The key role of dry days in changing regional climate and precipitation regimes

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | March 13th, 2014

Future changes in the number of dry days per year can either reinforce or counteract projected increases in daily precipitation intensity as the climate warms. We

Future changes in the number of dry days per year can either reinforce or counteract projected increases in daily precipitation intensity as the climate warms. We analyze climate model projected changes in the number of dry days using 28 coupled global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, version 5 (CMIP5). We find that the Mediterranean Sea region, parts of Central and South America, and western Indonesia could experience up to 30 more dry days per year by the end of this century. We illustrate how changes in the number of dry days and the precipitation intensity on precipitating days combine to produce changes in annual precipitation, and show that over much of the subtropics the change in number of dry days dominates the annual changes in precipitation and accounts for a large part of the change in interannual precipitation variability.

The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) | September 24th, 2019

All people on Earth depend directly or indirectly on the ocean and cryosphere. The global ocean covers 71% of the Earth surface and contains about 97% of the Earth’s w

All people on Earth depend directly or indirectly on the ocean and cryosphere. The global ocean covers 71% of the Earth surface and contains about 97% of the Earth’s water. The cryosphere refers to frozen components of the Earth system. Around 10% of Earth’s land area is covered by glaciers or ice sheets. The ocean and cryosphere support unique habitats, and are interconnected with other components of the climate system through global exchange of water, energy and carbon. The projected responses of the ocean and cryosphere to past and current human-induced greenhouse gas emissions and ongoing global warming include climate feedbacks, changes over decades to millennia that cannot be avoided, thresholds of abrupt change, and irreversibility. Human communities in close connection with coastal environments, small islands (including Small Island Developing States, SIDS), polar areas and high mountains are particularly exposed to ocean and cryosphere change, such as sea level rise, extreme sea level and shrinking cryosphere. Other communities further from the coast are also exposed to changes in the ocean, such as through extreme weather events. Today, around 4 million people live permanently in the Arctic region, of whom 10% are Indigenous. The low-lying coastal zone8 is currently home to around 680 million people (nearly 10% of the 2010 global population), projected to reach more than one billion by 2050. SIDS are home to 65 million people. Around 670 million people (nearly 10% of the 2010 global population), including Indigenous peoples, live in high mountain regions in all continents except Antarctica. In high mountain regions, population is projected to reach between 740 and 840 million by 2050 (about 8.4–8.7% of the projected global population). In addition to their role within the climate system, such as the uptake and redistribution of natural and anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) and heat, as well as ecosystem support, services provided to people by the ocean and/or cryosphere include food and water supply, renewable energy, and benefits for health and well-being, cultural values, tourism, trade, and transport. The state of the ocean and cryosphere interacts with each aspect of sustainability reflected in the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Over the last decades, global warming has led to widespread shrinking of the cryosphere, with mass loss from ice sheets and glaciers (very high confidence), reductions in snow cover (high confidence) and Arctic sea ice extent and thickness (very high confidence), and increased permafrost temperature (very high confidence).

The Radical Groundwater Storage Test

Scientific American | October 19th, 2017

IN BRIEF California could better survive flood years and drought years by capturing floodwaters and using them to recharge underground aquifers that farmers and muni

IN BRIEF California could better survive flood years and drought years by capturing floodwaters and using them to recharge underground aquifers that farmers and municipalities now pump from when rains are scarce. To do so, water users and managers have to regard surface water and groundwater as one connected resource. A variety of test projects are proving that this approach can work. For example, farm fields can be flooded even when crops are growing so the water can percolate down into aquifers. Revising water rights and paying landowners to allow flooding can help the techniques work across California and the world.

The Rainfall Intensity-Duration Control of Debris Flows After Wildfire

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | May 23rd, 2023

The Science and Prediction of Post-Fire Debris Flows in the Western United States

U.S. Forest Service (USDA) | August 1st, 2017

Debris flows are among the most destructive hydrological consequences of fires in steep watersheds. The high likelihood of catastrophic wildfires in the western U

Debris flows are among the most destructive hydrological consequences of fires in steep watersheds. The high likelihood of catastrophic wildfires in the western United States and the encroachment of human activities into steep fire-prone areas have created the need to better understand, predict, and mitigate these hazards. This article highlights recent advances in understanding post-fire debris-flow generation and provides an overview of the evolution of hazard assessments in the western United States. Specific emphasis is placed upon free, publicly available toolsdeveloped by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and available for analyses in support of Burned Area Emergency Response (BAER) and Emergency Watershed Protection (EWP) program activities. These tools consist of empirical models that predict the likelihood, potential volume, and the rainfall intensity-duration thresholds for debris flows in recently burned watersheds.

