Priority Margin Unit Stormwater Monitoring to Support Load Estimates of PCBs into San Leandro Bay and the Emeryville Crescent

San Francisco Estuary Institute (SFEI) | July 15th, 2022

The Priority Margin Unit Studies: The 2014 update of the RMP PCB Strategy called for a multi-year effort to implement the recommendations of the  PCB Synthesis Report (D

The Priority Margin Unit Studies: The 2014 update of the RMP PCB Strategy called for a multi-year effort to implement the recommendations of the  PCB Synthesis Report (Davis et al., 2014) including: 1. identifying margin units that are high priorities for management and monitoring, 2. developing conceptual models and mass budgets for margin units downstream of watersheds where management actions will occur, and 3. monitoring in these units as a performance measure. The goal of the effort was to inform the review and possible revision of the PCB TMDL and the reissuance of the Municipal Regional Permit for Stormwater (MRP).

Probabilistic Assessment of the Biotic Condition of Perennial Streams and Rivers in California

Central Valley Regional Water Quality Control Board (CVRWQCB) | August 22nd, 2006

States are required under the Clean Water Act §305(b) to report annually to Congress on the condition of their waterbodies, but satisfaction of this requirement has been

States are required under the Clean Water Act §305(b) to report annually to Congress on the condition of their waterbodies, but satisfaction of this requirement has been confounded by the lack of resources (both technical and financial) to adequately assess these waterbodies. Partly because of this limitation, most regions of the nation have been unable to answer the most basic questions about their water quality, even 35 years after the passage of the act. To address these constraints, the U.S. EPA established its Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP), a long term research program designed to develop the tools and techniques needed for cost-effectively answering the fundamental status and trends questions in the Clean Water Act. The EMAP studies are based on a probabilistic survey design in which each sampling location represents a known length of stream with known statistical confidence. This design permits the inference of stream conditions for large geographic regions with a relatively small investment in sampling. After completing an assessment of the condition of wadeable streams in the Middle-Atlantic states, the EPA initiated a similar assessment of streams in the western states (WEMAP), which included a high density of sites in California. Now that the first round of WEMAP studies has been completed, California has the ability to include the first statistically defensible condition assessments in its 305b reports. Because they provide a direct measure of the biotic integrity, bioassessment data are a key component of EMAP water quality monitoring. Bioassessment, the science of describing the ecological condition of waterbodies from the assemblages of organisms they contain, is well established as a valuable tool for water resource management (Karr 1981, Yoder and Rankin 1995, Barbour et al. 1996, Wright et al. 2000, Bailey et al. 2004). Because assemblages of aquatic organisms (e.g., fish, benthic macroinvertebrates (BMIs) and algae) are comprised of taxa that are differentially responsive to different environmental stressors, bioassessments provide a direct means of measuring compliance with the goal of biotic integrity stipulated under the Clean Water Act. Although comprehensive condition assessments will ultimately include assessments of the physical and chemical conditions of waterbodies, condition assessments based on bioassessment data can stand alone as effective measures of the ecological condition of the state’s waterbodies. There are many different approaches to translating a list of organisms present at a site into an assessment of its ecological condition (Wright et al. 1984, Kerans and Karr 1994, Hawkins et al. 2000, Van Sickle et al. 2005, Ode et al. 2005). We have demonstrated elsewhere (Rehn and Ode 2004, Rehn and Ode 2005) the use of BMI data to produce regional 305(b)-type stream condition assessments using multimetric techniques to calculate site condition scores. These regional assessments were possible because we had previously developed benthic indices of biotic integrity (B-IBIs) for northern and southern coastal California; statewide assessments require a tool for scoring sites that can be applied statewide. We present here a statewide condition assessment using predictive models based on the River Invertebrate Prediction and Classification System (RIVPACS, Wright 1984). Like multimetric approaches (Kerans and Karr 1994, Ode et al. 2005, Rehn and Ode 2005), predictive modeling techniques establish thresholds of ecological impairment based on a characterization of the biotic assemblages expected to occur under minimal human disturbance (Wright et al. 1984, 1989, 2000). However, predictive models compare assemblages at test sites to an expected taxonomic composition rather than expected metric values. Taxon-based models have seen widespread use since the first BMI models were created in Great Britain in the late 1970s (Norris and Georges 1993, Hawkins et al. 2000, Van Sickle et al. 2005) and have been promoted in the US (Hawkins et al. 2000, Hawkins and Carlisle 2001) as an alternative to the multimetric approach initially endorsed by the EPA (Barbour et al. 1999). For this analysis, we employed newly developed California RIVPACS models (C. Hawkins unpublished) that can be used to score sites throughout the state.

