Quantifying anthropogenic contributions to century-scale groundwater salinity changes, San Joaquin Valley, California, USA

Science of the Total Environment (Elsevier) | June 15th, 2018

Total dissolved solids (TDS) concentrations in groundwater tapped for beneficial uses (drinking water, irrigation, freshwater industrial) have increased on average by abo

Total dissolved solids (TDS) concentrations in groundwater tapped for beneficial uses (drinking water, irrigation, freshwater industrial) have increased on average by about 100 mg/L over the last 100 y ears in the San Joaquin Valley, California (SJV). D uring this period land use in the SJV changed from natural vegetation and dryland agriculture to dominantly irrigated agriculture with growing urban areas. Century-scale salinity trends were evaluated by comparing TDS concentrations and major ion compositions of groundwater from wells sampled in 1910 (Historic) to data from wells sampled in 1993 –2015 (Modern). TDS concentrations in subregions of the SJV, the southern (SSJV), western (WSJV), northeastern (NESJV), and southeastern (SESJV) were calculated using a cell-declustering method. TDS concentrations increased in all regions, with the greatest increases found in the SSJV and SESJV. Evaluation of the Modern data from the NESJV and SESJV found higher TDS concentrations in recently recharged (post-1950) groundwater from shallow (b50 m) wells surrounded predominantly by agricultural land uses, while premodern (pre-1950) groundwater from deeper wells, and recently recharged groundwater from wells surrounded by mainly urban, natural, and mixed land uses had lower TDS concentrations, approaching the TDS concentrations in the Historic groundwater. For the NESJV and SESJV, inverse geochemical modeling with PHREEQC indicated that weathering of primary silicate minerals accounted for the majority o f the increase in TDS concentrations, contributing more than nitrate from fertilizers and sulfate from soil amendments combined. Bicarbonate showed the greatest increase among major ions, resulting from enhanced silicate weathering due to recharge of irrigation water enriched in CO2 during the growing season. The results of this study demonstrate that large anthropogenic changes to the hydrologic regime, like massive development of irrigated agriculture in semi-arid areas like the SJV, can cause large changes in groundwater quality on a regional scale.

Quantifying Aspect-Dependent Snowpack Response to High-Elevation Wildfire in the Southern Rocky Mountains

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | September 17th, 2024

Quantifying Aspect-Dependent Snowpack Response to High-Elevation Wildfire in the Southern Rocky Mountains

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | September 17th, 2024

Quantifying Erosion Rates by Using Terrestrial Laser Scanning at Malakoff Diggins State Historic Park, Nevada County, California, 2014–17

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | December 31st, 2019

The abandoned hydraulic mine pit at Malakoff Diggins near Grass Valley, California, can produce large volumes of eroded sediment transportable by storm runoff. Sediment-l

The abandoned hydraulic mine pit at Malakoff Diggins near Grass Valley, California, can produce large volumes of eroded sediment transportable by storm runoff. Sediment-laden water discharged from the pit is a major source of heavy metals to Humbug Creek and the South Yuba River. To develop a comprehensive sediment budget for the Malakoff Diggins mine pit and identify sources of sediment and metals within the pit that can become entrained as suspended sediment in runoff discharged from the pit, the U.S. Geological Survey, working in cooperation with the California Department of Water Resources, the California Department of Parks and Recreation, and the Nevada Irrigation District, used terrestrial laser scanning technology to quantify eroded volumes and erosion rates of sedimentary units exposed in the pit walls. The results for eroded volumes and rates reported here are part one of a three-part study. High-resolution terrestrial laser scanning surveys were repeated annually from 2014 through 2017, including before and after dry and wet winters, measuring centimeter-scale topographic changes to quantify the volume of sediment eroded from outcrops at Malakoff Diggins State Historic Park, located on the western slope of the northern Sierra Nevada about 17 kilometers northeast of Grass Valley, California. Terrestrial laser scanning enabled construction of three-dimensional maps of the complex outcrop surfaces, which could not be mapped non-destructively or in sufficient detail with traditional surveying techniques. Net eroded volumes from discrete sedimentary units were calculated at four study sites (numbered 1, 2, 4, and 5) throughout the mine pit for the December 2014 to August 2017 period. Net eroded volumes at the four study sites during the 32-month study ranged from 288 plus or minus (±) 13 cubic meters (m3) of sediment at site 1 to 8,517±145 m3 at site 4. Annual erosion rates at the four study sites ranged from 0.06±0.01 cubic meters per square meter per year (m3/m2/yr) at site 4 to 0.14±0.01 m3/m2/yr at site 2. The total net eroded volume documented with terrestrial laser scanning at all four study sites from December 2014 to August 2017 was 12,934±334 m3 of sediment, and the average annual erosion rate for the four study sites was 0.10±0.04 m3/m2/yr. Maps of horizontal retreat indicate that a variety of erosional processes were responsible for the eroded sediment volume. These included areally broad and smaller-scale processes such as persistent dry ravel, periodic sheet wash, and frost heave and more localized and larger-scale processes such as coalescing rill and gully erosion, debris flows, rotational landslides, and block-fall failures.

