Fourth National Climate Assessment Chapter 3: Water

U.S. Global Change Research Program | November 23rd, 2018

Significant changes in water quantity and quality are evident across the country. These changes, which are expected to persist, present an ongoing risk to coupled human

Significant changes in water quantity and quality are evident across the country. These changes, which are expected to persist, present an ongoing risk to coupled human and natural systems and related ecosystem services. Variable precipitation and rising temperature are intensifying droughts, increasing heavy downpours, and reducing snowpack. Reduced snow-to-rain ratios are leading to significant differences between the timing of water supply and demand. Groundwater depletion is exacerbating drought risk. Surface water quality is declining as water temperature increases and more frequent high-intensity rainfall events mobilize pollutants such as sediments and nutrients. Click here for the text of the full report.

Fragmented kelp forest canopies retain their ability to alter local seawater chemistry

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | July 20th, 2020

Kelp forests support some of the most productive and diverse ecosystems on Earth, and their ability to uptake dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) allows them to modify loca

Kelp forests support some of the most productive and diverse ecosystems on Earth, and their ability to uptake dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) allows them to modify local seawater chemistry, creating gradients in carbon, pH, and oxygen in their vicinity. By taking up both bicarbonate and CO2 as a carbon source for photosynthesis, kelp forests can act as carbon sinks, reducing nearby acidity and increasing dissolved oxygen; creating conditions conducive to calcification. Recent stressors, however, have reduced kelp forest canopies globally; converting once large and persistent forests to fragmented landscapes of small kelp patches. In a two-year study, we determined whether fragmented kelp patches retained the ability to alter local seawater chemistry. We found that diel fluctuations of multiple parameters of carbonate chemistry were greater in the kelp canopy than in the kelp benthos and in adjacent urchin barrens, consistent with metabolic activity by the kelp. Further, kelp fragments increased pH and aragonite saturation and decreased pCO 2 during the day to a similar degree as large, intact kelp forests. We conclude that small kelp patches could mitigate OA stress and serve as spatial and temporal refugia for canopy-dwelling organisms, though this effect is temporary and confined to daylight hours during the growing season.

Franks Tract Futures

Delta Stewardship Council (Delta Council) | April 26th, 2022

From Climate Traces to Climate Insights: Future Scenarios Analysis for the California Central Valley

California Department of Water Resources (DWR) | October 2nd, 2023

California Water Code Section 10004.6 requires the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) to quantify current and future water conditions in the state. This infor

California Water Code Section 10004.6 requires the California Department of Water Resources (DWR) to quantify current and future water conditions in the state. This information is published in the California Water Plan (Water Plan), which is updated every five years. Water managers and planners constantly face the challenges of planning for an uncertain future where the only constant is change. To address the potential future changes and mitigate the probable risks, water managers must consider and quantify uncertainties and their impacts on water system vulnerability. Although it is not possible to know for certain how population growth, land use decisions, climate, and other factors change over time, water planners must consider these system stressors in long-term planning to evaluate future risks and uncertainty. The Water Plan evaluates many alternative future scenarios as an integral part of its analytical approach to quantify system vulnerability under a range of population and urban growth scenarios, land use, and climate uncertainties.

From Climate-Change Spaghetti to Climate-Change Distributions for 21st Century California

University of California, Davis (UC Davis) | March 1st, 2005

The uncertainties associated with climate-change projections for California are unlikely to disappear anytime soon, and yet important long-term decisions will be needed t

The uncertainties associated with climate-change projections for California are unlikely to disappear anytime soon, and yet important long-term decisions will be needed to accommodate those potential changes. Projection uncertainties have typically been addressedby analysis of a few scenarios, chosen based on availability or to capture the extreme cases among available projections. However, by focusing on more com-mon projections rather than the most extreme projections (using a new resampling method), new insights into current projections emerge: (1) uncertainties associated with future greenhouse-gas emissions are comparable with the differences among climate models, so that neither source of uncertainties should be neglected or underrepresented; (2) twenty-first century temperature projections spread more, overall, than do precipitation scenarios; (3) projections of extremely wet futures for California are true outliers among current projections; and (4) current projections that are warmest tend, overall, to yield a moderately drier California, while the cooler projections yield a some-what wetter future. The resampling approach appliedin this paper also provides a natural opportunity to objectively incorporate measures of model skill and the likelihoods of various emission scenarios into future assessments.