Probabilistic estimates of future changes in California temperature and precipitation using statistical and dynamical downscaling

Climate Dynamics (Springer) | March 30th, 2012

Sixteen global general circulation models were used to develop probabilistic projections of temperature (T) and precipitation (P) changes over California by the 2060s.

Sixteen global general circulation models were used to develop probabilistic projections of temperature (T) and precipitation (P) changes over California by the 2060s. The global models were downscaled with two statistical techniques and three nested dynamical regional climate models, although not all global models were downscaled with all techniques. Both monthly and daily timescale changes in T and P are addressed, the latter being important for a range of applications in energy use, water management, and agriculture. The T changes tend to agree more across downscaling techniques than the P changes. Year-to-year natural internal climate variability is roughly of similar magnitude to the projected T changes. In the monthly average, July temperatures shift enough that that the hottest July found in any simulation over the historical period becomes a modestly cool July in the future period. Januarys as cold as any found in the historical period are still found in the 2060s, but the median and maximum monthly average temperatures increase notably. Annual and seasonal P changes are small compared to interannual or intermodel variability. However, the annual change is composed of seasonally varying changes that are themselves much larger, but tend to cancel in the annual mean. Winters show modestly wetter conditions in the North of the state, while spring and autumn show less precipitation. The dynamical downscaling techniques project increasing precipitation in the Southeastern part of the state, which is influenced by the North American monsoon, a feature that is not captured by the statistical downscaling.

Probabilistic Subsidence Forecast Model for the California Aqueduct Subsidence Program, San Joaquin Valley, California: Revision 1 Design Report

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | October 4th, 2024

This report documents the development of a probabilistic subsidence forecast model for simulating a plausible range of future land-surface altitude conditions along the C

This report documents the development of a probabilistic subsidence forecast model for simulating a plausible range of future land-surface altitude conditions along the California Aqueduct (Aqueduct) and San Luis Canal in the San Joaquin Valley (SJV), with an emphasis on areas of localized subsidence (i.e., “subsidence bowls”). The model forecasts will be used to inform long-term planning and on-going analyses of potential investments needed to provide a suitable level of performance for the Aqueduct. The forecast model is primarily based on an empirical relationship between historical subsidence rates and annual water deliveries from the Central Valley Project (CVP) and State Water Project (SWP). A key assumption of the model is that the rate of groundwater overdraft, which contributes to loss of aquifer storage and permanent land subsidence, is correlated with CVP and SWP deliveries, and specifically with higher groundwater storage loss during severe drought years. Another key assumption is that the same rates of subsidence will continue even after groundwater levels decline and extraction may be coming from deeper parts of the aquifer system. If the geology and/or aquifer properties change dramatically in response, then these new conditions may have an unmodeled impact on future rates. 

Procedures to evaluate sea-level change: impacts, responses, and adaptation

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) | June 30th, 2014

Productive wetlands restored for carbon sequestration quickly become net CO2 sinks with site-level factors driving uptake variability

PLOS | March 25th, 2021

Inundated wetlands can potentially sequester substantial amounts of soil carbon (C) over the long-term because of slow decomposition and high primary productivity, partic