Quantifying the Eroded and Deposited Mass of Mercury-Contaminated Sediment by Using Terrestrial Laser Scanning at the Confluence of Humbug Creek and the South Yuba River, Nevada County, California, 2011–13

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | October 24th, 2019

High-resolution, terrestrial laser scanning, also known as ground-based lidar (light detection and ranging), was used to quantify the volume of mercury-contaminated sedim

High-resolution, terrestrial laser scanning, also known as ground-based lidar (light detection and ranging), was used to quantify the volume of mercury-contaminated sediment eroded from an outcrop of historical placer-mining debris at the confluence of Humbug Creek and the South Yuba River in the Sierra Nevada foothills, about 17 kilometers northeast of Grass Valley, California, and delivered to a zone below an observed flood stage of the South Yuba River. Substantial quantities of mercury were used and lost to the environment from historical placer gold mining activities on the western slope of the Sierra Nevada, California, and recent studies have documented continued persistence of mercury and methylmercury concentrations in water, sediment, fish, and predatory invertebrates in the Yuba River drainage basin in relation to suspected mercury sources. To identify areas that have high levels of mercury contamination as possible remediation targets in the Yuba River drainage basin and other areas in the Sierra Nevada, the U.S. Geological Survey worked in cooperation with the Bureau of Land Management on this and other detailed studies. Malakoff Diggings, one of the largest hydraulic gold mines in the Sierra Nevada, is 3.5 kilometers north of the study site in the Humbug Creek subbasin. Terrestrial laser scanning was used to produce centimeter-scale, three-dimensional maps of the complex outcrop surface, which was composed of an upper erosional area (cliff and over-steepened slope) and a lower depositional area (colluvial slope). The outcrop could not be mapped non-destructively or in sufficient detail by traditional surveying techniques. The study site, which was approximately 70 meters long, 30 meters wide and 20 meters high, was surveyed four times in 2 years (December 15, 2011; October 25, 2012; January 4, 2013; and November 22, 2013) to determine volumetric differences in the upper erosional and lower depositional areas between surveys. Measured changes in volume for the upper erosional area and lower depositional area were multiplied by the corresponding sediment density so that a mass-balance relationship, between the eroded and deposited sediment during each period, could be used to estimate the amount of mercury-contaminated sediment that was transported to below the base of the colluvial slope, where it could be mobilized by the South Yuba River during a flood having a 5-to-10-year recurrence interval. On December 2, 2012, a flood of this estimated magnitude reached the base of the colluvial slope. Between the first and second surveys (December 15, 2011–October 25, 2012), an estimated mass of 18±9.2 kilograms of sediment was transported from steeper slopes to the gently sloping river bank below the base of the colluvial slope. Between the second and third surveys (October 25, 2012–January 4, 2013), an atmospheric river caused heavy precipitation at the study site during late November and early December 2012. This short-duration, high-intensity rain resulted in a large amount of erosion and deposition at the study site and also caused high streamflow (flood stage) in the South Yuba River. From October 2012 to January 2013, 51±31 kilograms of sediment was transported to below the base of the colluvial slope, that is, below the high-water mark of December 2, 2012. Between the third and fourth surveys (January 4, 2013–November 22, 2013), an additional 10±26 kilograms of sediment was transported to below the base of the colluvial slope. During the 24 months of the study, the total mass of sediment delivered below the base of the colluvial slope and the high-water mark of December 2, 2012, was 79±66 kilograms. In any given year there is a 10–20-percent chance (5-to-10-year recurrence interval) of a flood equal to or greater than that of the December 2, 2012, flood, which could transport mercury-contaminated sediment at the study site into the South Yuba River. Hydraulically modeled estimates of the South Yuba River stage during floods having a 50- and 100-year recurrence interval (2- and 1-percent annual exceedance probability, respectively) indicated that resulting river stages could be 2.2–3.0 meters above the base of the colluvial slope, or 2.2–3.0 meters above the high-water mark of December 2, 2012. Such high river stages would be likely to inundate the lower half of the colluvial slope and mobilize a substantial volume of mercury-contaminated sediment to downstream areas.