The season for large fires in Southern California is projected to lengthen in a changing climate

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | February 17th, 2022

Southern California is a biodiversity hotspot and home to over 23 million people. Over recent decades the annual wildfire area in the coastal southern California region h

Southern California is a biodiversity hotspot and home to over 23 million people. Over recent decades the annual wildfire area in the coastal southern California region has not significantly changed. Yet how fire regime will respond to future anthropogenic climate change remains an important question. Here, we estimate wildfire probability in southern California at station scale and daily resolution using random forest algorithms and downscaled earth system model simulations. We project that large fire days will increase from 36 days/year during 1970–1999 to 58 days/year under moderate greenhouse gas emission scenario (RCP4.5) and 71 days/year by 2070–2099 under a high emission scenario (RCP8.5). The large fire season will be more intense and have an earlier onset and delayed end. Our findings suggest that despite the lack of a contemporary trend in fire regime, projected greenhouse gas emissions will substantially increase the fire danger in southern California by 2099.

The Seasonal Cycle of Surface Soil Moisture

American Meteorological Society (AMS) | June 29th, 2022

The seasonal cycle contributes substantially to soil moisture temporal variability in many parts of the world, with important implications for seasonal forecasting releva

The seasonal cycle contributes substantially to soil moisture temporal variability in many parts of the world, with important implications for seasonal forecasting relevant to agriculture and the health of humans and ecosystems. There is considerable spatial variability in the seasonal cycle of soil moisture, yet a lack of global observations has hindered the development of parsimonious theories explaining that variability. Here, we use 6 years of global satellite observations to describe and explain the seasonal cycle of surface soil moisture globally. An unsupervised clustering algorithm is used to identify five distinct seasonal cycle regimes. Each seasonal cycle regime typically arises in both hemispheres, on multiple continents, and across substantially different local climates. To explain this spatial variability, we then show that the observed seasonal cycle regimes are reproduced very well by a simple but physically based water balance model, which only uses precipitation and downwelling surface shortwave radiation as inputs, and includes no free parameters. Surprisingly, no information on vegetation or land cover is required. To our knowledge, this is the first characterization of the seasonal cycle of surface soil moisture based on global observations.

The Uneven Nature of Daily Precipitation and Its Change

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | October 19th, 2018

Rain falls unevenly in time, which can lead to floods and droughts. It is widely known that precipitation is uneven, but it is difficult to quantify. Here we develop a me

Rain falls unevenly in time, which can lead to floods and droughts. It is widely known that precipitation is uneven, but it is difficult to quantify. Here we develop a measure for the unevenness of precipitation: the number of the wettest days each year in which half of the annual rain falls. We apply this to rain observed by gauges around the world. At all gauges combined, it takes only 12 days each year for half of the rain to fall. We also apply the measure to climate model simulations, with projections for the rest of the century. In the climate model simulations, the change in future rainfall is even more uneven than rainfall today: In a scenario with high greenhouse‐gas emissions, half of the increase in rainfall happens in the wettest 6 days each year. Rather than assuming more rain in general, society needs to take measures to deal with little change most of the time and a handful of events with much more rain.

The value of marsh restoration for flood risk reduction in an urban estuary

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | March 21st, 2024

Topobathymetric Model for the Central Coast of California, 1929 to 2017

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | August 2nd, 2018

To support the modeling of storm-induced flooding, the USGS Coastal National Elevation Database (CoNED) Applications Project has created an integrated 1-meter topobathyme

To support the modeling of storm-induced flooding, the USGS Coastal National Elevation Database (CoNED) Applications Project has created an integrated 1-meter topobathymetric digital elevation model (TBDEM) for the Central California Coast. High-resolution coastal elevation data is required to identify flood, hurricane, and sea-level rise inundation hazard zones and other earth science applications, such as the development of sediment transport and storm surge models. The new TBDEM consists of the best available multi-source topographic and bathymetric elevation data for the onshore and offshore areas in Central California. The Central California TBDEM integrates 70 different topographic and bathymetric data sources including LiDAR point clouds, hydrographic surveys, single-beam acoustic surveys, and multi-beam acoustic surveys obtained from USGS, NOAA, and USACE. The topographic and bathymetric surveys were sorted and prioritized based on survey date, accuracy, spatial distribution, and point density to develop a model based on the best available elevation data. Because bathymetric data are typically referenced to tidal datums (such as Mean High Water or Mean Low Water), all tidally-referenced heights were transformed into orthometric heights that are normally used for mapping elevation on land (based on the North American Vertical Datum of 1988). The spatial resolution is 1-meter with the general location ranging from Point Conception to the Golden Gate Bridge, and extending offshore to a depth of at least 15 meters. The overall temporal range of the input topography and bathymetry is 1929 to 2017. The topography surveys are from 2008-2015. The majority of the bathymetry is from 1996-2011. Some of the nearshore void zone (not covered by lidar or multibeam) was filled with NOS surveys dating back as far as 1929.