Inundated wetlands can potentially sequester substantial amounts of soil carbon (C) over the long-term because of slow decomposition and high primary productivity, particularly in climates with long growing seasons. Restoring such wetlands may provide one of several effective negative emission technologies to remove atmospheric CO2 and mitigate climate change. However, there remains considerable uncertainty whether these heterogeneous ecotones are consistent net C sinks and to what degree restoration and management methods affect C sequestration. Since wetland C dynamics are largely driven by climate, it is difficult to draw comparisons across regions. With many restored wetlands having different functional outcomes, we need to better understand the importance of site-specific conditions and how they change over time. We report on 21 site-years of C fluxes using eddy covariance measurements from five restored fresh to brackish wetlands in a Mediterranean climate. The wetlands ranged from 3 to 23 years after restoration and showed that several factors related to restoration methods and site conditions altered the magnitude of C sequestration by affecting vegetation cover and structure. Vegetation established within two years of re-flooding but followed different trajectories depending on design aspects, such as bathymetry-determined water levels, planting methods, and soil nutrients. A minimum of 55% vegetation cover was needed to become a net C sink, which most wetlands achieved once vegetation was established. Established wetlands had a high C sequestration efficiency (i.e. the ratio of net to gross ecosystem productivity) comparable to upland ecosystems but varied between years undergoing boom-bust growth cycles and C uptake strength was susceptible to disturbance events. We highlight the large C sequestration potential of productive inundated marshes, aided by restoration design and management targeted to maximise vegetation extent and minimise disturbance. These findings have important implications for wetland restoration, policy, and management practitioners.

Programmatic Agreement among the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and the California State Historic Preservation Officer and the Advisory Council on Historic Preservation and the Torres Martinez Desert Cahuilla Indians regarding Compliance with Section 106 of the National Historic Preservation Act for the Salton Sea Management Program

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) | April 12th, 2024

Progress on Incorporating Climate Change into Planning and Management of California’s Water Resources

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | July 9th, 2006

On June 1, 2005, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger issued Executive Order S-3-05 establishing greenhouse gas emissions targets for California and requiring biennial reports

On June 1, 2005, Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger issued Executive Order S-3-05 establishing greenhouse gas emissions targets for California and requiring biennial reports on potential climate change effects on several areas, including water resources. The Governor established a Climate Action Team (CAT) to guide the reporting efforts. The CAT selected four climate change scenarios that reflect two greenhouse gas emissions scenarios represented by two Global Climate Models (GCMs). The CAT requested that those four climate change scenarios be used whenever possible in the climate change reporting efforts. This report is the Department of Water Resources response to the Executive Order. This report describes progress made incorporating climate change into existing water resources planning and management tools and methodologies.

Progress Report: Subsidence in California, March 2015 – September 2016

Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) | February 7th, 2017

Subsidence caused by groundwater pumping in the Central Valley has been a problem for decades. Over the last few years, interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) h

Subsidence caused by groundwater pumping in the Central Valley has been a problem for decades. Over the last few years, interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) has been used from satellites and aircraft to produce maps of subsidence with sensitivity of fractions of an inch. For this study, we have obtained and analyzed data from the European Space Agency’s satellite-borne Sentinel-1A from the period March 2015 – September 2016 and the NASA airborne UAVSAR for the period March 2015 – June 2016, and produced maps of total subsidence from the two data sets. These data add to the earlier data processed from the Japanese PALSAR for 2006 – 2010, Canadian Radarsat-2 for the period May 2014 – January 2015, and UAVSAR for July 2013 - March 2015, for which subsidence measurements were reported previously (Farr et al., 2015). Here we also present results for the South-Central coast of California including Ventura, Oxnard, Santa Barbara and north to the San Joaquin Valley as well as the Santa Clara Valley from colleagues who have processed Sentinel-1A data covering March 2015 – March 2016. As multiple scenes were acquired during these periods, we can also produce time histories of subsidence at selected locations and transects showing how subsidence varies both spatially and temporally.

Progressive forest canopy water loss during the 2012–2015 California drought

National Academy of Sciences (NAS) | December 28th, 2015

The 2012–2015 drought has left California with severely reduced snowpack, soil moisture, ground water, and reservoir stocks, but the impact of this estimated mi

The 2012–2015 drought has left California with severely reduced snowpack, soil moisture, ground water, and reservoir stocks, but the impact of this estimated millennial-scale event on forest health is unknown. We used airborne laser-guided spectroscopy and satel- lite-based models to assess losses in canopy water content of California’s forests between 2011 and 2015. Approximately 10.6 million ha of forest containing up to 888 million large trees experienced measurable loss in canopy water content during this drought period. Severe canopy water losses of greater than 30% occurred over 1 million ha, affecting up to 58 million large trees. Our measurements exclude forests affected by fire between 2011 and 2015. If drought conditions continue or reoccur, even with temporary reprieves such as El Niño, we predict substantial future forest change.