Quantifying the Eroded Volume of Mercury-Contaminated Sediment Using Terrestrial Laser Scanning at Stocking Flat, Deer Creek, Nevada County, California, 2010–13

U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) | July 7th, 2016

High-resolution ground-based light detection and ranging (lidar), also known as terrestrial laser scanning, was used to quantify the volume of mercury-contaminated sedime

High-resolution ground-based light detection and ranging (lidar), also known as terrestrial laser scanning, was used to quantify the volume of mercury-contaminated sediment eroded from a stream cutbank at Stocking Flat along Deer Creek in the Sierra Nevada foothills, about 3 kilometers west of Nevada City, California. Terrestrial laser scanning was used to collect sub-centimeter, three-dimensional images of the complex cutbank surface, which could not be mapped non-destructively or in sufficient detail with traditional surveying techniques. The stream cutbank, which is approximately 50 meters long and 8 meters high, was surveyed on four occasions: December 1, 2010; January 20, 2011; May 12, 2011; and February 4, 2013. Volumetric changes were determined between the sequential, three-dimensional lidar surveys. Volume was calculated by two methods, and the average value is reported. Between the first and second surveys (December 1, 2010, to January 20, 2011), a volume of 143 plus or minus 15 cubic meters of sediment was eroded from the cutbank and mobilized by Deer Creek. Between the second and third surveys (January 20, 2011, to May 12, 2011), a volume of 207 plus or minus 24 cubic meters of sediment was eroded from the cutbank and mobilized by the stream. Total volumetric change during the winter and spring of 2010–11 was 350 plus or minus 28 cubic meters. Between the third and fourth surveys (May 12, 2011, to February 4, 2013), the differencing of the three-dimensional lidar data indicated that a volume of 18 plus or minus 10 cubic meters of sediment was eroded from the cutbank. The total volume of sediment eroded from the cutbank between the first and fourth surveys was 368 plus or minus 30 cubic meters.

Quantifying the impacts of rainfall and evaporation on Lake Bonneville

American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) | January 1st, 2026

Improved understanding of hydroclimatic drivers in water-stressed regions enables more accurate forecasting of future climate change impacts. Lake Bonneville was the larg

Improved understanding of hydroclimatic drivers in water-stressed regions enables more accurate forecasting of future climate change impacts. Lake Bonneville was the largest Pleistocene lake in western North America, with a maximum surface area of ~52,000 km2, before shrinking markedly to become the modern Great Salt Lake. After more than a century of study, the balance between enhanced precipitation and reduced evaporation as drivers of lake growth continues to be debated. Multiple studies identify precipitation as the main factor associated with the highest lake levels, but most proxies provide an estimate of net evaporation and cannot independently resolve precipitation from evaporation. Therefore, factors associated with lake size, growth, and retreat remain uncertain. This study uses the thermodynamically based carbonate clumped isotope geothermometer to estimate temperature, evaporation, and precipitation at Lake Bonneville from 23 to 16 thousand years ago (ka). Clumped isotope derived constraints on hydroclimate are also applied to assess the accuracy of regional climate model outputs. During transgressive and open phases of the lake, we find that regional and large-scale precipitation delivery were the driving factors of lake expansion. In contrast, at its maximum extent (~17.5 ka), Lake Bonneville was maintained via suppressed evaporation rates at 50% relative to modern while precipitation rates were similar to modern levels.

