing vulnerability of modern water-based systems to relatively short-term droughts. Understanding how these megadroughts develop and persist is a timely scientific problem. Very recently, climate models have succeeded in simulating all of the major droughts over North America from the Civil War to the severe 1998–2004 drought in the western U.S. These numerical experiments indicate the dominating importance of tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in determining how much precipitation falls over large parts of North America. Of central importance to drought formation is the development of cool “La Niña-like” SSTs in the eastern tropical Pacific region. This development appears to be partially linked to changes in radiative forcing over that region, which affects the Bjerknes feedback mechanism of the ENSO cycle there. Paradoxically, warmer conditions over the tropical Pacific region lead to the development of cool La Niña-like SSTs there, which is drought inducing over North America. Whether or not this process will lead to a greater prevalence of drought in the future as the world warms due to accumulating greenhouse gases is unclear at this time.

North American droughts of the mid to late nineteenth century: a history, simulation and implication for Mediaeval drought

Holocene (Sage Journals) | February 1st, 2006

Unlike the major droughts of the twentieth century that are readily identified in the instrumental record, similar events in the nineteenth century have to be identified

Unlike the major droughts of the twentieth century that are readily identified in the instrumental record, similar events in the nineteenth century have to be identified using a combination of proxy data, historical accounts and a sparse collection of early instrumental records. In the USA, three distinct periods of widespread and persistent drought stand out in these records for the latter half of the nineteenth century: 1856-1865, 1870-1877 and 1890-1896. Each of these events is shown to coincide with the existence of an anomalously cool, La Nifia-like tropical Pacific. To examine the physical mechanisms behind these droughts two ensembles of simulations with an atmosphere general circulation model (AGCM) were generated: the first forces an AGCM with the observed history of Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) everywhere from 1856 to 2001 (the GOGA experiment), the second forces the AGCM only with tropical Pacific SSTs, being coupled to a two-layer entraining mixed layer (ML) ocean elsewhere (the POGA-ML experiment). Owing to a sparsity of instrumental precipitation data at this time, proxy evidence from tree rings is used as verification. A comparison of modelled soil moisture with tree-ring reconstructions of the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), a proxy for soil moisture, from the North American Drought Atlas is made. Both the POGA-ML and GOGA ensemble means capture the three multi-year droughts of the mid to late nineteenth century, indicating that the droughts were SST forced. The similarity of the POGA-ML and GOGA simulations implies that the component of each drought signal that is forced by the SST is driven ultimately by the La Nifia-like tropical Pacific. The global atmosphere-ocean context of each of the mid to late-nineteenth century droughts reveals a zonally and hemispherically symmetric pattern consistent with forcing from the tropics. In addition, Rossby wave propagation from the cooler equatorial Pacific amplifies dry conditions over the USA. Finally, using published coral data for the last millennium to reconstruct a NINO 3.4 history, the modern-day relationship between NINO 3.4 and North American drought is applied to recreate two of the severest Mediaeval ‘drought epochs’ in the western USA. The large-scale spatial similarity to the Drought Atlas data demonstrates the potential link between a colder eastern equatorial Pacific and the persistent North American droughts of the Mediaeval period.

Numerical Simulation of Ground-Water Flow and Assessment of the Effects of Artificial Recharge in the Rialto–Colton Basin, San Bernardino County, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | July 1st, 2001

Nutrient Chemistry in the Elizabeth Lake Subwatershed: Effects of Onsite Wastewater Treatment Systems on Groundwater and Lake Water Quality, Los Angeles County, California

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | April 16th, 2024

Nutrient (nitrogen [N] and phosphorus [P] chemistry) down-gradient from onsite wastewater treatment system (OWTS) was evaluated with a groundwater study in the area surr

Nutrient (nitrogen [N] and phosphorus [P] chemistry) down-gradient from onsite wastewater treatment system (OWTS) was evaluated with a groundwater study in the area surrounding Elizabeth Lake, the largest of three sag lakes within the Santa Clara River watershed of Los Angeles County, California. Elizabeth Lake is listed on the “303 (d) Impaired Waters List” for excess nutrients and is down-gradient from more than 600 OWTS. The primary objective of this study was to develop a conceptual hydrogeological model to determine if discharge from OWTS is transported into shallow groundwater within the Elizabeth Lake subwatershed and contributes nutrients to Elizabeth Lake in excess of the total maximum daily load limit.

Objective definition of rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for the initiation of post-fire debris flows in southern California

Landslides (Springer) | June 27th, 2012

Rainfall intensity–duration (ID) thresholds are commonly used to predict the temporal occurrence of debris flows and shallow landslides. Typically, thresholds are sub

Rainfall intensity–duration (ID) thresholds are commonly used to predict the temporal occurrence of debris flows and shallow landslides. Typically, thresholds are subjectively defined as the upper limit of peak rainstorm intensities that do not produce debris flows and landslides, or as the lower limit of peak rainstorm intensities that initiate debris flows and landslides. In addition, peak rainstorm intensities are often used to define thresholds, as data regarding the precise timing of debris flows and associated rainfall intensities are usually not available, and rainfall characteristics are often estimated from distant gauging locations. Here, we attempt to improve the performance of existing threshold-based predictions of post-fire debris-flow occurrence by utilizing data on the precise timing of debris flows relative to rainfall intensity, and develop an objective method to define the threshold intensities. We objectively defined the thresholds by maximizing the number of correct predictions of debris flow occurrence while minimizing the rate of both Type I (false positive) and Type II (false negative) errors. We identified that (1) there were statistically significant differences between peak storm and triggering intensities, (2) the objectively defined threshold model presents a better balance between predictive success, false alarms and failed alarms than previous subjectively defined thresholds, (3) thresholds based on measurements of rainfall intensity over shorter duration (≤60min) are better predictors of post-fire debris-flow initiation than longer duration thresholds, and (4) the objectively defined thresholds were exceeded prior to the recorded time of debris flow at frequencies similar to or better than subjective thresholds. Our findings highlight the need to better constrain the timing and processes of initiation of landslides and debris flows for future threshold studies. In addition, the methods used to define rainfall thresholds in this study represent a computationally simple means of deriving critical values for other studies of nonlinear phenomena characterized by thresholds.