From the extreme to the mean: Acceleration and tipping points of coastal inundation from sea level rise

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | December 18th, 2014

Relative sea level rise (RSLR) has driven large increases in annual water level exceedances (duration and frequency) above minor (nuisance level) coastal flooding elevat

Relative sea level rise (RSLR) has driven large increases in annual water level exceedances (duration and frequency) above minor (nuisance level) coastal flooding elevation thresholds established by the National Weather Service (NWS) at U.S. tide gauges over the last half-century. For threshold levels below 0.5 m above high tide, the rates of annual exceedances are accelerating along the U.S. East and Gulf Coasts, primarily from evolution of tidal water level distributions to higher elevations impinging on the flood threshold. These accelerations are quantified in terms of the local RSLR rate and tidal range through multiple regression analysis. Along the U.S. West Coast, annual exceedance rates are linearly increasing, complicated by sharp punctuations in RSLR anomalies during El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases, and we account for annual exceedance variability along the U.S. West and East Coasts from ENSO forcing. Projections of annual exceedances above local NWS nuisance levels at U.S. tide gauges are estimated by shifting probability estimates of daily maximum water levels over a contemporary 5-year period following probabilistic RSLR projections of Koppet al.(2014) for representative concentration pathways(RCP) 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5. We suggest a tipping point for coastal inundation (30 days/per year with a threshold exceedance) based on the evolution of exceedance probabilities. Under forcing associated with the local-median projections of RSLR, the majority of locations surpass the tipping point over the next several decades regardless of specific RCP.

Future Atmospheric Rivers and Impacts on Precipitation: Overview of the ARTMIP Tier 2 High-Resolution Global Warming Experiment

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | March 14th, 2023

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long and narrow weather features often referred to as “rivers in the sky.” They often transport water from lower latitudes to higher lati

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are long and narrow weather features often referred to as “rivers in the sky.” They often transport water from lower latitudes to higher latitudes typically across climate zones and produce precipitation necessary for local climates. Understanding ARs in a warming climate is challenging because of the variety of ways an AR can be defined on gridded data sets. Unlike weather features such as tropical cyclones where identification methodologies are similar, algorithms that determine the characteristics of ARs vary depending on the science question posed. Because there is no real consensus on AR identification methodology, we aim to quantify the algorithmic uncertainty in AR metrics and precipitation. We compare 16 different ways of defining an AR on gridded data sets and present the range of possibilities in which an AR could change under global warming. Generally, ARs are projected to increase but the amount of that increase is a function of the algorithm. Across all algorithms and focus regions, AR precipitation is projected to become more extreme.

Future Changes in Global Atmospheric Rivers Projected by CMIP6 Models

American Geophysical Union (AGU) | January 31st, 2024

Future dryness in the southwest US and the hydrology of the early 21st century drought

National Academy of Sciences (NAS) | December 14th, 2010

Recently the Southwest has experienced a spate of dryness, which presents a challenge to the sustainability of current water use by human and natural systems in

Recently the Southwest has experienced a spate of dryness, which presents a challenge to the sustainability of current water use by human and natural systems in the region. In the Colorado River Basin, the early 21st century drought has been the most extreme in over a century of Colorado River flows, and might occur in any given century with probability of only 60%. However, hydrological model runs from downscaled Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment climate change simulations suggest that the region is likely to become drier and experience more severe droughts than this. In the latter half of the 21st century the models produced considerably greater drought activity, parti- cularly in the Colorado River Basin, as judged from soil moisture anomalies and other hydrological measures. As in the historical record, most of the simulated extreme droughts build up and per- sist over many years. Durations of depleted soil moisture over the historical record ranged from 4 to 10 years, but in the 21st century simulations, some of the dry events persisted for 12 years or more. Summers during the observed early 21st century drought were re- markably warm, a feature also evident in many simulated droughts of the 21st century. These severe future droughts are aggravated by enhanced, globally warmed temperatures that reduce spring snowpack and late spring and summer soil moisture. As the climate continues to warm and soil moisture deficits accumulate beyond historical levels, the model simulations suggest that sustaining water supplies in parts of the Southwest will be a challenge.

Future increase in extreme El Niño supported by past glacial changes

Nature Portfolio (Springer Nature) | September 25th, 2024