Quantifying the influence of global warming on unprecedented extreme climate events

National Academy of Sciences (NAS) | April 24th, 2017

Efforts to understand the influence of historical global warming on individual extreme climate events have increased over the past decade. However, despite substa

Efforts to understand the influence of historical global warming on individual extreme climate events have increased over the past decade. However, despite substantial progress, events that are unprecedented in the local observational record remain a persistent challenge. Leveraging observations and a large climate model ensemble, we quantify uncertainty in the influence of global warming on the severity and probability of the historically hottest month, hottest day, driest year, and wettest 5-d period for different areas of the globe. We find that historical warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area. Our framework also suggests that the historical climate forcing has increased the probability of the driest year and wettest 5-d period at 57% and 41% of the observed area, respectively, although we note important caveats. For the most protracted hot and dry events, the strongest and most widespread contributions of anthropogenic climate forcing occur in the tropics, including increases in probability of at least a factor of 4 for the hottest month and at least a factor of 2 for the driest year. We also demonstrate the ability of our framework to systematically evaluate the role of dynamic and thermodynamic factors such as atmospheric circulation patterns and atmospheric water vapor, and find extremely high statistical confidence that anthropogenic forcing increased the probability of record-low Arctic sea ice extent.

Quantifying the Multiplier Effect of Southern California’s Turf Removal Rebate Program with Time-Series Aerial Imagery

American Water Resources Association (AWRA) | December 30th, 2020

From 2014 to 2016, water agencies in Southern California provided more than $350 million in rebates to owners who converted their turf to drought-tolerant landscaping. In

From 2014 to 2016, water agencies in Southern California provided more than $350 million in rebates to owners who converted their turf to drought-tolerant landscaping. In order to provide a fuller understanding of the water savings of this program, this study establishes that there was a behavioral contagion, or a multiplier effect, from rebate participants in the program. An imagery-based, time-series analysis of 20 Southern California neighborhoods from 2012 to 2018 was performed to detect what parcels converted their lawns without a rebate and how they were spatially correlated with rebate participants. This correlation was then used on almost 55,000 rebate participants to estimate the multiplier benefits for the entire program at 132%. For every 100 rebate participants, the multiplier effect helped contribute to an additional 132 parcels to convert to drought-tolerant landscaping. This methodology was compared with a previous study in the Irvine Ranch Water District providing similar results. This study provides the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California a better understanding of the water savings per rebate dollar of the Turf Removal Rebate Program as well as providing a robust approach for cities or water agencies to estimate the multiplier effect of their turf rebate programs.

Quantifying the Relationship Between Atmospheric River Origin Conditions and Landfall Temperature

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | October 11th, 2022

The temperature of landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) has direct implications for regional water resources. Compared to cool ARs, warm ARs can result in more surface ru

The temperature of landfalling atmospheric rivers (ARs) has direct implications for regional water resources. Compared to cool ARs, warm ARs can result in more surface runoff and flooding, less water availability via low snow accumulations and enhanced snowmelt, and greater challenges for storm forecasting and reservoir operations. Based on case studies, ARs with subtropical origin locations and warm origin conditions are assumed to be associated with warmer landfall temperatures—though, to date, this has not yet been demonstrated systematically. We analyze North Pacific ARs that made landfall along the West Coast of North America from 1980 to 2017. We find that ARs originating over the subtropical Pacific Ocean near Hawaii (“Pineapple Express”-type ARs) are indeed 1.5°C warmer and 2 kg/m2 moister in winter than ARs originating elsewhere. We extend this analysis for the full study population of ARs by quantifying AR origin conditions, including the spatial distribution of origin temperature, moisture content, and integrated vapor transport (IVT). We use fixed effects multivariate regression to quantify the relative influence of the origin conditions on landfall temperature. Our regression models show that AR origins with lower latitudes, longer AR lifetimes, and stronger IVT are associated with warmer landfall temperatures and that ARs that start warm generally stay warm. We also find that the phase of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation does not exhibit a consistent relationship with AR landfall temperature. Overall, our results partially affirm—yet also complicate—common assumptions about the role of different origin conditions in landfalling AR temperature.