On the Connection Between Global Hydrologic Sensitivity and Regional Wet Extremes

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | October 23rd, 2018

The global water cycle is expected to intensify under climate change and can be generally characterized by greater rainfall and surface evaporation in the future. However

The global water cycle is expected to intensify under climate change and can be generally characterized by greater rainfall and surface evaporation in the future. However, the rate at which the globally averaged precipitation increases is highly variable among different climate models. In this paper, we relate the intermodel variability in global water cycle intensification to differences in model projections of heavy precipitation in tropical and some extratropical regions. We also find that models consistently experience a trade‐off between increasing heavy and decreasing light‐moderate precipitation: Models with larger future increases in heavy precipitation exhibit greater compensating declines in light‐moderate rainfall. Differences in heavy precipitation changes are also tied to model resolution. Our study helps to provide new insight on the factors shaping projections of future precipitation extremes, which have strong implications for water resources, natural hazard risks associated with flooding, and ecosystem stability.

On the dynamics of the Hadley circulation and subtropical drying

Climate Dynamics (Springer) | April 10th, 2014

Changes in subtropical precipitation and the Hadley circulation (HC) are inextricably linked. The original Halley–Hadley model cannot explain certain aspects of the Ear

Changes in subtropical precipitation and the Hadley circulation (HC) are inextricably linked. The original Halley–Hadley model cannot explain certain aspects of the Earth’s meridional circulation in the tropics and is of limited use in understanding regional changes in precipitation. Here, we expand on previous work on the regional and seasonal aspects of the HC, in particular how land–sea temperature contrasts contribute to the strength and width of the HC. We show that the Earth’s HC is well described by three regionally distinct cells along the eastern edges of the major ocean basins with opposite circulations elsewhere. Moreover, comparable summertime hemisphere cells emerge in each region. While it has been recognized that continents modify the meridional pressure gradient, we demonstrate that a substantial part of the Earth’s HC is driven by zonal pressure gradients (ZPGs) that only exist due to continental heating and air–sea interaction. Projected changes in land–sea temperature contrasts in a warming climate due to the relatively low thermal capacity of land will also affect ZPGs and thus HC strength and width, with implications for extremes in hydroclimate and freshwater resources across the increasingly vulnerable subtropics.

On the Sources of Water Supply Forecast Error in Western Colorado

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | December 1st, 2023

One‐dimensional simulation of aquifer system compaction near Pixley, California: 1. Constant parameters

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | June 12th, 1975

Aggregate one‐dimensional compaction (consolidation) of a series of aquitards in a compacting aquifer system has been simulated through use of a finite difference repre

Aggregate one‐dimensional compaction (consolidation) of a series of aquitards in a compacting aquifer system has been simulated through use of a finite difference representation of the vertical stress distribution within an idealized aquitard. Among the parameters affecting the simulated compaction are two storage coefficients (compressibility values), one for recoverable and the other for nonrecoverable compression. These two storage coefficients introduce a transient heterogeneity within an aquitard that is generally ignored by hydrologists. A computer program with two sets of constant coefficients calculates the daily deformation due to observed changes in applied stress near Pixley, California. Although water levels fluctuate annually, no long‐term water level decline occurred near Pixley between January 1, 1959, and February 4, 1971. During this period, 3.19 ft (0.972 m) of compaction was observed. The net difference between simulated and observed compaction on February 4, 1971, was 1.3% of the observed value. Maximum deviation occurred in mid‐1964 and equaled 7% of the observed compaction.

Optimal Selection and Placement of Green Infrastructure in Urban Watersheds for PCB Control

American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) | May 1st, 2019

San Francisco Bay and its watersheds are polluted by legacy polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), resulting in the establishment of a total maximum daily load (TDML) that req

San Francisco Bay and its watersheds are polluted by legacy polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), resulting in the establishment of a total maximum daily load (TDML) that requires a 90% PCB load reduction from municipal stormwater. Green infrastructure (GI) is a multibenefit solution for stormwater management, potentially addressing the TMDL objectives, but planning and implementing GI cost-effectively to achieve management goals remains a challenge and requires an integrated watershed approach. This study used the nondominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGA-II) coupled with the Stormwater Management Model (SWMM) to find near-optimal combinations of GIs that maximize PCB load reduction and minimize total relative cost at a watershed scale. The selection and placement of three locally favored GI types (bioretention, infiltration trench, and permeable pavement) were analyzed based on their cost and effectiveness. The results show that between optimal solutions and nonoptimal solutions, the effectiveness in load reduction could vary as much as 30% and the difference in total relative cost could be well over $100 million. Sensitivity analysis of both GI costs and sizing criteria suggest that the assumptions made regarding these parameters greatly influenced the optimal solutions.